Sorry Ray, I used different numbers to calculate then what you had suggested. My bad.

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4 days
15 pots/day > $20 = $15/day * .25 (because 4 players) = $3.75
10 pots/day you donate $1 + 10 pots/day felted opponent donate $1 = $20/day

So based on this you (indirectly because of felting opponents ) are donating roughly $23.75 a day towards BBJ x 4 days = $95 a week

$95/week x 52 = $4940

That seems absurdly high

This also assumes that all hands played between yourself and felted opponent you all donated $1 towards the total BBJ, which simply cannot be true, because there had to be at least 1 other opponent.

So let's say

$3.75 from 15 pots of 4 opponents
$5.00 from 10 pots you win (against 1 other opponent)
$5.00 from 10 pots felted opponent won (against 1 other opponent)

$13.75/day x 4 days x 52 weeks = $2,860


I guess you would also have to consider at which point the dollar is taken out. It is not taken out at the end of the hand, but in the middle, which I think is the reason you must look at it fractionally.

I would speculate (with a 95% confidence) that the amount that you contribute to the bad beat jackpot is somewhere between $2860 < x <$4940

Every pot you win when the drop is taken you have $1 less than you would have if there was no bbj. I don't see the point in number of players or at what point in the pot it was taken out.

That puts the number closer to the $5000.

Look at the number on the wall and all that money would be in the pockets of the players if it wasn't there. You are one of the higher volume players so a lot of that money would be yours.

In cincy a larger share is given back in promotions which I think makes it a better deal for the players.

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[QUOTE=tswpoker1;45155482]

I guess you would also have to consider at which point the dollar is taken out. It is not taken out at the end of the hand, but in the middle, which I think is the reason you must look at it fractionally.

I don't agree with this.

It's like the tipping topic all over again.

if you are asking how much of a negative the BBJ is to you there is more involved than just the numbers you quoted. And since you quoted the numbers so specifically, it IS just a math problem, and frankly, I am not inclined to work that much toward an answer that seems pretty meaningless.

Why meaningless? There are lots and lots of factors that are very individual to you.

1. What style do you play? If you play larger pots, you will be affected more.

2. What style do the other tables play? IF they play differently they will affect your ability to win the BBJ (and they may actually increase your EV )

3. What happens to the money that the BBJ recipients win? Someone had a great point that large scores typically have less chance to stay inside the poker economy. But not always.... we have all heard of WSOP / WPT / EPT winners playing High Stakes all of a sudden (I, for one, saw Eric Afriat walk into Bobby's Room less than a month ago, pretty sure he has not been a regular for that long )

4. What stakes are you playing? The higher stakes tables probably get fewer new players due to the BBJ than the 1/3 tables. Your results may vary.

These are just a few of the intangibles that go into these things...

others ? theft, admin fees, passivity of play overall, lack of chopping blinds with certain hands, etc etc etc

which

[QUOTE=NineDollars;45155847] Why not?

My argument is that whether or not you win the hand, or lose the hand, you still have to pay your percentage of the dollar (dependent upon the number of players in the hand) towards the BBJ.

You aren't paying the $1 in addition to the pot, you are paying the dollar as a percentage of the pot, therefore IF you are in the pot are you always obligated to pay your share.

It is essentially rake. You have to pay it every hand win or lose (depending on pot size of course).

If you use the logic that you are only donating to the pot when you lose (fractionally), but are paying the $1 out of the pots that you win (wholly) that just doesn't make sense. What about the other 4 players you just tangled with to win that pot? Didn't they contribute to the dollar as well? You are pushed the pot with the money already removed, so you can't add it as an additional cost to the overall pot.

Going off of that I think a more logical method of calculating total losses to the BBJ, you must think about a number of factors:
- How many hands per hour are played where there is $1 pushed towards BBJ ($20)
- Average number of players per hand played
- How many hours per day
- How many days per week
- How many weeks per year

OK, so let's assume there are 30 hands per hour played (conservative, probably on low end).

That's 180 hands in a 6 hour day.

Going off of Rayz numbers he plays roughly 35 hands per day that contribute towards BBJ.
Let's assume that there are an average of 4 players per hand.

So daily contribution for Rayz would be 35 x ($1.00 x 4) = $8.75
Weekly contribution for Rayz would be $8.75 x 4 = $35.00
Annual contribution for Rayz would be $35.00 x 52 = $1,820

That's my final answer. I believe other numbers are inflated for reasons stated above (I even had to re-evaluate my own previous calculations after re-thinking the situations). Of course this is all my own logic and opinion and I could be wayyyyy off, but this is my two cents.

If you played 100 hours and never won a pot your loss would be the same regardless of the rake or bbj. If they raked 100% it wouldn't matter because you never won a hand anyway. Therefore, how are you contributing on hands you don't win?

There is a net loss of money in the game which could affect you if you rarely scoop a pot, but if everyone re - buys to cover it that wouldn't matter either.

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BS just in case you are giving away a prize I want to answer. Math is hard, but my guess with the details you provided is $5,555. My answer is without doing any calculations on paper, only in my head.
I am one who thinks the fish will come regardless of the poker room having a bbj, or not. The fish part is neutral for me.
Tsw I understand the logic, but there can't be any fractions of the dollar taken. The $1 is taken away from you even if butterfly donated part of it. It is one less dollar he raked in. Butterfly is asking for the dollar amount he loses out on due to the dollar drop, not donated.
I side with Boilref’s and Ninedollars rational.

Subscribed to my very first thread. I been following from the start, but this question got me to finally post. Isn't it just
($1x15*4)+10=70*52=$3,640 a year with the numbers given? Then I guess you can add or subtract fish appeal for BBJ.
Nice thread, I'll post more where I see fit.

I believe that once chips go into a pot they are now part of the pot and thus no longer mine or my opponents. Pretty simple, basic poker mentality in my mind.

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Here’s what I came up with. Let me preface this by saying my answer is based on my play, and what I feel I’m losing to the Bad Beat Jackpot over the course of any given year.

REMEMBER: JUST TALKING ABOUT LOSING OUT FROM THE $1 TAKEN FOR BAD BEAT. NOT TALKING ABOUT DONATING TO BAD BEAT, RAKE, WAITRESS/DEALER TIPS, MASSUESE, ETC. WE ARE JUST TALKING ABOUT THE $1 TAKEN FROM EACH POT OVER $20.

Things to consider:

-some BBJ dollars go back into promotions. I.E. Tourney vouchers, Splash the pot, Aces Cracked, mini bad beat, straight flush/royal flush promo, etc.

I think for me, I have to put a $ amount on whether I’m IN THE BLACK OR RED on these promos. I know I’ve lost a few all ins on “Splash the Pot” that cost me hundos. But on the flip, I have won a few too. The “Tourney Voucher” giveaway -sometimes I win these, sometimes I pay for these transferable vouchers. “Aces Cracked” - moronic promo, don’t even want to talk about it. Never hit a mini bad beat, and may have had a couple straight flush/royal flush that pay an extra $50. Overall, I’m gonna say +$650 up on the daily promos by year’s end[/B]. *Worth noting, a lot of these promos effect how I play each hand. Fwiw, I like promos that don’t alter how one plays a hand. Promos such as: Payback for hours played promo, high card for tourney voucher promo, 1st 10 to sit in a game gets $x promo, etc.

-does/doesn’t BBJ bring in more dead money? #BBJeffect

For me, I say very minimal. Although, I hv noticed that many rec players are playing more qualifiers where they may fold if there wasn’t a BBJ. Also agree the big BBJ may bring in a few more players…BOTH recreational and solids. Believe it or not, many “once a month type players” really have no clue if the BBJ even exist, or the $ amount attached to it, or the qualifying hand. These players just want to play poker for entertainment purposes. The BBJ is not the motivation for these players to play. They will continue to come w or wo BBJ. The “dead money” #BBJeffect argument I will say +$450/year.

Now Lets Talk #s w the data given:

*Please Note- I feel these #s given are skewed to the conservative side.

Given Data- 15 pots won/day where $1 BBJ drop taken. Felting 1 player/day that has won 10 pots (where drop was taken) prior to me felting. Working 4 days/wk. Based on 24hrs/wk

-So 15 winning pots is $15 dollars taking from me each day.
-Felting 1 player that won 10 pots (where drop was taken) prior to felting is $10 more dollars taken from me/day.
The opposite is true (that I failed to consider)…
-times I double up from someone who has me covered (not felting). I wd say this may happen twice a week (based on 4 days/wk), or .5/day. So now I wd have to put a # on how many hands I won (where drop is taking) prior to doubling up. I’ll say 7 pots won (where $1 drop taken) prior to doubling through Villain. So that equals 7 less dollars I wd have on my stack that Villain cd double = 7x2=$14. If I double up twice a wk = $28 taken from me/wk.

If ya with me so far, let’s put into a formula:

$1 drops from 15pots/day ------$15 X 4 days/we = $60 taken/wk
$10 for felting a player/day ----------$10 x 4 days/wk = $40 taken/wk
Doubling through Villain -------$28 taken/wk.

($60+$40+$28)52wks = $6,656 taken each year due to $1 BBJ drop.
Intangibles….$6,656 – $650 (promotional $ given back daily promos) - $450 (the BBJ effect…) = -$5,556 AT LEAST TAKEN FROM ME DUE TO BBJ (skewed toward conservative side)!

Damn son, who said $5,5555?! What @Yster! Holy Cow that’s nuts !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-Appreciate the feedback, and the intangible factors u guys mentioned. This thread is full of brains. This is just my prediction on my $s I lose each year due to BBJ. MY #s will differ from yours.

Got the patch kit in the mail today. Time to patch up the trampoline while listening to one favorite bands.
Here's a taste...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2UIqhXd0uE
810,Rayz

Funny how we all seem to have our own way of estimating the BBJ number only to end up with very similar numbers. No matter how you calculate it, if you are a consistent player you are losing a lot of hard earned money each year to ridiculous promotions like BBJs.

Ray- on a side note, I heard some of the funniest things I've ever heard at a poker table last night, thought I would share...

First was from a player who was trying to be nice and showed his inferior hand after he did what he thought was a value bet on the river and got a better hand to fold- "I wasn't bluffing... I'm just a terrible player!"

Second was 2 novice players talking about their overall misfortune in poker- "If you play long enough the cards will always get you in the end."

I thought these were hilarious... maybe you had to be there. Haha!

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Maybe money taken out of the game needs to be factored in but I don't think it's as simple as saying a felted player would have had X more $.

What if player A always reloads when he gets below a certain amount. What if, because he is short, he decides to get it all in with you and maybe wouldn't have otherwise. Perhaps he got it all in with another player because he was short and doubled up before you felted him.

If you're in a game where most people continue to top off their stacks then I think the effect is negligible.

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Ray have you ever tried to give PLO a chance. Obviously your a great nl player and someone who puts as much thought/time into the game as you could probably crush in no time. Besides there is no bad beat drop in PLO at least not here in Cincy

Ray, how much tougher do you think the avg. $2/$5 table at HSI is than the avg. $1/$2 table at HSI?

@plochrisc appreciate the accolades. I hv played a little PLO, but just prefer nl more. I feel my edge is bigger in no limit than PLO. I always kind of felt nl is more skillful. What u guys think? Which game requires more skill? Many think that no limit is a solved game, but I really disagree at this notion.

Church was gd today. Really it actually never disappoints. It always gives me a sense of calm that I long for. It's always refreshing to know the Jesus has overcame all of our sins. Not just sins, but worries, struggles, illness, etc. Because of this, I hv realize that it's meaningless to sweat any negativity that life throws at us. Why sweat it when one day it will seem so insignificant? The world that God created is so massively large that our minuscule life here is really just a blink of an eye of what eternity will feel like in Heaven.
I must admit I hv been facing sm demons over the last decade that has been getting worse lately. The demons I'm referring to is an anxiety disorder. It's been really tough for me lately dealing w anxiety, but I feel prayer has helped tremendously. I can't tell u how many times I had to leave the poker room, restaurants, grocery stores, etc. early because of anxiety. It's been really bad lately, and taking my life hostage. I'm trying to change my diet, trying meditation, trying vitamins, trying everything I can to beat this illness because these attacks r the absolute worst feeling in the world. It's actually pretty embarrassing to even mention it on this thread, but don't really care. A couple weeks ago I remember sitting down in the poker room, and leaving just 9 mins into the session because of another an anxiety attack coming on. The symptoms consist of rapid heart beat, vertigo, vision impairment, and weird out of body feelings. All of this combined feels like death is looming. These symptoms seems to b happening more frequent and more intense lately. The Ativan helps a little, but I'm also trying other alternative healing. I'm almost scared to play in tournaments nowadays because I just don't know if I can get through them. I never know when it will happen, and don't want to risk losing a buy in. Don't know if anxiety is a genetic disorder or not because i know my grandma suffered from it badly. My greatest fear is that it will get worse, and I will experience agoraphobia just like my grandma.
On that not, I'm playing the HPO starting Thursday w Ativans on hand.

Mayb I shd erase everything I just said...nah who cares what people think.
Anyways feel free to make fun. Screw it, I'm posting this. #fulltransparencythread
Ray

Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can.

Arthur Ashe

I wd say it def depends on the line up! On an average it plays slightly tougher, but a few sharks in that game can change the whole dynamic. The Friday 5/10/20nl hasn't gone in a few weeks, so some of the big time pros r playing 2/5/10 instead. I wd say Wed and Sat r the most optimal days, and Fridays can b too depending on line up. There r always some great spots in that game, but also some great players. It's a gd mixture which usually makes for a great game. There were 3 regs in the 5/10/20nl that got top 15 in the WSOP main event last month if that tells u how tough the 2/5 can b at times. Pick and choose the times u play in that game.
Fwiw, the 2/5 at Cincy is comparable to the level of play of 1/2 at HSI...mayb even softer...just from my experience & small sample size w Cincy.

@souped-up weasel I like it! Thanks

I really respect and admire your openness and honesty that you give us in this thread. I wish you the best.

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Ditto! This is the reason I follow, and wish you success.

That is crazy. I tried looking up the top 15 and nobody looked familiar. You aren't being serious are you?

I think he meant WSOP Circuit Main Event

That makes a little more sense. I think you are right.

If it gives you any comfort at all I also suffer from an anxiety disorder. I know EXACTLY what you are going through in terms of it taking over your life. If you ever need support or just want to talk, feel free to PM me.