Tough one but against a spazzy button clicker who checked back the turn I'm calling

calling too. but also betting river most the time.

tyty gentleman, I appreciate the feedback

haha I think I butchered this hand in hindsight, hard to say

I tank fold bc sizing, this feels like a spot where I’ve “made” sooooo much $ (oxymoron?) since the start of the thread just clicking fold/trusting my intuition over the read vs ob river jam w near top of range

V didn’t show, but typed “good fold” in the chat

then again V ended up spewing off his stack with bottom pear a few orbits later so who knows lmao

i play bad

Risk Tolerance

Say you had a 10k roll that’s not replenishable. Your hourly is around $50. Expenses covered indefinitely.

What’s the lowest amount of equity you, personally, would need to flip for half of it?

How much more eq would you need at 100K, to flip 50K?

How about 1M, to flip 500K?

Subscribing to see the answers to this . I can't really put a finger on what the exact equity would be, but I'd be super conservative, because the demotivating and debilitating effect of having to "grind it back" would make a missed flip a double loss.

e: the immediate effect to ones hourly with an increase of 1.5x to the br vs losing half of it is of course just a quick mafs question.

At 10k and 100k I'd need serious equity, at least 65ish %.

At 1m, even if I lose I'm left with a huge roll that I wouldn't know what to do with. So I'd only need like 55% equity.

I'm assuming some people haven't heard of Kelly Criterion. 75%. I'd probably be slightly more aggressive than that though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Welcome!

And ty for sharing your thoughts.

No right answers for any of these questions if that wasn't clear. I like playing around with a variance calculator and excel a bit for this kind of problem to relax occasionally- but didn't come to any extraordinary conclusions wrt this specific question

Ty for sharing!

Keep in mind that even if you can't add to it in this hypothetical, you can take out of the roll, if that wasn't implied. So losing the 500k would also be pretty treacherous, just in a different way. Given it's not quite "set for life' kind of money (for many of the posters)

No right answers though!

Ty for sharing, sir!


Week has started off slow, the 2-3 hours a sleep a night in May/June catching up with me slightly.

My mom likes watching the clippers/lakers and basketball (as do I), so I thought I'd surprise her with some nice seats to game 6 of clips-jazz this Friday night. She'll be very happy!

i wish the kawhi news came out a bit earlier as I could've gotten floor seats today for the price I paid yesterday but no biggie, just grateful to be going. should be a fun time

Also been playing some 1k live. Boring, but just happy to be there

I've heard of the Kelly criterion but that's more if you are looking for a long term betting strategy, this type of thing will never pop up again. Anyway, raw mathematics is pretty irrelevant considering this is more of a utility theory problem.

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200nl/400nl/800nl

Straddle is good reg.

Cold caller is unknown.

Main V is an extremely aggro reg, but seems competent enough to win/not be spewing all over the place. Very tough to play against. Have seen V pile missed FD for 200bb

$800E

OTTH

Pre-flop: Hero RFI $24 MP with K J. V calls in LP. Main V 3b SB $110. Hero calls. Other V folds.

Flop ($256): K 7 6. V c-bets $85. V calls.

Turn ($425): K 7 6 2. V continues $280. Hero calls.

River ($986): K 7 6 2 4. V jams $325. Hero calls.

Thoughts?

Posting this as a line check as i think turn (not river) is the main decision point.

It’s a little tricky as the sizing scheme seems very valuey given V can’t imagine I’m clicking fold w value often otr-- however I’ve seen something similar from V as a bluff (just less drastic).

Against the described villain I suspect you probably have to call when you don't have a spade. Pretty sure this is a board he should be bluffing quite often due to AK advantage

ty for the feedback!

in this particular spot vs the described V and stack sizes at hand- maybe there is some merit to jamming turn?

I'd say people probably don't bluff enough here, putting 325 into 986. You are getting a fantastic price but I'd say most, especially weaker regs aren't putting in the bluffs here just not expecting to get many folds. It's probably neutral EV in theory but he does have AA, AK, KK, maybe KQ for value. I'd say it's a call in theory but a fold vs. a standard app regular at the midstakes.

ty for the feedback!

agreed

200nl

V is a fun player. Likes putting chips in the pot, no showdowns though

$190E

OTTH

Pre-flop: Hero RFI $6 CO with A 6. V 3b $19 BB. Hero calls.

Flop ($44): J 8 6. V c-bets $25. Hero calls.

Turn ($94): J 8 6 A. V continues $42.

Hero? (call v raise) $156 behind

I don’t think we want to fold any suited aces pre IP vs <10bb oop 3b from this player type

Is flop call standard? I always just fold it. Fun players barrel any turn and then I have to fold anyway. I shove turn expecting him to call all fds.

pre is a clear fold in theory, no idea on this specific player. If you thought he was spewey preflop then he's spewey postflop, meaning that I would fold flop. The only good cards are a 6 and an ace, if he is always barreling either you have to call him down with bottom pair or fold 90% of turns. OTT if you say he's spewey, then let him spew and just call.

would play the same (only vs player type as described). Definitely would call turn too assuming they're blast-happy. Not like you achieve anything by shoving, other than you're wary of scare cards killing action, but that would contradict your reasoning for preflop call vs spasher

ty for the feedback!

yeah, flop is straightforward.

I like your line of thinking, sir.

If we’re looking to fold pairs we would start off with under-pairs and hands like 10 10, 9 9 before this.

that heuristic applies in a lot of spots and is an important one to be aware of

ty for the feedback!

agreed, obviously trade offs with both lines.

yeah, wrt preflop I try to adjust situationally based on sizing, config, V, etc. as much as possible. really boosts the win-rate quite drastically.

although this specific situation probably marginal once you factor in rake and what not

Thanks! Yeah, the action killing rivers + equity denial etc

——
did a few hours of solver work, a couple of hours of mental game work, and played a short session where I won a few buyins

now off to the clipper game, should be a fun time w mom

I would jam turn with both KJ and A6.

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cut their lead from 22 to 6!!!

absolutely wild in here, playoff atmosphere

full capacity

took the lead!

up by 7!

Greatest game of the playoffs

holdddddd