What would you estimate his turn betting range is in hand 1? Part of me wants to x/raise that turn since you could still rep all the big pairs, but if he doesn't have any flop floats/turn stabs and if he's checking back 66-88 or like TT then it's just total spew.

It was literally the first hand at a brand new table and Ive never seen this guy before so I have nothing a read on other than hes about 30 and looks competent. I dont think the avg player is going to check back 66-TT there for fear of getting outdrawn on the river. I wouldnt check those hands back either unless I had a read or a reason to check back. I suspect those hand are exactly what he had.

Hand #1 - you should generally be betting the turn when the overcard comes to the board. Especially since you raised UTG vs a unknown kid. Reason is that most non-thinking players won't assume you check a hand like AA and underthink that you have AK and try and blow you off your hand. His reaction on the turn and an overpair to the 9 on the river card will tell you if you should triple barrel. If the opponent was a good player who knows you are good also then checking is generally better. He will know you are checking your whole range. Doubtful this kid has a 4 in his hand. Very few combos of it. More likely he has an underpair like 77. I see young kids cluelessly betting an underpair on the river for value in these spots not realizing a player's full range and that you can have AA. You also bet to control the bet size. At times you check there and the opponent with the underpair will now blast pot protecting his hand from your "AK". You still should have 34% equity in the hand. So a bet is almost always +EV.

Hand #2 Don't say a non-lie when an opponent asks what you have. That is a common tell which generally means that you have something stronger. People don't like to get caught lying at a poker table so they will answer in a non-lie fashion yet not reveal their hand. But in their non-lie they do reveal their hand. Especially if you felt comfortable saying it.

Hand #3 fine. That is not a good board for you. But you might consider a bluff river bet to get the guy off of a chop. By this point he doesn't have a Q or a 9. So he is left with JJ/TT (12 combos) and an assortment of other paint hands. If the player is generally loose in calling 3bs I'd make a river bet like AK/AJ/AT/Axs because there are more combos of that than the underpairs. If he is a tight 3b caller than I would check. BTW I would make a big note on this player and the fact he called you with AJs OOP. That is important. He shouldn't be calling your 3b OOP since he considers you a top player. You 3b pretty optimally so his hand range should be very tight vs you. I guess depends on positions also. If he was EP and you 3b him he should fold. If he was CO and you were BUT I can see a possible call or 4b. Even in that spot if he calls OOP with AJs and you have a hand like 76s with position you have the advantage with skill and position which negates his card advantage.

Hand #4 I like the play. Clearly if either had a draw they would bet it. They simply can't help themselves.

I'm gonna disagree with winky about hand 1. It's an overcard to the board but it doesn't hit our range really and I don't think any pair folds to a barrel. I can get on board with barreling the turn if we're gonna continue firing otr though.

Mike if you suspect he has mostly middling pairs I think a x/raise is insanely profitable. Gonna be tough for him to call it off with those types of hands.

I dont mind that line at all.

I said you "should" generally bet. There are many reasons to.

#1 if checking will cost you more than betting by the player bombing the pot
#2 if there even the tiniest chance he folds an underpair to the 9 you bet because at the least it is a +EV play
#3 if he floated with Ace high you can make him fold a better hand which is a bluff catcher
#4 to setup a triple barrel if he looks uncomfortable
#5 to setup a small triple barrel if you think he has the same FD but a better kicker.

You check
#1 if your opponent is one who bets small but will raise you if you bet to protect his hand... his small bet is to "milk you because you always have AK" his raise is to protect his 4x hand "because you might have a FD" and they love to slowplay.
#2 if your opponent is tricky with A4 and will check behind or AA
#3 if your opponent will fold to a river bet regardless if you bet the turn or not and will check the turn through
#4 if you think the opponent will bet and fold to a XR. Because you know he won't bet a boat in this spot or quads. So when he bets he pretty much flips his hand face up.

All good points. FTR I didn't mean that barreling was -ev I just meant it's not the line I would choose.

I got KK 3 times today. I raised $35, $45 and $50. I lost every time.

$45 raise got called by Q9 offsuit and he flopped JT8.
$50 raise in straddled pot got called by AK. He led $25 into a $120 pot on a Jxx flop and called my all in. He rivered an Ace.
One time an ace flopped and I got away cheaply.

I got AA twice. One time everyone folded. The other time I got all in AA vs KK and lost
I got QQ twice. I lost both
I was in a big pot with AQ on a Qxx flop and had to fold it.

I crai with Ah4h on KhJc6h board and lost to KK.

I flopped one set and lost to runner runner straight.

In just the all in hands, I lost $1000 in all in EV today. I lost $1685 in all in EV so far in 6 days in August and a total of $3550 in lost all in EV in the past 9 weeks.

Ive had 5 KK vs AA so far this year and lost them all
Ive had 3 AA vs KK so far this year (that I saw at showdown) and lost one out of 3.

This game can be very demoralizing sometimes.

When **** like that happens repeatedly over time it gives you MUBs. Last time I had a streak like that when I got it in, saw their cards, I had this sense of dread.

Woof. AA owes me a lot of money so far as well. :')

Man i wish i got that many pairs in my last 3 sessions combined.

That's the worst thing about it. I lost them all and you know Ill be premium card dead the next few sessions.

Now that Im off tilt, lets review these hands. They didnt happen in this order

1) Couple limps. I raise $35 AA SB. They all fold

2) 3 limps. I raise to $45 SB with KK. The first limper says "$50 to win $8? What a ****ing joke". Hes a pissed off old man who Ive shredded in the past. I pointed to the other side of the room and told him the limit table was over there. Of course I get a caller which is why I raise $45 from the SB with KK.

Flop ($110) TJ8. Villain is the hand is one of the loosest and worst players in the room. This flop pounds his range. I check. He bets $50. I call.

Turn ($210) Q. Hmmm...I lead $50 as a blocking bet of sorts. He shoves $350 ish. He clearly isnt afraid of me having AK so he has to have a 9. I fold. He shows Q9.

3) 3 limps. I raise to $35 AA in HJ. The button makes it $100. I 4 bet all in. He calls KK and flops a K

4) I open to $20 AQ. I get 4 calls.
Flop ($100) Q74 rainbow. Checked to me. I bet $60. Couple folds and then same guy from hand #2 check raises to $160. I fold. He is never doing that with KQ. Easy fold. He probably has a stupid 2 pair.

5) Button straddle. 3 limps. I make it $50 KK. One of the EP limpers calls.
Flop ($130) Js5s7c. He leads $25 with $130 behind. I slide a large stack of greens into the pot. Villain says "How much is that?". I know that I make so much money because so many of these guys are complete idiots but stupidity tilts me. The guy has $130 in reds in his stack and he asks "how much is that" when I push out a stack of greens?

The dealer says "Its $400". Then I said "I also have another $200 behind Sir". That got a pretty good laugh out of everyone except villain.

He calls with AK and rivers an A.

6) UTG limps. I limp Ah4h in MP. Kinda meh but whatever. Next guy limps. Button makes it $20. I call and MP calls.

Flop ($70) KhJs6h. I check. MP bets $25. Button calls. They both have around $150ish. I crai. MP folds. Button calls with KK and I miss. I think KK and JJ are about the only hands the button can have that he only calls the $25 and then calls my crai. Most of these guys will never raise KK or JJ on that flop because they are trying to hit the high hand.

I cant even remember the other hands. They are all a blur. What I do know is if we wouldve stopped the hands at the point of the All In and split the money up according to equity I would have $1000 more than I have right now. That's a ton of Lost All in equity in a 4 hour session in a 100BB capped game. I think its only the 3rd time its been $1000+ in over 600 sessions.

Just one of those days. Keep it up, all those hands seem wp. i think c/f might be better in hand 2, but I see your thinking. I think you're right by saying you stand to lose a ton of money by calling the raise in hand 4... just isn't air enough of the time esp 5 way. Sometimes will be AQ which you block but an overwhelming majority of the time you're way behind

One thing is for sure, updating this thing is nowhere near as much fun when youre losing. My losing streak was -$3000 over 28 hours. Then I won $2050 over 26 hours. Then last 2 days I lost $1700 over 9 hours.

Losing streak stands at -$2650 over 63 hours. Break even streak has reached 100 hours.

Im sure this sounds like nothing to lots of people but I just dont streak up and down like this hardly ever. This is my 3nd worst losing streak in terms of dollars and length of time in over 600 sessions and over 2500 hours.

On a better note:

Ive been tracking my "questionable limps" for 65 hours now and I'm +$260. These are hands that most people probably should just fold preflop. Everyone's definition of this will be different. The point is to play more hands and at the very least be able to hit the breakeven mark on them to be seen as looser over all and get more action on your other hands. Here are 2 hands:

1) I limp 9s6s UTG. Pretty questionable obviously. We go 5 to the flop in a limped pot

Flop ($25) 7s4s6c. I bet $20 and get 2 calls
Turn ($85) 4h. I bet $50 and they both call
River ($235) Td. I check....they both check also. One had 99. The other had QQ.

2) Button straddles. I limp 8d6d in EP. We go 3 to the flop.
Flop ($35) 7h5c2s. EP whale bets $25. I call and we are HU.
Turn ($85) Th. He bets $65. I raise to $175. He folds.

-$75 on the first one.
+$115 on the second one.

I only got one premium in my next session. 5 limps. I make it $40 QQ from the SB and the BB makes it $100. FML.

1) I open $20 AA UTG. MP and button call
Flop ($65) 744. I check. MP checks. Button bets $40. I check raise to $100. He calls
Turn ($265) 8. I bet $155. He shoves. I call. He has 88

2) UTG limps. Folds to me in the SB with Tc7c. UTG and the BB are 2 of the biggest nits ever. I raise to $35. BB calls. UTG folds.

Flop ($75) Th7d5s. I bet $40. He calls.
Turn ($155) 9h. I bet $125. He shoves. Hes gonna have an overpair here like always. I call. He has 99.

I dont think anything else needs to be said about how Im running the past 2 weeks

I went back for an evening session last night.

Very first hand I get AT vs 33 on T63.
Next hand I play, I raise AJ. Short stack shoves. I call and lose to AK.

I raise KK and get 2 calls. Flop AJx. I check fold to a bet and a call.

I go 3 hours and win 1 hand. I leave disgusted again

Today I sit down with a fresh attitude.

Very first hand I play....AK vs JT on AKQ
Very next hand its a raised pot. I have TT vs 32 on 4433 board. I get 2 outted on the turn again.

Couple hands later I raise KQs. and get 2 calls. Flop K74 with a FD. I check. A guy with $175 bets $40. It folds back to me. I crai. He has AA and of course it holds up.

It goes on and on.

I had KK 4 times in 2 hours and only got called preflop once. I had to get up and leave after 2 hours. I can only get kicked in the teeth so many times and play anywhere near my A game.

Was this 1-2 or 2-5?

The AT vs 33 hand and AJ vs AK was at 1/2. Then my 2/5 seat opened up and I moved. Everything else has been at 2/5. Why do you ask?

So, what's your overall winning rate now and how does it break across stakes?

Less damage done at 1-2, presumably at least

So the variance is real?even for the unorthodox player like you? that's just gross man.. hopefully you'll get on the better side of it soon

I think you should try smaller sizing pre for 50 hours. 3x with like 99+/ATs+. Fold AQo- until lp. You can also open limp 44-88 and sometimes suited broadways. Overlimp everything but JJ+/AKs.

Finally, and this is your biggest leak, stop trying to end hands with your strong sdv. Stop being afraid of turns/rivers. You continue to check/raise value hands or bet large with your value hands in spots where worse rarely continues.

imo

???