Ok imagine you’re in a great mood, just started a session, some guys decided to 4bet or 3betOOP with hands like QTs 98s and you call both of the time they ended up turning two pair or rivering a gutshot and got river shoved, then you go preflop allin with KK vs AA and AK vs 66 lose both time AA vs JJ he flops a set -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 then a fish folds top two pair to a shove he has only 60BB behind and this happens during first 1k hands where not much positivity happened except this because its Rush and pool folds most of the time

Your mood no longer in good shape right?

Somehow you manage to make come back slowly and gradually during next 1k hands, now you have 2k hands played when you flop a set bet 75% pot flop and villain calls with air, he calls turn overbet with gutshot and when you think hell no way he has a straight you shove the river ending up losing because the guy miraculously rivered a straight then a guy calls 11BB OOP3bet with JTs flopping a flush vs KK, right after you go preflop all in AK vs JJ run it twice and lose both of the time, someone calls OOP 3bet you make pair on flop with AQ and villain calls cbet turn brings him a set and this happens during next 500 hands -100 -100 -100 -100

Now tell me if this isn’t variance, how unfair things can get?

Maybe you’re right its not variance, just maybe rigged system by AI coded into GG system which makes sure those weak guys never go broke and they keep playing all the time

But i don’t really want long discussions about subjects like this, i posted it, happened what happened, tomorrow is better day lets move on

so lets say tomorrow ur the guy having AA vs AK , KK vs QQ, etc. all those pre-flop hands going ur way and you win 10 buy-ins , you will be super happy

day after tomorrow its the opposite again you will be super sad / tilted etc.

its rare to not be affected at all but its really important area to work on to not care about the result which u mostly can not really influence otherwise ur mood and life is just ur poker swings, lol which is not a very good place in long term

the way to work on it is u open up ur mind and face the uncomfortable truth step by step like asking questions such as is this really worth it to let it ruin my day that the fish rivered quads? etc.

then slowly u will have more acceptance

YOU NEED TO BE A ROBOT DUDE.

Also cold 4ball the queens.

Considering how wonderful day was yesterday today's start promises a lot, another great 2 pair fold

Bet bet shove line seems not working in SRP, ill think what line would be better maybe bet bet 150% pot or something like that

lets go

Got called one time. Doesnt work anymore.

Two times

I noticed one thing, when flush draw is completed and they show any activity, they bet or raise, whatever, they always have flush like 99% of times at these limits

vs fish

finally something easy and positive

150% works

try again mf

I’m still thinking about variance and poker, variance can be bigger factor than i may think

Besides poker I’ve played few other games like Chess, League of Legends, Hearthstone etc top players who were always high on the leaderboards they had one thing in common, they all were consistent with their game, less risky plays, more safe and guaranteed paths, they were playing meta game consistently, more talented guys who scored lower on the leaderboards they were consistently taking more risky paths

I’m lucky i played many competitive games so i can now understand how important is to be consistent it applies to poker too

Today even tho i played really good, won a lot of big hands in the end i ended up losing the session, 2 times i bluff shoved river, even tho it was +EV shove villain called me with weak hand both times, two times i went allin pre with AK, one time vs AA and one time vs QQ lost both too

Now I’m thinking of paths to less variance gameplan, i know as i move up stakes there will be even more and more variance because it’s just like that, as regs get better they will put me in tougher spots, they will force me to bluff catch their river shoves etc

To be in a spot where pot is too big and you either have to bluff shove or bluff catch, this itself is high variance spot, it’s not so good for consistency imo also all preflop coinflips which leads to run into AA-KK time to time

NHs!

Be careful with coaches btw. Most are lazy and rely on the fact they might be winning at games to get people to pay them.

Just because you can win at the games, doesn't make you a good coach. Coaches should have a method of teaching to make their players better. Recording a session and re-watching it together is a **** way of coaching.

would i be to watch any nl50/100 or below players game for 30mins on video i could write on a notepad a gathering of leaks and how to work on them its like 1hr job ive done it before.

u dont need a detailed database review or whatever for that level when the leaks of why u break-even or cant win are very obvious (just not obvious to you).

this guys biggest problem is he plays poker with a style that isnt consistently based on winning strat but rather full self-learned / improvised and moving up stakes u need like fundament based game plans which is not something a notepad of pointing ur current leaks can give to you u need like a cfp / long term coaching deal bcz to get those right it is 40+ hrs of coaching or someone really dedicating to teach u stuff personally as a short cut maybe can be done in 10 hrs if willing to learn it .

watching recorded session is exact same but u can ask stuff in real time (which mostly just derails and is worse than receiving a notepad file pointing leaks) but both of which are things that dont really benefit that much ... Someone who really benefits of that kind of coaching is a dude who is self orientating like watches coaching videos , does simulate poker, calculates stuff alone , etc. so he could grasp together on like how to play solid + someone would point his leaks = he wouldn't necessarily need a long term coaching setup but to like most others it is really the only form of coaching that i believe in having impact..

the coaching of game plans mentioned should be like some dude lectures u or u watch some lecture like : topic of today 4-b pots Out of position then it goes 3hrs

next day 3b pots etc. because u dont have real game-plan on those which covers like all boards etc. teaching u how to play winning strategies , !

these days its less effective as players are playing more generic and u could just jump to some nl100 pool and try catch up what they are doing however on apps the average dude is kinda exactly playing like this he learned poker from watching youtube and it really shows.

I totally agree, fundamentals should be taken more seriously, my game plan should be based on solid fundamentals but sometimes it’s hard to leave ego aside and do what is right anyway i believe im on a tight path and slowly going to the destination

Here todays hand and thought process behind it

I bet big on flop villain calls, i check turn, villain checks behind, now i know villain thinks maybe i was on a flush draw, river brings no flush of hearts

I think in that time in villains mind only way i can win is to bet big so im overbetting the river by following what i believe villain is thinking and im getting paid

In this second hand i again break the fundamentals by donking the turn

My thought process was:

I'm OOP so i want to take less variance path, by donking turn i prevent villain to go crazy with his bluffs and also charge a little for his flush draw

I check the river because i don't want him to raise-bluff my value bet, i prefer him to bluff his missed draws

But after this hand was finished i felt little sadness because i realized if this was higher stakes and if villain was a bit tougher, my donk bet prolly would get raised and he would bet big on the river too

I would've had to make big variance decision against my will if this hand happened in the higher limits, lets say if i havent donked prolly he would still make big cbets on turn and river still outcome would've been the same: big variance decision for me

Now I'm thinking generally playing out of position is high variance path, i should limit hands i play OOP in general but when i play i need strategy lines that will be aimed to reduce variance in general

second hand makes zero sense at all. donking isn’t about “high-variance path” “low-variance path”, it’s about range interaction. you need a range or nut advantage to start donking cards (e.g. Q977 check bet call flop - IP doesn’t cbet much 9x but you call all your 9x - now you have trips advantage)

you have zero advantage on this runout. you can’t donk. this line cost you at least 8bb in value as he’s supposed to pot turn, and no one raises donks and proves enough.

if you’re hyper-concerned about variance you might need to drop stakes to a level you’re comfortable playing financially

Dude just stop donkbetting wtf.

I’m thinking of a line to replace donking but when i imagine lets say our opponent is tough reg, if i checked the turn, what if he bets full pot, i call, villain overbets the river or jams, what i do? all i have is a single pair, i have to bluff catch, this spot by itself will be high variance in the long term