Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGoliath
don't you think we have enough sd value to just check behind aq
Yeah, AQ will win the pot sometimes if we check back, but I think the EV of jamming is higher. In that spot if I don't turn AQ into a bluff I will be underbluffing like crazy. Just think about which hands call flop and call turn that are std bluffs otr. Imo it's only AsJx, maybe AxJs, but not sure if that hand is good enough to call the flop.
So we will have only 6 std bluffs max in that spot, for value we probably have at least 10 combos of flushes, 9 combos of KQ and 6-9 combos of sets. In the worst case scenario I will have 25 value hands otr, villain needs to be right around 33% of the time. If I bluff all AsJx/AxJs I will bluff only 19%.
Now I will have more 5 combos of AsQx and AxQs, if I bluff all of those too I will give villain almost a breakeven call (if I have AxJs in my range, which I think I won't, also while underestimating my value combos which could easily be 35 and not 25).
I think even with that play I will still be underbluffing the river, but by making that play at least my range will make more EV if villain is overfolding in that spot(which he should).
The only type of player I won't bluff in there will be vs massive brainless station regs or whales.
Last edited by Rapidesh123; 01-30-2019 at 10:48 AM.