Yeah awkward stack size to both double barrel and xjam with tbh.

In general OOP the common size is 4x the open

h1 turn x/call is a disaster. this is a super standard overbet spot you have a huge range advantage on AKxx boards. If you check its gotta to be to x/jam. if you dont usually overbet, you have to atleast bet a standard 2/3 pot. Checking just lets him realize all of his equity in the pot.


You're always talking about how nitty the games are, but you arent bluffing with straight draw/flush draw when you have one of the best possible boards for your range. This is where you NEED to blast it

Actually yeah I think jamming $335 into a $235 pot is our only play on the turn. We have plenty of FE and more than enough equity for this to be super profitable even if he calls all Ax, there will be enough Kx folding and draws as well. The only reason to xc in a spot like this is where our jam has no fold equity but that simply isn't the case here ever.

The turn jam may well be the best play but I dont think check/call is a disaster. Obviously it all depends on what he has.

If he has a big hand, Ill still double up if I hit the river by check/calling so Im more than getting correct odds including implied odds on the turn.

If he has a weak hand (like 88) then jamming or crai on the turn is obviously best. We would have to do the math on his range to try to come up with the best play, but I had no idea 88 would be in his range so my math wouldve been way way off.

This wasnt one of the nitty games Ive been talking about. Those are daytime weekday (mostly summer time) games. The daytime games have gotten better lately as the snowbirds have arrived and the peak time games have been really good.

Im at $106/hr in 65 hours in December and
$82/hr in my last 100 hours of 2/5

Mike I think you get an unfair amount of unconstructive criticism, but when you post your hourly from a 100 hour span you're just lobbing it up there to the trolls

It's really RP?!?!

RP, why you no play with us anymore in LLSNL?

Ghow'sthingsinyourneckofthewoods?G

yeah i suppose the word "disaster" is overused. The only way you can really mess this up is folding.

Just jamming is hands down the highest EV play all the time vs normalish ranges. If you plugged this hand into pio it would probably x/jam sometimes for the sake of balance but thats it. these low spr 3b pots are fairly easy to play as the raiser

bc he got banned

I would hope people understand that I posted that small recent sample only in the context that the games have gotten better and Im running good lately. I dont think people realize how seasonal the poker is here in S. Florida. Its very soft in the winter and very "not soft" in the summer.

FYP

I sat down for an evening session today and there was only one player at the table that I had ever laid eyes on before. I cant remember the last time that happened. A full table of rec players! I was pretty card dead but won the few hands I played.

1) I opened to $20 in EP QQ and got 4 callers

Flop ($100) 864. BB, who is a totally clueless fish leads out for $100. WTF? I wasnt crazy about calling or raising but decided to call. Everyone else folded.

Turn ($300) Villain checks blind. Who leads $100 into the raiser and then checks the turn blind? The turn was a Q. Villain only had $300 left. Honestly I have no idea what he had. 8x? A pair and straight draw? If he leads $100 on the flop will he fold something like 87? I have no idea so I just shoved the turn. He folded.

2) There was a LAGfish at the table trying to win every pot. He was making big bets in every hand.

I open to $20 QhJs. He calls HU in the BB.

Flop ($40) AsTs4c. X/X
Turn ($40) Qs. He checks. I bet $25. Villain check raises to $60. I call.
River ($160) 7s. He bet $115. I call and beat his QJ (no spade)

3) The LAGfish has gotten to the point where he is raising every other hand preflop and still trying to win every hand.

I limp AcAs in EP. It folds to the LAG in the cutoff. Before he does anything the button folds. The LAG says "Again? Really? and then raises to $25. He was trying to make it look like he was tired of people folding every time he raised a big hand but it was obviously an act. I reraised to $100. LAGfish has a $400 stack and calls the $100.

Flop ($205) Ah Qc 8c. I check. He checks back.
Turn ($205) 3c. I bet $100. He shoves all in. I snap call
River ($805) 4h. He says "I have a Q". I table my hand and collect the chips.

You gotta love when you limp/reraise with AA....flop top set and still stack the guy.

I won $700 in 2 hours in the evening and won $15 in 3 hours before my dinner break.

Bet like $75 OTT in hand 1 imo.

Yeah, $75-$125 is probably a better bet. This guy was such a donk though. One hand he was UTG and tried to check preflop when the action was on him. One hand he bet $75 into a $30 pot but said "raise $75". I thought he might call my all in with something like 87. When he tossed his cards in to fold an 8 was exposed. A smaller bet is still probably better.

If for no other reason to induce some sorta spazz. We basically have 100% equity and just want to try milk something outta him I guess.

The flop may have been 865 and not 864 because I know I was really concerned he had 87 when he fired out $100 and then checked blind on the turn but either way, youre right, I bet too much.

Here's an interesting stat. I started keeping track of results when I raise non premium hands and when I raise super lite. This could be open raising or raising limpers. Im doing it for 2 reasons.

1) Its been said that the vast majority of profits comes from AA/KK and the rest of all your other hands is just metagame. I think thats ridiculous, but whatever. I want to know how much Im making raising non premiums like QJ / KTs / AT...ect.

2) I want to know how often everyone folds and I steal blinds and limp money. I could also keep track of how often everyone folds when I raise premiums but I wanted to keep it a bit simpler. So Im only tracking non premium raises and super lite raises (suited connectors..ect)

The interesting thing Ive found so far is that alot of people think stealing blinds and limps is only important in a tournament where the blinds keep increasing but Im finding its also very profitable in cash games. Im NOT adjusting my game at all based on this info at this point. Im just playing my game and tracking these things for now.

So far everyone folds and I steal the limps and/or blinds 32% of the time. My total profit per hand is almost exactly the same whether or not anyone calls. In other words when there is a limper and I raise to $25 with QT, it doesnt matter if anyone calls or not, my profit (in the short term of 100 hours of tracking) is about the same. So stealing these blinds and limps is VERY important and more profitable than I thought.

At some point I may start raising an even wider range to take advantage of that but of course, at some point I will pass the tipping point and get called more and have a bigger card disadvantage. The key is to know which limpers fold the most and which players in the blinds dont defend their blinds to get the "steal" percentage as high as possible.

I mean this is all pretty obvious. If the blinds are tight, you can steal raise wider, but Im not sure anyone has actually tracked it in live games. Im also not talking about just raising in LP with a wide range for the sole purpose of stealing. Im talking about raising hands that I think I can play profitably from whatever position, but getting these results as a side affect.

Here's something else to think about. To whoever said all of your profit comes from AA/KK and the rest is metagame (or something to that effect):

These are rough numbers but you get AA or KK once every 110 hands. At 30-35 hands per hour that's about once every 3.5 hours. If all of your profit comes from AA/KK and you are an 8BB/hr winner, you would have to make an avg of 28BBs every time you got AA or KK since you are supposedly breaking even on all your other hands. That's completely absurd. Nobody is averaging anywhere near 28BBs with AA and KK.

you had me curious + i had free time, so i looked through my PT4 about all the AA/KK vs other hands thing. I think that saying came from online poker.

This is about a 130k hand sample of data from 100nl-200nl reg tables
WR over this sample is 5.5bb/100 and 7 in EV
My WR with all hands other then AA/KK is -3/100 and -2/100EV
My WR with AA specifically is 1300/100, or 13bb per hand
My WR with KK is 600/100 or 6bb per hand

So I think I got to the bottom of this. Online where winrates are much smaller, yes all your profit does come from aces and kings. BUT, Live 10bb hour winrates are like 50+bb/100 or something in that area, depending on how many hands per hour you get in.

in conclusion YES I think you are winning money with the other hands. I do also think you are averaging 28ish BB per hand with aces. online is around 13, so its going to significantly higher then that for live. This is both because your winrate is literally 10x what an online winrate is, and thats where these stats come from.

tl;dr live poker is really soft

It's going to be really difficult to get a sample size that means anything, and the effort to keep it up likely isn't worth it.

M did a homework thread a couple of years ago, which I managed to keep up for 2 months (which in my case was 8 sessions = ~79 hours). For me, it involved keeping track of AA/KK hands plus any hand where I put in 30bbs into the pot. It was a fairly exhausting exercise and I gave up after 2 months.

My AA/KK results:

8 sessions, ~79 hours, $1717 profit overall ($21.73/hr), over a two month period in 2015 (my worst ever year where I booked ~582 hours at a terrible $7.90/hr which at the time was about 1/3rd my previous worse year)

AA: 12 times (expected 10.7 if assuming 30 hands per hour), went 9-3 for $1026
KK: 7 times (expected 10.7), went 4-3 for $106

Overall, AA/KK made up 66% of my profits during this time. Lol.

But all in all, the sample size is just so small and meaningless, as will likely any sample size you attempt to track for live poker.

Ggoodluckifyou'reattemptingthis,butitislikelyawast eoftimeandeffort,imoG

Thread still delivering

Ava, my guess is you abandoned your HH tracking/stalking project? How far did you get?

Git'sexhaustingttokeepup,imoG

I was full blown into it, only stopped due to health. It was very doable and I'd be complete by now if not for health scare. Haven't played live in 2 months, and likely won't for some time.

I believe i got a smidge less than 500 hands.

Wow, didn't realize you had actually kept it up.

Ggoodluckwithyourhealth,imoG

This is just one of the many things I disagree with most people about. My variance is just light years lower than what most people report on this forum.

As far as AA/KK goes. I had AA twice today and KK once. I raised AA both times and everyone folded both times. I had KK in the BB and it folded to the blinds and I chopped it. You know how much I have to make up now to avg 28BBs per hand? There's no way anyone is averaging that much with AA/KK in live poker.

I believe you made 66% of your profits with AA/KK because you play tight. I bet my number is much much smaller than that. Nobody is making 100% of their profit from it. Not playing live anyway and I doubt online either.

I’ve noticed this in many of your HHs. Often posters will remark about missed value etc. But, I think often your play lessens your variance. So, much of your win rate is perhaps a misnomer. Much of it seems to be minimizing your losses. Not taking risks dispite what might be/seem correct odds. Fold and move on. Or check rather than bet. Whatever.

You also seem to be careful at quiting sessions when running bad and cutting losses.

FWIW, I think you take more chances in 1/2 than 2/5. Some HHs from 2/5, I think you would play different in 1/2 and vice versa. And doesn’t seem because game conditions, more a matter of lower variance in real $ amounts (instead of relative bb amounts). This seems evident if not from your HHs then for sure in your buyins. 1/2 seems 150bb buyins vs 2/5 sometimes even 80bb buys ins. I recall when you started posting you’d buy in 300$ in 2/5.

I’m not critiquing one way or other. Just pointing out what seems. And fwiw.