Deposited $110; after a good session, BR is around $160 now. Feeling good about my game, and the direction I'm headed in. Worked on plugging some of my bigger leaks before I made the jump back to nl10z, and I think my strategy is a lot more solid now. Looking forward to seeing how much I can progress in 2020.

BR builder:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $13.48
SB: $12.72
BB: $10.00
UTG: $3.91
MP: $6.14
CO: $6.49

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, fold, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.55, 2 players) T 2 Q
BB bets $9.75 and is all-in, Hero calls $9.75

Turn: ($20.05, 2 players) 6

River: ($20.05, 2 players) A

BB cashed out $3.42 for a fee of $0.03

Villain played really bad there.

FutureInsights: That's why I called it a bankroll builder lol.

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How not to play aces:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.00
SB: $15.73
Hero (BB): $11.85
UTG: $10.35
MP: $15.21
CO: $5.21

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 5 9

fold, fold, CO calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25, 2 players) 7 6 8
Hero bets $0.28, CO raises to $1.10, Hero raises to $9.52, CO calls $4.01 and is all-in

Turn: ($10.47, 2 players) T

River: ($10.47, 2 players) K

CO cashed out $0.82 for a fee of $0.01

That cash out understandable.

I gotta say, before the last week or so, I would have been scared to play when a BI represented a big portion of my BR. Which would have lead to me playing bad, and moving down and/or taking a break from playing for awhile. When my BR dwindled down to $13, I took the chance to keep playing and trying to turn things around. And I think that decision has immensely improved my mental game. Just knowing that I can play well and grow my BR from so few BIs.

Played nl10z with 3-4 BIs in the BR, and then deposited $110 when BR got to $20 (as a result of bad luck). Ran that up to $250, and now taking a shot at nl25z. And the biggest thing is that I've been playing fairly solid (ie. sticking to the game plan) throughout, except for a small stretch at nl2z after that nice stretch at the end of last week. Even though my shot-taking has been extremely aggressive, I haven't felt uncomfortable at all. I've had a confidence that I can do this.

Week 3 (Jan 19-25):

nl2z: (This is where I didn't play great, as a result of winner's tilt from digging out of that hole. But remedied that, and played solid after this point.)


nl10z:


nl25z:


Current online BR: $280 (Started at $144 -- Added my deposit to the starting BR)
Current live BR: $0 (Started at $400)

your 25nl is a bit swingy, I would tweak some ranges and strategies there.

Thanks FutureInsights, it is a bit swingy I suppose, but it’s also only 700 hands. Swingy graphs over such tiny samples aren’t anything new for me lol. They tend to smooth out when the samples get much larger and these small swings become less meaningful. I think as long as the win rate stays decent, I’m good. I don’t think now’s the time to try and tweak anything. I’m confident in my strategies, and I’m winning at a nice pace so far. I think I just gotta run with it and see how it goes longer term.

Summary for January:

Month went ok. Off to a decent start for the year. Looks like I may have finally made the jump to nl10z successfully. Volume-wise, not a great month, but there was so much more to this month than volume. It was more about improving my biggest leaks, and gaining confidence that I can beat both nl10z and nl25z. My small shot at nl25z didn't last long, but that was mostly due to running bad.

For February, the plan (which is always subject to change lol) is to grind nl10z for most/all of the month. Have some real-life things I need to purchase within the next few months, and would like to make enough this month to withdraw for that. Then, I can focus back on building the BR more and moving up to nl25z.



nl2z:


nl10z:


nl25z:

Mid-month update: Things fell apart results-wise. Went on a decently big downswing, and BR went from probably somewhere around $320 down to $200. It was one of those runs where it felt like I couldn't do anything right. So I just took some time to look over things.

One thing I discovered was I went from playing too tight to too loose. Many of the hands in the bottom portion of my ranges were losing money. And also, I couldn't defend properly against aggression. By playing looser, I would either fold too much to aggression, or call a weak range and lose too much money.

Spent some more time working on my game, tightening things up a bit. Lost some time the last 2 weeks cause the time I wasn't working on my game, I was doing other stuff. Didn't want to play until I was ready to resume. Spent a little time most days studying, and am now ready to get back into it again.

I'm opening tighter ranges, except from the SB. And I'm using a 4bb RFI size from all positions. Before, I was folding probably 70% or so to 3Bets. Now, I'm probably defending 70%. Also, gonna be calling a lot more out of the BB, since I don't think I'm defending enough currently. I have a real focus on more balanced play now, cause I'm gonna spend some time trying to get out of the micros quickly.

Gonna try and see how quickly I can get to nl100z. I'm gonna go insanely aggressive again for awhile (with respect to shot-taking). I have $200, which I'll treat as 100 BIs for nl2z. Above that, I'll go crazy and take 1/2 BI shots until I reach nl100z. The hope is to have one run where I can make it to the nl100z shot, win a few BIs there, and not have to look back.

------

A couple hands from today (will try to post more hands here and there -- if I feel like it lol)

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $2.11
Hero (SB): $2.09
BB: $7.05
UTG: $1.30
MP: $2.04
CO: $2.00

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A A

UTG raises to $0.04, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.16, fold, UTG calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.34, 2 players) 7 J 8
Hero bets $0.22, UTG raises to $1.14 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.92

Turn: ($2.62, 2 players) 5

River: ($2.62, 2 players) 2

UTG cashed out $2.26 for a fee of $0.02



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PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $2.06
SB: $7.82
BB: $4.93
UTG: $2.38
MP: $1.58
Hero (CO): $2.15

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J K

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, BTN raises to $0.24, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.51, 2 players) 9 2 3
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($1.01, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($1.01, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.57 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.57

Why are we back to 2nl? I'd move up to 5nl real soon.

ETA: I don't have 100 bis for 25nl, still play though. However, the max Zone (Zoom type) tables on ignition for a single stake is two.

Right now, I'm treating the $200 as a "fail-safe" to fall back on when my aggressive shots fail. That way, I'm always safely rolled, and my BR is never at risk.

I'm "grinding" nl2z until I hit $205, then I take a 0.5 BI shot at nl5z. "Grind" there until I hit $210, then take a 0.5 BI shot at nl10z. "Grind" there until I hit $225, then take a 0.5 BI shot at nl25z. And so on until I hit $300 and take a 0.5 BI shot at nl100z, where I hope to stay (when my shot-taking finally -- hopefully -- hits a good run).

So even though I'm still playing some nl2z, it's not for very long until I move back up again.

EDIT: Should also mention I plan on spending an hour each day doing off-the-table work.

lul

This way you will be a 1knl reg in no time.

Seriously though, two questions:

1. What makes you think this is good for mental game?
2. Does being 3BI rolled for 100z mean you have an edge at 100z?

You can't just work like crazy to move up an down in stakes and finally reach 300$, and then take an uneven flip on being back at 2nlz again.

Who is your favorite philosopher?

Hey Philosopher, I´m back following your thread lol.


Since I´m a proven non-hater (I hope ), I can be 100% honest right?

Your main leak seems to be your impatience. You want to move up too quickly, even though everytime you did from what I remember, you failed. You keep adjusting (and worse, doing big adjustments, like moving from loose to tight, adjusting RFI sizes etc), over such small sample sizes (I bet it´s usually way less than 100k hands, when even 100k is not big enough).

It´s mental game, and you seem to be completely unaware of it.

I´m 110% into adjusting (hopefully always improving), but it has to be slow and steady and only one or two variables when you do, otherwise you´ll never know which adjustments work and which don´t work and which one worked due to pure luck. You play zoom and is capable of putting a ton of volume. Don´t be too lazy to put big volume when testing the changes you make.

Cheers

Shipnickle: Firstly, I'm not saying it's good for my mental game lol. My mental game is fine so far. But if I find it starts getting too tough mentally, I'll change back to a less aggressive approach until my mindset is better. Secondly, With $300, I'll still only have 0.5 BIs for nl100z. And will be hoping to grow that.

And I'm not saying I have an edge at nl100z. I've watched some zoom tables of nl100z, and I think there's a chance I may be able to hold my own there, especially with more work done on my game along the way. Having tightened up more, I think there's a better chance I can be a winner. I mean, if Rapidash can win... (hahaha sorry Rapidash, I couldn't resist ) Oh, and my favourite philosopher is myself.

Btw, with 2bb/100 winrate and standard deviation of 80, each shot has a 3% chance of success with a 0.5 BI bankroll. So I'm not under any delusion that it'll be easy. But it gives me the chance to have success more quickly.

Fazendeiro: I don't know if it's impatience (this time anyway lol). I've read a lot about how we should try and get out of the micros ASAP because of the absurd rake. So I'm just trying the extreme approach and seeing how it goes. I don't think it'll be any slower than a more conservative approach, but has the chance to be quicker.

I should set my sights higher than nl10z anyway. nl100z is a nice goal (for now), where I could make decent side money and not worry about high rake. So if I'm setting my sights there, why not try and make a plan where I can try and get there sooner? You may call it impatience, but honestly, I do have the time and patience right now to take it slower. I just think if I could get there quicker without any additional risk, why is it better to take it slower? Except for the mindset of course. If I notice that deteriorating, I'll try and slow it down for a bit.

You're right about over-adjusting, or adjusting too quickly after bad stretches. I should give my strategy(s) more of a chance to see how they work. I'll try to keep the current ranges/strategy for at least a 100k hand sample, even if things appear to be going south. Will obviously still constantly be working on improving the strategy and refining it in the spots I haven't really worked on yet.

And yeah, you're a proven non-hater lol. Be as honest as you'd like hahaha.

And also, another fun hand:

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $5.00
SB: $5.48
Hero (BB): $5.07
UTG: $15.50
MP: $4.49
CO: $6.33

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has T T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.12, fold, Hero raises to $0.48, BTN raises to $1.46, Hero calls $0.98

Flop: ($2.94, 2 players) 9 K 8
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.54 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.54

Turn: ($10.02, 2 players) Q

River: ($10.02, 2 players) 4

Okay. So you buy in for 50bb's? Stacks go in quite often.

Sorry shipnickle, I think you misunderstood what I meant. I just meant I'd move back down if I had lost half a BI. I'd still be playing at 100 bb. And there's still a chance I could lose 1 BI.

But, for example, with $300 playing nl200z, I could lose 1 BI and still have $200 for nl2z. Even if I got down to $255 and lost a BI, I'd still have $155 for nl2z, which would be ok. But if I let myself go down to, say, $205 and then lost a BI, then I'd be down to 50 BIs at nl2z. Which still is plenty, but doesn't give me the same kind of cushion. So that's the idea behind the 0.5 BI shots. To try and avoid going too far below $200 at any time. I like having the 100 BIs at the lowest level to keep things more comfortable.

Okay. I hope it works out for you.

What are the most important things you've been working on lately? Do you still use your own solver, or is it still in development?

GL!

nl2 player triing to shot nl100 is never a good idea, regardless of 0.5bi shots, 0.83bi shots or 1 bi shots.

This is a shove pre man, would not have a flatting range here except for AA. OOP, vulnerable hand, rake, terrible price to call. Just ship

Sorry for the late replies.

Shipnickle: Been working on tighter RFI ranges with the 4bb sizing. And better defense ranges vs 3bets. Used my own "solver" for that. I guess you could say it's still in development. If I have something I want to work out, or "solve", then I just try and program what I need at the time. I'll probably do that again for different things from time to time. But haven't done any programming during the past week. Also tightened up my 3bet range a bit, but didn't do any solver work or anything for that.

Other thing I did was change my postflop play to try and have a more balanced attack. So, trying to have some stronger hands in all my checking ranges, and not betting the more marginal value hands as much. Wasn't bluffing much at first, but started adding in more postflop bluffs in areas where I found opponents weren't calling enough.

enzet: Possibly, but you won't know how you do if you don't try. And I'm not set in stone yet if I plan to stay at nl100z right away. I'm also thinking of rapidly moving up like that, but then starting again at nl5z when I reach $500 (100 bb). Then doing the same thing, but without playing at nl2z, until I reach $1000. Then doing the same thing with nl10z as my "base". And so on. So, after each such "step", it makes it easier and quicker to reach those nl100z shots. Will play it as I go, and see how I feel.

291: Thanks, I haven't done the theoretical work on that. You could be right, but my thoughts were it's probably close either way. By 5betting, I'm just folding out worse hands and getting better ones (or those with similar equity) to call, pretty much.

If we have a terrible price to call, aren't you insinuating that he's doing this with a stronger range? And so wouldn't jamming be even worse? And I don't think vulnerability is as strong a concern when he's putting in ~30% of his stack preflop. Again, I'm not sure what the proper play is here, but I'm not convinced shoving pre is best. Rake might be a factor also like you said.

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And just cause I haven't posted any hands in a while, here's one. I haven't been marking any hands lately (haven't been thinking about it while playing), but I did remember to mark one hand during my last session.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $0.53
SB: $2.34
BB: $3.58
UTG: $1.94
Hero (MP): $2.22
CO: $2.71

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A J

fold, Hero raises to $0.08, CO calls $0.08, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.19, 2 players) 3 J A
Hero bets $0.17, CO calls $0.17

Turn: ($0.53, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, CO bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

River: ($1.83, 2 players) K
Hero checks, CO bets $1.81 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.32 and is all-in

Just realize, they don't play like that at 100nl

I'd go for 25nl, 100k hands, then 50nl. 50nl is giving many players a nice side income.

Hey, mate. How are you?

I'll give you suggestions that maybe you don't like. Don't get me wrong, all right? My intention here is to help you.

So, let's understand together first where exacly you are with your skill right now.

If you have a 10bb/100 winrate at nl2z (standard/normal winrate for this limit. A lot of players have this winrate at nl2z and are still not able to beat nl5z, for example), you would not have a -2bb/100 winrate (EV adjusted) after 38.000 hands.

Here are the numbers:

- 70% confidence interval -> [5.90 BB/100, 14.10 BB/100]
- 95% confidence interval -> [1.79 BB/100, 18.21 BB/100]
- Probability of loss after 38000 hands -> 0.7411%

So, if you're a winner player at nl2z, you probably have a smaller winrate than that. For example, I simulated a 6bb/100 winrate for you, and the numbers are:

- 70% confidence interval -> [1.90 BB/100, 10.10 BB/100]
- 95% confidence interval -> [-2.21 BB/100, 14.21 BB/100]
- Probability of loss after 38000 hands -> 7.1868%

Therefore, even considering you have a 6bb/100 winrate at nl2z, you'd still have to run very badly in order to have a -2bb/100 over 38.500 hands. You'd have to run on the "bottom" of the normal curve.

But all right, let's consider that you went through a really big downswing and in fact your winrate is in the middle of these two scenarios. Let's assume, therefore, that your winrate at nl2z is 8bb/100 (more optimistic scenario).

So, even if this best optimistic scenario is true and you have a 8bb/100 at nl2z, on the long run, you still will not crush nl5z (probably won't even win there, to be quite honest), and definitely will not win at nl25z, nl50z and nl100z.

Again: don't get me wrong, mate. But, please, don't fool your self: nl50z and nl100z (for example) are extremely competitive limits, and any player capable of beating them is capable to beat the previous limits with great ease and with a bigger winrate.

If you're capable to have a 8bb/100 at nl2z, you'll probably have something around 1bb/100 at nl5z and you'll be a losing player at nl25z or above.

If you're capable to beat nl50z or nl100z, you'd destroy nl2z/nl5z/nl10z, mate. At nl2z, you'd have something around 15bb-20bb/100. In that case (considering a 15 bb/100), your "Probability of loss after 38000 hands" would be 0.0129%.

I'm sorry, my intention is not to make you sad or disturb you. My intention is to help you. In poker there are hundreds and hundreds of cases of players who think they can beat higher limits without first beat lower limits (very basic thing, actually). These people always lose everything or get into debt in the end.

Be careful.

Best regards.

On the AJo hand, bet smaller otf (1/2x, 2/3x max), keep firing on that turn, then overbet shove river. Don’t really like your line, even if I had reads.