From now on every midstakes reg who makes a completely bullshit comment like this must play at least a 250k hand challenge proving these insane winrates are actually possible for them or stfu. Hint: they are not, and they are not any better in reality then 90% of players actually playing those stakes that use solvers and whatnot, but just ran extremely well to allow them to shoot up the stakes. Or they just skipped the micro's because they were already wealthy.

I'm willing to bet against (small 4figures amount), that a highstakes player doesn't have a 10evbb winrate at zNL50 on pokerstars in a significant sample, if the results can be audited. Maybe if more people join someone takes this bet.

edited to clarify: 10evbb right now, not in the past.

Do i smell a prop bet????

Subbed

l would book small amount ($500ish) on a guy not making 10evbb/100 at 50z with reasonable terms on time frame.

Rake is 9bb or something so I think the maximum attainable w/rs at zoom don't change too much 50nl-500nl.

EDIT: but yes obviously hsnl regs win more, i kinda agree that mass data cheating probably beats smart guy adapting to the population here though

you're posting nl10 hands for 9 years and question midstakes players' winrates? you cannot really judge what's possible and what's not in a game you suck at.

esp the bolded part is a typical loser's rant, you couldn't even build a solid bankroll in a decade. just because rake is high it doesn't mean you have to stuck there forever if you're a good player.

i mean 10bb and 6 is a pretty big difference, and we were talking about the top nl players doing so. you're not gonna find anyone good enough to make 10bb bets worth their time (i.e. if you xbook, and their true winrate is 11bb, they > 10bb but still not worth playing for that 1bb even if its 10x stakes), unless you bet massive. like no one who can beat it for 10bb is gonna bother playing hundreds of thousands of hands for 1k bet etc.
its pretty funny there are ppl actually arguing that there isnt much skill difference between 50nl and 500 or even 5k regs tho, keep thinking that

there is a non-0 amount of factor that e.g. an "expert" at crushing weak pools will have some advantage but virtually every, if not every hs crusher would destroy 25, 50, 100nl etc

And what was this change?

Id dabble in some action in favour of a ms crusher winning 9-10bb+. Now we just need a participant willing to go through the pain of playing a meaningful sample at 4x+ lower stakes

Maybe you should become a magic the gathering pro.

I want some action on a 50nl player not beating a stake one or two higher than the one they play for any decent sample....

I would def bet 4 figures that a good HS reg could beat 50nl for 10bb/100. Let’s get this going.

I do think their winrate is higher, but it will be 3-5bb higher than a good reg at nl50z. Considering that if a good reg has a 12-14bb wr (before rake), they will have to get close to 18bb+ wr in 6max zoom. It's certainly possible but I'll take the under.

Yes it will be difficult to get a top player like Otb etc, but a good winner at NL500-nl1k maybe we could get a good enough amount. I'll bet ~2500. We already got potential 3k against, maybe more people want to join?

I'd bet 2k against.
(300k sample, 700+hands/hr)

We actually have a bit of juice here, happy to escrow.

No way 300k hands though, happy for it to be about 50k as long as played in a short period. +EV is +EV, obviously high variance in that time frame but noone is playing more.

I'll bet $300 for the reg to be able to do it if someone steps up, but if I don't rate the reg in question I can back out.

hmm i'd have to think about this a bit more to be sure but i think if you are betting "will the player be over xBB/100 over Y sample", the chance/ev of the bet will change depending on the sample.
if you xbook (i.e. say the player plays nl50, you effectively let him buy himself x 10 = he plays nl 500, if he wins 500$ u pay him 5k, if he loses 500$ he pays u 5k) and charge a mu on that, its very clear - if the mu is under his "true" bb/100 its +ev for him, and vice-versa.

the problem with huge samples is that the guys who could get a massive winrate for the most part wont be 50nl regs, say they play 200-500 and their hourly is anywhere from 60-175 (just random example range), to make this better:
say they win 8bb getting 750 hands? thats $30~, then the bet would have to be pretty big and its also way higher variance depending what kind of bet it is. say they bet 30k (doubt this happens) vs. 30k, well their ev isnt gonna be anywhere close to 30k even if their true winrate is say 10bb. the higher the sample the higher the chance they win/the closer to 30k itll be, but then its also more hours.
and its a chance to lose 30k at once etcetc

then the problem will small samples is that it proves close to nothing

id consider doing this as a team with a few others for fun or a charity drive for christmas or something, id use no hud. prob wouldnt wanna stream tbh for info reasons, but id be happy to do it such that its not for the ev and all of my ev (bet or no bet) goes to charity or w/e. like 5 ppl doing 35k hands each or something like that

if this bet actually happens I will eat a pile of my dogs **** on web cam live


must be 250k hands

also this is specifically zoom i'm talking, reg tables whole new proposition and you could be like 20bb if you want at 50nl i believe.

Doubtful this happens but fun chat anyway, also obviously higher stakes are not easier, basic economics dictates otherwise.

Doesn't work for me that way, there should be pressure for the player doing it (losing the money) and losing the time if he doesn't get it. If it's a team of players it would be a bit muted.

What's the EV of someone that plays zNL500, it's something like 15-20k usd per month?

So the bet should have to be at a minimum more than 60k against/for if it was around 3 months to complete, probably there won't be any single taker for less I'm guessing and it's not worth their time/risk even then from what people are saying.

I'm interested to see it either way, but I won't put my money on it if there isn't any considerable effort to do it. For me it doesn't need to be streamed, if the results can be audited/downloaded from ps by independent party.

Yeah, if that happens, it will happen if the guy wants to play 50k hands, in that case he can give up if he starts w a downswing, it's easier to find someone to do it.

Define big enough....It can't be that big since u are on the verge of going busto based on your recent thread updates....you going to escrow your entire roll?

I'll do it if I can get good enough side action/odds. Prob would need to be something like 10:1 though Since 250k hands would take me 400 hours on Stars.

you're probably better off lowering the number of hands and also the odds, much more likely to get interest in any prop bet.

Zoom vs non zoom is pretty big.

Yea I would be interested in doing some kind of charity thing for Christmas (not on Xmas day though).