Reviewing February and Looking Ahead to March
Play and Study
I noticed that I’d been lazily avoiding my PKO marked hands for months, so quickly decided to shift my study focus there for this month. This turned out to be a great decision as it became very apparent that I suck at PKOs and was butchering most spots – too tight when supposed to gamble, too loose at certain stages, completely misplaying my ranges preflop by not understanding the PKO implications. It wasn’t a super successful month results-wise, and it’s easy to feel that my play was poor at times. I felt I was sporadically autopiloting, not keeping up the aggression, and some of my hotspots were just not working. This is why it’s important to review with data, as having reviewed my stats for the month, my frequencies were actually pretty good, and my hotspots were doing fine. For example, I felt that XR from the BB was never working, everyone was playing back, but when I actually looked in Hand2Note, my air XRs were printing. My evbb/100 was 9.3 so although it felt bad at times, I think I actually played pretty decent.
Logistics and Life Balance
I’d give myself a ‘B’ here. Things didn’t completely derail but I lacked the complete discipline I had in January.
One thing that worked well again was having a clear off-period and a clear grind-mode period throughout the month. I heard Pads on the Mechanics of Poker podcast talking about how he takes months off to focus on routines, study and health and then goes full blast during the series. I can do a mini version of this where I take a week out of the month to do this, and I like how it has worked this month and last. After grinding, I’m keen to study everything, and after studying hard, I’m keen to try everything out so it’s a productive cycle. My strain and recovery were both down this month too, although I was injured for parts of it. For the start of next month, I need an injection of discipline, so I’ll schedule everything out for the first week. Generally, I like more levels of freedom, but the schedule helps to get back on track.
Results
Other Sites: +1747 over 325 games
GG: -1292.42 over 198 games (GG Masters got me ☹)
Rakeback: 342.44
Total: 797.02
Some Hands from the Month
Instructive Hand
PKO playing vs short allin
Players should play flat only here as they want to get involved super wide for the bounty and protect their calling range. Since we are uncapped, players behind should also play heavy call, but as shown here I think people iso way too much in the spots, making trapping a good exploit (as well as theory approved)
Out of the Box Play
I was playing off-script here but my ideas in navigating this spot was:
- Pretty connected flop. My fold equity is reduced here and I didn’t really want to commit to a big triple barrel on a below average board with about 20 people left. If we see a checkback, our fold equity will increase. If he bets, we can happily continue.
- On the river brick, I felt that my fold equity with a bet wasn’t great.
- I know that recreationals will overbluff this spot, including with some merged hands that could simply check back (e.g they may ‘bluff’ A5 or similar). My idea was that by XR we collect a bet from pure bluffs and actually increase our fold equity on something like A5, 33 etc.
Does the data back me up?
- We see recreationals fold 37% to cbet in this line on the flop. However, on mid-connected like this, it drops to 30%.
- If flop goes check-check, the delay bet works 44% overall (vs 37%) and 47% (vs 30%) on this board texture, though samples are small when filtering for board texture.
- On the river, after X-X, B-C, the river barrel works 50% across all textures.
- After they bet the river, there is no sample on them getting XR’d, but here is their betting composition:
Quite a lot of bluffs and also some mergy low pairs in there as expected. Overall, can’t necessarily confirm the play with data, but I like my thought process.
Punt of the Month
I’m not sure how big of a punt this is. Solver shoves very very low frequency on the river with this hand. However, it was a PKO, giving him better odds. Also, the breakeven bluff relies on him finding a lot of folds with two pair, hands like JT. He’s a good player so maybe he does, but I think usually if you’re relying on the opponent to hero fold it’s probably not a great idea to bluff, especially when covered in a PKO.