Started with a $1/$2nl challenge, now we're here. - Page 397 - Poker Blogs and Goals -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

You can so this on your own with DK account and using an exchange to lay the other side of the bet, making loss impossible unless you make an error. You then repeat this process again if your first bet loses into the exchange.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 12:55 PM

#9902

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

@Arbar I’m really just waiting for an example.
Someone, anyone on here give me an example.
I’ll give u a hypothetical w 2 players. Can any genius on here give me a hypothetical w 1?

Hypothetical on $1k ($500ea person)...

A win on UNDER:
$500+$476 = $976
$500 risk free for loser
$250 one side. $250 other side minus $25 ish juice. +$225

$976+$225 = $1,201.
Come out +$201
_______________________________

A win on OVER:
$500 + $435 = $935
$500 risk free for loser.

$250 one side. $250 other side minus $25 ish juice. +$225

$935 + $225 = $1,160
Come out +160

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:01 PM

#9903

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

Where did @Johnny_The_Spot go?
Delete ur comment? U said I’m hilarious that I don’t know this being a professional poker player.
I’ll wait for ur example on how I can get guaranteed money using one player.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

@Arbar I’m really just waiting for an example.
Someone, anyone on here give me an example.
I’ll give u a hypothetical w 2 players. Can any genius on here give me a hypothetical w 1?

Hypothetical on $1k ($500ea person)...

A win on UNDER:
$500+$476 = $976
$500 risk free for loser
$250 one side. $250 other side minus $25 ish juice. +$225

$976+$225 = $1,201.
Come out +$201
_______________________________

A win on OVER:
$500 + $435 = $935
$500 risk free for loser.

$250 one side. $250 other side minus $25 ish juice. +$225

$935 + $225 = $1,160
Come out +160

this is why it's hilarious. you don't even know he ****ing rules of what you're betting on...

you don't get to split your free $$ bet. it's (1) $500 free money bet., not (2) $250 bets. do you think companies like fanduel are stupid???

jfc, i shouldn't even tell you this. i should have let you figure it out on your own after you lose $500 and then try to split it.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:06 PM

#9904

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Does this mean ur not gonna give me an example @Johnny_On_Spot?

Oh and on the credit split...

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:25 PM

#9905

ArBar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,106

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

Bet on a 50/50 outcome:

0.5z+(0.5)[Qy+(1-Q)y] = 0.5z+0.5y solo bet payoff

Team bet: z+y. 0.5z+0.5y per person payoff

Ignores vig but whatever.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:29 PM

#9906

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArBar

Bet on a 50/50 outcome:

0.5z+(0.5)[Qy+(1-Q)y] = 0.5z+0.5y solo bet payoff

Team bet: z+y. 0.5z+0.5y per person payoff

Ignores vig but whatever.

How bout we simplify this for all the geniuses.
Looking for a hypothetical using any dollar amount you want up to $500?
Still waiting. Everyone rushing to say I’m hilarious u can do this w one player, yet no one has gave me an example.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:29 PM

#9907

ArBar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,106

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

How bout we simplify this for all the geniuses.
Looking for a. Hypothetical using any dollar amount you want up to $500?
Still waiting. Everyone rushing to say I’m hilarious u can do this w one player, yet no one has gave me an example.

Plug in 500 for z. 250 for y.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:30 PM

#9908

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArBar

Plug in 500 for z. 250 for y.

Yeah plug it in.
I lose $500 and then I get $500 credit. What’s ur next play?

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:34 PM

#9909

ArBar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,106

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

Yeah plug it in.
I lose $500 and then I get $500 credit. What’s ur next play?

y of 250 is the next play lmfao. Both outcomes are built into the expected value.

It's really basic probability and math.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:38 PM

#9910

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

So what then are u betting next w credit?

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:41 PM

#9911

ArBar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,106

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

So what then are u betting next w credit?

So you don't understand expected value then?

Half the time you win the first bet 0.5z

When you lose, you get a payout from wagering half credit on either side which gives a payout of y (which is half z).

This also backs up a lot of the strategy talk in this thread. A complete lack of basic understanding of probability makes it hard to be good at poker.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:46 PM

#9912

Alpha Fish

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,845

update didn't disappoint

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:48 PM

#9913

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

I understand expected value, possibilities, odds, and all other statistics.
My question is, show me how u can win GUARANTEED money using 1 player. Use any dollar amount up to $500 for ur example.

Still waiting!

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:50 PM

#9914

ArBar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,106

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

Ok reading comprehension is also hard for you. Check.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:55 PM

#9915

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArBar

Ok reading comprehension is also hard for you. Check.

Really all u hv to do is give me an example using $500.
Let’s see if u understand reading comprehension. Can u not answer what ur next play is after u lose your first $500 bet?

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:56 PM

#9916

ArBar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,106

Okay. Bet 500 on each side of the first outcome yourself. Done.

You are really bad at math.

Asking the question again I answered earlier literally again drives home that you have no idea what expected value is.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 01:59 PM

#9917

uberkuber

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,048

@BS:
You lose your 500$. Gets credited back.
250$ on over, 250$ on under.
You cash out your winner (250$ ignoring vig).

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:02 PM

#9918

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArBar

U only get credit back on your FIRST BET!
What if u win your first bet? Lose the second?
Are you winning GUARANTEED money? Yes or no

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:03 PM

#9919

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by uberkuber

@BS:
You lose your 500$. Gets credited back.
250$ on over, 250$ on under.
You cash out your winner (250$ ignoring vig).

Ur losing money in this scenario.
Still waiting

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:06 PM

#9920

Johnny Upton

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 55

Is FD really going to let you play both sides of a bet using promo credit? I would be surprised if they would even let you do that using in game betting as a work around.

If they do let you...you have to consider there is a non-zero chance that your account(s) will be suspended and you lose $1,000. Using accounts like this is clearly a violation of the TOS.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:09 PM

#9921

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpha Fish

update didn't disappoint

No doubt. Guys are unreal on here

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:12 PM

#9922

ButterflySymmetry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Upton

Is FD really going to let you play both sides of a bet using promo credit?

Per customer support, yes. Pic already shown itt.

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:13 PM

#9923

wj294

adept

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,121

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Upton

FD will let you place those bets, but they'll likely forfeit any winnings as it is a clear violation of T&C.

OP, I have literally told you how to achieve this risk free with a return of ~85-90% of the free bet value. Are you purposefully trolling lol?

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:14 PM

#9924

ArBar

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,106

Rayz you are so insufferable and unintelligent.

Bet 500 on first bet. Bet 400 on opposite outcome.

Guaranteed money. Can you work out the dollar value of the guaranteed money if the probabilities are all 1/2 and there is no vig?

Quote

02-03-2020 , 02:18 PM

#9925

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry

your EV is the same for 1 v 2 players

1 player:
50% 500 win
50% 500 lose => 100% 250 win

[(.5)(500) + (.5)(250)]/1 player = 375 per player

2 players:
100% 500 win
100% 500 lose => 100% 250 win

[(1)(500)+(1)(250)]/2 players = 375 per player

Quote

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