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Poker Blogs and Goals Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

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Old 09-28-2015, 03:03 PM   #76
acbarone
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

Don't mean to be harsh here, but it's only 30 buy-ins.

Even with a 50 cEV there's going to be some nasty variance. For the month I'm at 55 cEV and 120 BI below EV. Spins are naturally going to have super high variance because of the added multiplier variance on top of the normal in game swings.
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Old 09-29-2015, 08:07 AM   #77
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

Quote:
Originally Posted by acbarone View Post
Don't mean to be harsh here, but it's only 30 buy-ins.

Even with a 50 cEV there's going to be some nasty variance. For the month I'm at 55 cEV and 120 BI below EV. Spins are naturally going to have super high variance because of the added multiplier variance on top of the normal in game swings.
Thanks, this sounds nasty! It's 50BI now and since I am mixing it's like 75 of my ABI... But yeah I kind of know what I am getting myself into by playing Spins and the last couple tilty sessions were more like 5 chips a game, so that doesn't help either lol. Just really annoyed, I made $500 in 1 whole year (actual cash out) hard to justify to people (and to myself) why I am still part timing poker when I could be doing other things instead. I probably will be trying out some other formats and maybe other sites soon... GL me, still 1 day left this month, might hit that 90k .
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Old 09-29-2015, 09:13 AM   #78
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

"Hard to justify [...]".

Hate to be " that guy" but you've been saying this for like 1-2(+?) years now, right?

Sounds like as good a time as any to quit (maybe take the last 10k vpps).
People tend to think someone is a loser if they quit. "Winners never quit and quiters never win" etc. Very often that simply is not the case. I'd argue that quitting, when even considered, in most cases is in fact optimal.

http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/30/n...e-of-quitting/

Those are my 2c anyway.


Hope you pull through either way though. Your cEV seem okayish so I cannot blame you if you continue giving it a shot.

GL w/ everything, Somebull
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Old 09-29-2015, 09:55 AM   #79
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

^^ Thanks Sauron! No worries, I appreciate honesty. I already quit doing poker full time (done half of 2013 and most of 2014 which was a disaster more or less ) so I was hoping I could make some money on the side for now with a few hours a day of poker with the slight hope that I make so much $ that I could drop the other stuff again and give this a second full time go (this is deep down what I want to happen career wise!).

Business is doing ok so I don't rely on poker money anymore which is a very good thing but wasting hours without return, hmmm. I do always have this nagging feeling I should be able to make some really good monies with poker if I apply myself more or whatever, I am not a terrible player but obviously far from Elite. I just can't really quit for now.

I am definitely trying for 100k VPPs and then re-evaluate in December (29k left and unless a miracle happens tomorrow I will be doing it at 15s only) but if I lose my BR that will likely be the end of playing poker for me for good.

Will listen to that podcast tonight ..
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Old 09-30-2015, 06:24 AM   #80
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

Month 6:

15s:



30s:



Total:



My Bankroll right now:



What can I say, it's time to cut my losses and move back down to 15s next month, my EV didn't look very good at 30s anyhow. Unless I got +$4k in BR again and make at least 60 chips/2000 games at 15s I won't be loading 30s again this year for sure!

My Lifetime Spin Graph:

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Old 10-02-2015, 10:31 AM   #81
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

I am back at 15s and will most likely be for rest of the year, a bit disappointed that my 30s shot did not stick again but that's ok now. I am fairly sure that I still should be a winning player at 15s (maybe a few chips less) now that avoiding other regs with SpinWiz is no longer possible but we will see how much the impact really is after a bit of a sample.

So I have just done the math on what I need to do to maintain my Supernova. Basically October and November I should try for 2500-3000 games each and then I can can do the remaining 1000-2000 games in half of December, the timing is good since I will be mostly home the next 2 months with a bit more time for poker (trying some new diet that requires all home-cooked meals so I can't really leave ) and also I will be trying to get in shape again for the winter which I surely will not spend in Europe, hopefully I can grind out some travel monies .

So yeah my goals for this month are simple: 2500+ games, ignore BR and Graphs except every Sunday after last session, play my best and don't break any computer equipment lol.
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Old 10-11-2015, 08:48 AM   #82
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

Done about 1200 games since SpinWiz disappeared at 49 chips/game (obv. not making money) but I also added an extra table to get some more VPPs and have an easy December so I am not sure how much this has an impact but my games definitely have a lot more regs in them now. This happened more than a few times now: load 4 games, all 2x multipliers and sitting there with pretty much the same regs on each table, knowing you have no way of beating rake in this set lol.

Also I have been talking to a stable that would put me into 30s right away and try push for 60s/100s by years end but I am just not sure this is what I want (still thinking about the offer tho, I am definitely tempted). I probably would jump at a 75-25 deal with coaching, go hard on studies, cut other projects that take away my time and really give this poker career a second chance but doubt those kind of offers exist for spins unless you are a mega crusher already haha.

What I really want is to try out some other sites and other formats, but being 24k VPPs away from SN with a bit more than 2 months to go would be silly I think.
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Old 10-21-2015, 12:25 PM   #83
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

I have decided against the staking offer now and I am semi decided that I won't be playing Spins next year. My EV is looking pretty bad now, last time I checked I saw 37/game in a 2k sample, no wonder, I am pretty much playing the same regs all day and I assume fish are mostly trying to hit that $1M in 50 cents or $5 spins, heck even I am tempted to load them, wp Stars lol...
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Old 10-21-2015, 01:32 PM   #84
be water my friend
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

Wouldn't it maybe even make sense to you to use this promo & jump into the $5?

When I get it right you are now playing:
4 tabling $15 (with 5% rake) at 37chip/game -> evRIO is about 2%

So when you double your tables & crazy multitable the $5 you got:
8 tabling $5 (with 7% rake) you only need 54chip/game to get a evRIO of 3%, which would give you the same hourly rate.

And I guess more than 54chip/game would be easy for you at the $5. Or don't you like playing so many tables at the same time?
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Old 10-21-2015, 01:57 PM   #85
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

Quote:
Originally Posted by be water my friend View Post
Wouldn't it maybe even make sense to you to use this promo & jump into the $5?

When I get it right you are now playing:
4 tabling $15 (with 5% rake) at 37chip/game -> evRIO is about 2%

So when you double your tables & crazy multitable the $5 you got:
8 tabling $5 (with 7% rake) you only need 54chip/game to get a evRIO of 3%, which would give you the same hourly rate.

And I guess more than 54chip/game would be easy for you at the $5. Or don't you like playing so many tables at the same time?
Doubling tables is MUCH easier to say than do. Remember that once one person busts you could then be potentially 8-tabling HU versus 8 different opponents. Even if they're all fish that's a big ask
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Old 10-21-2015, 10:41 PM   #86
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

^ Yeah, 8 tabling is not an option for me . I jokingly told my wife to masstable 50 cent spins and she thought I was serious and loaded a set of 10 games , she looked pretty tensed but made $5 in that set lol.

When I started Spins I kept loading 6 games at once and wait until the last table was busted/won then loaded another 6, now I am doing 4 tables and reloading 2 more once 2 are gone and if I get in 3-4 tables HU I am pretty tensed myself. My sweet spot is 3 tabling but I want to be done as early as possible in December with SN so I added an extra table.
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Old 10-22-2015, 12:16 PM   #87
be water my friend
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

I just thought: maybe you are capable of crazy multi-tabling. As a winning player at the $15 you have surely enough skill advantage at the $5 even when you play like a robot.

btw: 10-tabling thge $0,50 with a RIO of 100% seems like a solid plan
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Old 10-24-2015, 11:34 AM   #88
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

^ Not so sure about winning player anymore , last few days have been terrible again and as usual in my bad runs I make it worse by playing like a donkey.. I just want to be done with Supernova and hope to get out of this year with a decent BR that will allow me to try a bunch of different stuff next year, perhaps even PLO as I got pretty interested in the game now, I tried playing a few hours yesterday at the lowest micro stake and done a couple reloads lol (still trying to figure out how this is game is actually played ), idk this could be something I might enjoy for a while, will just watch a couple videos everyday and see where this goes .
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Old 11-21-2015, 01:37 PM   #89
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

Hi, lately I played against you a few times in my $5 limit. I hope you didn't go down the stakes because you kept running so bad... So how is it going & what is your experience at the $5s?
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Old 12-27-2015, 04:02 PM   #90
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Re: Simple Goals: SN 2015 at 15s Spins and $1 a game for SomeBull (Poni)

hi Toni, with the expected 2016 changes to SN and SNE reward system, do you reckon it's probably not worth going for volume?
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