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#3) I think you misread something. Nobody opened with 97 in any hand I posted.
Whoops, mb.
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QQ is almost always a 3 bet. I called this time because the good player was playing tight today and hadnt raised from EP all day.
Could have just been card dead and doesn't necessarily mean they've completely nitted up from that session onwards. I think you know this and I think you realise the benefits of 3betting outweigh the cons here. There's a HUGE difference between flatting QQ here and flatting AA.
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For a long time Ive been trying to determine if players are more likely to fire a big 2nd bet with weak hands or even air when their opponent calls a flop bet on a flush draw board.
This is just unnecessary man, you're making it way harder than it needs to be. This is not a HU SRP with super wide ranges - this is a million way hand where the last thing you need to be worrying about is whether some hypothetical player will bet twice. It's basically FPS - you have the nuts, raise. Get some value!
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In other words if he bets a 8d6h4c flop, will he check behind with an 8 but fire again on the turn if the board if 8d6h4d.
In a multiway pot where > half the deck are overcards/bad for 8x, the obv answer is they're not going to barrel. And if they do, you're not going to make much by raising when every turn is bad. Raise flop because you can still get value from a wider range of hands.
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#5) The flop QsJs4d. There are 2 draws and I think I have the best hand with KJ a lot of the time so I led out
That doesn't explain why you chose to bet instead of xc. You say yourself, people are going to cbet more than half the time, so why not xc instead of blowing potential cbets out of the pot?
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I know people here hate this logic but when I have a weakish hand but I think Im ahead, I think betting is better in general.
Once more I think you're misapplying this. If this were a 4-way limped pot and you had a weak top pair, sure, lead out. But this is a completely different situation. You can't lead/call, lead/folding sucks, and you're in the dark on every turn. Check the flop, acquire information about your opponents range, and proceed from there no?
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a) Strong player opens OTB to $15. I call with JsTs in the SB HU. I thought about 3 betting him but decided against it.
Flop ($35) KhTc3h. I check and he checks back
Turn ($35) 3d. I should be ahead here most of the time. I couldve led the flop but didnt. I could lead here but checked again. Now he bets $25. I cal
River ($85) 8s. I think my best play here is to lead out about $40. He might call with a very weak hand like A high or a mid pair like 66 putting me on a missed FD. Or he might just fold his garbage hands. Its unlikely he will raise me without a strong hand unless he wants to get frisky and make a big raise but again that's very rare.
Huh? How is leading the best play here? You have a bluff catcher. Very rarely will you get called by worse, often you'll get raised and not know what's going on, and every other time, you'll fold out his river bluffs. As winky said, he will have a LOT of river bluffs that take this line so you should be stoked about xc turn and river.
**** it's live poker cmon man how often are people overbetting river after checking flop. Just call turn and make a decision on the river instead of over-complicating it. FWIW, pretty sure folding river is the best choice. Realistically, he will cbet all his draws otf, and likely has some 3x in his xb range. He should have some KQ type **** as well and could feasibly bet this size w this hand. Don't think he has many draws that x flop bet turn and river so river fold is fine. But man just be careful, if this "good player" sees you lead w weak ranges too often, he's going to destroy you every time and you're gonna be folding 100%.
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That's why playing a tough playing OOP is a losing proposition.
That's not true at all. Some hands we simply have to defend oop because it's higher ev than folding our blind. If you're not confident playing OOP vs regs, you probably need to do some range work off-table.
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TBH mate winky has been spot on in absolutely everything he's said re your last post. IMO you should heed his advice instead of looking for ways to justify your play.