Had a nice session today, obviously one session is meaningless, but I take solace in the small victories!
Got in 200bb drawing dead/nearly dead multiple times set over set to start the session, took a break, came back, table selected, focused on few tables, had my water with me, and battled back to profit!
PokerBros - $2 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 4 players
CO: $177.80 (88.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $400.00 (200 bb)
SB: $221.00 (110.5 bb)
BB: $240.00 (120 bb)
SB posts $1.00, BB posts $2.00
Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has 6
2
8
6
fold,
Hero raises to $4.00,
SB raises to $14.00, fold,
Hero calls $10.00
Flop: ($30.00, 2 players) 4
3
9
SB bets $24.00,
Hero calls $24.00
Turn: ($78.00, 2 players) T
SB checks,
Hero checks
River: ($78.00, 2 players) 9
SB bets $59.00,
Hero raises to $255.00, SB calls $124.00 and is all-in
Results: $444.00 pot ($6.50 rake)
Final Board: 4
3
9
T
9
Hero shows 6
2
8
6
:
(Two Pair, Nines and Sixes)
(Pre 48%, Flop 41%, Turn 38%)
SB shows A
4
Q
4
:
(Full House, Fours full of Nines)
(Pre 52%, Flop 59%, Turn 63%)
SB wins $437.50
Had this punt, I accidentally misclicked to min raise instead of folding preflop and then the hand went off the rails. On the river coach said it was extremely spewy. We did a bit of math and assuming V never bluffs, we need them to fold an overpair ~93% of the time in order to make this bluff profitable.
My thoughts on the spot in general is that I'm jamming any 9 here, especially the worst 9s for example 9662 because they unblock overpairs that could bet call. If he is folding overpairs, I am only generating EV by bluffing in this spot, or coolering a 9 or small boat. (raise or call a 9 would be EV negative if he will fold all overpairs and I win at showdown if I call anyways. Because I can lose to random boat, better 9.). If he isn't folding overpairs I think he will end up calling vs a 9 too often.
I think it's significantly a bad play, but I don't think I lose a ton of EV by making a move here. Especially factoring in that he will have some autofolds (bluffs)
Interestingly, when coach asked how much I would expect villain to have to fold overpairs in order to make a bluff good here, my instinct doing head math was 80-85%, leaning towards 85%. I was surprised that the low end of my estimate was so far from the reality. So honing my mental math might be nice. Although I did some rounding with pot size, so that could explain how far off my guess was.