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From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard

07-29-2017 , 11:56 AM
Quick rough math

Villain need to be right like ~35% of time so thats like 7:4 odds and hero to be profitable need to win like ~60% thats 2:3( he should bluf like 40% roughly) lets say for simplicity for every 3 value combos hero should have 2 blufs, if we dont consider icm,
So if only value is 16xQT + 3xJJ =18 value combos we have 12 total QQ/tt natural bluf combos as hand is played on streets so thats like 3:2 ratio
when vilain have Q/T is 15 value and 9 bluff and that is 3:1,8 ratio

So rough math is if hero is only betting for value on river 1.5xpot QT/JJ and blufing qq/tt he has correct frequency and is indifferent if villain will call or not he is at worse break even

If villain has Q/T in his hand and hero is betting same ranges as bluff and value on river, hero river range in this case is slightly % wise more toward value ( underblufing)
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
07-29-2017 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Re8uZ
I do not agree on this,about blockers to nuts part

imo having blokers to hero nuts combos in this spot is actualy bloking also hero's bluff combos ( for ex having Q is bloking like 25% of hero QT combos but also bloking 50% of QQ combos, 40%+ of QJ combos, plus some random Qxs that hero decide to blast out) if villain doesnt think that hero is shoving KJ on river and probably never checks behind set,2 pairs, AT+ vs 2 players and heros value is only JJ/QT on river imo actualy not having Q/T/J in that order in your hand is better (because is true that we dont block hero value but we are also unblocking all the bluff combos too)
Might as well call your whole range on riv then
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
07-29-2017 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big_Mick00
Thing is, QT will play like this always. But we will should not use TT/QJ/QQ as a bluff at 100% freq so there are more value combos then hands that turn into bluffs. To make it easy lets just say only straights jam river for pot

so 16 combos of QT at 100%. Lets use QJ and TT as bluffs, QJ block 2p combos and straights which is better hand to bluff that QQ i think.

If we are always bluffing JQ/TT then we should call as we are overbluffing, 6 combos TT, 9 combos QJ compared to 16 value. But given there PSB (not sure how much exaclty but went with that) behind we want 2:1 value to bluff combos.

Dont have PIO now so just going into flopzilla, AQ has 36% here, A9 has 33.6, A4 (2p) has 33.6. If you look close when we have AQ villains has the straight 2.4% less.




/ too much strat
Exactly, well put and def too much strat
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
07-29-2017 , 01:10 PM
@Big_Mick00 we look at both ranges differently
as i said
i can assume that hero is almost never checking behind AT+,2 pair, set on flop
i can also assume that villain will very rarely, if ever, just call vs SB small lead with sets, 2pairs = villain range on turn is imo basically Ax, one pair + draw, combo draw(T9cc/Qxc)

so having blocker to 2 pairs (JQ) as bluff in hero range doesnt do much because we assume that villain rarely, if ever as played, has 2 pairs combos (but we do block his calling/drawing range KQ/QJ/JT/QXcc/JXcc etc) so i think QQ/TT are way better combos to bluf because we are blocking nuts combos that villain has in his range as played on turn

so if our assumption are correct that villain as played on turn is raising 2 pairs/sets combos and just calling all his nuts combos + all his Ax, one pair + draw, combo draw = so if villain is calling smth like this on turn
Spoiler:
(ATs-A4s,A2s,KQs,QTs+,JTs,Qc9c,Jc9c,Tc9c,Qc8c,Jc8c,Tc8c ,Qc7c,Jc7c,Tc7c,Qc6c,Jc6c,Tc6c,Qc5c,Jc5c,Tc5c,Qc4c ,Jc4c,Tc4c,Qc3c,Jc3c,Tc3c,Qc2c,Jc2c,Tc2c,ATo-A4o,A2o,KQo,QTo+,JTo)
thats like 171 combos/155+ 16nuts (10%nuts range)
having for ex QsJs reduce this to 154/ 146+12(8% nuts range)
while having QsQh/TsTh reduce this to 151/143+8 (5% nuts range)
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
07-29-2017 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGoliath
Might as well call your whole range on riv then
for break even CEV we can actually call all 1pair+ of our range on river that dont have T/Q as kicker if hero is betting all QQ/TT/JJ/QT
Spoiler:
[FONT=courier new][SIZE=12]
Board: 3AK*J*4
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****42.44%**39.87%***2.57%*{ A9s-A4s, A2s, QTs, A9o-A4o, A2o, QTo }
BB*****57.56%**54.98%***2.57%*{ QQ-TT, QTs, QTo }
[/SIZE][/FONT]


villain need 37% for break even call on river. obv folding Jx because we cant beat QQ/and KQ/KT because we are blocking villain bluffing range


edit #1 forgot to put KT in previous post as calin hand in villain range but w/e
#2 btw i dont think that villain has AQ+TT+ very often if ever in his flating preflop range with SB in

Last edited by Re8uZ; 07-29-2017 at 01:34 PM.
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
07-31-2017 , 01:07 AM
haha i appreciate all of your thoughts guys this hand definitely stirred the pot a little bit im gonna look more into them tomorrow when im far less oi (had a rough day today) from an exploitative standpoint if he never folds i shold just never bluff but im really not too upset when he picks off this bluff because i know when i have Q10/nut range i get paid ez and i exploit him for over calling (as long as 1010 is my only bluff or we)
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
07-31-2017 , 01:47 AM
Health:

Workouts Completed this week: (4/4)
Times leaving diet guidelines: 4
20 Minute Meditation Session: 2/7
Books Read: 0/1
Body Weight +/-: -24 lbs. (since beginning of year)

Wealth:

Training Videos Watched: 0/1
Hours in the lab: 0/2
Sessions played: 4/4
Hours put into researching new avenues of revenue generation:2
Weekly Proft: -3 691
Yearly Profit: +31 404
Live Poker Profit This Year: +9 363

Book Review: I was supposed to read "Think and Grow Rich" this week. Unfortunately, I got caught up in reading a book I already finished last year. Will read this week (FO REAL THIS TIME)

Hands:

way too oi poker atm to think about the online grind. I guess I can go over one or two hands I played in live tournament yesterday. was getting late into day 1 probably about 25% of the field remaining. older american guy sits to my right and eventually says he knows who i am etc. seems to be playing relatively ok and i didnt see anything overly out of line. i had ~70k @ bb 3k to start the hand (he had me covered). folds to him in SB and he makes it 10k...i have A3o and decided to call. I think jamming might be ok when readless here but I think folding or calling are best definitely. Flop 235. he c bets 12k into ~25k. I jam ~20bbs which I think is ok. I block AA/a lot of his nut range/can fold out better Ax/fold out all his bluffs/usually have gutshot+pair+over card outs which probably prints if he ever finds folds or folds bluffs. anyways he called with kings and i bricked.

Random Rant of the Week

Well guys I don't know what to say really. I'm sitting here withered as **** @ approximately 1:20 AM. I grinded hard all day and basically won 0 all ins and built zero stacks. Literally nothing went my way. I played a solid focused game and don't regret that. Just feels gross bricking day after day. On the bright side other areas of my life have really taken a turn for the better. Today was my second day on the online dating app grind and already booked 2 dates for this week. Have been feeling motivated in the gym and staying reasonably disciplined with nutrition. It's weird how I can't have all these things going their best at once...always one category has to be struggling

Health, Wealth, Relationships, Happiness. The 4 pillars of the good life that I mentioned at the start of this year. All 4 of these categories have seen big improvements through 2017 and will continue to see big improvements.

Anyways, WTF do I feel like ranting about this week? Feels bad having 0 pre-meditated material and I really don't want to put jargon of no meaning down here. BUT this is the random rant of the week and need not be anything...here we go...acapella.

Earlier this week I went to watch the Canadian Open Golf tournament in Oakville with my dad. It was definitely cool to see some of the best golfers in the world in person. What seems amazing to me is the amount of spot light that those guys receive (or any professional athlete) for their ability to play a sport. When you really think about it...isn't it kind of weird that we idolize athletes? They're just people like us who are elite in a game or sport. That sport doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of life. It's just a game created by humans for their own amusement.

Why do most people suck at golf? Well, this has 0 proof and it's just my own thinking. When you talk to most people on the golf course they may have taken somewhere between 0 and 10 golf lessons in their lives. The only time they hit the driving range is probably to warm up for a round, the only time they hit the putting green is to warm up for a round. What's funny about this is that the game of golf is one of repetition and ability to adapt to certain scenarios. For example wind, speed of greens, lie etc...Most people who play the game only hit golf balls when it is their turn in a game of golf. They barely practise! Let's say they take 90 strokes in a round of golf. Each golf swing takes approximately 5 seconds which equals approximately 7.5 minutes per game in the act of swinging or hitting the ball. A round might take 4 hours and only 7.5 minutes is actually spent playing the game.

What this brings me to is efficiency. The best golfers in the world are insanely efficient in their study and practise of the game. They probably hit a thousand golf balls a week and have video recording of everything along with a personalized coach. Every move they make is extremely calculated and down to a science. Yes, they may have god given talents but I think their eliteness is achieved through efficient and persistent practise.

Golf Tip: So I've been taking lessons on and off since April and the very first thing my instructor showed me was that I had no routine. How can you expect consistency if you are a different (even micro distance makes big diff) distance from the ball each time? You need to find a way that you hit the ball well in each of the millions of scenarios and make it easy to replicate/adjust.

I was gonna apply this all to poker etc but I'm falling asleep and so fkn oi atm. Been a long week and have been working hard. Will be cool this week to go on a couple dates and keep on the gym grind. Might take a break from online poker this week and give the live streets a shot. As for the job opportunity I'll elaborate on that later this week when I'm feeling a little more upbeat.

Thanks for reading to all the homeys and thats for the amazing support from y'all this far. 5 months to go.


"Tragedy in life normally comes with betrayal and compromise, and trading on your integrity and not having dignity in life. That's really where failure comes." -Tom Cochrane
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-02-2017 , 03:05 AM
Just went out for my nightly walk and that hasn't instilled drowsiness. Decided I'm going to write in here in part to lull me to sleep and in part because I have a mild urge to write.

First, I'll talk about my session today. Grinded roughly 12 hours and slugged some good volume. My game was on point and forcing myself to keep registering was not an issue. I wish I could just have that A+ mindset every session. I definitely think that one of my strong suits in poker would be my mental game. That being said, I think it's also because I've seen millions of hands and I almost always know my default ranges/it's very easy to identify in game if I'm making a big mistake. Today was also the first day in many weeks where I've felt that I've ran pretty pretty good. Ended up shipping the hot 27 for about 2.1k and 5th in BB 162 for about 1500. Overall, great day.

As tomorrow I have nothing to do until the evening I want to take the day to clean my condo thoroughly/get groceries/do laundry and all that jazz. Will be back on the grind again Thursday. Without further holdup, let's talk about some random ****!

Some Poker Thoughts:

We all know that poker in 2017 has become a dog eat dog rat race. It's absurd how good even weaker players have gotten in the last few years. With all of the advancements in: coaching, training videos, twitch content, solvers, huds whilst the main poker operator has increased rake, decreased rakeback, and decreased reg edge through format changes...there are more guys fighting for a piece of a smaller pie.

I think in poker and in life there are so many thin edges that we can find on a day to day basis. I think the following are widely known but not practised nearly enough...here is a few thing edges in poker:

1. Stalling for pay jumps and min cashes. Sometimes it's a matter of waiting a few seconds to go all-in when you are short stack to get a bump of as little as 5$ in pay and sometimes it's a matter of stalling for a few orbits in order to min cash a bigger turbo/satelite when you are on 8bbs. I really hate to make guys more aware of this because it's bad for the games but hey, it's a dog eat dog world right Imagine if you could ladder on average 5$ extra just by stalling a little bit every time you cash...over hundreds/thousands of cashes this adds up to heaps.

2. Adding in smaller turbos or games towards the end of your session. If you are sitting there 1 tabling the big 22 with heaps and 50 left it makes a lot of sense to flick in 2-3 quicker structure games where you can autopilot and increase your hourly substantially (as long as you don't get distracted from your main tourney then it becomes destructive). For example if you can flick in 2 turbos where you make 4$/game you can increase your hourly by 5$ or something. Again, miniscule in the short run...massive in the long run.

3. Finding good games. This is quite obvious. Find games where your ROI is the highest. Sometimes it's a matter of playing on a site with a little worse software and smaller prize pools.

I could probably think of a few more but that is good for now I think. Just remember that little gains compound in the long run to large amounts.

Lastly, I wanted to suggest one thing that I think is not even a thin edge in real life...it is a massive edge.

As technology and communication has advanced so rapidly over the past 20 years I really think life as we know it has changed even more drastically than we think. So much of our communication is done through screens like computers and cell phones. Dating apps have taken young people by storm. Never have we been able to keep in touch with so many people or have access to so many people in history. As we are glued to our screens and the majority of our communication often being digital...I think a big gap has opened that people are unaware of.

When our parents grew up if they wanted to ask a girl on a date they would have to talk to her in person/break the ice and eventually muster up the courage to ask the other person out. Although it wasn't as big of a deal...they were forced to communicate face to face their whole lives. Confrontations, conversations, greetings, fostering relationships etc was all done face to face. Inherently, they developed superior communication and people skills.

I truly think that one of the biggest edges for our generation is in communication. I have seen some absolute wizards of this skill acquire some amazing deals/jobs/relationships just because they are superior at networking and communication. So much of our generation completely sucks at this skill and by leaving our comfort zone we can gain a massive edge in the long run. In business, in relationships, and in life.

Personally, my communication skills are fairly weak in some circumstances, downright terrible in others, and relatively mediocre-strong in some. I definitely have a predisposition to be a poor communicator but it won't stop me from improving

Some ideas: join ToastMasters, force yourself into social discomfort through exercises, give yourself challenges (ie talk to 10 strangers), meditation, etc. Would love to hear any other suggestions.

Anyways guys, that did the job of putting me to sleep. Let's work hard the rest of this week and enjoy every minute of it. GN/GL.
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-03-2017 , 11:19 PM
Had a meh session today. Played ok and had some deeps but lost some annoying hands deep. Here's a few interesting ones:

https://www.boomplayer.com/24796255_A9061262DB
so i was blasting away @ 50z tonight when i was bored. rofl hand especially cuz villain slow rolled turn. prob a huge blast especially cuz everyone is an absurd nit in that pool lol

https://www.boomplayer.com/24796224_84B9C0722A
once in a while even the biggest nits gotta blast off

https://www.boomplayer.com/24792932_7B5AEAC352
don't think blockers are overly relevant here (if at all) but i think it's good to have some bluffs in this spot to protect us from getting relentlessly value bet otr

https://www.boomplayer.com/24792096_6B68A86D7F
weird hand i should prob just bet/bet/bet. think this line is better with a spade in my hand.

https://www.boomplayer.com/24775593_6EFED4827B
very weird hand vs nitty russian reg, maybe i should jsut fold pre


Think I might go flick some live cash games in Niagara Falls tomorrow (possibly get Airbnb all weekend). I don't know about you guys but whenever I enter a casino (no matter where) I always get a rather melancholic feeling of emptiness. At the same time I feel like live games might be my final frontier in poker as it seems most formats online are drying up. If I do end up going I want to note a few of my live cash game weaknesses in the past which I want to cement in my brain to fix:

-Playing too many hands
-Worrying about being balanced vs. fish
-When guys are "telling you they have a hand" they usually have it and its necessary to avoid paying them out...i reward them way too often.
-Getting tilted and leaving session early. It's tough when you lose a buy in or get stuck a bit psychologically because you view it as needing to get unstuck.
-Bluffing too much vs stations.

I'll keep y'all posted with how/if it goes. Should be back for a session Sunday online at the very least unless live goes very well. Peace!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM13JMhDIbM
I'll leave ya with a good track
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-04-2017 , 12:10 AM
Those 50z hands were pretty funny to watch. U get an A+ for your level of <3.

88 hands looks fine, JJ I'm definitely betting 875 on the turn and JJ in the $162 Bounty Builder looks fine.

I do relate to your feeling of emptiness when sitting inside a casino, from the bad smell to walking by the people playing the slot machines, it is just a depressing atmosphere and a rough place to have to grind in a few times a week if you play live poker for a living.

Have fun in Niagara Falls and I'd recommend putting those weaknesses in your notes on your phone so you can look down at them before and during your session and keep them in mind!
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-05-2017 , 12:11 AM
thanks trent.

just got home from my ~6 hour session and feeling good. was extremely calm and collected today from all of the negative stimuli that a live session entails. From the 2 hour drive, sitting in traffic, losing big pots/winning big pots, listening to dolts tell me how to play my hand etc...didn't lose my cool once and made solid calculated decisions (other than getting 2 Jr. BCs from Wendy's on the way home. Ended up +900~ on the session. Will talk about the 3 biggest/most interesting hands below:

So the day started @ 1/3 (that was all that was running) and I was sat with an extremely loose villain. This was by far the most aggro i've seen at a 1/3 or 2/5 game in years. Was planning to just sit to his left all day and then to my fortune he was also on the interest list for 2/5 when that got going and was also to my right there.

Hand 1 @ 2/5: I open 78s to 15 from EP, co calls, BB (who is the aggro guy) squeezes to 40...i call and co calls (pot is about 125)... FLOP: J74sxx....BB leads 50...i call co folds (pot 225) TURN: 7...he checks i check....river is A and he goes all in for about 225...i call and he mucks.

Hand 2 @ 2/5: This one really made me think and I was in a super gross spot OTR. PREFLOP: loose ish reg opens to 20 from EP...blaster 3 bets to 65....I hold AA and for some reason decided to peel....loose reg also peels....flop is 258r....blaster bets 150 I call reg folds. TURN: 5...check check RIVER: 9...he jams all in (for 900$) i tank forever, he calls clock, i decide to call and he mucks.

Hand 3 @ 2/5: This was pretty bad by me i reckon. Loose reg opens to 20 from co...i 3 bet AQo to 60 from SB....BB calls....opener calls....FLOP: Q96r I c bet 110, BB folds, opener raises to 240...I call. TURN: Q...he jams all in for roughly 500....I puke and decide to call. He had 66.

I just want to talk about why this is definitely a fold. First of all I think in live games 3 bets in general are perceived as quite strong, let alone from SB and the general perception is that people don't fold over pairs on dry boards ever. From a theoretical perspective I think this is my best bluff catcher other than 99 as it possibly beats some worse hands for value and doesn't block any of his potential bluffs. The issue when he raises the flop is my hand is quite vulnerable vs a villain that is seldom bluffing (because he perceives my range as super strong and no1 tries to bluff out overpairs)...basically I'm prob dead so often on flop and if he is bluffing he prob follows through on turn or w/e where I can't defend again prob.Pretty dumb that he raises flop here and just gives me a chance to get away with most of my range. I easily fold over pairs on turn too and his jam basically just stacks AQ i think or maybe KQ if i ever have that.

Long story short I HATE donating to guys that never have bluffs and I think long term ROI is severely impacted if we can't make these exploit folds.

Anyways, I think I'm gonna head back there again tomorrow and do the same routine as today. The game is so fkn good and I really think I need to make more of an effort to go in the future. Need to find a way to combat the drive time/gas $ because that stuff is very detrimental to bottom line. Perhaps I car pool there with a friend or 2 and get an Airbnb for a couple days at a time.


Sorry for the rant boys wanted to talk about a few hands from tonight so I can clear them out of my head (the AQ one has been on loop in my brain for hours). GN and see you sunday for weekly update.
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-05-2017 , 06:38 AM
Why u slowroll with AA, not cool ��
AQ i think we can ch on that flop sometimes as we should with AK/KK+ sometimes, obv with intention to c/r, as played is kinda tough spot because i just dont expect people to raise sets on dry boards inp on flop ( but in live poker people just do that very often) so i guess is soul read time
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-05-2017 , 09:37 AM
Enjoyable thread as always, good mix of strat and rants.

I recently got into crypto as well. Very interesting but overwhelming marketplace and im enjoying learning about it. I really do think it will be the future and its nice to put time and effort into something other than poker.
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-06-2017 , 01:45 AM
@re8uz: well i didnt mention this villain had been 3 betting my EP opens out of the BB the last 3 times and showed down hands like 107s etc...i really dont think its a snap when he 2x pot jams river...quite a tough spot and they just always seem to have it

@ superslug: thanks man. i've been in the lab a little bit with investing this week and will prob report back i decide on some things


just got home from live session. was sorta annoying cuz i was up like 300ish at one point and ended up leaving down 100. game got pretty deep and i was running really bad in some big pots. couple flops/turns/rivers go differently and could have easy been up 1k again.towards the end of my session was deviating A LOT from what i would call my A game. several pots where I took decision B (which is likely profitable anyways) but I should have just stuck with the game plan. have been picking up on quite a few things in live games and getting a lot better @ reads and exploitative play.

Tomorrow is Sunday. Tomorrow we will bring our best. Tomorrow we will kick some ass (in EV). Tonight we will rest up.

GN brothers
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-06-2017 , 09:10 PM
from 2 hands you post 78 & AA it looks to me that villain was checking turn with some draw or w/e and when you check behind he is just jaming rivers to make you fold smth so vs that kind of villain w should just check a lot on turns and call off super lightish on rivers imo (btw if he is just mucking when we call, people do that in live poker, we can call even wider because if he is blufing in his mind he will always muck and we dont need to show our hand; he might be blufing with better hand then ours)
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-06-2017 , 09:36 PM
yeah i would agree with that and i picked up on it as well. figured would be good to check behind on turn some strong hands because the guy just lifted off any time i showed any sign of passiveness.
From Walmart Worker to Walmart Wizard Quote
08-07-2017 , 01:12 AM
Hey guys, all in all that was another positive week in the books. I can look back on this week and say I'm trending in a positive direction and I did what was necessary in the week to fulfill my long term goals. Got out on 2 dates/did my gym work/ate ok/took care of myself/grinded hard...this puzzle is all starting to come together and the fog is starting to disappear. I feel happy.

One negative that I took away from this week is my table talk online. I never really say anything mean to anyone or w/e but sometimes when I'm really tilted or bored I just start saying stupid ****. On a more positive note my table talk in the live games this week was what I would consider elite haha. Had a fun time joking around with a lot of the players in the game and I feel thats important that recreational players enjoy themselves.


Health:

Workouts Completed this week: (4/4)
Times leaving diet guidelines: 5 (Diet wasn't horrendous this week...just not on point)
20 Minute Meditation Session: 2/7 (Did 2 sessions on prime. Need to get back on this!)
Books Read: 0/1
Body Weight +/-: -25 lbs. (since beginning of year)

Wealth:

Training Videos Watched: 0/1
Hours in the lab: 0/2
Sessions played: 4/4
Hours put into researching new avenues of revenue generation:2
Weekly Proft: +838
Yearly Profit: +32 242
Live Poker Profit This Year: +10 161

Book Review: No more excuses. Will get this done this week.

Hands:

Right off the top let's get this one out of the way. One of my biggest disasters/worst played hands of 2017. Was pretty tilted at this point (unacceptable) and I think that tilt crept it's way into my horrendous line here. I could explain my thought process in this hand but I'd say it's never good and most likely equivalent of a mouth breather. Without further delay, may I show you: the spew...

https://www.boomplayer.com/24820069_4817451A14

Now that's out of the way I can take a deep breath and let it go. Just unacceptable and I need to put it here for the roasting. I need to own my mistakes and make good of them.

https://www.boomplayer.com/24825435_169CC2F583

I like my line here vs. an ok reg. Actually really like it. Ended up getting 20th or so in that one.

https://www.boomplayer.com/24821122_7F37F7EC7E
can we think of any logic why brazillian reg floats me twice here? especially given sizings lol.

https://www.boomplayer.com/24820398_1A99EFA75B
should i just jam turn? idk his x/r seems pretty ambitious imo for starters when he gets jammed on hes in a horrid spot. what value hands does he want to x/r here? imo should jsut barrel it off if he feels like running it. River in theory has to be close to a fold but fk it not folding.

https://www.boomplayer.com/24819063_D888C6E610
GTO inside

Random Rant of the Week

Oh boy, we got a lot on the plate this week. Just got back from my gym session and nice long walk to clear my head. The conundrum is that I actually filled my head thinking about the direction I'm gonna take this tonight. First, I'm gonna make a poker related rant. Second, a life related one.

Poker Related:

So I actually thought of this when I saw something on Pads' twitter. Was actually a question asked on twitter (I think I talked about something similar a few months ago in here as well)...but "what is something most people would disagree with you on?" (or something along those lines). Some guy posted saying "stables killed poker" and pads stated "stables are the reason online poker isn't dead". I actually think there is truth to both sides here and I want to outline some of the pros/cons of each argument.

Stables Killing Poker:
-Mass dissemination of knowledge and strategy. When successful poker players have incentive to teach their winning strategies to other horses because it is in their best financial interest.
-These horses do not keep the knowledge for themselves. They tell their friends who tell their friends who tell their dogs etc.
-This is possibly the biggest reason imo: stables train horses/force them to be disciplined and make good bankroll decisions. $ in poker comes from people making -EV decisions. It is less common for a staked horse to be found in a -EV game for them because their backers control the games they play to make a long term profit. For example a friend of mine would play 200$ tourneys on a 5k roll when he was on his own. He ofc went busto and is now staked for 55$ tourneys and below. Now he plays in games where he prints vs. games where he donates because he has a non-biased source game selecting for him.
-Stables groom their horses to suck out low variance $ from the poker economy. This is obviously not good when the reg:fish ratio is constantly growing.
-Forces regs to stay in the games and keeps them afloat by sustaining the variance with unlimited BR and irl loans.

Stables Saving Poker:

-I know countless regs (including myself) who would have been long gone from poker if it wasn't for staking. I never would have had the discipline when I was younger to stay in the game without staking. They decided my games and gave me coaching and I printed in return.
-Stables keep guys in bigger games they couldn't afford on their own.
-Probably (my guess) 60% of MTT regs are staked and probably 25% sell action and probably 15% play strictly own dime. Such a high % of the field is staked regs and a lot of these guys would disappear from bigger games w/o constant BR.
-Stables get new guys into poker. In the process of becoming regs they sometimes are losing players before they become winning.


Those are just some quick thoughts I had. Not sure if anyone has anything else to add? I just want to note that I think hating on stables/training sites is fairly hypocritical of almost any reg to do. The bottom line is that this is (sort of) a zero sum game. Every man is for himself (or his team) in this game at the end of the day. We're all fighting for a bigger piece of the pie and all of our strategy work is designed to do so. Sadly, yet beautifully, poker is about finding a way to siphon as much $ for ourselves out of the economy as we possibly can. When guys started training sites it was because they felt the information given up < the income they would earn from it. Fighting for this pie is why training sites exist, why staking sites exist, why Amaya increases the rake, why we use HUDs/training sites/staking sites, and why we play this fkn game.

This is a very pessimistic viewpoint that may not be true in all cases. One day I know many of us will have extremely positive effects on society, if not already. I can promise you that.


Life Rant:

Someone asked me this week: "what would you tell your 20 year old self today? now that you are 25." Well, let's talk about a few lessons I've learned:

1. Take way more risk. If you **** up in your early 20's you don't have a kid/a mortgage/a family. The worst case scenario is never that bad if you go busto. I should have got on my own dime in online poker way sooner than I did and been shot taking the higher games when they were still good.

2. You are not invincible. I never thought I would get back problems or sleeping problems from poor posture or lack of physical activity in a day. Was so used to eating what I wanted and never putting on weight in my teen years. I'd tell myself to take care of myself better and keep health as my primary priority. Only in recent months have I gotten back on the health bandwagon...the chains of habit were too weak to be felt until ALMOST too strong to be broken. Still working to reverse a lot of those bad habits lol.

3. Do not care what people think. Respect/listen/value their opinions when they are valid but make my own choices and follow the path I think is right. People who are negative or don't have my best interests in mind do not deserve my time or energy. I used to get all bent out of shape or **** talk etc which is a low vibration behaviour in itself. Huge waste of time and energy.

4. Network better and get myself out there more. There was a lot of people I should have gotten to know far better than I did. Sometimes I wasn't my best self for whatever reason and that manifested into a lot of my relationships.

5. Invest in this little thing called Bitcoin.


Phew, that was a long rant. What do you 30 year olds have in terms of advice for 25 year old me?

Thanks for reading y'all...I really appreciate the support. Hopefully that staking stuff doesn't trigger anyone til' next time...



"All men are created equal. Some work harder in pre-season." -Emmit Smith
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08-07-2017 , 10:27 AM
Enjoyed reading the post/update! I have a few things to comment on so let's start with the hands.

95s - Love it, unlikely our opponent expects us to bluff here and we aren't jamming Ax otr if we float with it on the flop.

AQ - Looks fine, I'd go insane trying to decipher the Brazilian dude's thought process there .

33 - Playing the same way. Jam turn isn't terrible though as I wouldn't expect V to have complete air here ever or fold any type of draw if he x/r (not sure why he would though).

AA - No folding allowed in HSMTTs.

I agree with all the reasons you stated for stables killing online poker. Personally I think stables have done a lot more harm than good to the poker economy. Stables produce a lot of "bad regs" who are small winners in the game but still steal EV from the field when they register a tourney.

If all stables closed up shop, we would see games get significantly softer and the population in any format of poker decrease. This would be great for the players who ownroll or sell action, smaller fields + softer fields = less variance/more $. However, this would hurt profitable stables who are taking short term gains and the poker sites in general as less rake would be produced.
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08-07-2017 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WALMARTcnxn
std cooler for j8o
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08-08-2017 , 01:48 AM
@trent: yes i would have to agree with you there. for example if you were on a FT with 8 fish you would just print with not much variance cuz u could heavily exploit them all (what a sweet time in poker that would have been). it was so easy to be table captain and run people over. nowadays its seldom ur on a relevant FT with less than 6-7 other regs...whether good or bad it is substantially tougher than if a clueless fish was in their spots.

the creation and multiplication of regs and decreasing $ to be made is only natural in a market life cycle. the founders of a money making method print, then people copy, then more people copy, then the market becomes incredibly efficient until everyone is making very little $ (been several years since i've sat in an economics class, just talking out of my ass).

@egption: agreed...soso sick he runs into top ranges

A little update:

Well guys, I officially just completed my month prop bet. Although it was quite simple it was extremely efficient. Going to the gym 4x/week for a month and not eating pizza is relatively simple to complete (especially when $ on the line). The diet has been cleaned up a lot and I'm starting to slim down a little and noticing small changes everyday. Some main ones: no more heart burn, far better quality of sleep, more testosterone, less mood swings, less tired and groggy, more stamina and increase in weight i can lift.

Overall, this was a pretty simple prop bet but I think taking small steps that are sustainable in the long run has been key for me, as opposed to doing a 180 degree turnaround all at once.

Live Poker Stuff:

I'm going to 'murica again this weekend to flick a 700$ main event w/ 3 flights and decent guarantee with a field that is sure to be like 60% blasters 45% bad regs 5% ok regs...bad beat jackpot is 400k in cash so I booked a room there for 3 nights this weekend. Plan is to literally grind my ass off in the tourney or cash almost every waking hour.

I'm reasonably convinced I can make an hourly of ~50$ @ 2/5 and around 10k/month somewhat consistently (can anyone give any thoughts on this w/ experience?). This is a hell of a lot better than online and it's looking like getting myself into/closer to the good games is going to be a necessity moving forward. We'll see how it goes this weekend. Hopefully well and I can transition that into the tourneys going on @ the playground in MTL next week!

Online Update:

Just fired a breakeven session. Saved the day w/ 3rd place in an 82 turbo. Was tilting cuz i had commanding chip lead 3 handed and then i got sucked out for piles vs. a blaster, then lost a cooler flip vs that same blaster.

Was sort of annoyed because all of this runbad deep and just in general is adding up a little bit and causing some tension. In times where I can be completely honest with myself I have no fkn business bitching about running bad but sometimes gotta get a lil whine out


A Little Story About Rungood:

So around this time last year I was heading into day 3 of the 109 phase WCOOP. I was around 19/27 in chips and had around 30bbs. I'll never forget when I was a 2$ 180 19 year old reg railing all the HS end bosses like wizowizo on WCOOP fts.

Before playing in that day 3 I woke up, drove to Tim Horton's and bought a coffee and breakfast sandwich. I then came home (was @ my parents house) and took a walk to one of my favourite places in the world. Basically, its about a 20 minute walk through the provincial park to this cliff that over hangs the river with a very nice view.

As it was fall and the park was closed, I basically had the whole spot to myself. I sat there for about an hour just enjoying the view, peace, and fresh air. I just started thinking thoughts to myself such as:
-This is life changing money for me and those who have a piece of me
-I'm ok with losing as long as I do my best. I'll be ok without the money.
-I need to bring my A game and focus.
-There's a tonne of pressure to succeed. I've always been good at embracing pressure.
-I'm so lucky to have this opportunity.

After clearing my head I walked home and sat down at my computer and did villain profiles on the 27 left in the tourney. The crazy thing is that sat to my direct left was one of the guys I idolized as a kid, ole schemion himself. After some heart racing flips, heart attack inducing bluffs, and some sweaty ass palms...I was heads up.

I have no right to be bitching about runbad. None of us do. I've done all I could have ever dreamed of in poker and whether I stay in the game or not I'm proud of it. This is our job and runbad is part of it. A customer service rep deals with hot-headed customers, a sales person deals with rejection, an athlete deals with pain and pressure, and a poker player deals with variance...it's part of the job.
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08-08-2017 , 10:59 PM
Another painful day. Got 9th in hot 22 and built up some other stacks but still ended up losing on the day. What bugs me the most is that I didn't play my best and made some careless mistakes. I feel these have come part from frustration, part from fatigue, and part from all of these little factors adding up.

The worst thing right now is that I don't feel like taking days off but I feel it's just for the better if I take Wed/Thurs off and then go HARD @ this live series on teh weekend. It's important that my stamina is recharged and I'm ready to flick some series live hours. Might even go play live tomorrow if I'm feeling a little better


Probably won't be back here til' Sunday for weekly update. Would post a few hands from my session but just feel exhaust and fatigue. Who said this game was ez anyways? GN and GL homies.
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08-09-2017 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WALMARTcnxn
Another painful day. Got 9th in hot 22 and built up some other stacks but still ended up losing on the day. What bugs me the most is that I didn't play my best and made some careless mistakes. I feel these have come part from frustration, part from fatigue, and part from all of these little factors adding up.

The worst thing right now is that I don't feel like taking days off but I feel it's just for the better if I take Wed/Thurs off and then go HARD @ this live series on teh weekend. It's important that my stamina is recharged and I'm ready to flick some series live hours. Might even go play live tomorrow if I'm feeling a little better


Probably won't be back here til' Sunday for weekly update. Would post a few hands from my session but just feel exhaust and fatigue. Who said this game was ez anyways? GN and GL homies.
Hi dude. I'd say take even just a day off and spend some time with yourself about the issues you're having so you can just tackle them and be ready and fresh to plow for the weekend.

Also I have to say, as a 31 year old, your advice to your 20 year old self is pretty spot on. Just keep doing those things and you'll be golden, you seem pretty wise .
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08-09-2017 , 08:08 PM
stables as they are imo are w/e as long as there is no ghosting

but tbh i really find hard to believe that stable owner/s (who have huge financial interest when his horse get as deep as posible in some MTT and win as much money as posible) is not watching and giving some tips as minimum (maybe taking over the account and playing by himself as max) when some horse is deep like last 2/3 tables of some major MTT

so when you get on FT and some random guy who had some leaks that you were expoiting starts to take difrent lines that he didnt take ever before you got to ask yourself is someone else playing behind that account now?

and that is what is killing poker
GREED
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08-09-2017 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sippin_criss
Hi dude. I'd say take even just a day off and spend some time with yourself about the issues you're having so you can just tackle them and be ready and fresh to plow for the weekend.

Also I have to say, as a 31 year old, your advice to your 20 year old self is pretty spot on. Just keep doing those things and you'll be golden, you seem pretty wise .
SNG OG itc Thanks dude I appreciate that. Yeah I should have taken today off but was bored and went to fire some cash haha. Taking tonight and tomorrow off and gonna start something that's somewhat rare to me: getting into a new tv series. Everyone recommends Game of thrones so yolo I need something to take my focus away from poker for the next 48 hours. I'm wise in the sense of knowing what I should be doing...not so wise at applying it...that's the hard part Thanks for da post!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Re8uZ
stables as they are imo are w/e as long as there is no ghosting

but tbh i really find hard to believe that stable owner/s (who have huge financial interest when his horse get as deep as posible in some MTT and win as much money as posible) is not watching and giving some tips as minimum (maybe taking over the account and playing by himself as max) when some horse is deep like last 2/3 tables of some major MTT

so when you get on FT and some random guy who had some leaks that you were expoiting starts to take difrent lines that he didnt take ever before you got to ask yourself is someone else playing behind that account now?

and that is what is killing poker
GREED
There is obviously heaps of ghosting going on in online poker lol. I honestly don't doubt it that sometimes guys are on skype to eachother sharing hole cards and discussing their blockers or w/e to potential hands that villains could have. All we can do is report those accounts when we suspect it and other than that not a whole lot. OFC there is greed in poker everyone is trying to make their nut. Some have morals and dignity others don't. In any field where there is something desirable at stake their will always be people who exploit the system.

If someone can find a way to take more $ out of poker in an honest way I tip my hat to them, wp sir.

If someone takes $ out of poker by cheating I hope they get punished for it somewhere down the line and hopefully it eats them up inside that they are a cheating pos.
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08-13-2017 , 04:10 PM
Left my laptop at home so will have to update tomorrow instead. Made day 2 of live event and busted 2nd hand of day running it with nut flush and str8 blocker. Guy had a very tough time calling 2nd nut flush so i think my bluff is good. Will outline some key hands including that one tomorrow.

Running so awful in everything here but making heaps of EV. Prob gonna rest for an hour then head back down to cash and make a run at getting unstuck. This whole run feels really ****ty but if it was easy everyone would do it. Gl today all. Godspeed.
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