Dk the history between us and villain but on the fd flop i would raise(backdoor fd would be nice). I think in this couple of positions he has a fairly wide cbet range, because we have quite a big defending range also. Don t like c calling because he is likely to barell 2 streets on this board with gutshots, backdoors and also it s very likely he has 2 overs to our pair.

On the second case i think c folding is the best option, mainly because with c raising we represent only a small number of value combos and villain is more inclined to float us lighter...

p.s: I experimented c raising on kjx kqx fd from bb vs hj,co,b and it worked quite well..Don t know if the sample is enough though(last 2,3 months) but from what i recall it works quite well. Having some equity also helps :P

it all depends of who the villain is
- if it is our fd i think ch/c F, ch/rai T should be ok line imo, if is random FD and we have back door FD ch/c once decide turn imo vs weaker oponent is ok too if not ch/f think is best
- KJ4r i think i if we have back door i'm more in ch/c F evaluate>ch/f> also ch/r is ok if we r planing to barel T/R vs some villains depending on stats or just make move there and give up vs other villains (imo if we ch/r in that spot we should have clear plan r we c/r giving up or c/r bareling if we cant decide ch/f or ch/c with backdor FD think is best)
note: vs randoms i think pasive line is better cos 2,5c open sugest that they have stronger range to start with

Just a guess really, but without a backdoor draw I think we could actually consider folding, presuming villain is competent with barreling.

Its easy to get into the habit of continuing with every single pair, and its usually going to be wrong to check/fold a pair on the flop, but when you add up all the Kx, Jx, gutshots, flush draws, and backdoor draws then 54 with no backup is actually miles down in our range and we might be overdefending if we're just blindly continuing with it given how many other hands have better equity or equity which will be easier to realise.

If villain is decent then he unless we hit a 5 or a 4 he should be able to get us to fold very very often when he's behind given two cards to come and 90% of the deck being bad for us, and he'll get to showdown with his marginal but better than bottom pair no kicker hands very easily as well. There's also the fact that even his air has very good equity vs our hand.

Of course if villain is the type to just way overcbet the flop and then give up its an easy call, but vs a good opponent I'd consider folding.

If anybody has good experience doing stars audits to a good level and would like to work with bitBstaking then get in touch via PM and maybe we can work something out.

From a theory perspective (pretty sure this is why pads is asking) it makes absolutely no difference who villain is. Vacuum solutions aren't always that useful in MTT poker ime, but I think that's what we're supposed to be going for.

Will take a stab at this if I have time and pen/paper later on.

i'm pretty sure we should use a mixed strat there from a theoritical point of view

Interesting, will leave it open for a couple of more days because still quite a lot of discussion

Mixed strats will be in play. Calling is just about OK, I think, but check-raising in both spots would be my preference.
Why? We won't often get our hand to showdown by calling down (villain can barrel off with his gutters, better hands and some air) so we should check-raise for protection/semi-bluff to deny villain the chance to realize his equity with a bunch of "air" hands that have 6 outs against us. (It's a disaster for us to let hands like T9/T8 see the turn and river cheaply/for free).
We can call with Kx, Jx and AT/QT (check-raise the latter sometimes too), but I think just about everything else in our continuance range (44, KJ, 4x) should be check-raising at quite a high frequency.

I was about to post the exact same thing as the guy above me. Smart dude

Hej Pads, great blog, keep doing it man!

Did I understand correctly, that you think, that working with PIOsolver is pointless?

If so, then what is your reasoning behind that?

I think it's a very useful tool, which is not 100% applicable to MTTs. I think you still can learn tons though. In my view, the real life ranges and sizings differ just a lot, from what a GTO-solver recommends.

You're open and you're telling a consistent story.
Really well done. I might read this more often.
Mad respect for the way you approach poker.
And (it pains me to write this) good luck!

thanks man

i have a lot to catch up on. big post coming soonish

good post

glz

Curious as to what you think about some of the HR guys and their % in tournaments, have read before you said many play for less than 10% but don't think you mentioned anyone.

For example, Igor just fired 5x bullets in a 30-40 entrant Aussie Mills 100k with first being 1.6m. What is the absolute most % you can see him having here. Am I crazy to think it's like 5-15%?

He'd probably have a better knowledge of Fedor, who fired 4 bullets

So I made a decision a while ago that whenever I was really frustrated about how I was running I just wouldn't post in here. I used to treat it as a diary when I posted my emotions on a daily basis, but I realise that it could be so annoying for 99% of the readership for me to write about me saying "fml running bad" I'm very happy with my all round game though. Have been looking into some very unique spots for MTTs at around 5-30bbs this year and trying to tweak a few things. One of the best things about running the stable is that we have to be very stats based meaning I'm checking my own stats on very regular basis and previously where I didn't quite know what needed to be what in terms of %s I'm pretty sure right now exactly what %s I should be aiming for. For example Cut off rfi, Cut off evbb/100, cut off fold to 3bet, cut off cbet, cut off turn cbet, cut off river cbet, cut off raise flop etc etc. So overall, it is really helping my game being in the stable.

This month has been really good. We chopped the Sunday Million for our biggest ever score, had our 2nd ever biggest score winning a huge Galactic event and have won a bunch of other stuff for around $320k profit so far this month. Going into the year we thought our expectation was around $1-$1.5m profit on the tables, so we're really happy about the start of the year and shifting the goalposts a little bit. Running a stable is actually a lot more difficult than you'd imagine, especially if you're doing a lot of coaching. For example, if you're coaching 3 or 4 times in a week, usually midweek then the times are usually around 4pm-6pm it means that you usually have to be in the house at 3pm and usually won't leave the house till after 7pm, thats a bit chunk of the day that means the day is often "lost" because of it. Especially if I try to play tournaments myself then playing a late session the night before then waking up early, being productive, going to the gym and playing another session that night of tournaments whilst coaching in the middle is very, very tough to manage. Often it becomes simply wake up 10 minutes before coaching, do coaching, shower, eat, start grinding, finish, check on all horses, rail bit, prepare for coaching next day, try to sleep. Its a lot less glamorous at least than most would imagine, a big grind for sure and big commitment. Don't get me wrong I really enjoy it and its fun, and being part of a team of people that are so positive and so happy for each other to do well is great.

Personally I've had some nice runs this year, I'm playing a lot more on winamax (anonymously) and had 2 big final tables, unfortunately finished 5th both times when there was $80k+ ftw, but thats fine. I think I made some slight mistakes in the second one. I'll share a hh actually.


6 handed

Stacks are

button 1.5m
sb 1.4m
me 1.4m
utg 350k
utg1 700k
co 450k

blinds 12.5k/25k 30 minute clock, every level.

payouts something like

15k
xk
xk
xk
xk
85k

Button is hyper lag and opens to 55.5k, I flat QQ. (Number 1)

Flop is 872ssx he bets 71k into 150k, we call. (Number 2)

Turn is 8729ssxx he bets 175k into 284k after around 3-4 seconds of thought, we fold (Number 3)


1- I think having no 3bet range here is OK. I'm unsure exactly. I think 3betting is fine too, in game I decided to just flat everything though. Villain had shown signs of incredible aggression thus far so potentially inducing some kind of 6b fold is possible, but I'm too old for that **** now.

2- I think flop is clear call, don't really want to have raising range here

3- Turn is incredible tough. On the flop he bet around 47%, on the turn he INCREASES his turn sizing to 61%. The way his range is constructed I think is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT in his decision to increase the % OF THE POT that he bets on the turn. I think the timing is also massively important. This is the biggest post flop pot of the tournament so far (POTENTIALLY ) and this is a very important turn size for him, his turn bet is very COMFORTABLE in his mind and he doesn't have any problems increasing the sizing. We need 27% to make a breakeven call, the problem is here, with the way the stacks are distributed, I don't want to make a breakeven call here, I'm fine passing up a breakeven spot here to allow my stack to be somewhat consolidated and far away from the other stacks. Laddering on final tables is really important. My in game analysis was when he bets 47%-62% its very likely the trend of bet sizes would increases and that he would bet somewhere between 80-120% on the river, so with this line of thought from him I constructed his range to be draws + value hands (value hands being 2 pair+) unfortunately QQ blocks QJ/QT here for some natural bluffs, so his most likely bluffs here are going to be flush/combo draws like txss, 5xss, axss etc. For me to call the turn here I think he needs to be betting around 20% of his 9x combos, in game I figured with all the information I had that this was probably a little bit too ambitious and made a pretty tough fold.

No idea if it was a correct fold, I hate the train of thought of "you flat pre so you have to call down" that is just such an incredibly flawed logic in my opinion. Sure I would call a bunch of run outs, but poker is an information game, we have to put all the pieces of the jigsaw together and create a picture to make correct decisions, I felt he was the kind of player to be opening all the 2 pair combos and of course has all sets/straights etc etc. QQ here on 8729 is a really ugly bluff catcher. It is also not like I will be massively overflowing the turn I don't think. I think calling turn with a hand like T8 could be significantly better than QQ, we block 82, 87, 98, TJ, T6 and still have the opportunity of improving against a bunch of hands and implied odds of him blasting off when we improve too. QQ is relatively static here imo. Anyway, let me know what you guys think, I took a bit of stick from friends on this hand, so has been on my mind somewhat!

Next trip is Dublin, I wasn't going to go, but Stars won't let me change because I won seats to UKIPT and the Main. Going with a few guys from the stable, so that will be fun too. Going to be playing everything, really looking forward to that.

Fitness wise is kind of interesting. I have ate a lot better this year. No chocolate, no fizzy drinks, no sweets, no fries AT ALL (anybody who knows me knows this is huge ) today is first day with a new chef/nutritionist, she will be bringing 3 meals /day 6 days a week and have it tailored to exactly how much carbs/protein/calories I want. Gym wise I have been going around 2x/week, this will gradually increase. Today I'm playing football at 11am with 12 Hungarian poker players. Last year was basically be waking up at 4pm every day and heading down to KFC, eating it around 4x/week and generally eating and drinking a bunch of trash food and drink. I'm glad how January has gone so far. February will help rectify my sleeping patterns a little bit as I will be in Dublin for over 10 days where I'll need to be up early.

Football season starts in March after this extended winter break, who knows maybe I'll even be fit enough to bring my boots!

Very big Tuesday today, so many great tournaments, $1.5k on 888, $1k STU, lots of stuff. Lets hope for a deep run in something.

Vamos and gl all

I know that there was a couple of the guys who used to play for between 1-5% free rolls in all these tournaments. So I guess they would play $100k and a $50, have 3% free roll of their action and lets say 10% roi, so they would have around $300k in buy ins (be generous) 5% free roll (generous) and 10% roi (generous) the most they would be making would be around $1.5k, lets even say they made $3k. They are flying around the world spending tonnes of money on hotels/flights/keeping up with high roller life, it sounds bit **** right? But then again lets look at the green grass over there, they are travelling to the best places in the world, playing and socialising with some of the smartest guys out there and learning poker from the best in the world, its hardly a **** life huh?

I know that Igor sells, my friends have bought action from him, I don't know and wouldn't say exactly how much he sells/what markups etc, but if I had to guess, I would say he had around 20-25% of all the bullets, however I imagine he has action in a bunch of others in the field too.

I'm actually often very intrigued about who is buying in who in these high rollers. I know that some of the American guys have very rich businessmen who put them in everything and just enjoy the sweat. If you run well for a few tournaments then it probably secures you staking for this stuff for significant period of times.

Previously when stars used to give free hotels for the stay people would pay and literally sell 95% and at markup and then when you take into account the free roll of hotels (Monaco is ****ing expensive!) then they basically play a tournament with a 5% free roll, also stars used to give FPPs for live tournaments too, so it worked out a very nice deal for those shrewd guys!

Obviously there is a German "fund" that is buying action in a lot of guys. I won't go too much into that although the guy who runs it is a very, very nice guy (my ex backer actually!) and very popular in the community.

If a guy starts randomly selling action publicly I'm always a little skeptical. It means that the people who were buying in him don't want to anymore, or they feel the markups he charges are too high, they probably have a good understanding of the high roller field better than I do so it puts me off wanting to invest. I think generally buying action in people who sell publicly in high rollers is not going to be a wise move. I could be totally wrong about this though, just my strategy.

I think the real value is in the one day turbos. The guys who do all the live stuff really well, stare downs, psychological stuff, play well deep, have cash game backgrounds or whatever else perform poorly in these 1 day turbos imo. Playing 5-30bbs is just so different to "normal poker" you can't just "wait it out" or "wait for people to punt" its a turbo. I've heard of some ridiculous hands that people wouldn't believe from these one day turbos. People will be way too tight in certain spots and way too loose in certain spots. Also the live stuff doesn't really work, if I'm running a 3 street 100bb bluff vs Timex then I very possibly am going to be ****ting myself and he can make a call vs a smell he gets from under the table, in a turbo I'm going to simply be shoving, knowing its good and not really sweating it that hard. I'll just envisage the holdem resources calculator telling me I should be making 1.76bb this hand and loving life.

Unfortunately, most of these one day turbos happen on day1b of EPTs where Day1a is a Sunday meaning that I have to skip a Sunday session to play it, and I'm not going to do that. Feel happy investing money in others in them though.

I'll take tonka/connorb and those guys in those fields very happily, also those kinda guys not in the hr scene will very likely be charging less/no markups which is attractive.


In general my opinion about these highrolers is simply

lolvariance
loldonkaments
lolego
lolpeoplethinkingsomebodyisgoatbecausetheywontwo45 mansngs
lolpeoplethinkingtheyaregoatbecausetheywontwo45man sngs
lol
lol
lol


I have no idea how much Fedor had, I think he had around 20% of the Manilla score, so take of that what you will.

QQ hand is interesting, my concern would be that unknown lags are often waaay overbluffing, he might be barreling every Tx combo, plus some Jx, 6x and random flush draws, all of which have decent equity of course but that's still a lot of combos of nothing!

BTW you never got back to the 54s spot you posted about.

Hey,

The problem is, if he is such a hyper lag then he will likely be betting river over 85% of the time with all gunshots that he can convince himself he's at a part of his range that he needs to bluff and that I would have raised a set on the flop or something like that, so its likely he blasts the river again, and as we expect his % of pot size to increase, we can expect a river bet off potentially 500k, and with the stacks and ICM I think would be impossible call.

Regarding 54s, I think folding the flop is good without any back door flush draw or information on opponent. I'd rather continue with other hands on this flop.

OK yeah, like most cash players I probably consistently under value the importance of ICM - to my mind when you list all the combos he can bluff and the amount of times these will bomb the river it sounds like a decent outcome, but I suppose what you're saying is that this is just one of those spots where he can bet big enough on the river, and he has enough nutty combos, that he "gets" to make us overfold?

Glad I was on the right track with 54s anyway!

Yes, exactly!

Not sure vilain will often fire a 80%-120% bet river. I think in this board, when people bet so big on the turn, they expect you to fold so often on the turn given u have many broadways in their eyes that u flat pf and peel on the flop.
So when you call turn, i expect vilain to shut down on many rivers given that you still have 77/88/99 in your range and because of icm implications.

Hey! Just found this awesome thread, enjoyed reading it. Will obv follow
Gl today mate, hope u will ship something for us
I also live in Bp Hope we can meet for a beer/meal
Glgl, cheers

QQ hand, pre fine with those stack sizes and icm i also prefer call vs 3bet

flop is interesting... i think leading/evaluate should be good here

as played on flop i think i will lead most turns (except A/K/Q) 40-60% pot and evaluate i think he will rarely(read never) raise draws/weak made showdown hands here cos u have all sets/2pairs/str8 combos in your range that you r bet/jaming with ( u should have them imo) so i think he will be prety honest when you lead turn,
also plan is to check almost all river and i also think that he will be pretty honest on rivers too from same reasoning (i understand that u were taking pot control line but imo vs agro spewtards best pot control line is to do the bet sizing by your self)

as you played the hand I DO NOT AGREE that his betting pot % tendencies are to bomb river, imo his hand in my eyes (in vacum) looks like made hand that wants protection/want to charge you from drawing/ or some 9T/J9 TT/JJ A8 J8 type of hand, im prety sure that most rivers as played will go check/check
I WILL CALL TURN as played and evaluate rivers

@Pads No wonder you crush MTT's and I'm not , you're thought process in that QQ hand blows my mind (I'm not trolling), but I agree with @Re8uz we should call turn and re-evaluate river.
Overall I think you give people to much credit.
I <3 this thread.

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