Thank you! It means a lot hearing people enjoy reading what I write. I didn't talk much about the merge this post but it's been fun, specifically in cash, feeling out the Michigan regs as they feel out the NJ regs. Like I said, I'll go into this more in a separate post, but I'd imagine a lot of the Michigan guys started playing full time in the last few years or so (since Michigan didn't get regulated poker until early 2021). This leads to some general differences between how they play and how the NJ guys who have been on the last 9 years or so play. That being said, there are a few new NJ guys as well who've joined in the last year or so that've been good prep for dealing with this play style. I'm rambling now; more in a future post.

Agreed, the merge is exciting, hopefully more states are on board soon!

Maybe PA will join at some point and I'll get a chance to play against you

I'm curious-do you track EV BB/100 at all? I'm curious what your difference is between cash and MTT and how much relevance you put into it for MTTs

Long time lurker, making my first post now to tell you I'm really excited for this post as I really wanna hear your thoughts on this.

How is the PKO vs Vanilla ratio in the pools you play? are they also increasing the % of PKO tourneys as in the ROW sites?

Much respect from a fellow grinder and best of luck in this 2023!

I don't really look at that stat at all in MTTs. There's such a large amount of variance in MTTs that it's pretty easy to get coolered in standard spots a bunch of times in a row, which will show your all in EV as low or negative, which may lead you to make some incorrect conclusions. Even in cash it's easy to go on a stretch of running KK into AA a bunch without it going the other way, so it's important to be careful to not put too much stock into the stat. Over a very large sample I think it's fine to look at but focusing on how you're actually playing is more important imo.

Thanks, I think I'll get around to it soon.

I haven't noticed PKOs being offered way more or anything lately. I've been playing a lot of cash compared to MTTs recently though so I might not be the best to ask.

Thanks, good luck to you too!

New School vs Old School Professional Poker Players

For the purpose of this post I’m going to define a “New School” professional poker player as someone who started making a living playing poker within the last 5 years.

Now I don’t consider myself an Old School pro by any means but simply for the topic of this post, I’m going to end up fitting into that category. There are plenty of guys I think are true Old School guys who still play for a living today. These guys were playing full time before Black Friday while I was just making spending money in high school and college, and I’m really impressed with that group, but that’s not what I’ll be talking about in this post.

I’m going to start off by talking about my relationship with math throughout my life. This sounds like a strange way to begin but trust me, I’ll bring it back around. I have always been obsessed with numbers and patterns.

My Love Relationship With Math

When I was 4 years old I asked my mom what number comes before 0 when she was pushing me on the swing.

When I was 5 I told her that multiples of 9 add 1 to the 10s place and subtract 1 from the 1s place every time they increase by 1. I’d never been shown the finger trick; I just came up with that on my own.

When I was 6 I was in 1st grade and we played Around the World. The first 2 students stood up, the teacher showed a flash card with a basic addition/subtraction problem on it, and the first student to call out the answer moved on. The next student stood up and it continued. When you lost you sat down in the seat of the person who beat you, and the first person to get all the way back to their desk won the game.

No one in my class ever beat me. And I don’t mean in the overall game; I mean not one time did anyone win a single round against me. This includes the time my teacher decided to challenge me since I’d won so many times that it was decided I wouldn’t be participating in the game anymore. The assistant teacher holds up 8+8, we both simultaneously call out 16, the teacher insists she’s won because she’s certainly not going to admit defeat against a 6 year old, the kids insist I’ve won, and the assistant calls it a tie. They told me I could skip math homework for a week.

In 6th grade I took some nationwide test and finished in the 99th percentile and was upset I didn’t finish in the 100th percentile (I don’t think that was possible).

In 8th grade I was in the “Scholastic Olympics,” a competition where each school in the county brought their 3 top students in each subject to take a test and the top 3 in the county got a medal. I was devastated when I came in 2nd and didn’t understand how that could have happened.

In 11th grade I took the SAT and was extremely disappointed with the 710 I got on the Math section so I took it again a month later and got an 800.

In 12th grade I took AP Calculus. It started off the way all my other math classes did. I paid very little attention in class, did the homework necessary to get an A, got 100s on the tests, and enjoyed myself. But about halfway through that class I remember taking a test and thinking, “I don’t know what this means.”

Me and Math Hit a Rough Patch

You see, when you get to a certain point in math, regardless of how smart you are, some amount of effort has to be put into it to understand it. For many people that point comes at a young age, for some geniuses that probably doesn’t come until college or beyond. For me it was this damn AP Calc class.

I did so poorly the first semester that I needed to have my parents sign some sort of a waiver to continue on into the second semester. I’d never had to try at math before and I was miserable about it. Eventually I got a tutor, worked hard, and scored a 4 (out of 5) on the AP exam. A 4 or better meant you got college credit for that class, but when I went to college the next year I decided to retake the class to ensure I understood it. And now that I did, I enjoyed math again! It was easy and I didn’t have to work hard and it came naturally to me.

Fast forward 3 years and the end of the first semester of my senior year is fast approaching. I have the same professor for both math classes I’m taking this semester and I’m badly failing both of them. He’s a pretty typical math professor: a nice guy who doesn’t really care about ins and outs of school but rather is just passionate about his subject.

I email him begging him to pass me. He responds he can give me D’s but he wonders if I’d rather he fail me so I can retake the classes and not hurt my GPA. I tell him I couldn’t care any less about my GPA, just give me those credits, so he does.

What happened to me between my senior year of high school and my senior year of college? How had I gone from someone so passionate and talented at something to someone begging to be given a D so he could finally be done with it?

Where Did It All Go Wrong?

I’m most passionate about math when it’s something I can logically work out on my own. It was very common for me to look at a problem on a test, have no idea how to do it based on the way it was taught, find my own way to solve the problem, then reverse engineer it to write down the steps I knew the teacher was looking for. I never *actually* showed my work on a test; I erased all that then showed the “work” I knew I was supposed to. This all went fine for me for the first 18 years of my life.

This wasn’t something I was capable of in Multivariable Calculus, Linear Algebra, or (god forbid) the History of Math. To succeed in courses like these I was going to have to hit the books and spend hours and hours every week in the library learning this stuff. And as a college student running 40 miles and drinking 40 beers a week it was simply something I wasn’t willing to do!

But there were people at my school who were willing to put in the work. These were the people showing up to every class even though attendance wasn’t taken and points weren’t deducted for skipping. These were the people skipping the Tuesday night party once in a while to make sure they were prepared for Wednesday morning’s quiz. These were the people willing to sacrifice to get good grades. Some of them were naturally very smart and some of them weren’t, but all of them were working their asses off to achieve excellence in something that was very, very difficult.

The people with my college mindset and natural ability could succeed in poker 10-15 years ago. Success was almost guaranteed so long as you were talented and put some amount of volume in. Away from the table work would make you better, but it wasn’t required to excel at the game.

People with that mindset trying to enter poker in today’s environment will get absolutely destroyed. If you are new to poker or were only introduced to it in the past 5 years, you must be both extremely naturally talented AND a hard worker to succeed. There is simply too much of a learning curve and the average player is too good today to be able to hop in and win on natural talent alone.

The New School Professional

This leads to the New School professional poker player very often fitting a certain mold. This pro is constantly looking to acquire more knowledge. They want to know the correct answer in every spot and are confident that there is one. These pros “know” that the game is solved and with enough hard work, they can solve it too. GTO Wizard and Pio Solver are their flash cards; the 1/2 games are their weekly classes; the 2/5 games are their monthly tests; the 5/10s and up are their final exams. When things go poorly they’ll simply redouble their efforts and get back in the lab to figure out how to ace that next assignment. When they bluff off a stack against a fish who calls with 5th pair on the river they feel no pain because they know he’s losing money long term by calling there. When they bluff catch an overly aggressive reg with ace high on the river because it unblocks bluffs, only to once again be shown 5th pair, they are quickly able to move on because that combo doesn’t make sense to bluff with and that reg will lose long term bluffing that hand. The sim is their professor and so long as it is telling them they’re doing a good job it doesn’t matter what grade is written on that report card at the end of the year.

The Old School Professional

The Old School professional, on the other hand, grew up in a world before sims. While some crushers pre Black Friday were off partying like I had in college, some did have a solid work ethic and worked hard at improving. “But how was it possible to study before Sir Piotrek graced us with wisdom?” you may ask. Well people just kinda talked to each other. They broke down hands, they talked strategy often, they tried to apply math to spots that made sense. They thought about theory before they had sims that could back them up. They invented toy games and thought about minimum defense frequencies. And they EXPLOITED. That was the key to the kingdom back in the day. Knowing that when you did x your opponent did y was worth you weight in gold over a decade ago. These people were doing the thing I loved doing most in the world as I grew up. They were taking a bunch of numbers and patterns and data and trying to figure out the right answer based on this jumbled mess. And there was no teacher to tell them how to do it. There was no clear textbook to explain step by step how things should be solved. There was just themselves and their intuition and the more you thought about the game and discovered how others thought about the game, the more money you made.

The Pitfalls of Each

Sometimes I’ll watch Twitch streams of guys who are clearly intelligent, hard workers, who joined the game in the past few years. I’ll watch 30 consecutive minutes of them talking about what their hand wants to do and what their range wants to do and whether this combo is a call and whether we can bluff the ace of hearts here. And for 30 minutes there will be absolutely no consideration of what their opponents’ strategy might be, because it SHOULD be this and if it’s not it’s leaking equity anyway. It boggles my mind how much money these new school guys are leaving on the table by putting absolutely no effort into exploiting. I almost wonder if they realize they’re allowed to sometimes. In this classroom the teacher doesn’t need to see your work, and sometimes solving the problem your own unique way better serves you.

On the other hand, I’ll often see an Old School guy make a play that comes so far out of left field that it literally makes me laugh. A guy shoves 3x pot on a river with a bluff in a spot where theory never would use that combo, because he KNOWS this fish is capped, only for the fish to call with a pair of 7s and stack him. Someone betting 10% on river, again in a spot not approved by theory, because in the past that’s always bought him free showdown and he doesn’t want to face a big bet with this weak showdown value. Then when he’s shoved on by the fish, he calls anyway and gets stacked by the nuts. What was the point of the 10% bet in the first place then? This is all to say that Old School pros have their weaknesses too. Straying too far from theory can become problematic and lead to even bigger leaks than following theory and not exploiting does.

Which Player Type is Better?

So who are the better players? Old School or New School? Well there simply is no answer to this. There are plenty of phenomenal players who come from each background. I by no means mean any disrespect to either group. I have a tremendous amount of admiration for guys who have broken into the game in the last 5 years. The amount of hard work and talent it takes to do that is mind-blowing. I also have immense respect for players who have been around for over a decade. It’s no easy task to shift your game as it changes again and again year after year. To go from staring someone in the eyes in 2008 to make your decision to staring deep down into your soul in 2023 trying to remember if the sim would bluff catch this combo or not is truly incredible. I think both groups can learn something from the other.

Which Type Am I Now?

I’ve been doing my best to do just that. I’ve put a lot of hours in the past 4 months into studying with GTO Wizard and trying to understand why it does what it does in every situation. Due to Michigan being a much newer market than New Jersey, I think there are many more players fitting the New School mode from that state. The more I study theory the more I see players trying to duplicate lines the sim would take, especially among the regs I’ve only been playing with since January. And the more I study the more I’m able to recognize errors players are making. There have been many hands now where a player overbets a board where I think “his range can’t support this,” then plug it into the sim after my session to see I was correct. It’s also fun to think about how to exploit someone who is straying from theory. If someone c-bets 876 sb vs btn in a 3b pot, how do I take advantage of the fact that he should be checking range? It’s extremely satisfying to realize I do have what it takes to understand how all of this works, and all I was missing in the past were the tools to do it and the work ethic to grind it out.

This has all led to a renewed excitement to play poker so that I can review tough hands at the end of a session and see if the solver approves. I feel like I’m back in school but I actually want to try this time! However I’m weary of the pitfalls involved in getting tunnel vision with this software. There are so many situations where I think to myself, “well I think the solver would do this, but I think I’m going to make more by doing that,” and then stray from theory. I’ll mark the hand to make sure I’m correct about what theory does, but I won’t be concerned with whether or not I’ve “answered correctly” according to the sim because that is not my goal when playing poker. My goal is to make money. I think I’m finding the balance nicely as the time goes on when it comes to combining the fluid logical problem solving nature of poker from yesteryear with the robotic studied nuanced approach of the future. I hope I can continue to do this in the years to come.

Excellent post and I believe it is spot on.

Great post

Thanks boys

Great post bro... haven't checked this thread in years but I see you are still solid. Gl GL

Thanks! Still hangin in there

Hopping on a flight to Vegas at 7:15 tonight. Will be there for 3 weeks before coming back home for 2 weeks. I'll then head back out for the Main and postlims. I've been lacking on motivation lately so some live poker will be a welcome break.

I want to update this thread each day with how things are going out there but that's probably unrealistic. I'll update as much as possible though; I think that could be a therapeutic way of processing how things are going. That was the original reason I started writing in this thread: an outlet for my thoughts as I dealt with the swings of playing poker full time.

This is definitely the least excited I've felt to go to Vegas before. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to be going, but I feel way more "settled in" to what to expect. It probably also has something to do with having been there less than 2 months ago.

In some ways it's sad that I'm not feeling the butterflies I usually do but in other ways it's a sign of growth. I'm ready to get down to business and I know how likely it is I'll brick a bunch of tourneys. Given I haven't cashed a live tournament outside of the Main in over 3 years I guess it makes sense that there isn't a sense of excitement. Hopefully that changes in the next few weeks and I'll feel at least a little more hyped up when it comes to trying to win a bracelet or a big score at another series. When I think of these prelims I struggle to think of anything other than how many 10 hour days I put in last year only to finish in a 25k hole with 0 cashes as I flew home for my break between the early events and the Main lol. Maybe this trip will be different!

good luck out there

Good luck this summer, hope you get some deep runs!

Thank you!

Wednesday May 31

WSOP Event #3, Tournament of Champions

I won a WSOP ring online several months ago so I was given a freeroll into this tournament. I've never come out to the series this early but I think it'll be nice to be here for 3 weeks, take 2 weeks off, then go back for the last 2-3 weeks.

The tourney started at noon with 10 one hour levels to be played today. I got there at 12:45 for the end of level 1. 30K starting stack and 100/100/100 to start. The table is friendly and seems pretty soft. I'm dealt TT as my first hand of the summer and get a decent sized river value bet paid off to start well.

I wrote a few hands down that I'll post here and try to do that for each tournament. Notation is as follows: x = check, c = call, b = bet, r = raise, f = fold...letters after flop cards (KQ2cc for example) indicate suits. So KQ2cc means 2 clubs on flop, KQ2ccc means monotone, and KQ2r would mean flop is rainbow. If I say flop is KQ2cc then say turn with an x after it (turn is 8x, for example), this means the flush did not get there and no bdfd became available.

At 100/200/200 EP opens to 700. He's an older guy who's been opening a decent amount of hands and I don't think the 3.5x weights him towards very strong hands or anything. I 3b QQ to 2k from mp and he calls. We're 30k effective. Flop 975r and I check back after he checks. I think betting is fine and might be better than checking but I had a few reasons I liked checking. 1) I think my opponent flops a set here a reasonable amount of the time. 2) I think live players love to attack weakness and I'll often get 2 bets from players trying to "get me off AK" after I check. 3) I think I'll often get 2 streets of value myself now from all worse pocket pairs since again, live players love reading into flop checks as meaning you're not allowed to have a good hand. Turn is an off suit 3, he b's 2.5k I c, river 2x (board is 97532) he bets 4k into 9.5k, I consider raising but decide on just a call.

I open to 700 at 200/300/300 with A7s from EP, older guy calls HJ, BB calls, flop A43cc checks through, turn Tx I b 900 2600 HJ c, river 7c I b 1600 into 4400. He takes some time then raises to 4500. I think I have to begrudgingly pay here. I highly doubt he's raising worse for value but it's possible. I went small on turn and river trying to get paid by 88 types of hands but for all I know these sizings have induced a bluff. He's also gone so small that I don't have to be right very often so I call.

I go 700 from EP with QdJs, bb calls, 952dd I b 1k into 1.9k he c's, turn 8x I b 3k into 3.9k he c, river 5d I b 8k into 9.9k. I'm not betting flop often with my range so I think a bigger size is good when I do. This is a board I'll probably check some AA and KK along with weaker value hands like 88 or 65s. I want my bluffs to have some sort of equity so this 2 over bdfd bdsd type of hand seemed good. I pick up equity on turn and even though this card is good for my opponent's range I think it's one I still want to bluff on some amount. On river when flush completes I think I gotta go for it. He tanked a long time before checking so it felt to me in game like he had a hand that did not want to face a bet.

These next two I didn't write down but I have the main gist of the hands. I open button with 77 and SB calls. Flop 522cc she checks I bet half pot she calls. Turn Jx goes xx. River Kx she bets 40%. She was vpiping a lot of hands and I really felt like I was gonna get shown some nonsense sometimes. I think she might show Jx here once in a while but part of me feels people are not value betting thin so she has a K or better. Having a K is kinda tough here but KQ or KTs sorts of stuff wouldn't surprise me. I wouldn't be shocked to see random hands bluffing here though so I call.

I open button with 96ss and older guy in BB calls. This is the same player I had the A7 against. Flop comes A98ddh and goes xx. Turn is Ah and he bets 75%, I call. River Tx he bets 40%. This smallish sizing feels similar to what he did when he bluffed the 22 earlier. The T is not the river I had in mind but 2 flush draws have missed and I just saw a girl call half pot on flop with K3o on 522, so I'm ready to see anything at these showdowns. Add to this that I checked flop which is often the green light for people to bet with anything and everything in these live tournaments. I kinda don't think he's gonna value bet thin with a T either. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised to see K3o yet again here! I call.

I chip down and end up in grind mode but with these 1 hour levels there's a lot of time to maneuver. I eventually shove A9s for 13k over a 2k open at 500/1k/1k from CO vs HJ. The BB gets a count and flats, the HJ tells me he was calling me but folds now, and the BB shows 55. Winning this flip would get me back to starting for the first time in forever. Flop comes T33cc giving me a flush draw but the Qx turn and 2x river see me hit the showers. As the river hits the HJ mutters "yep, there's my deuce." The summer is in full swing!

The $1k Mystery Bounty awaits tomorrow.

Daily Results

Time working (this will include from the time I'm walking to register my first event of the day until the time I am out / bag my last event of the day) -- 8:40
Buy Ins: $0
Cashes: $0

Overall Results

Time working -- 8:40
Buy Ins: -- $0
Cashes: -- $0

Good luck - def can echo your sentiment about what to expect and not feeling as excited. Hopefully catch you out there for a quick chat.

Welcome to grind of being a pro for more than a few years lol. Definitely hit me up when you're out here we could grab dinner or a drink or w/e.

Day 2: Thursday June 1

WSOP Event #3, $1000 Mystery Bounty, Day 1B

Whoops ToC yesterday was Event #4, not 3 as I listed. I could not get going this morning. Woke up at 5am with a pretty bad stomachache, luckily was able to fall back to sleep but felt groggy when I woke up. Took me until 1pm to finally leave the room, got some food and finally got into the tournament around 2. Start of level 9, 1000/1500/1500, 40k starting stack. I open Kd9h in CO to 3500 my first hand dealt, both blinds call, flop QQ5hh x's through, turn 4h x's to me, I bet 5k, both fold, and we're off.

I open KsKc to 3500 from EP. It folds to BB but as SB folds he's worried a card has flashed. BB picks up calling chips then the SB insists he's concerned someone's seen the card and announces he had the Ac. Dealer turns it over. BB puts his chips back in his stack, reconsiders, then calls. Really important to pay attention in live poker as I now know the BB has an ace . Flop comes 753hhh, I bet 1/3 and he folds. I ask if he had an ace and he confirms he did.

I open AJdd to 4500 at 1k/2k now off 40k from UTG. It folds to BB who thinks a while, asks to see my stack, and eventually calls. I didn't get the vibe he was considering shoving, so I think this tanking beforehand was probably with a hand that was pretty speculative. Flop comes J42ss, he x's, I cb 3k into 12k, he raises to 10k. I think I can discount 44 and 22 given that preflop tank (assuming my read was right that he wasn't considering shoving). So I call under the assumption there's gonna be a decent amount of straight draws and weak flush draws in his range. Turn is the 9s and he shoves for pot. The spade isn't my favorite card to see but I still think I need to just run it. I call and lose to 42s. I think my preflop read was good!

Running in Vegas

I was torn between playing cash and playing the online event on my phone, or going on a run and taking it easy in my room. Option 2 allowed me to also play the circuit event online on my laptop. It'd also help in my pursuit of feeling good throughout these 3 weeks. A run once in a while is gonna be important when I'm stuck in a hotel/casino the entire trip. I ran 3 miles at 8:02 pace. The first mile felt effortless and I literally wasn't sweating. By the end of the run I'd hit my highest recorded heart rate on this watch at 200bpm and kinda felt like I was dying. Vegas weather is wild.

WSOP Online Bracelet #1, $333

Back in my room I took a shower and then hopped in the MTT. I ended up firing 3 bullets. I chipped down to 3.5bb on the last bullet before spinning to 35bb in one orbit. I then folded down to dust again before busting around 280th with 240 paying. The circuit event didn't go well either so after max late regging a $250 mtt and busting it I was done for the day.

Daily Results

Time Working -- 5:40
Buy Ins: $1999 (I'll only count live tournaments and online bracelet events here; ring events / standard online events will be mentioned in updates but not counted towards totals)
Cashes: $0

Overall Results

Time Working -- 14:20
Buy Ins: $1999
Cashes: $0

Day 3: Friday June 2

WSOP Event #3, $1000 Mystery Bounty, Day 1C

Got to the tourney earlier today, getting dealt one hand before the first break started. 40K starting, came back to 300/600, and my goodness was I reminded why so many people make the trip to Vegas to play in this series. Several whales at each table I played today.

I lost a few small pots before being dealt KK in the CO with 33k still at 300/600. MP limps, I 2400, he 6700, I 14k (lol), he shoves, I call and beat JJ. Our table breaks and at the new table action folds to the button who opens to 4k at 800/1600 off of about 32k. I make it 12k in the SB with QQ and he calls. Flop is KK3hh and I bet 6500 into 27k which he calls. Turn 9x I check, he shoves 20k, I call and beat 88. I've got exactly 100k at this point.

Unfortunately that may have been the last hand I won this tourney. I open to 4500 UTG at 1k/2k with 99, SB calls, BB squeezes to 21k. As tight as it might seem I think a fold here is fine. People sometimes get out of line pre in a tournament like this but squeezing from the BB vs a UTG open is really not a spot I expect to see it from. I fold and the BB then asks me if my name is Dan . He tells me he used to follow this thread and he thought he recognized me. Shout out to Troy (I am 95% sure that's what his name was and I'm sorry if I got it wrong!)

Later I open AsAc to 4500 at 2kbb from UTG1 and get calls from both blinds. 876dd checks to me and I check. I'm confident we want to check here in theory but I could be convinced that betting and getting value in these weaker fields is a better play. I check and the off suit 8 turn is quickly checked to me again. I bet 7500 into 15.5k and get called by the SB. River Td and SB leads all in for 13k. My rule of thumb in these live tourneys is to never fold value on river, especially after you've "shown weakness" on a previous street. A few things made me break that rule here. 1) The only draw that hasn't gotten there is some random 5x. 2) I *did* show aggression on the turn even though I checked flop. 3) I am *really* struggling to come up with a hand he's bluffing. 55? He's the SB so there isn't gonna be too much random disconnected stuff. I fold and move on to the next hand.

I open KQo in the HJ off 30bb the CO 3b's and I fold. I'm pretty uncomfortable in these spots live. I don't know where to draw the line with hands that continue with a call. We're too shallow to 4b to a non all in size so what is the weakest off suit hand we still want to call with? In cash KQo is a pretty standard fold in these positions but MTTs are a bit trickier. SPR will be low enough if we call that if we flop top pair we just run it and shrug if we're beat. I struggle to know what population 3b's with here. Some players only 3b really strong hands; some are way out of line. This guy has been somewhat aggressive pre but the only hand I've seen show down came when I opened CO and he 3b BTN w QTs. He's also shown down AA and 88 in other hands he opened pre so nothing way out of line.

After a few more raise/folds out of me our table breaks as they are breaking our entire section. However they send Troy and I to a table one row behind us, where I'm immediately dealt the BB and while we are playing the hand the floor comes over and says we're breaking. What could be worse than losing 5k of your 47k while only being dealt one hand at a new table?

Btn opens to 5k, SB calls, I shove ATo in the bb, button iso's KK and I do not get there.

I went to my room and called my parents back; they'd been wanting to talk to me. They've decided to put our dog down . He's 13.5 years old and his health has really declined in the last few months. They're gonna do that on June 8 so I'm not gonna be able to say goodbye which is pretty sad. My mom insisted he's declined enough that he probably wouldn't even react to me being there, but it still makes me sad I can't give him one last pat on the head and a treat.

I got some dinner then wandered around for a bit. I considered playing cash but ultimately decided I'd register for 1D of the 1k tomorrow and make sure I got there on time at 10am. There were over FIVE THOUSAND entries today which is absolutely absurd, and there will probably be more tomorrow. I am not intereted in waiting in that line so I took care of that today. I'll try to get some good sleep now and be ready to go tomorrow. So much value being there in those early levels and regging now forces me to get there on time since stacks will be put in play immediately this year.

Daily Results

Time Working -- 4:55
Buy Ins: $1000
Cashes: $0

Overall Results

Time Working -- 19:15
Buy Ins: $2999
Cashes: $0

Where do you run in Vegas?

I was there in March and tried running the strip early AM and it was impossible with the overpasses to cross random streets.

Finally created a 2+2 account to reply but have enjoyed the thread for a while now. Good luck out there! Hope you all represent NJ online players well with multiple deep runs!

I ran down Flamingo Road for a little over a mile before looping a small side road to get back to Flamingo then run home.

Day 4: Saturday June 3

WSOP Event #3, $1000 Mystery Bounty, Day 1C

After registering last night I got to my table at 10:15 this morning. Had 39.5k of my 40k starting stack so I'm gonna say I was close enough to showing up on time.

I 3b and get a cbet through with QJs before paying off a small river bet with 66 on KK344 and losing to the bb's 94s. The next hand Jerry Yang opens UTG2 at our 10 handed table at 100/200, 3 players call and I make it a 5 way pot after defending BB with T3hh. Flop comes KT3cc and checks through. Turn 8c gets bet by the SB. I call, the other 3 fold, and the river is an off suit T. SB, who was the BB in the hand I just lost with 66, bets 5k into 8k. I go with a size of 16k and get called to move to around 55k.

Later MP opens and I call 77 in the SB. He's been more active than most at this table. For the first time this series I get that sweet feeling of flopping a set on the AK7ss flop. I check to him and he bets 1/3. I'm kinda torn between raise and call here. This board is quite good for him and in theory he's probably supposed to go big some percent of the time. If he's betting range for a smaller size then raising is probably fine with some stuff. As an exploit I should probably just go ahead and raise and try to get as much money in against Ax as possible. I just worried that this player might have enough of a brain to know how strong my xr is on this board. I also felt he might be the type to start betting big on turns so I went with the call. Looks like the solver raises against pretty much every size he uses, even when he's checking 46% of the time, so my flat is not good regardless of how you look at it. I think this has probably been my biggest leak so far in these live tourneys this summer. I gotta start putting more money in when I have good hands. Turn Kx and I debated leading before checking. This honestly isn't a great card for my hand. His Ax is very likely to check back now and I think players check flop a good amount when they have a K. I'm also somewhat likely to have a K myself so maybe I should just start putting money in now. He also occasionally gets there with AK himself. He checks back and the river is the Js bringing in the flush. I bet 1/3 here, thinking I want to make his Ax uncomfortable and anything bigger probably allows it to fold. That being said, trying to bluff people off top pair is a no no for me in these things, so maybe this logic isn't consistent. I bet 5k into 15k, he takes his time before making it 13k. I don't think this player is going to overvalue a flush and there aren't many for him to have to begin with. I believe the A and K were spades on the flop so the highest flush he can have that I beat is Q9ss. Not a lot of combos of flushes for him. I flat the raise and he shows AK to knock me down to 25k.

A guy moves to my right who is VPIPing an absurd amount, so when MP opens and he flats I decide to shove 44 on the button for 18bb. I honestly might have folded to the open but flat in between felt like such dead money that a shove seemed best. The opener isos with 88 and the board runs 75476 to give me the double.

A player in EP opens to 5500 at 1k/2k off 34k. I 3b to 14k with AKss on the button. He takes his time before flatting and the flop comes T42hhh. He checks and with SPR around 0.6 I decide to just shove and take my equity. He tanks for over 2 minutes before calling with A4cc to drop me to 18k. I get dealt KhKd in MP and shove my last 9bb, CO isos with 9c9s, and the board runs 4 clubs to end my first bullet.

Bullet #2 on the day, #4 overall on the MTT, and the last shot at this tourney. I open AJo UTG to 5500 at 1k/2500 off 40k, btn 3b's, I fold. I defend BB and fold flop the next hand and have 26k. Fold until I'm UTG and shove with AJo at 1500/3k, BB agonizes before folding. Next hand it folds to him again, this time in the SB. He shoves T9o, I call KTs and am up to 70k after getting an open through a few hands later. 1500/3k is about to end and we're all going to go on break when MP opens and I defend 43cc in the BB. Flop comes A65ss and we both check. When the turn is an off suit 2 I can already feel the double up coming. People cbet EVERYTHING on ace high boards. When they check it's almost always either a huge hand or a hand that can show down. I bet 12k into 18k, he says "RAISE!" and throws out 25k in about 2.4 seconds. I shove given I don't really see him ever folding now, he snaps and says "I HAVE A SET!!" I turn my hand over, river is a 5 and he yells "FULL HOUSE!" The 140k pot gets pushed to him and I'm left to wade through the crowd of thousands going on break.

Selling Action

I'm probably going to play the 5K freezeout tomorrow. I'm hoping to sell some more at 1.2 if anyone reading is interested. Full details are here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...zeout-1822997/

I feel quite good with how I'm playing and how I feel. In the past I think I may have scrapped this 5k and settled with playing lower but I'm hoping to sell a little more and get in there tomorrow.

Daily Results

Time Working -- 7:15
Buy Ins: $2000
Cashes: $0

Overall Results

Time Working -- 26:30
Buy Ins: $4999
Cashes: $0

Re: KQo 30bb vs HJ 3b no idea re population but the charts I use call here 100% freq. His 3b CO vs BTN w/ QTs is very bad one of the worst possible linear 3b's to choose so would be more inclined to call w/ KQo or exploit shove which I think is fine as well.

Yeah agree with all of this, the deeper you are the worse KQo is to peel I'd imagine, but shallower you can just make a pair and go with it without feeling too bad.

Day 5: Sunday June 4

WSOP Event #12, $5000 8-Max Freezeout

I elected to play this one and sell off some action rather than firing the Venetian 1600, the Wynn 1100, or the WSOP 600. Both Wynn and Venetian were day 1As so there will be more chances for those, and I was really in the mood to play in a more "prestigious" (idk if that's the right word) event after 4 bullets of the bounty event.

I got there on time and my starting table was not good. We were 6 handed including myself, and I recognized 2 of the American players at the table, Daniel Strelitz and Justin Zaki. There was another American who seemed solid, an aggressive Israeli player and an aggressive French (? maybe not, that was what I got from the accent) player. We really only ended up with 1 fish at the table the whole day, who was on my direct left and set up a ton of squeeze spots for the Israeli player and another player who took Daniel's seat after he got moved. Not sure where he was from but he was clearly friendly with the Israeli player lol.

50k starting stack at 100/200/200, I wrote a bunch of hands down in my phone to be able to report back in case anyone who had a sweat wanted a more in depth look at how the day went. I'll just fire them off now.

EP goes 700 at 200/300, btn calls, I call JTdd in the SB, BB calls. I could certainly squeeze here, I think call and raise are both fine though. Looking at GTOWiz looks like JTs calls 60% and raises 40% so I think I was in the ballpark. Flop comes K95ccd and it checks to the button who bets 1k into 3.1k. I would not highly recommend bluffing in a 4 way pot in the early stages of a tournament, but this spot felt right to me. This was a tough table where "waiting for good spots" wasn't really going to be a strategy I was looking to employ. I was ready to push edges wherever I thought I saw them. I'd definitely check raise 99, 55, and K9s here, and with 2 players behind me who are more than capable of having raising ranges themselves, I didn't love calling. I think call is probably okay but it's quite hard to win the pot when you do. I xr to 4k.

I make it 1200 from UTG1 at 300/500 and UTG2 makes it 3300. I call and flop comes 544dd. I xc 3k, turn 3x goes xx, river Ad goes xx and I lose to QQ. Definitely coulda lost more there.

I defend Q4dd vs HJ open and SB call. Flop comes AJTdd, HJ bets 3k into 4k, I call. Turn Ax checks through, river Tx I bet 5.2k. This was my first of 3 mistakes that I'm kinda disappointed with myself in. I got to the river thinking there was 7k in the pot and I wanted to bet 75%, but there was 10k in the pot and I bet 50%. It's not a massive deal but these just are not mistakes I'm making when I'm in the zone. I felt good all day and was very relaxed and confident, but 3 times I did something like this that afterwards felt very out of character for me. In any case, he folds and I win the pot, but these are things I really hate getting wrong. There are also arguments to be made that bluffing this river isn't great, but I thought making counterfeited pairs fold (rather than getting bluffed by them myself), and putting K high and Jx in an annoying spot made sense. Idk if half pot really pressures Jx as much as I'd like it to, hence wanting to at least use that 75% size.

Again at 300/500 I defend A3o vs btn, xc AJ2ssh, xc 8h turn, and go xx on the Qs river before losing to A9.

I defend K7 vs UTG, flop 873dds goes xx. Turn 9s and I xc 2k, river 7x and he bets 3.5k into 7k. I was pretty sure I was going to decide whether to call or raise based on the size of his bet. This was probably the only rec at the table and I'd seen him do a few funky things so far, but nothing *way* out of line. When he uses this half pot sizing I don't think it's too much of a leap to think he'll have some 9x and *possibly* overpairs, though those probably just bet flop. The thing that led me to want to raise was thinking about what he could actually have for value. I'd imagine JT bets the flop and there should only be 4 of those. I'd think 88, 33, 99 all bet flop? It feels like there's so little that beats us. I don't think we get paid often but I think we are up against a better hand even less often. I raise to 10k.

HJ opens to 1300 at 300/600 and I have J9s in the CO with 25k. Doesn't feel like a hand I should fold, doesn't feel strong enough to call. Whenever those two things are true I often put the hand into the 3b category, but I was unsure with this one. I decide to go for it and make it 3900 and it gets through. Those pick ups get more and more important as your stack gets shallower. Looking at this GTOWiz preflop chart it looks like it 3b's J9s 44% of the time off 40bb with Q9s being close to a pure 3b and Q8s being close to a pure fold, so I think I was pretty close with my thinking here.

I open JJ in the HJ and as became a pattern, everyone behind called. If I had to estimate I'd say the player on my left called 7 of my 9 opens after sitting down halfway through the day. The two players on his left were happy to squeeze, but sometimes just put in the call. In any case, it was pretty rare they'd both fold after he flatted. I decided I'd open slightly tighter ranges to combat this since there isn't anything else I can really do about this guy calling all my opens. I guess 4b'ing light would become an option but I'm not a huge fan of trying to fight fire with fire with a lot of these guys. Sometimes it's necessary but a lot of the time they're looking for that ego war and trying to be *more* aggressive than the aggressive guy is not going to work.

We go 5 ways to the KK5r flop and it checks to the guy on my left who bets 2700 into 7600. It folds back to me and I decide to peel one. Betting in a 5 way hand is very strong but I don't think I simply have to give him credit for a K already. I kind of expect him to shut down if he doesn't have one based on how he's played. Sure enough we check down the Ax turn and the 6x river and he mucks when I show, claiming 99. Really important 14k pot for me there to get the stack back in the 35k range.

I open to 1800 with A9cc in the LJ, my friend on my left is of course in there, and his friend on his left is as well. 3 ways to the TT5cc flop and it checks to the CO who bets 2300. I like xr'ing here and shoving most turns. I think this guy is stabbing unbelievably wide and I get the impression he's going to float weaker hands potentially more than he should. I make it 7200, HJ folds, CO calls, turn Jx and I shove 18.9k.

Mistake #2 happens on this hand. I defend 75hh vs UTG, our friendly rec player. Flop comes J96hh and we both check. Turn is an off suit Q and I bet 4k into 6k which he calls. River is an off suit 9 and there's 14k in the pot and I have 25k back. My thoughts and instincts in game: "This guy isn't gonna check flop and call turn to fold river. You don't make your money by bluffing fish. This hand has to be one of the best bluff candidates but this guy isn't folding. Betting 10k here and getting snapped by KQ is gonna feel really dumb, especially after you've seen him check JT on 873. He might have some AK or AT but I just feel like he's gonna have a pair here and never fold." As I'm thinking all this I notice this guy has turned his head to stare directly at me while I think. "Well now I DO kinda wanna bluff, I feel like he's trying to intimidate me into checking." And then I check anyway! He snap checks back, I say 7 high, he says "7 high??" and turns over AT and laughs and tells me he would've folded if I bet anything.

This is just pretty inexcusable from me. I felt I should bluff in theory. A live read made me think I should bluff. His tendency to skip c-bet when a lot of fish blindly c-bet everything makes it more likely he can have a hand that folds now. And somehow I talked myself out of it. There was some weird gut feeling I had that this bluff was not going to get through, but it wasn't grounded in any sort of logic or observation. It was just a random feeling. Those are the feelings that have to be overridden when you're playing live poker. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference between those and legitimate feelings, like how I felt confident he didn't have a strong hand when he turned to stare at me. It's tough to differentiate sometimes. But this time I had so many reasons to bluff and I didn't. It's funny because it had nothing to do with the buy in size or the toughness of the table or anything like that. It was just a dumb mistake.

The Israeli player opens UTG1 to 2500 at 600/1200 and I defend K8o off 30k. Flop comes J22hhd and he bets 1500. There is 6800 in the pot so this is a very small sizing. I think we need to continue pretty damn wide here given there are no draws and very few pairs to defend, outside the obvious flush draw. I decide to continue since I have the Kh and call. I recheck my cards as I always do as the turn is dealt and see that I actually have Ks8h. Mistake #3! This hand probably should just fold to the flop bet since Kh8s is already kinda questionable. Again, I played over 5 hours today so if my 2nd or 3rd biggest mistake is thinking I have Ks8h when I have Kh8s (and realizing it before getting too deep in the hand), then there are worse mistakes to be made. But these are the kinds of things I pride myself on being sharp with for many hours at a time. Maybe it's just about shaking the rust off since I haven't played live since last WSOP. Playing 9 and 10 handed turbo-ish events saw me getting way way fewer hands in with deeper stack depths than I did in just this 5k alone. So I was in a lot of pots and I guess I should expect to make some mistakes due to that. Still feels kinda bad though.

Anyway, board is J22hhd, I've just xc'ed flop, and turn comes Kd. I'm pretty resigned to calling down for my stack now against this player. I'd expect him barrel with so many hands. AQ, AT, QT, diamonds, hearts, idk maybe Q9 and T9, maybe random air, who knows. I check, he bets 5500 into 9800 and I call. River is the Td and he shoves for my last 20k. Bleh. This is not a good card. AQ gets there, diamonds get there, AT and QT might decide they have enough showdown value and check. The spot sucks. But I think I'm going to have enough Jx and AT and QT get to this spot that most Kx is still gonna be in the call category against a capable player. I put this in the sim and it suggested folding all but the Kh8x combos of K8o, with some calling flop and some raising flop. When you do have Kh8x you just call down (although it was shoving a decent amount over the turn bet lol kinda sick). So thinking I had Kh8x when I called flop I think I played the hand fine. I call and get shown a pretty thin, but probably good shove, of KQ, ending my tournament.

Overall I think I did fine in this MTT. I'm disappointed by the mistakes but we were dealt a lot of hands over that 5+ hours and the only one I'm really kicking myself over is missing the bluff with the 75. Otherwise I think I was in there and battling and got a tough table draw and did what I could with it. I wish I could've done more with it, especially when people had action, but that's how poker goes. I'm trying to stay positive and focus on the fact that I've still got 13 days out here to try to make something happen. It's frustrating how these prelims have gone the last few series but when you look at how other people are doing you realize that plenty of people are also going through this. I don't like using that as a copout since I always want to find a way to win regardless of the circumstances, but there's not a lot to be done sometimes! The goal for this trip is to simply not give up and keep registering the next event and I'll keep that going tomorrow!

I fired 1 bullet each of the $500 online bracelet and the $1k online bracelet. Max late regged the $500, won a flip to double then lost AA to 55 to bust. Regged the 1k, won KQ vs QT and AK for 60k at 800/1600, then ran a pretty big bluff to get to 85k. SB limps at 1k/2k, I 7k 5d5s he calls. Flop Q94dd he x I b 1/3 he c. Turn Kd he checks I b 1/2 he calls. River Ax he checks and I'm struggling to think of what I can bluff with here. J8/T8? Do I iso those pre? I wasn't even convinced I should iso 55; not sure what my worst pair should be but I know I'd check 33 and 22 so this is the lowest. Prob wouldn't have kept betting turn with it if it didn't have a diamond. I shove and he takes his time before folding. A few hands later SpaceyFCB opens to 4k at 1k/2k off 28k in mp. I go 9200 on btn with QQ, SB makes it 26k covering my 80k, spacey folds, back on me. I think I just have a shove?? It's easy to start getting in your head when things aren't going well, trying to find a way to not go broke to KK+ or to maneuver your way around this spot. I go with the jam and bust to AA. I decide not to re-enter with Kenny and Chance and a few other regs at my table. I'll fight on tomorrow.

Daily Results

Time Working -- 6:45
Buy Ins: $4500 (only counting the 3k I put into the 5k here)
Cashes: $0

Overall Results

Time Working -- 33:15
Buy Ins: $9499
Cashes: $0