Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
It may or may not change anyone's opinion, but this is a 2/5 hand. Not 1/2
Ah. Also noticed you said he's a decent player? I don't know if this means he's bluffing more or less. It does seem unlikely the player wouldn't raise AA or KQ OTF, but there are so few heart combos out there unless he has no limping range. Combined with KK and QQ though there might be enough combos we should fold if he's incapable of bluffing something like AJ or JT when the spade hits, but IDK.
Personally I would bluff a lot on this river with a missed straight draw. The line looks super strong, as evidenced by everyone telling you to fold a set to a 1/2 pot bet, and most of the time you don't even have a set and are turbo-folding.
I don't know. Just doesn't seem that clear to me. Why should we fold a set here? Is a decent player never bluffing on the third spade (the 3
also completes a straight)? Or thin value-betting AK (not hearts), KQ, AA? We lose to 65, KK, QQ, and hearts. 65 is not likely even if he raises 65s in EP as that's 4 combos max, plus calling the flop and turn bets with that hand is horrific. So it's basically hearts, KK, and QQ. But we can discount KK and QQ somewhat as he's raising these hands on the flop at least sometimes. If he raises these half the time, then this makes 9 combos we're losing to if he's raising suited broadways and not AXs and SCs. AK, KQ, and AA make 26 combos we beat. Even heavily discounting AK, KQ, and AA (say 1 in 4 chance he plays these hands this way), we still have odds to call, even if villain is never bluffing. And if he's decent he has to be bluffing sometimes.
There are a lot of assumptions here, like how a decent player is likely to play certain hands. The biggest factors in calling seem to be a) could he play AJ, JT, AK, KQ, or AA this way at least some of the time? and b) how many AXs and SCs does he raise over limps pre-flop? If the answer to a) is "no" AND the answer to b) is "a lot" then it may be a fold.
But I don't think it's obvious at all. Maybe someone can explain it better to me why it's a clear fold.