Then maybe you misunderstood. If a person is a winning player their momentum will be profitable. If a winning player has a downswing sure theres no telling when that downswing will stop but because that person is a winning player, an upswing is bound to happen to continue on that same profitable momentum and creating higher summits on the graph. For a better example, if you were to flip a coin thousands of times wherever a swing occurs over the course of time (those flips) the further it deviates from its true value (0) the same deviation of the opposite would be. For example, if you flip heads 10 times in a row, over the course of time eventually you'll flip tails ten times in a row to bring it back to the standard value (0) where 0 = the 50/50 as both sides of the coin have even chances of being flipped. And over the course of time there will be more heads than tails, and vice versa as if creating a wave-like pattern on a graph as it deviates from 0 (up if heads, and down if tails). A winning player can not make profits being 50/50 so if we presume he's a winning player (60/40) then if he loses 8 times in a row, he would eventually win 12 times in a row. That is the true standard. So the fact is if he has a downswing he will have a greater upswing so moving to a lower stake instead of continuing at the same stake is a losing play because if his upswing were to happen there then his profits would not make up for his losses. Its like saying if you play roulette, no system you can do will make you a winning player. If you were to double your bet after each loss it doesnt matter. If you were to decrease your bets, it doesnt matter. All are losing plays. Moving to a lower stake after a series of losses in poker is similar to this ... a losing strategy. Either you'll lose time, or money. What does matter for a poker player is to continue playing that same stake because if he truly is a profitable player then he's going to make up for his losses eventually. His future upswing will be larger than his current downswing. So as you said theres no way of knowing when that upswing occurs, theres no reason to move to a lower stake believing that your downswing will continue. You can criticize if you want but I know what Im talking about and you may not understand the math involved. What you said is very insulting and because of your comments you're the fool if you dont agree.

I know you're pressing your point across but there were a couple negative comments you could have left out. If you want to be open to knowledge then dont criticize cause I may be right, and you may be wrong and you can learn something from this. I know I am right Im trying to explain it the best I can to a poker player who may not understand technical analysis or math. But because you insulted me I'll criticize and argue you back ...

"A downswing doesnt turn into an upswing" ... yes it does. Being a technical analyzer for many years I know how trends work. If he is to be a winning player an upswing MUST happen. Upswings (and Ranges) ALWAYS follow a downswing because if they didnt then it would always be a downswing. Savvy?

"A downswing could keep going until the player is broke" ... yes thats correct. Thats why you use Bankroll Management to absorb these large downswings thus not needing to move to a lower stake. And if he is unfortunate enough to have a 30 buy-in downswing, if he is a winning player his upswing in the future will be the same or more than 30 buy-ins.

Everything else in the paragraph ... that has nothing to do with what im talking about.

"If youre playing well and have the BR, move up" ... WRONG. If you are a 3ptbb/100 winner if you were to move up to the next higher stake having a 10ptbb/100 performance at the level you were playing you're going to face more losses at that higher level because your win rate of 10ptbb/100 is not your true win rate and must come down to 3ptbb/100.

"If you're losing and cant withstand the downswing, move down" ... you're choking on your own words here. In the previous paragraph you practically said theres no way of knowing when a downswing will stop because every hand is independant blah blah. So why would you move down to a lower stake? Because you think the downswing is going to continue?? An 8 buy-in downswing at 50NL = -$400. A 12 buy-in upswing at 25NL = +$300. A net loss of $100 while performing at your true win rate = a losing play.

If you dont understand what Im talking about I dont have the time to teach you or to explain a little more clearer but you can pick up a math book or learn technical analysis. Trust me I know what you're trying to say. The point Im trying to get across is 1) dont drop lower in stakes if having a downswing, and 2) dont move higher in stakes if having an upswing. Believe me or not I know you dont know my background in math or poker, etc but if you argue with me again I'll bring out the math book and make a fool of you for criticizing me because I know Im right. But Im telling you now if you dont agree with 1) and 2) the answer is you'll lose time) or money).

So you should never move up in limits?

Do it after putting in a certain amount of hands, not a certain amount of money made which is a mistake I find from a lot of players. I warn them, whether they listen to me or not is up to them. Usually they dont tbh but arcticbeatles thread ($30 into $40k) that was a popular one I warned him about this he was doing very good at these levels and only put in a small amount of hands at 10NL. He moved up to 25NL and got hit hard. I told him to put in at least 50k hands at 10NL cause his heater / upswing / streak whatever you want to call it at 10NL bit the dust when his downswing happened at 25NL. Ended up costing him the $15k bet he had with his friend. Another one of these challenge threads I warned the OP what was going to happen after a short sample of games he played a few hours later he posts a doomsday switch. Stay at the stakes you play and put in xx,xxx amount of hands before you move up. This will even out any streaks you have and will give you more insight as far as your playing ability. If you perform 2ptbb/100 while others are putting up 4ptbb/100 theres an area of your game you can work on. If you put in 5k hands and win at 10ptbb/100 and have enough funds to move to the next level, you cant rightfully say you're a 10ptbb/100 winner at that level after a small sampling of hands. And it will be a recipe for disaster when you move up to the next level because you cant consistently perform 10ptbb/100 long-term. Understand?

You should move up as soon as you have the money imo, moving up keeps you interested in the game and if you're on an upswing who is to say that it won't continue? Also, when on an upswing you feel good about your play so you move up with more confidence. Don't be a nit, move up when you have the moneyz. (Just be able to move down when you don't have the moneyz anymore..)

(sigh) I just cant get through to these people can I. I guess we'll just call this risk aversion. You can move up stakes when you have the bankroll to do so sure just like you can play a stake not having proper bankroll management. Whats the risk you want to take? Im done ===

Ertai, the one connection you acknowledge but dismiss in your posts is that an extended downswing drops your level of play. While in the long run you will run at expectation, a downswing leading to tilt/playing B or C game instead of A game can change your expected winrate against constant competition. It's often good to drop down to play against weaker competition so you can get a few winning sessions under your belt and get back to playing your A game. Many players move down too early, but 10-20 BI downswings happen and I don't want to be playing a limit I have 5-10 BI for even if my expectation is positive because my ROR is quite high even if I've been having a long downswing and "am due".

As for moving up, if you can play 5-10k hands at 10ptbb/100 then you can beat a given limit. While this is obviously no indication of your true winrate and you should probably play more hands than that (at least 25k hands if not more) per limit, after about that many hands you know you're a winner. This means it's alright to move up as you know you're beating your current limit (although you don't know how much).