q9 - are you betting Tx/98/87 with that sizing on turn too??
44 - actually i dont think you have a lot of nutted hands with line you take imo, i think different line/sizing should be better more credible with those stack sizies
AQs - i am vamooo shoving flop(if we are not planing to to fold on some turn/river, btw i think that river is worse river possible to call off)
KsQ- i think we can shove river as bluff and think is realistic to assume that villain will fold a ot of better hands, i also would like to see myself cbeting ~30-40% pot on that flop with KsQ to set up future streets bluffs (btw i also agree that random dont have nuted hands with that sizings turn/river but i think that he can have some hands better then ours Tx/9x/Ax/5x and think he will fold most/ if not all of them if we shove on river)

"Read about 50% of "The Drunkard's Walk" this week."

Did you ever read The Black Swan? Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 2 books looks similars.

Quick question for you mister W. How do you work on your game?
Review hand?
Coaching?
You use software? Which?
Others?

There's SOOO many ways to work on your game, sometimes I feel lost.

This thread is great, really enjoy the deeper level of your posts...
Can relate 100% to the one about being in MU and talking to family about it. The worst I've felt in a downswing is probably after telling my mum i'm 'x' in MU and she gets all hysterical that i'm in all this debt etc...certainly doesn't help

Hey guys just been busy getting out here and grinding. Ill address the above posts tonight when im back at hotel

Got ~40th in the 600 goliath for 4k...pretty annoyed with it but very good start to the trip nonetheless. Apologize for the delay in responses but have been busy going deep into day 2 of that + getting set up here. Currently too innebriated atm to make a coherent response...trying to get things a little more optimal tomorrow and will do my best to answer everything+maybe talk a little bit about Vegas.

hey. for me personally, i would say the biggest thing of my study would be marking hands or sending them to other poker friends. i probably annoy quite a few people with this daily asking for their opinions. always great to get an outside perspective on any hand where unsure what is best line/options. also mark hands and do review sessions of them about once per week. i've had coaching from 3-4 guys in the past. softwares: PT4, HRC, icmizer, flopzilla, pio. thing that i have found works the best for developing myself as a player would be thinking about my range and how it appears to specific villains, and thinking about their whole range and exploiting it. for example considering how many bluffs/value bets i will have in a spot and tht way i can decide how much % of my range i need to be responding with and what sizings. ofc vs weaker players i take more of an exploitative standpoint. let's say in theory a flush draw misses so we may have more bluffs given this...that means we will get called wider, so we can value bet a lot thinner. (not sure if all that makes sense or if its the response u were looking for)
-oh yeah training sites. imo from the big ones they have really been lacking in content last year or two. seems like its just a slow poison drip of information and the coaches rarely delve into advanced exploitative stuff etc. i like what upswing is doing with "modules" in certain aspects of poker. can't speak to any of their MTT content though (haven't seen any myself). the new niche for training sites imo lies in these "module style" videos that cover various aspects of poker in depth. for example: a full breakdown of BB defense strategy and approach w/ example hands etc etc

thanks i appreciate that. it's a very difficult game in many aspects on and off the tables. it sucks when the normal population doesnt understand what we deal with. that being said if it was easy everyone would do it i remember i asked my parents for a loan a few years ago and they told me to go get a job. it really sucked but you have to understand they want the best for us in life and they don't want to feed our "gambling".

-i think 1 pair hands arent great as a lead here idk. gutshots work nicely as its not a huge disaster to get raised. in theory i dont think villain should raise our lead very often at all. we can balance with 2 pairs/straights/sets imo. generally not a huge advocate of leading but i do really like it in this spot. prob shouldnt do it with every draw idk
44- not sure haha. i only need a few nut combos though in my range to justify this sizing. prob completely needless tho haha.
AQ-yeah or jam turn. just a disaster idk what i was thinking.
KQ-he was a reg i think trying to make it look like he was trying to get thin value. just kinda weak of him i think and it's not overly credible at all. think he should size large w/ range prob.

have not sir. maybe ill have to check that out

We didn't understand each other
About Q9 hand=> what was i trying to say was that i dont think you are/shold be leading Tx/98/87 with that sixing on that turn
Gl. Vegas

looks like a super gto spot to fish, harder to fly fish a river than it is a lake so if u are ok there your good elsewere, get some fish pics up for the anglers amoung us. ive been eating the 'perfect diet' that koon talks about in that clip above also, would reccomend.

+ 1 to fold A7o pre to nit dont give them the pleassure of 3bbs more with there KK+ range, vile pigs, wouldnt mind 4b folding either tho cos you know 'why no 4bet'

and GL vagas mate vamooo

Hey bro hope vegas is treating you well. Nice run in the goliath. Hope u can take a timbey or two down whilst yoir there

Try not to let ur plan get out of the way whilst there. Can imagine it being super easy to get distracted .

Ohhh and pics please!!!

Speak soon brother best of luck <3

Vegas Update

Well, what is probably the biggest piece of advice every single reg will tell you about Vegas and WSOP? Generally something along the lines of "stay disciplined, don't fall for scams, don't go out drinking the day before tournaments, dont gamble in pit games etc etc"

What have I done? Something along the lines of: being undisciplined with nutrition and exercise, drinking copious amounts of booze 2/3 nights so far. Just completely unacceptable and I think I've been lucky that I haven't really played too many big buy in events here/been put in too many tough spots. Really think my poker play has been quite solid (somehow) despite feeling like complete aids for 2/4 days I've played. At least I haven't fallen for any scams yet...

Anyways, I actually ended up running deep (40th/~3k entrants) in the 600 Goliath which had 205k up top. Pretty tilted I couldn't run good near the end but that's usually how 99% of the field feels about a tournament isn't it? Cashed for 3900 so good start to the series Played super solid and quite pleased with that.

Think today I might have a reset day. Get a good healthy breakfast+workout in the morning and follow it up with a massage/spa relax day. Should get me nice and fresh for the Millionaire Maker this weekend. Feel like I've really got all the degen out of me and I'm ready to optimize things for the rest of this series. These events are so soft and I came here for business EV...need to start following through with that.

Here's my thoughts on Vegas thus far:

I really dislike this place...let's begin with that. This city is designed to siphon EV out of everyone who comes here. Whether it be via money, health, or whatever else under the sun. Almost everything in this city is designed to tempt you into -EV decisions. By millions of people making these slightly -EV decisions everyday, astounding profits are made. If you want good comps from the casino you have to gamble more money than your comps are actually worth. For example the casino might comp you a 100$ room but it's expected that you will wager far more $ in lost EV than that room is actually worth to them.

Was sort of thinking about this the other day when I scanned the RIO WSOP room...poker players as far as the eye could see. The funny thing about this is that probably ~90% of the field thinks they have a big edge on the field. Whether it's the old guy folding to 90% of 3 bets because he says "I don't take coin flips, son.", or the 21 year old kid with headphones and a hoodie, the guy on vacation with his family who happens to be in Vegas at the time of the WSOP, etc...almost everyone thinks they have an edge on the field lol.

So among all this it kind of makes me wonder what % of people are actually winning in the fields given rake. Maybe like 25% in some of the softer WSOP events? When you picture a normal distribution graph, all poker players results should fall somewhere within that type of distribution. However, when you factor in a 10% rake, this graph would become completely skewed. There would be a few people losing huge, a few winning huge, a tonne losing marginally, a lot breakeven, and a few slightly winning.

By thinking objectively about this, a conundrum arises. The system, just like the slot machines or pit games, is designed for us to lose (with the rake). This just means that if we want to be in the elite earnings category we need to be elite with discipline and efficiency...if we don't do anything to separate ourselves from the population...we will share their mediocre results.

Back to Vegas: So let's say you have a 50% ROI in a 1k tourney. Every time you play that tournament you will make 500$ in EV. What about the cost of plane tickets, hotels, ubers, meals, tips? You will make substantially less ROI...don't waste any more ROI on stupid **** like pit games. It's a business...we need to treat it as such.

Anyways, I've been lucky to be profitable on the trip thus far...especially given a few degenerate antics. It's been a really good first few days here but it's time to step it up. Gonna hit the gym right now, get a good healthy breakfast, and then relax in the spa today to freshen up for some heavy grinding next few days. It's time to start emulating the lifestyle of some of the elite end bosses in poker...hopefully I can emulate their results too

Best of luck everyone. Been a while since an update so I figured I'd hit y'all with this one. Peaceee!

you advocate for a smaller sizing? I guess I'm thinking I can use a more polarizing sizing that is balanced with a lot of value hands. It's obviously a huge disaster if the villain raises a lot though (which he shouldn't be doing imo)...anyways what sizing do you advocate for and why?

thanks d00d. yeah it was a really cool trip/river. i wish i took some pics of the fish I caught but forgot, only made them a snap chat when I return to Canada I'll definitely be doing a lot of fishing this summer and will maybe post a few odd pics in here. Actually my condo is right near the Grand River, which is a world class brown trout fishery. Sadly, haven't been home during open season yet as have been on road for 6 weeks. Looking forward to maybe getting into fly fishing this year.

Yeah, tbh I don't mind paying people off if they are balanced and I'm actually ahead sometimes. Vs. these nits who aren't balanced it really tilts me to donate to them...need to be finding those tough exploit folds.

tyvm bro. not gonna lie i've been distracted af as you can see by my above post...but that degen is out of my system..time to reset today and get back on the horse.

Yeah just read the above post quite a good read and agree with alot u said .

Its all good mate. Ur young . U need to enjoy urself a bit gl for the remainder of the trip m8 cant wait to hear some more updates

About q9 spot my thoghts are as follows

Villain is opening HJ/7handed and we are def in BB ~25-30bb ef stacks
-
flop is 85Tr => as default opening/defending ranges i think villain has clear range advantage on that flop (mainly b/c he has more overpairsin his range, because mosto of the time we are 3bet gii QQ(JJ)+ maybe we shove some hands into him like AQ/AJ 7-JJ etc, depending how we construct our range, and how villain tendencies are/how wide he is opening/reacting to 3 bets etc... Guess u get the point) i also think that with thay stack sizesis kinda best to x/r gii like our best Tx,(AT) maybe 84s,JJ/ AA/75s that we flat pre... so when we call flop our range is kinda sets( that he can have it too) some 2pair combos ( that he can have it too) and some weak showdown 1 pair hands/draws ( that also villain will hav it too) we font have overpairs but villain does

Turn 6 is interesting, now i think our ranges get equal because we now have more 2 pair/str8 combos that villain has that beat his overpair combos ( we kinda have all 75o/97o/86/64/T6/84s that villain shouldn have it)
so the question is how we like to play our range now
Imo there are few assumption that we need to make here
First is that we assume this turn will mostly go ch/ch
And second is that we assume that most if the time we can take one more street value imo
So if this assumptions are somehow correct now we need to figure out how we can exploit villain tendencies, so we can take difrent lines to exploit him
please have THIS in mind thats is true this days lol ;-)
So if villain is blindly Cbeting bareling and folding imo best exploit is to x/rAI
If villain I pasive on turns ch behind showdown and then going for thin value on rivers we can ch turn and x/rai rivers
When we decide to lead turn with those stacks i think we should either lead 30-40% pot or overbet pot, so we can do some things on rivers ( tbh i prefer leading when turn is bringing flush draw so we can balance our made hand leads with our flush draw, like for ex if we had like JQdd and turn is 6d i prefer to lead that kind of combo for like 1/3 or 1,5x pot and then decide rivers, vs your choice of combo on tgat kind of turn)
Why i think 1/3 pot over bet is better then full pot sizing?
I think is easier to balance have merged range with those sizings/ stacks left behind
for ex if we have T7 we have good hand but we cant call like 2 streets and be very happy about it, or call river big bet if turn goes x/x and we also need some kind of protection from overcars /draws so we can put this kind of hand in our leading range together with like 97/75 and then decide rivers
Choosing sizing mainly depends of villain and dinamics imo, for if we think villain will call small bet with lot one pair hands andch behind rivers imo obv is best lead to 1/3 pot and then decide to bomb rivers or bet 50-60 or ch or w/e
If we think villain will call all made hands but fold draws and ch behind ruvers without very top of his ranfe obv imo is best to overbet turn for max value and decide rivers with simular range

What i am trying to say, is that is hard for me to have like T7o/T9/66 64 etc on that turn when i pot bet it but i will have them with "some frequency" lol when i bet 1/3 pot or 1,5x pot(wgen i think about it i guess i very rarely if ever wil pot bet lead withbthose stack sizes on that turn) my reasining of mtt field tendencies is that villains look for reasons to call/ fold and using unorthodox betting lines make them questioning their hand holdings and not know what to do because tge dont see/ run into those kind of spots very odten if ecer, so they end up randomly click btns and when you randomly click btns you are alnist alawus makinging wrong decision ( random is not random in mtts but is,quite emotional imo)

Btw i think best blufing lead bareling hand to have on that turn( also on 4/5/9/8 and maybe T/J) is 77

P.S. I think this rant makes sense( eng is not my first language)
P.P.S. You can freely pm me and we can change contacts if you want and you can add me on your " sending hh to discuss strategy" list ;-)

GL with your WSOP events man hope the summer goes well for you! Look forward to reading more updates

tyvm my son we'll get a skype call going soon just been so busy.

thanks m8!

@ re8uz thanks very much for your in depth analysis. im definitely gonna have a thorough look through that during my lab session this week. will pm u

yoyoyo, decided to get a separate hotel room from my friend. wasn't sleeping well at all and things were nowhere near optimal. just a few floors above or w/e so its cool we can still hang out/get food/share cabs but when i need my space/peace/quiet i can easily go have it.

basically bricked about ~5 MTTs since that deep run in the goliath. still feel im playing very well but been running really bad. tomorrow should be nice in the millionaire maker, prob a soft field and a little bit deeper structure. have played 1 cash session and won about ~6 buy ins so that was really good. softest game ive prob ever played in...literally 0 regs (but it was only small stakes game and at small poker room).

the hustle and bustle of this degenerating city was really starting to take a toll on me. took a few measures to make sure my mindset is at the best level it can be. really excited for a nice deep sleep about now

a little interesting piece that i heard from one of the best tourney players in the world...he was saying how when he got started out he made sure everything around him was top level. the best softwares, hardwares, living circumstances, food, location, coaches etc. i really think this is so important into becoming elite. if you provide yourself with the best circumstances they will likely manifest themselves in elite results.

time for some shut eye and hopefully my best A game in the milly maker...

legooooooooooooooooo

day 2 milly maker going in with about 63k, bb 1200...1160 paid 1240 ish left. played super solid all day and didnt really do anything that i thought was a huge mistake. although ill say tough spots are far less frequent when playing live i think, generally because the players are far worse and far less balanced. here s a few hands from today:

UTG ~30bbs, me in SB 60bbs. he opens 2.2x UTG, i peel SB with Q8dd..might i add this isnt standard at all by me and i think its a mistake. should 3b or fold prob. he seemed semi tilted and was shown opening J8o UTG, and also showed down a horrendous bluff imo.

FLOP: Qc10s2c...he c bets half pot, i call.
TURN: 2s....he bets about 2/3 pot, i call.
RIVER: 8s...he jams about his remaining 13bbs on the river, i call. he shows A6ss.

so this pot shouldnt have happened cuz i prob should fold or 3b pre. i think flop and turn are obligatory calls. so tough to fold river because there's so much draws that missed and im not blocking any of it. was mostly worried about backdoor spades or J9. meh prob an ok call down i think as long as he will be bluffing hands like KJ and club draws for 3 streets which i def think he capable.

I open A8o UTG (we were approaching money and end of day, villain in BB was short and nitty af/table was tight...felt like i could get a loose open through and its tough for people to 3 bet me when in EP/blinds are short.)

I open from 50 BBs Ac8d, loose villain from above flats (18bbs), super loose old guy peels BTN, blinds fold.

FLOP: 759ccc... i c bet half pot, MP folds, old man 2x my raise. i call.
TURN:10d...check check
RIVER: 2c...i decided to check here and i think its prob a mistake given that he checked behind JJ with club...idk felt he will bluff this a decent frequency or v bet worse...prob should just lead big on river i reckon.

anyways boys thanks for reading...time for a good night sleep let's bring it tomo

Gl today mate. Best of luck.

Regarding hands. Q8dd is definitely the very bottom im flatting here vs villan u described. Not sure how aware of his image he is ect but i assume i would probably 3 bet fold this hand and possibly flat q9s+ . 30bb probably just folding mostly but if bb is weaker player and has ur effective stack i dnt mind it tbh.

A8o is kind of loose open here but if u felt table was really weak tight then obv is becomes a little easier being closer to money end of night.

Post flop im checking this monotone board alot with most of my range. What is old mans stack btw ? I think c/c or c/r gii on the flop this hand is the most optimal way to play this imo.
We have the nut flush draw and gutter ball lets dance as played river is obvious lead imo
Gl today. Run good sir <3

Hey man i will get back to your post as soon as i get to my comp. Been so busy out here grinding im really just in my room to sleep. I know i missed my first Sunday update of thr year i will catch up and make a big post asap (hope today) meant to do it last night but ended up in a 300 bbs deep cash game with some huge whales. Was up til about 7 am playin haha

Q8 is def a fold or 3 bet pre i think. definitely a mistake by me.

A8-yeah agree its loose as well and def doesnt fall under my standard opening ranges. blinds were shorter and nitty so felt people wont 3 bet me as much being committed to their stacks+positions+bubble/end of day abuse. my river check is a disaster haha

Weekly Update:

Hi guys, regretfully, I am not going to do the weekly update in the usual format. I just simply have not had a lot of time or energy here...nor have I made great/any progress towards any of my fitness/health goals. I've decided to just give myself the previous week that I've been in Vegas as a bye week. It sucks that I was so disciplined and had a great routine during SCOOP which has been lost in Vegas. No worries though, I'll get back on the horse...just hit a bit of a rough patch.

Random Rant of the Week

This week I'm going to keep this poker related. First, I want to talk a little bit about opening ranges and starting hand selection and then I want to talk about some poker table etiquette for regs.

The first part of this came to me when I was staring down at 97o in the c/o. I hadn't played a hand in quite some time and ended up opening this hand, and 3 barrel bluffing with it (and losing). In my head before opening it I was thinking "this is not a good open and it's fairly undisciplined." However, I talked myself into some logic that it could be good. Anyways, I lost a big pot that I should never have been involved in.

This brings me to the point that live poker can get very boring if you are card dead for a prolonged period of time (or just bored by only seeing 1 hand every 2 minutes.) It's so important to stay disciplined with preflop hand selection in poker (online and live) and here's why:
-The ranges that you open are the baseline of how villains construct their analysis of your range
-The ranges we begin hands with dictates the baseline of our postflop strategy
-If we are too tight or too loose we will be heavily exploitable either way...a GTO balance is needed vs GTO players
-If we are entering pots with a weaker range in general than our opponents, we need to have a significant edge or else we will be bleeding money. If you think about this in a vaccuum: picture if you have K10 and your friend has KQ...over a million hand sample you will lose a lot of money to him (because he will always have you outkicked/more bluff opportunities/etc). Apply this to poker, although it will be through thousands of combos of hands: it is still the same concept, and it adds up in the long run. (Sorry if that's not clear I'm tired af)

It's funny when I was new in poker I always thought that the elite players were just running everybody over (3 betting all the time, opening relentlessly, barreling relentlessly). Eventually, I realized that the elite players were really just playing solid poker...having solid/disciplined pre flop ranges, and applying sizing/range concepts appropriately. Not to mention, they are good at exploiting inefficiencies in the strategy of villains.

Anyways, other than studying/finding optimal pre flop hand solutions...if you just think logically about your frequencies and how your hands will flop vs different types of villain ranges that is probably a good start. ie KQ might be a better open UTG than A9 because you will flop top pair more often and seldom be outkicked/connected cards flop draws more often which give you better opportunities for barreling...that should be a good start.

The next thing that's on my mind is "professional poker player etiquette". It's so clear that the game of poker isn't nearly as fun as it used to be for recreational players. A few years ago there was tonnes of table talk and a "saloon like atmosphere". Over time, the game has evolved and the ole' Texas cowboy opponents of the past have turned into 20-35 year old kids who wear headphones and hoodies and don't care to ensure their opponents have a good time. There is nothing more cringey than when an old guy sits down at a table and says "hey guys how's it going (or w/e)" and nobody cares to respond or start a conversation. I get it that most poker pros in 2017 are often introverts who don't care to converse, but c'mon we want recreational players to feel welcome and get good entertainment value for their buck. They probably don't feel comfortable either when everyone is mean muggin' and staring them down.

Here's a couple things that I think we can do:
-When a recreational player does something stupid like betting 8x pot or w/e...don't laugh/look at other regs/make a passive aggressive joke etc
-Don't berate them when they suck you out or they own you...just say nice hand wp
-If they bust you say "it was nice playing with you best of luck the rest of the way"
-Don't talk about running sims or balancing your frequencies/or GTO solutions or any other poker jargon that might be over someones head
-If a rec gives you advice on a hand or justifies their line, just listen to it...you don't need to agree or disagree
-Treat everyone with respect
-Try to start the odd conversation with some people..you don't need to talk when you are in a hand or anything but just here and there...hell, maybe you'll even find some good home game or business opportunities out of it...you never know.

Thus far in Vegas I'm probably slightly in the positive from tourneys and cash games. Just gonna have a relaxing night tonight/do some meditation. Gonna bring it the rest of the time I'm here. No prisoners. GN and GL.

"Both poker and investing are games of incomplete information. You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical." -David Einhorn

got OI vegas and decided to pull the plug on the trip early, flying home tomorrow. had a good time/had some deep runs/might have profited slightly/learned some valuable lessons

at the end of the day though my happiness and well being is worth more to me than some EV in a few poker tournaments. i've really gained a lot of respect for the guys slugging it out in the live streets. after 2 weeks i feel so drained and demoralized haha, idk how they do it 6 days a week year round.

my mistakes in Vegas:
1. stayed in a hotel. this was by far the biggest mistake because inherently, hotels have casinos, and casinos have alcohol. aside from having to walk through a smoky casino every time you want to go somewhere, you have the temptation of gambling/drinking/degening on various things.
2. having a roommate. this was also not a wise decision as i'm fairly introverted and need my alone time to recharge now and then. my discipline is also not great when i'm influenced all the time. i got my own room about 5 days into the trip to get my own space. still hung out with my friend all the time but going to my own quiet recharging space was necessary.
3. not managing costs well: everything adds up, and when you are canadian spending in USD, the costs are amplified drastically. long story short, everything is over priced on the Vegas strip. some things i overpaid for constantly: hotel, TIPPING, ubers/taxis, FOOD, gambling (although didn't lose much, but losing any is unacceptable), conversion fees, and the list goes on and on.
4. poor organization. was often a little bit late to tournaments because of poor scheduling or sleeping habits. important to know all the events going on and having a plan A and B depending how they go. for example if you bust some 1k event you will know that there is a 320 turbo or something going on after and you can snap go there. so important to put in volume when grinding live. also if you only play 1 tourney a day its tough to pay for all your expenses in EV. time wasted is money wasted.
5. didnt keep up with diet/fitness regime in the 2 weeks i was here. so difficult in 'murica but its possible. just look at the end bosses...they don't seem to have a problem.

anyways, i don't want to be all negative nancy here. as i said...had a good time, made a little money (i think?), and learned some valuable lessons. was also cool to meet up with a few of the guys i've met online over the years.

this wraps up my ~2 month hiatus and tomorrow morning it's time for me to say farewell to this journey. learned a lot and made some great progress towards my goals in 2017. coming home to the home stretch of the year...after a few days i'll be proper motivated to finish this year strong...still have a lot of goals to reach but i think we got this

thanks y'all and g'night from Vegas

Gonna use this one again:
"All men are created equal. Some work harder in pre-season."

PS: weekly updates will be back to normal starting this sunday. will prob flick a small session this sunday and take a week off to refocus and get the gym routine going again.

On the bright side you can crush easier online games for the rest of summer while a bunch of people are in vegas

I feel you on the feeling extra drained when going from having alone time and being more introverted to suddenly busy 24/7 with a friend/friend(s) expecting you to always be somewhere + tournaments all day every day around tons of other people. CAD-> USD is gross as well :P

Side note : do you usually play out the whole summer or how long was trip originally planned for?

yeah exactly. prob my ROI is way higher ofc in Vegas but my volume would be 6-7 tourneys per week. online i can sling 150/week with lower ROI, but less all the additional costs of living in another country.

yeah i love socializing etc but just need my alone time/space probably more than most people. if i dont get it i find i start to become irritated/hostile/etc

well it was originally planned for 2+weeks and i was gonna re-evaluate how it was going. needless to say it lasted its shortest possible expectancy ahha