[QUOTE=ButterflySymmetry;38478548]In one word, No. I primarily posted this hand to try to get opinions from 2 questions I've been wavering on.
My first question) Do u still shove on turn even if
u know he has AQ?
My 2nd question) In your opinion, What % of the time does a "thinking player w AQ fold there on the turn? (Just a ballpark estimate is all I'm looking for, I understand its hard to tell wo being there).
This was the only reason for me to post this hand. Whatcha think @h_ven and @boilref and others? Please help a brother out! Thanks so much
1. Based on my EV calculation I think shoving is absolutely the correct play. You need very little fold equity to be profitable. Also, as we discussed I think it is +EV over checking based on the fact that you are not very likely to get paid off on any
or K.
2. I think the percentage may be low against a "thinking" player. I would put myself in that category and like others said if I am folding it is going to be on the flop absent a scare card. Without being there it is hard to tell, but in an hour playing against you I may realize that you are raising in position to pot-build and control the hand and take over-pairs out of your range thinking you would raise more with those. I think the lead out by the villain makes this hand interesting. What is he trying to accomplish? If he is "trying to find out where he is" then he would have folded to the raise. Does the lead out change your perception of him folding v check calling a pot sized flop bet? Which one is more likely Ax
?