This

Sure that those 500k hands are enough to say I'm a winner at 50z (2bb-6bb maybe? ), the thing is that I have 150k on 100z and 100k on 200z and you guys are using that sample(and my lack of success) as proof that I can't beat anything past 50z, which is totally not true.

When I got into 200z last year I had 0 pio work, didn"t use brm rules and had no system to quit playing when I was tilted (that's why I kept playing 200z so many BI after I should have already dropped and decimated my roll). Even with that I managed to breakeven, on top of that, during those times I played mostly during mornings and right after lunch and skipped friday nights too because of my routine.

Today I got pio, got a lot of hands from players I played in there and studied all of those hands. I'm way better than I used to be, so if old rapid was enough to put a fight at 200z(vs the worst pool possible, w some 500z endbosses and few fish), then I will probably be a decent winner in there. I just need a bigger roll and to play w a better mindset, gotta put more volume because I'm slacking off a lot too.

And btw, when I took my first 200z shots I had a smaller roll than I had today(and my roll is small, spent too much recently). I'm playing 50z because I'm valuing more brm because it's a more professional approach.

You realize you post hands, right? That plus your "lack of success" is enough to see that you're not the $200 world beater you think you are. Even if you know theory, you still have to put that knowledge to work at the tables. Your excuse of tilting is tilting because there are many great players who don't live up to their potential because of that very reason. The only thing that will ever show that you're a $200 world beater is to actually do it and thus far, you haven't and acting like you are when you've already tried and failed and now can't even get back up there is arrogance and ignorance personified.

Sometimes one hand is a very conclusive sample. For example, if I see a 6m reg 3b with 54o I know a lot about their strategy...is similar to the limping example if I see someone do it once I can really confidently label them a rec.

Imagine being supposedly smart enough to compete with the best players in the world while simultaneously not being smart enough to print money against fish and bad regs. It’s like struggling to drive a Ford Fiesta but claiming you’d give Lewis Hamilton a run for his money in an F1 car.

This might be the best post in this thread so far.

Regarding the second point: i think you misunderstood what i wrote - i was saying that i had nothing to say about it. I wasn't leaning one way or another.

As for the 500k sample not being conclusive, i wholeheartedly do not believe this to be a significant enough sample to draw solid conclusions. Variance can easily dictate whether you're a 1bb winner or a 10bb winner over such a sample size.

I've talked about this numerous times in my own blog but i'll say it again. There are multiple players that i know, including the likes of king10clubs (undeniably one of the biggest, if not the biggest winner at midstakes online) who have been through hundreds and hundreds of thousands of hands break even. Specifically KTclubs, he broke even for 1 million hands, and his overall wr is like 3-5bb.

I'm another example of this. I have over 4bb lifetime in all my games, and i have had several 300k hand break even stretches. I have played like 8 million hands lifetime.

Of course I'm being rather selective for arguments sake, and i haven't mentioned deterioration in play resulting in periods of your 'downswing' where you're actually playing more like a 1bb winner rather than a 5bb winner. But even with those point aside, it is still undeniable to me that 500k hands are no where near enough to give you your true winrate

wait, there are regs with a 3% 3b still?!

Don't judge me!

from all the discussion from now on i think we should say what sites we play on.

on **** sites sure its important...who the hell gets to 1knl to hsnl having a 3% 3b lol

but on stars...over 50nl this doesnt happen. at same time it makes sense how much u think u can crush stars, still yet to meet a reg with 3% 3b on there.

honestly i mostly base my opinion on the mutant HH

it's funny because he's going to say that he only posts the interesting hands and that most hands he plays are standard, but then he posts 10 monstrosities from a sample of like 500 hands played

Is such nonsense rapi to claim that you know more about Pio/GTO than 200z regs. You said you got it last year and it was released 3.5 years ago. People have a more than two year head start on you. There are people with 1-2000 hours in Pio plus way more in those games NOT TILTING and playing well+with confidence.

This.

If OP is really a crusher, someone whose true WR is 8bb++/100 and belongs higher but every 10000 hands plays ten super absurd hands that he posts here where he makes 300bb++ worth of errors...then he is a 5bb/100 winner exactly as his 450k hand nl50 graph says he is.

A lot of people in here make atrocious plays, they just don't post them. Also there are plays/spots that look way less spewy than my HH but are way more insane from a theory perspective. An example would be like 3-betting and 3-barreling AK w bad blockers on low boards SB vs BTN.

It looks better than 3-betting 45o, but when I 3-bet that hand, I'm saying that I believe villain is overfolding to 3-bets or not 4-betting enough and letting me realize more equity than I should, making it +EV. I might be wrong with my read, but my play makes sense, while blasting off with AK makes 0 sense becsuse you have SDV and will have way better hands to bluff with and a lot of people do that.

It's funny that you're saying my hh are monstrosities lol.

same thing can happen with the AKo, they 3 barrel it because they think villain is overdefending, problem with this line of thought is you can justify virtually any spew

cold4betting 86o is stupid no matter how you look at it, even against a 50% 3bet range it prob wouldn't be a thing

Attaboy Pedro show em who's boss. **** the haters

No one beating 200z is making them as regularly as you though. And when most good players do make a "bad play" they don't defend it to the death or their reasons for doing it are at least grounded in solid logic/theory.

Your bad plays are your general strategy lol.

I think that's a pretty good way to describe them honestly.

Eccentric_bg be like

also remembered of this guy. does he still play?

yes, mostly hs mtts

There are exceptions of course...I remember watching some pastorcito RIO vid where he's open limping...and I know open limping in MTTs at certain stack depths is a thing but if you went through life the last 15 years thinking anyone who limped in 6m was a huge fish you probably did not lose any EV.

500k is not enough to conclusively be sure of someones true winrate but its a good indication (the higher it is/the lower the sd, the better) of a rough range a player falls into. for a breakeven ish 50nl reg, i would start by removing these extreme exploits like 3betting j2o even if you have reasons to.

also we should use the data to draw some conclusions. if someone is break even in 500k hands are they DEFINITELY not a 5+ bb winner? no. but they are extremely unlikely to be. and a fair number of good/qualified players are routinely pointing out huge mistakes in hands in a vacuum and overall approach in the thread.

Repeating this again: a mistake is only a mistake if my opponents are playing well against them.

Couldn't play much during christmas, but got some hands for you guys

H1: good fold? both guys were marked as whales, the x/r guy was overbluffing a lot, but the other guy didn't look that spewy, with that action and on that texture do you call vs a whale?

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 117.26 BB
SB: 101.98 BB
BB: 135.8 BB
UTG: 83.06 BB
Hero (MP): 117.58 BB
CO: 101.36 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 6.5 BB, fold, UTG calls 5 BB

Flop: (22 BB, 3 players) T 2 A
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 5.22 BB, SB calls 5.22 BB, UTG raises to 17.28 BB, Hero calls 12.06 BB, SB raises to 90 BB, fold, fold

SB wins 70.14 BB

H2: I think I should have gone smaller OTR

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 350.32 BB
SB: 136.84 BB
Hero (BB): 123.16 BB
UTG: 30.6 BB
MP: 105.98 BB
CO: 91 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 8

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks

Flop: (3 BB, 3 players) 6 9 6
SB bets 1.7 BB, Hero raises to 4.82 BB, UTG calls 4.82 BB, SB calls 3.12 BB

Turn: (17.46 BB, 3 players) 7
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (17.46 BB, 3 players) T
SB checks, Hero bets 12.44 BB, UTG calls 12.44 BB, fold




H3: Special attack going thin! haha vaamoooo

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 174.58 BB
SB: 127.12 BB
BB: 126.38 BB
Hero (UTG): 102.5 BB
MP: 79.04 BB
CO: 476.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

Hero raises to 2.32 BB, MP raises to 8.46 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 102.5 BB and is all-in, MP calls 70.58 BB and is all-in

Flop: (159.58 BB, 2 players) 2 6 T

Turn: (159.58 BB, 2 players) 8

River: (159.58 BB, 2 players) 3



H4: air jordan, love these ones when they work

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 101.92 BB
SB: 185.1 BB
BB: 63.5 BB
UTG: 136.26 BB
MP: 95.06 BB
CO: 410.16 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K 7

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 2 T 2
CO checks, Hero bets 4.64 BB, CO calls 4.64 BB

Turn: (28.78 BB, 2 players) 8
CO checks, Hero bets 20.5 BB, CO calls 20.5 BB

River: (69.78 BB, 2 players) 3
CO checks, Hero bets 67.78 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 66.3 BB

H5:

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 158.1 BB
UTG: 173.92 BB
MP: 209.2 BB
CO: 107.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.32 BB, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.68 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) A 7 8
SB bets 12.02 BB, Hero calls 12.02 BB

Turn: (43.04 BB, 2 players) 4
SB bets 78.98 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 78.98 BB and is all-in




H6: using a bit of benabadbeat's special move, it's so effective lol

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
Hero (SB): 101.72 BB
BB: 356.96 BB
UTG: 101 BB
MP: 138.1 BB
CO: 79.86 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 T

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 5 4 7
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (6 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 3.76 BB, BB calls 3.76 BB

River: (13.52 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 1 BB, BB calls 1 BB




H7: vs 2% 3-bet nit, on that texture I think I'm just toasted and he snap pot in there, I think he always has me beat

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 164.04 BB
SB: 96.26 BB
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 111.56 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 2.32 BB, MP raises to 8.46 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 22 BB, MP calls 13.54 BB

Flop: (45.5 BB, 2 players) T Q 7
Hero checks, MP bets 43 BB, fold

MP wins 43.22 BB

Was listening to Olivier Busquets podcast, and he was asked a question about something he changed his mind about. And his response was that he changed his mind about the power of persuasion.

That he used to think that if you present a logical argument that was backed up with facts, that people would be forced to agree. Now he thinks otherwise as people emotions get in the way and create cognitive biases that aid there stubbornness.

This seems to ring true with you Rapi, plenty of people provide logical arguments, with evidence and logic but you refuse to listen. Not only do you refuse to listen, you refuse to take everyone's advice into consideration because you ego gets in the way.

You always have an excuse or reason for why you do something. Maybe if you take out your ego, you might progress faster, if you are even progressing at all

People have been telling him this for at least a year that I know and probably a lot longer. He needs professional help.

Hi Rapidesh, Ive been a lurker on this PGC for a while now but first post. Here's my 2c about all these insane exploit plays.

I get that you perceive your opponent to be super unbalanced in each specific instance you face aggression when holding your top set or whatever, and its your opinion that a fold might win like 3-4bb/100 over the long term, even though its a snapcall in a vacuum and you'll recuperate the eV elsewhere. But heres the thing, if you keep folding your strongest hands, at what point will you have the opportunity to gain this eV back? When you have total garb? The spots you fold often ARE the opportunities to gain a substantial amount of your winrate.

Overbluffing can never make as much as having value in the same spot in terms of eV, so I don't understand how you ever believe you can fold these hands and still be profitable, standard card distribution won't allow it, you're only going to get dealt top of your range so often. Id actually love to see some stats for your barrel lines because you seem to blast off at a fair rate, but also fold all value in the same lines so it must be just 0% calls vs aggression whilst you're pumping money in.

That being said, I still really enjoy the HH's and the eternal struggle, you're right that most people don't post their controversial hands or losing hands/spew by themselves. So from an entertainment perspective, big fan!