welll..... i guess thats all the deep runs i can expect for another year

gg me. guess i'm pretty well suited for an HMV job.

Just read through your thread pal...

Very interesting read.

Don't give in, keep positive and the results will come.

Constantly losing flips deep in a big bird is rough to take. It will end though.

Keep your chin up.

Sent from my SM-G920F using 2+2 Forums

hey watermolonz

Yeh im sorry you had to read this thread instead of my more cheerful previous ones! thanks for understanding mate

and thanks for the words of encouragement

I wish you the best of luck if you are grinding at the moment

you could try cashgames if you want less variance lol, you seem to be handling it somewhat poorly

hehe tried that bro
not good at cash


also, what the actual fk has happened to like 20 pages of my thread?!??!

where have they gone?!?!?! apparently this is page 9?!?!?!? wtf

Maybe a mod deleted it because of all the whining

it seems every pages contains many more posts now

Well you can fk off.

Ohhh, that's interesting, will look.

+1, too much whining ITT

vittu

you can do the same. don't come in here for the first time and tell me what is too much whining. GTFO of here you C U N T

gogo solid

cheers

It seems that some people need some quantitative reasons for my downheartedness and whining. Yes, I have been moaning a lot, and here is why.

I ran a few calculations on PokerDope that helps give figures on confidence intervals and standard deviation/probability of loss etc. So here goes.

My downswing has lasted 10 months. For a reasonable part of this I was kind of meh/not bothered as I had ran really well previous to this. However, this year it has really been upsetting me.

I have stepped up EVERYTHING in terms of workrate, effort and volume. Ive tanked $10k in 6.5k games. This is since my last MTT score. It includes SNGs and MTTs. SNGs I should print, MTTs are MTTs.



My average buy in is $30.

If I take JUST the MTTs, my ABI is $20. MY EV for the last 10 months is $45k. I am 5 figures down.



This says there is a 0.03% chance I would have a losing sample of this size. That is a losing sample - so -10$ counts as losing. What are the chances I would lose $10k+? Not very much.

My winrate is better than most you will see (hands from 2016 only(you know, that year I became terrible at poker)):





But as every hand passes, I run just a little bit worse. It is soul destroying. Due my EV and the effort I have put in away from the tables in addition to the hours I have spent at them, it has made the whole situation more painful for me. It really sucks. People have run worse than me, sure, but it still hurts.

HOWEVER, THIS HAPPENED. It has happened and there is nothing I can do about it.

But then, I get some prick come in and tell me that there is TOO MUCH WHINING IN MY THREAD. NO ****.

Maybe one should consider why someone might moan and generally feel terrible before coming to the very sharp conclusion that there is a large amount of whining coming from said person.

Well I said it earlier and I will say it again. You are a tw@t and you can do one.

AND DONT WORRY, if things go badly tonight, I MIGHT MOAN A LITTLE MORE. If I do, and it bothers you, come find me at a live event somewhere, and tell me to my face that I moan too much. See how well that works out for you.

You prick.

Hey mate, I see in the calc you used a 70% av roi. I dont think that is correct. GL recovering, eventually it will turn.

Damn son, the downswing is real!



Variance , hard to deal with.

How did you come up with 70% roi, that seems quite high even tho I know nothing about MTTs.

well, I used a 70% ROI because:

1. my actual ROI is 78/79% lifetime mtts
2. vast majority of this volume is low stake, reg speed MTTs.

this is MTTs lifetime with an abi of 20$. My ABI this year has been 20$.



I think 70% is reasonable. Even if it is 40-50% we are still looking at low risk of (any amount of)loss.

Ok, so ran it with 40% ROI which I can guarantee is lower than actual regardless of how low an opinion people now have of me:



3% probability of loss, and my actual loss appears to be 0.3% probability.

Changing topic slightly, the recent comedian to post ITT is not vastly appreciated.

lol are you serious you ran hot as the sun the first 9k games and now that the graph has stopped shooting to the moon you wine and act like you're the unluckiest person in the world?

Get a grip.