Standard disclaimer I have not played poker for serious money in about a decade and the meta may have shifted dramatically while this dinosaur is mentally stuck in tar.
Hand 1:
I really think you are playing hands for the sake of playing hands. Calling an UTG raise with KQ without any read other than he's probably tight is a disaster in the making in the long run. It's not taking the stand, it's taking a stand with a hand that is very specifically dominated by hisutg range. I'm much happier with 76 than KQ in spots like this.
Better question is, what do you do if any other card than the Q pops on the river? What percentage of the time do you think you have the best hand on the flop? What if it's an ace or a heart? What do you do in any of those spots if he jams or checks? Maybe I have filted vision here, but I'm seeing a pattern where the hands you share are getting into awkward spots and then the jesus card comes at the river to bail you out.
Flatting a large UTG raise with a dominated hand is a great move against a recreational player. By the looks of it you have at least 2 of them at the table so I'd gladly just fold here and try to get in a hand with one of them. There's no reason to play this hand without a read and the scant information you do have suggests he's both nitty and capable.
My winrate increased dramatically when I stopped playing to beat my opponent but rather choosing to enter a pot because it was a favorable situation due to either the villain being grossly incompetent or I had a range/positional advantage. Here you have a range advantage but are playing a likely competent player with holdings easily dominated by his own. I would not at all be surprised if you jammed here and he flips over AQ.
If I did choose to play this hand against this specific villain, which I'm not, but let's say my fold button was broken, I'm 3betting pre instead of flatting because it better defines his range while also disguising my own.
Hand 2:
Good job getting suited queens, that's harder than flopping quads!
Never calling here for an SPR <1. Although it reeks of a squeeze play, you gotta give credit for some kind of hand given the sheer volume of people in the pot. It's really about the variance you're willing to go with. You 100% will get called here by at least 1 dude and assuming a semibluff (or more likely not understanding relative hand value) you're looking at about 60-70% equity.
If villain is isolated to just pure AK/AA/KK then you still have 40% equity. Obviously not ideal considering you're only in for 3bb but that's pretty good equity for a doomsday outcome. You can't put people on a range of AA, that's only going to force you to overfold and make bad decisions, but you can certaintly narrow it to that holy trinity with regularity.
Given a look around the table at the large stacks and single hand, it's a valid theory this is a very splashy table so I'm personally putting my stack in and hoping for the best. Having said that, a fold is probably the "pro" move here and just pay those 3bb to get some good information on the sidelines of just what these guys are capable with. And besides, you know if he calls and flips over A7o he's going to get there anyway
Hand 3:
This is a pretty awkward spot. Really curious what a solver would say here.
As played, I don't see how you can tell him "I don't have the ace" by checking there when you know that means he's going to rep the ace whether or not he has it. I'm more concerned about the king than the ace where he's accidentally bluffing with the best hand as I agree he's likely to raise you pre with any A in BvB.
With 99-QQ I would continue to bet turn with smallish sizing (5-6.5) and fold to a large raise. Then I'd check any non 8 river and turn my hand into a bluff catcher but really just hoping for a cheap showdown.
With A,x I'm actually playing how you played it, inviting him to bet it. You're never getting a better ace from this sort of player to fold here so you may as well widen his range to include non aces as bluffs. That's a fist bump call with A,x. I think a lot of the time he flips over something like T7/K8/J5 etc.
Is the VPIP guy aggro pre or does he limp a lot? If he is aggro i'm just completing pre, hoping he bumps it and then raising it. Playing OOP with this sort of player and holdings like 99 I either want a very small pot or a large one. As played, I'd also check/raise that flop a bit instead of raising because there's a whole bunch of turn cards that can scare you off since his range is super wide and he'll be difficult to hand read as a result.
Last edited by rickroll; 08-14-2020 at 03:48 AM.