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Old 04-26-2016, 07:59 PM   #2601
TheDefiniteArticle
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Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bagpuss View Post
pads play is a helluva lot better than yours lol
TT seems clearly fine assuming no ICM tbh
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Old 04-26-2016, 08:24 PM   #2602
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Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

Who cares about the strat aspect. The chat screenshot is epic 😂
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Old 04-26-2016, 09:25 PM   #2603
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Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

What do you think Patrick , do you think the new schedule will drop the regs ROIs a little ? ( the structures seem more turboish) mostly for below 20$ but at first glance midstakes and hs too have faster structures + the fact that there are antes from the beginning in every mtt now

really curios what u think :P
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Old 04-26-2016, 09:34 PM   #2604
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Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

Decided to play a session for the first time in ages not on a Sunday. Came 4th in weigh in was 1/7, 5th hot 162, was 1/7 and 5th 55r, was 1/7... Was top 5 Super Tuesday but made I guess a questionable bluff on pure bubble and scraped into money and bubble party highroller making a somewhat questionable river call with a3cc on aq872ddhh pretty good bluff catcher but could have folded and made the money.

Made decent money, played A game for around 95% of session and c- game for 5% of session that was perhaps the difference between a decent day and an amazing day. Very happy in general though.

Have some problems with my bar at the moment, will go into them sometime soon. Pretty interesting spot.

Have to skip Monaco now as have to dog sit this weekend! Will be studying very hard and working hard on my game as SCOOP is just around the corner.
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Old 04-26-2016, 09:40 PM   #2605
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Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

Quote:
Originally Posted by dipandglide View Post
What are your thoughts at first glance?

Grats on the Party deal btw! I love what the site has been doing. Keep up the good work!
Thanks!! I played the schedule today, I have a lot of feelings about it but not sure what's professional for me to say because of my relationship with their main () competitor. My opinions are not positive though. At all!

Quote:
Originally Posted by zintaka View Post


    Poker Stars, $1,000 Buy-in (2,500/5,000 blinds, 750 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    pads1161 (BB): 207,700 (41.5 bb)
    eisenhower1 (UTG+1): 63,654 (12.7 bb)
    MonsieurRask (UTG+2): 142,230 (28.4 bb)
    giank-ev (MP1): 83,480 (16.7 bb)
    AATheLeach (MP2): 118,436 (23.7 bb)
    torino2000 (MP3): 165,382 (33.1 bb)
    BanicIvan (CO): 267,314 (53.5 bb)
    GepettoAce (BTN): 226,135 (45.2 bb)
    xxjondxx (SB): 109,063 (21.8 bb)

    Preflop:
    4 folds, torino2000 raises to 11,250, 3 folds, pads1161 calls 6,250

    Flop: (31,750) 8 J J (2 players)
    pads1161 checks, torino2000 checks

    Turn: (31,750) 7 (2 players)
    pads1161 bets 27,777, torino2000 calls 27,777

    River: (87,304) 4 (2 players)
    pads1161 bets 125,604, torino2000 calls 125,604

    Results: 338,512 pot
    Final Board: 8 J J 7 4
    pads1161 showed 6 T and lost (-165,381 net)
    torino2000 showed T T and won 338,512 (173,131 net)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheDefiniteArticle View Post
    TT seems clearly fine assuming no ICM tbh
    Whist TT blocks a part of my value range, it also blocks a bunch of my bluffs, qt, t5, t6 maybe kt and also even blocks some flush draws. I don't think TT is especially a great bluff catcher especially as it was less than 10 people from the money, I think checking back over pairs or jx some % of the time would be good. However if he's reexploiting and calling a hand such as tens with a spade it makes my bluff very bad.

    I think villain is very good and a very nice guy, no hate from my side at all, would happily back him in this tournament at good high mark ups, he's crushing the field imo just think this TT is a fold.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by skillz_2106 View Post
    Who cares about the strat aspect. The chat screenshot is epic 😂


    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rsiatat View Post
    What do you think Patrick , do you think the new schedule will drop the regs ROIs a little ? ( the structures seem more turboish) mostly for below 20$ but at first glance midstakes and hs too have faster structures + the fact that there are antes from the beginning in every mtt now

    really curios what u think :P
    Every reg and stable will lose a lot of money from the changes. If you search for turbos in the client the bigs come up, I think that says a lot
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    Old 04-28-2016, 02:33 AM   #2606
    Re8uZ
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    I need to say that this T6o hand looks to me very ambitious very spewy(bad).This is very interesting spot and imo, corect me if I' am way off, think that your play/line is not good from this reasons:
    - I think way beter choise of bluffing hand in this spot is 98/97/9T/7T or even KT/AT/QT (if all this hands are in your flating range to start with) first group because you are bloking str8/boats/Jx combos second group that you are bloking str8/Jx/ overpairs
    - Your betsizing: i think your bet line is very bad to balance vs villain's caped range monsters/ showdown hands (here comes hand selection in play T6 doesnt bloks that much monsters imo) and i think you will get as much fold eq or maube even more and your range wont look caped too imo if you bet smth like 22-25k turn and 62-67k river
    Also i think ch flop, ch/ turn, jam river is beter line that line you played or overbeting turn to like 48k jaming river or ch flop ch turn ch jam river and this lines imo are way more easier to balans give you more risk reword ratio and keeps you range more open then the line you choose

    What was that thing for poker> you need to figure out what villain want you to and then do the opposite,
    i think in this spot buble etc your line look like you are trying to make/want him to fold showdown value and not that you are going for max value

    So if i dont have some specific history between you this are my thoughts about your line, again maybe i have wrong reasoning

    Is true that TT is kinda bad for calling off cos is blocking a lot of your blufing combos but also it bloks a lot of your str8/jt combos too
    If my reasoning is ok i think smth like K8 has same or better value to call of then TT in this spot

    Last edited by Re8uZ; 04-28-2016 at 03:01 AM.
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    Old 04-28-2016, 05:05 AM   #2607
    OurSurveySays
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Hey, I wouldn't choose to bluff with any pairs (98/97/8/t7)

    Yeah I'd flat kt/at/qt pre

    I also think k8 is better bluffcatcher than TT

    Like I said the hand is likely too ambitious although the line would havbeworked against me and probably most regs he made a good call this time.
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    Old 04-28-2016, 01:04 PM   #2608
    Mintewek
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Do u mind sharing a mid-high schedule? Via PM/Skype fine as well if u don't want it public.
    Not sure about the way to go with this new schedule. (ABI $60ish)
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    Old 04-28-2016, 01:22 PM   #2609
    Don Melchor
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    also a few nude pics of your gf
    Spoiler:
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    Old 04-28-2016, 02:39 PM   #2610
    Marecki
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    If his range seems capped, why would you want to bet so much with monsters?
    Wouldn't it be more profitable to use smaller sizings with nuts?
    What should villain think you want him to call with when you bet so much?
    Or what would you want him to call with if you had a value hand? Plus it's bubble so you probably are more likely to bluff.

    I'm just a weak micro reg so probably there are many things I'm not aware of to consider so ofc I don't give my opinions. I'm just curious and it would be nice to get some explanation.
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    Old 04-28-2016, 03:30 PM   #2611
    ibavly
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Marecki View Post
    If his range seems capped, why would you want to bet so much with monsters?
    Wouldn't it be more profitable to use smaller sizings with nuts?
    What should villain think you want him to call with when you bet so much?
    Or what would you want him to call with if you had a value hand? Plus it's bubble so you probably are more likely to bluff.

    I'm just a weak micro reg so probably there are many things I'm not aware of to consider so ofc I don't give my opinions. I'm just curious and it would be nice to get some explanation.
    1. Bet small with the nuts since he won't call a big bet often
    2. This is a spot where you're likely to bluff a lot, so you can't bluff big here since he'll call you off a lot

    Do you see the flaw in your logic?
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    Old 04-28-2016, 07:32 PM   #2612
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Marecki View Post
    If his range seems capped, why would you want to bet so much with monsters?
    Wouldn't it be more profitable to use smaller sizings with nuts?
    What should villain think you want him to call with when you bet so much?
    Or what would you want him to call with if you had a value hand? Plus it's bubble so you probably are more likely to bluff.

    I'm just a weak micro reg so probably there are many things I'm not aware of to consider so ofc I don't give my opinions. I'm just curious and it would be nice to get some explanation.
    bc we have a gazillion possible blufs
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    Old 04-28-2016, 08:09 PM   #2613
    OurSurveySays
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    I actually think the hand is fine on reflection after I went through some stuff today. On somewhat similar topic... WCG Rider...

    "GTO Solvers are total garbage. It actaully upsets me a little bit how much of a scam they are.
    1) Poker isnt zero sum (there is rake) 2) You have to input preflop ranges (which will always be imperfect)
    I also feel that the strategies that they come up with for postflop are just bad. I have seen a bunch of conclusions they have drawn that I would go so far as to say are terrible. At some point down the road I will write a longer article on my thoughts here but if you want to do yourself any kind of favor avoid using these scammy softwares."

    Interesting now to see how everybody reacts, I have taken great intrigue in piosolver and analysed and looked over interesting things that my
    Friends discovered there but generally I think most of it becomes just logical ways of thinking. To really run the sims with exact frequencies and ranges is tough to do, I think attempting to play exploitatively is still the best approach but Pio can definitely help in some of those areas, but I'm glad Doug cemented what I thought previously that those who analyse everything through Pio could be doing so at their own disadvantage.

    On another similar topic.. Had some guy I don't really know accusing me of some serious **** today on skype about how Fedor ghosts me and that's why I'm going to grind SCOOP next to him 😂😂😂😂 pretty hilarious that Fedor is just waiting around getting ready to take over for me in he hot 162, whatever I'll take it as a compliment I guess!

    "u see me as a threat to your "enterprise"

    "so u won't explain why your going to fedors to grind scoop...but ppl like you and others are is whats killing poker"

    "so keep posting your punts, and your occasional wins when u get a good reg to ghost u at a ft"

    "u might be able to convince fedor to lend you100k to start a business. but at the end of the day ppl will see through your facadd"

    "im sure u will have a good scoop staying with fedor and his crew tho, disgust me but whatever, Party Poker ambassador my arse"

    And around another 40 unanswered messages, so weird people hate for no reason but his logic is just so flawed it's ridiculous but whatever haha

    Dog sitting for the next 2 days so studying around 5-6 hours each day. Poker on stars now is a pre flop game, no real reason for studying much post flop there just run lots and lots of hrcs for the next week to make sure game is as
    Solid as possible. I think I've been rejamming little bit too wider recently than optimal. It's extremely important now to make as many notes as possible for pre flop spots as little things such as r:c Jj off 13bb from hijac or Aa from
    Cut off off 10 will make a huge difference in decision making, it's so easy to just assume you walked into an unfortunate part of somebodies range but in reality there's a lot more you can do to combat that and make hero folds pre flop.

    Here is interesting one

    5 handed UtG jams 12bb, there's one 9bb stack, I have 8 in the bb and two others have 16bb stacks. What do you call? 12.5% ante.

    Went to cinema tonight after studying. Went to watch 10 Cloverfield Lane. Won't give much away but it had an ending I really wouldn't have imagined. I've always been fascinated about hostage and capture crime history so I probably enjoy the film slightly more than the average person but despite that would give it 5/10.

    Watched American history X for the first time in a while, definitely really good movie and again race gangs is something I've always been intrigued about or read about a lot so perhaps I like it more than most. Kind of wished they went a different route at the end, but I guess it's a realistic route unfortunately. 8/10

    Last night watched Flight. Again I'm intrigued by lots of the movie so potentially a little bit biased but I like it. 7/10.
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    Old 04-28-2016, 08:20 PM   #2614
    OurSurveySays
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Really am letting myself in here for a slaughtering so be easy with me, but here's the first draft of my business plan for bitB Properties, a letting company targeted at mainly expats in Budapest. I wrote this after 3 hours sleep on a 2 hour flight using my phone so expect the odd spelling mistake!


    Business Plan for bitB Properties, market leader property expert company based in Budapest and beyond.

    "Our aim is to be the definitive choice in Budapest for property rentals and exciting construction & property development in and around the city."

    Index

    1- Front Page
    2- Business Plan, notes & assumptions
    3- Index
    4- Executive Summary
    5- Funding and capitalization plan
    6- Proposed site and the concept
    7- Management overview
    8- Initial Staffing
    9- Operations
    10- Premises and equipment
    12- Competition analysis (a) - Rentals
    13- Competition analysis (b) - Construction
    14- Competition analysis (c) - Purchasing
    15- Costing and pricing
    16- A look at potential projections
    17- Marketing strategy (a) Networking: Wooze and Smooze
    18- Marketing strategy (b) Focused FB ad space: get in their faces
    19- Marketing strategy (c) Word of Mouth
    20- Swot Analysis & Risk Analysis with explanations & solutions
    21- Summary and thoughts



    4- Executive Summary
    Introducing bitB Properties to Budapest

    bitB Properties was born from a personal and community frustration towards the property management companies based in one of the most rapidly expanding cities in the world. With the lack of professionalism, and heavy cannibalization and monopolization from "airBNB" most rental companies, especially those facing English speaking tenants seem to have simply give up trying to offer a premium service.

    bitB Properties business and growth into areas such as construction, development and commercial expansion will depend solely on its reputation throughout the city. bitB Properties will be initially focused on giving the best customer experience for both the tenant and the landlord.

    The user experience for the tenant will start on a state of the art interactive website, progress through exemplary face to face customer service and continue through regular face to face and virtual communication.

    The user experience for the landlord will start at functions, dinners and public meetings, progress through a follow up meeting and develop and flourish over hopefully many separate rentals of their properties.

    There are numerous potential spin offs that can be built into bitB Properties at a later date that will allow the company to grow to the next level as further increase turnover.


    5- Funding requirement & capitalization plan

    The business will not require a large amount of initial capital to fund the launch of the business. €10,000 will be injected initially for a small central office space to allow interaction with new and current clientele.

    €3000 will be injected initially for interior design including but not limited to computers and office equipment.

    €7500 will be injected initially for website expansion.

    Up to €1,000,000+ will be injected long term on purchasing properties.

    The company will consult with local experts and authorities about potential start up company grants that they will be entitled to.



    6- Proposed site and the concept

    Working alongside Laszlo Nagy, management will consult, see, find and purchase an office space somewhere in either the 5th, 6th or 7th district that allows staff to work efficiently and optimally, maximizing the amount of potential viewings in each day.

    bitB Properties has been found and created because property companies are shying away from the prospect of battling against AirBNB for market space. Reasons why companies are currently failing is 1) Incompetency, 2) Inferior Websites to leading external competitors such as AirBNB and 3) Innovative mindsets. bitB (best in the business) prides itself on competency, punctuality, hard work and innovation. There is currently thousands and thousands (find exact number at later date) of English only speaking people living in Budapest and renting apartments off rental agencies.

    The goal for bitB is to simply capture 100% of the market share of English speaking tenants and acquiring them through word of mouth marketing that will in turn make the rival agencies die a slow death as their customers decide to come to us for their next long term rental contract.

    Whilst the reputation and focus of the company will be built from doing as many successful rental contracts as possible, it's aim will be on bigger and better things, maximizing revenues by securing construction deals on all levels and minimizing costs with efficient and affordable outgoings.

    The company will hopefully be the rental company that all landlords want to use. bitB will use this to its advantage and find, negotiate, renovate and rent properties that they can assess are of high value compared to others on the market at a higher price. The portfolio of bitB properties should be forever growing and leading to a huge revenue driver.

    The goals of the company will be to grow in 2 years to the extent that

    1) It isn't a question in people's minds where to go to when wanting to rent an apartment in Budapest.

    2) Exciting construction contracts are regularly being offered to us and we expand to hiring multiple project mangers reporting back to management regarding progress

    3) The company looks to move internationally and secure contracts to push revenues to a different standard all together.

    4) The company owns a large portfolio of properties that they are able to either sell at a later date or continue renting out for regular income.

    7) Management overview

    Management:

    Patrick Leonard, owner & CSO (Chief Strategy Officer)

    Leonard will initially be the sole investor in the company, providing the entire cash flow and thus being the majority equity holder. Working on the business development and strategy of the company, Leonard will be focused on the initial growth and expansion of the company, including the initial set up, projections and elimination potential problems whilst thinking innovatively to ensure the company is the best property company in the city.

    xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx, CCO (Chief Construction officer)

    A young yet relatively experienced member of the construction industry, xxxxxxxx will be pivotal to the short and long term success of the company as she will be trusted with the responsibility of sourcing and securing jobs and projects that will allow the company to work with very high revenues and eventually grow internationally. xxxxxxxxx will also work alongside Leonard with the strategic side of the company and offer assistance and consultation to paid staff members. xxxxxxxxxx bilingual ability & her overall competency and charm are exactly the level of standard that the company will demand from its future employees. xxxxxxxxxxxx will receive both an initial basic salary & equity in the company, both to be decided at a later date.

    8) Additional/Initial Staffing

    bitB will employ

    - 2 full time salesman/woman who will work on helping persuade potential tenants to sign contracts whilst assisting in the management of the properties in certain cases.

    - An initial web developer to create the base website



    9) Operations


    bitB will look to launch in August 2016, ensuring set up is ready and prepared for the huge influx of international students coming to the city in September.

    Office space will be acquired at the end of June and all strategic business decisions and set up will be done between now to August to ensure the final product is that of an exemplary standard.

    Recruitment will be done between July 20 - August 20 and full staff training will be done between August 20 - September 1st allowing for no excuses of incompetancy.

    xxxxxxxx and Leonard will look to do intensive market research between April - June and between April and September (and beyond) both will look to network as much as possible including functions, dinners and other opportunities to speak with prominent business and property owners.


    10) Premises & Equipment

    As previously stated, bitB will source and purchase an office space in either district 5, 6 or 7 that allows staff to work efficiently and productively whilst "putting our face in the windows of all our potential customers"

    New computers, chairs, tables and simple decor will be purchased to continue the feel of a company of the highest quality rather than some rogue traders or "another rental company".


    10-12 Competition Analysis (Rentals)

    There are currently X amount of rental companies working in Budapest

    There are currently Y amount of properties listed on Albertlet

    There are currently Z amount of properties listed on airbnb

    There are currently A amount of properties listed on Albertlet under 300€ a month
    There are currently B amount of properties listed on Albertlet between 300€ - 500€ a month
    There are currently C amount of properties listed on Albertlet between 500€ - 750€ a month
    Currently there are
    There are currently D amount of properties listed on Albertlet between 750€ - 1200€ a month
    There are currently E amount of properties listed on Albertlet between 1200€ - 1600€ a month
    There are currently F amount of properties listed on Albertlet between 1600€ - 2000€ a month
    There are currently G amount of properties listed on Albertlet between 2000€+


    There are currently A amount of properties listed on Airbnb under 300€ a month
    There are currently B amount of properties listed on Airbnb between 300€ - 500€ a month
    There are currently C amount of properties listed on Airbnb between 500€ - 750€ a month
    Currently there are
    There are currently D amount of properties listed on Airbnb between 750€ - 1200€ a month
    There are currently E amount of properties listed on Airbnb between 1200€ - 1600€ a month
    There are currently F amount of properties listed on Airbnb between 1600€ - 2000€ a month
    There are currently G amount of properties listed on Airbnb between 2000€+

    Based on this analysis we can make an accurate assumption that X, y, z

    Because of these assumptions the companies focus regarding rentals should be a, b, c because e, f, g

    13) Competition Analysis (construction)

    (Unsure exactly what to do here, xxxxxxxx to brainstorm and complete)


    Based on this analysis we can make an accurate assumption that X, y, z

    Because of these assumptions the companies focus regarding construction should be a, b, c because e, f, g


    14) Competition Analysis (purchasing)

    (Patrick to ask Lazslo to create a full written overview of the property purchasing market over the last 5 years focusing on prices, politics and the current state and concluding the report with suggestions, ideas and potential roadblocks.

    15-16 Costing & Pricing + A look at potential Projections.

    A) Rentals costing & pricing + potential projections

    In our market research we will understand better exactly how much rental companies and AirBNB are charging to landlords for their services to give us a clearer indications of margins.

    Management will be focused on the long term development side of the company and looking for overall growth rather than their initial salary.

    Initial costing for setting up an office and fully functional and modern website were €21000 (€10,000 rent, €3500 interior design, €7500 website)

    Marketing (see 17-19) will be given an aggressive €2000/month cap

    Salesmen/women for thewill be given an attractive 25% royalty fee for each rental.

    Working on 2 different projections (pessimistic) (optimistic) we are left with these (largely estimated numbers


    Important: All fixed costs are put into rental side of the company thus putting negative stance on initial figures, especially for year 1.

    1- Pessimistic

    Year 1

    Costs €45,000 (office + interior design + website + marketing)
    Rentals = 52 apartments at €400/apartment = €20800
    Salesteam bonus = €5200

    Year 1 = - €29400

    Year 2

    Cost €20,000 (office €10,000 + marketing €10,000)
    Rentals = 150 apartments at €400/apartment = €60000
    Sales team bonus = €15,000

    Year 2 = +€35000

    Year 3
    Cost €15,000 (office €10,000 + marketing €5000
    Rentals = 200 apartments at €400/apartment = €80,000
    Sales team bonus = €20,000

    Year 3 = +€45000


    Optimistic

    Year 1
    Cost €45,000 (office+ interior design + website + marketing)
    Rentals = 150 apartments at €400/apartment = €60,000
    Sales team bonus = €15,000

    Year 1 = Breakeven

    Year 2
    Cost €20,000 (office + marketing)
    Rentals = 350 apartments at €400/apartment = €140,000
    Sales team bonus = €25,000

    Year 2 = +£95,000

    Year 3
    Cost €20,000 (big office)
    Rentals = 700 (15/week isn't too unreasonable) = €280,000
    Sales team bonus €50,000

    Year 3 = + €210,000

    Year 4 =
    Cost €20,000 (office)
    Rentals = 1500 (30/week) = €600,000
    Sales team bonus = €120,000

    Year 4 = + €460,000


    B) Construction costing & pricing + potential projections

    xxxxxxx to complete potential projections based on accurate information for both pessimistic and optimistic outcomes.

    Important: All fixed costs have been put into the rentals side of the company, the construction side of the company instantly works at a profit.


    C) Property purchasing, costing & pricing + potential projections

    Leonard to complete potential projections based on accurate information for both pessimistic and optimistic outcomes.

    Important: All fixed costs have been put into the rentals side of the company, the property purchasing side of the company instantly works at a profit.

    Overview of projections, costing and pricing

    The long term potential of the company is outstandingly huge. Building a reputation on competency whilst turning over modest amounts to allow the growth of the company through acquisitions of construction and property purchasing will allow the company to grow on a year to year basis. All numbers are subject to change after the rental report and feedback from Lazslo and other local experts.

    17) Marketing Strategy (a) - Wooze and Smooze

    Between April - September, Xxxxxxxx and Leonard will try and befriend as many property & construction investors, tycoons and enthusiasts in Budapest. The system will be relatively clear:

    1- Meet potential client
    2- Wooze and Smooze
    3- Give business card and receive business card
    4- Always send a follow up email in the morning and try and arrange a time/date/place to take them for dinner/whatever else
    5- Plan each meeting strategically, what we want to get out of it, what the goal is
    6- Reach some kind of potential agreement in dinner, impress them a lot with our expertise, competency, enthusiasm and all round like ability.

    18) Marketing strategy (b) Get in their face

    Between June - September we will advertise a marketing campaign all over Facebook and other popular areas for Expats / Students with a "we're coming" signal that starts to push the brand into our target audience.

    Once launched we will have dedicated as space set up regularly to keep our company in the view of everybody. Local advertising can be used popular local bars such as House Bar, Godzsdu etc

    19) Marketing strategy (c)

    We will deliver the best product. People love to talk about their apartments. They love to show off their apartments and people always ask others for help about apartments. Our service will be of the highest quality that people will always recommend us, there will be no other choice. **** Airbnb and their inflated prices, **** Albertlet with their awful customer services and **** all the other sites with their awful unworkable websites

    20- Swot Analysis & Risk Analysis with explanations & solutions

    Strengths-


    We have multi dimensional yet inter-linkable revenue streams that blend in perfectly

    We have good experience in all of these areas
    Budapest is a growing market, every year more English speaking people move here

    We are competent

    We will have the best website in the industry

    We are very well connected in Budapest and know a lot of good people whilst also having the correct personalities for networking with new people


    Weaknesses-

    AirBNB has shifted a lot of focus away from rental companies and cut out the middle man (even though Airbnb still take a fee)

    We're not currently functional, no space, no business, no website


    Opportunities

    AirBNB bubble could likely pop once the prices vs average wage get unsustainably high

    Huge potential chances of contracts for construction side of the company

    Huge advantage in terms of acquiring the best houses in the for sale market with opportunity of high margins for re-selling

    Could also lead into property management, 100 properties c €100/month = €120,000/year (huge revenue stream especially if can get to more properties) once reputation gets to acceptable level we would be the trusted, reputable company people would want to look after their house.

    Threats

    Real estate is always popular company for people to do and other new competent competitors could swing in and take some of our market share


    21) Summary and thoughts

    Despite writing this on a 2 hour flight I think the business model is extremely solid and we have a lot of foundations for initial stability whilst also a huge opportunity for exponential growth. The idea of the company being the leading property company in Budapest renting out 500 properties a year, having a portfolio of 50 purchased houses and working on national and international construction contracts may on the surface seem ambitious but in hindsight seems manageable.

    As in any business there will always be set backs, unexpected costs and lots of lows, but with our two personalities I think there is extremely good chances for other doors to open.

    I'm looking forward to hearing your feedback and thoughts.
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    Old 04-29-2016, 03:47 AM   #2615
    daChimp
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Patrick, Biz Plan looks pretty good mate. I have rented houses and apartments I've owned over the years as well. I am currently a Europe and Africa regional facility manager of US Dept of Defense, so I know a little about real property, maintenance, construction, etc.

    There are some items missing from your calcs that either weren't spelled out, or just missed that should be considered...

    1) vacancy rate. You will not have all apartments and rooms rented at all times. People move out, you will need down time to maintain (re-paint, minor maintenance, etc).

    2) insurance. You have to protect yourself, your company, and your net worth. If a flat burns down due to electrical fire with all the tenant's items located inside, there could be liability there. You can think of several other scenarios. You can require tenant to absorb some of this cost as a fee outside of the rental contract to keep fees separate. Also, as you add properties, this expanse will also increase.

    3) limited available real property. Your optimistic line assumes endless supply of locations available for purchase. There may be, I'm not sure on your market. But as you make these purchases you will want to be selective then... Try to reduce the amount of time and funding to improve infrastructure. I also didn't see the re-investment $$$ going back into BitB Property to purchase new real property.

    Just a couple things that jumped out at me. Some other things to consider outside your biz plan...

    Renovations: you usually get what you pay for. Go cheap get cheap. Go expensive maybe get quality if project scope is written properly and good project mgt. There are 3 main legs to project mgt to consider-- cost, quality, and time. Cutting 1 reduces another; ideal to balance all three.

    Furnishing: you may need to furnish common areas and some flats. Second hand markets, IKEA, and such will get your place looking great at a reasonable expense.

    Ok... My fingers are tired. PM me and I can share my Skype if you want any additional perspective.

    Cheers.
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    Old 04-29-2016, 05:37 AM   #2616
    PlasticElephant
     
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    I think WCG is either trolling or just generally not in the loop. GTO solvers include rake, and preflop for a lot of spots are soft solved. Anyone who uses PIO and looks at OTB can't tell me that he isn't heavily basing his strategy on solver results. #appealtoauthority
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    Old 04-29-2016, 05:44 AM   #2617
    juggler97531
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    for what I remember OTB played GTO way before postflop solvers were released.
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    Old 04-29-2016, 05:45 AM   #2618
    PlasticElephant
     
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Yeah. Probably the solvers copying OTB then.
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    Old 04-29-2016, 06:35 AM   #2619
    playr
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    hey pads if there is any job opportunities will be available in the future plz post about those in here too i live in hungary and likely i will need to find a job soon
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    Old 04-29-2016, 08:18 AM   #2620
    Re8uZ
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    I asume that 12/9/16/16/8bb spot is at ft so some icm aply
    I thibk nk AQ(aj)+/99(88)+ should be call depending n villain we can wider our range with AT/77 maybee KQs

    About tha t6 spot can you explayin please why u wont turn btn to f your range into bluf in that spot, u think is bad or what/why??
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    Old 04-29-2016, 08:35 AM   #2621
    blakkman08
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Flop checks through. Bottom of our range is Sth like 75o and similar hands. I m assuming you re talking about bluffing with 97 which presumably made a pair on river. So many bluffs to chose from, 97 is way too strong to bluff. If not carry on I m hungover out of my mind
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    Old 04-29-2016, 09:47 AM   #2622
    Big_Mick00
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    Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Ye, pairs are too strong to bluff given our BB range and flop action. 7x not close to bottom of our range

    Also agree with plastic elephant about solvers, to many crushers use them to be bs.
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    Old 04-29-2016, 10:25 AM   #2623
    PlasticElephant
     
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    Also just anyone with a basic understanding of maths can look at how they work/ what they are doing and see they aren't a 'scam', especially given how cheap they are. Genuinely think it's a pretty ridiculous thing to say on WCGs part.

    Also there's not a division between playing exploitatively and using a solver, tons of people use solvers to improve their exploitative game. Especially in timbey, the potential capacity to own yourself through street mathed exploitative deviations is pretty high. It's pretty common knowledge within psychology community etc that the human brain just can never match computers on this kind of thing and generally makes big mistakes. (EG, first study that springs to mind is football 'experts' predicting next seasons PL standings being smashed by algorithms with one variable (shots), and also not performing better than they would had they just precicted same table as last year)

    Not saying the age of street math is over, just think that exploitative play off top of head is clearly going to be worse year on year from now on out.
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    Old 04-29-2016, 11:44 AM   #2624
    Rsiatat
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    I think business plan looks good even tho there might be more things to consider , but still "always starting from bottom scratch can't loose you much " :P

    Very brave of you anyway posting here your business idea and a part of your plan , there enough ppl with money reading this that could steal ideas :P


    I wish u lots of succes !
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    Old 04-29-2016, 01:01 PM   #2625
    ac3play
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    Re: Pads1161 #bracelethunting

    ^ poker players are too lazy to steal ideas

    Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
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