Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
I didnt think he'd call a $50 utg raise preflop then a 3bet HU (when utg wasnt very deep either) with something that hit the flop except for maaybe 99.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
If I understand what you are getting at, then the flaw you are pointing out is that if he's likely to setmine with 99 then he's also likely to do it with 55/66, right?
No. Listen to what you are saying. You are saying that once you 3bet pre, then bet 70% of pot otf, well he won't have much except the nuts and strong draws when he c/rai with zero fe. And I'd have to agree with you.
You should be terrified when the non preflop aggressor suddenly becomes aggressive in a 3bet pot...as villains play much more straightforward in them.
Also realize that draws become significantly less likely in 3bet pots. Basically he's never taking this line with TT-QQ. So you are up against sets, 78s, and likely UTG flat + 3bet flat draw combos, which would be like A
Q
, Q
J
, J
T
I think the biggest error in this HH is your flop sizing which is huge and screams I HAVE AA/KK AND IM NEVER FOLDING. Even QQ/JJ have an easy fold at this point so you fold out all dominated hard equity hands and get raped by all nuts/combo draws.
I think with checking back or gay betting would be far superior. Like if I bet $190 or $210 I'd be much happier getting it in vs. a c/r. Because vs a smaller continuation bet villains c/r frequency is larger. Put another way, villain is more likely to c/r 77 here as a bluff when we bet $190. When we bet $380 we greatly reduce their c/r bluff frequency. When I bet $380 and get c/r I know that if I get it in I'm praying to see exactly Q
J
. And praying to be at best 60% is usually bad.
$190 would also be much easier to swallow for TT-QQ which is what we should be targeting value from UTG's range.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
I dont think i can ever get away on that board with not too much behind, I didnt have the As so the nut flush draw was def out there.
Balugawhale wrote some really good material on the logic of getting overpairs AI on super wet boards because "lol all the draws"