Quote:
Originally Posted by verneer
For example, here is a hand I played this morning:
UTG + 1 is playing 34/16 over 32 hands. BTN is playing 13/7 over 57 hands.
Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
Hero (CO): $10.00
BTN: $13.54
SB: $10.17
BB: $11.87
UTG: $23.76
UTG+1: $12.83
UTG+2: $4.12
MP1: $4.05
MP2: $6.40
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with K K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BTN calls $0.90, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.70
Flop: ($2.85) 5 7 Q (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1, BTN calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1
So what range of hands will they have preflop to continue given my 3-bet? How will those hands play the flop (there is a fair bit of guessing involved - who will you be able to narrow down more accurately?).
Given the preflop and flop action, How many turn cards are bad for you? What's the worst possible card that can come? Why is that? Which ones are great? What, if anything, will make you fold your hand on the turn?
Obviously the looser passive player has a much wider range here, given that he has a much higher VPIP and is presumably calling a decent amount of 3bets. The tight player cold-calling a 3bet looks fairly strong, although he may well be setmining assuming he is getting good implied odds as he will probably expect the fish to come along a lot of the time. I'd say his range is 22-QQ almost always, maybe some AK/AQ in there as well? He may decide to slowplay AA as well, although probably not.
On the flop, you obviously bet for value. I'm curious as to your betsize - you bet just over 1/3 pot on a drawy board with an overpair - why is that?
I think the smaller betsize probably widens their flop calling range. The looser player will probably peel with a very wide range - any pair, any draw, maybe even some backdoor draws. The tighter player would probably flat with AQ, and I would expect him to peel with, say, 99-JJ. Despite the drawy board he would be fairly likely to flat with sets as well, to encourage the UTG+1 to come along.
Bad turn cards: any Q would help a decent portion of villains' ranges. Any heart would be bad as you're either now behind or unlikely to get paid off. I would be a little wary on any 9, T or J as the button may have turned a set. Also obviously any A, for the same reasons as hearts. I'd say the Ah is probably the worst card in the deck for you. Again, this is a fair portion of the deck, which is why I'm curious as to your reasons for betting so small on the flop.
Great turn cards: K (ldo), offsuit 2-4, maybe a club that might give someone a backdoor draw and make them call another turn bet? An 8 or 9 is probably a safe card, as even though it completes the straight I don't really expect either player to have 64 or 86 very often at all.
On a safe turn card I would probably bet-fold. If either player ships over our turn bet we may well be in bad shape, as I would never expect either player to play Qx or a draw that way.
How was that?
Also, in terms of charities (mucho respect for doing that btw) you should DEFINITELY look at
Kiva.
Quote:
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GL this year Verneer.