I never said it was a good idea. In general if you were to hedge something like this (you shouldn’t or why bet in the first place) you would wait until the Super Bowl. If KC loses in the first round they never had a shot anyway.

Check dms

The reason it doesn’t work is because the odds of the bet are effectively the same today as they were when the bet was placed. Oddsmakers are going to work out the scenarios of the playoff games and bake the odds of the potential matchups into the futures odds so you can’t just take a futures bet and hedge it every week into the SB. Since the odds BS got are the same as the current odds, it’s been figured out by sports books.

The only way hedging really works out mathematically is if BS’s bet from months ago had way better odds associated with it, then he could hedge through more or all of the playoffs, or waiting several games into the playoffs before hedging, maybe even waiting through all until the SB

The second quote is what I thought

The first quote was because I thought you were asking what hedging was. If you knew, then I misunderstood your question. I wasn’t advocating that he could do it through the entirety of the playoffs

I think hedging wouldn’t work here bc of the vig, which is paid both ways if you book a futures bet then hedge it. If you book at +500 it implies that the book thinks the true odds are worse, like +550 or whatever. If you could bet each game ex vig you should lock in a small loss (assuming lines you get are what they were expected to be when you made the futures bet). Since you have to also pay vig on those games, you’ll lose more.

Hedging also wouldn’t work if chiefs expectations go down after you bet, for instance if mahomes got hurt. In this case the lines would move away from the chiefs and you would effectively get worse odds to hedge each game, resulting in a loss. Another way to think about it is that if you bet 1k, your bet is worth 1k of ev (ex vig), but if mahomes gets hurt it might be worth 500 in ev so you lost 500 at that time. Hedging based on the new lines (ex vig) should then lock in your new ev of 500. This would work the other way too, so if chiefs expectations go up you could lock in a profit.

Its a moot point since BS ain't no *****.

Yes, should probably have lead with that

This hedge talk is funny.

Chiefs have been rolling lately and have a fairly dull path to the SB.

Game 1 - Steelers - LOL - Big Rapelessberger has been pitiful, would need a miracle to beat the chiefs

Game 2 - Most likely Bills/Bengals/Raiders - this is the bigger concern. Bills are the team to worry about most. Cincy did beat chiefs, but think Chiefs win a rematch in arrowhead. Chiefs crushed the Raiders twice so not as concerning.

Game 3 - AFC Championship - We are expecting the Chiefs to at least reach this game. This is where we can consider our hedge opportunities. Both on live and future wagers. Most likely looking at either AT Tennessee or Home vs a much weaker opponent. Ideal scenario is Titans getting upset by Patriots/Bengals.

Game 4 - Super Bowl - More hedging opportunities. Chiefs will face Green Bay and will have a battle for the ages.

Not most likely. Certainly.

Crypto back up. Are we seeing a bet on the Hoosiers tomorrow night? Also Woodson said he isn’t wearing a suit…

No I think I’m gonna wait until Purdue at home on 20th and see what the odds are. Of course, if xlm above .29. Trying to be a responsible sports better during this experiment.

_________

Trolls keep it spicy, haters drive me, supporters keep me in check. I need to just let things roll where they may. It’s all working just fine.
Stay up and after it dudes.

Maybe I missed an explanation somewhere but why are you tying your sports betting to the price of xlm? Isn’t the money for sports betting liquid or in a different place than your crypto account?

He cant pay his taxes if xlm is tanking. He would have to use his cash instead of selling some xlm.

All my money is in play w xlm. I don’t hv extra money to bet 2k weekly when xlm is below .29.
*Current avg .2849
When it’s above .29, I sell some and hv money to spend.

wtf kind of 40 yr old man acts this way with their life roll, but I guess it's not surprising given you post like a 20 yr old texts.

in after a post that made OP heaps of money.

A man with a impossible high self esteem, and thinks education is a big lie.

Thats real king ****. The peasants wouldn't understand.

huh? i don't get it?

I don't think he said it's a lie. From memory, it was more along the lines of "it's overrated".

If you need to know Rays stance on education. What's next abortion?

^^^

Talking about having too much time on his hands.

I was exaggerating about his views on education. He just thinks fromal education is a scam.

(I really would rather be sleeping right now.)

I did say I have too much time on my hands, but still not enough to call poker rooms to checkup on Trooper Thursday.

The call only took a few minutes