Decisions on Moving Up, Initial Buy-In
I often get this question:
Quote:
What type of bankroll do I need to move up? 20 BI's for then next level?
It's not that easy. Let me give you guys some insight into my own thought process for navigating through the different levels. Some things I consider:
1. Current Bankroll
2. Momentum/Confidence
3. Winrate, sample size, and EV in my recent play
4. Initial Buy-In
5. Reasons for wanting to move
Due to a nice run of cards, some solid play, and a healthy infusion of rakeback, I'm rapidly approaching the $1,000 mark:
Today I was playing pretty meh and break-even until I won three of the biggest pots I've played to date, including one in which I won $46 (184 BB's) and was $83 in all:
Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
View hand 1120816
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
SB: $33.84
BB: $25.76
Hero (UTG): $53.75
UTG+1: $63.16
UTG+2: $15.30
MP1: $26.70
MP2: $50.16
CO: $11.01
BTN: $32.66
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 6
6
Hero raises to $0.50,
1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.50,
4 folds, SB calls $0.40,
1 fold
Flop: ($1.75) 4
6
J
(3 players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $1,
UTG+2 raises to $2,
SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2, UTG+2 calls $1
Turn: ($10.75) A
(3 players)
SB bets $6, Hero calls $6,
UTG+2 raises to $11.80 all in, SB calls $5.80, Hero calls $5.80
River: ($46.15) J
(3 players - 1 is all in)
SB checks,
Hero bets $38.45 all in, SB calls $18.54 all in
Overall progress:
I expect a few things to happen in the next two weeks:
1. I'll grind out around 100,000 - 120,000 hands for the month.
2. I'll clear my $450 Iron Man EOTY bonus.
3. I'll get between $200 - $300 in rakeback by the end of the month.
So, I'll have to start making some decisions about taking shots at 50NL sooner rather than later. For now, I am doing well and enjoying the 25NL games. I'm going to switch from buying in for 50 BB's to buying in for 75 BB's and topping off when I feel good.
$970/$18.75 = 51 BI's for 25NL @ 75 BB's which gives me a huge margin of safety. If I start a downswing, I'm going to adjust my initial buy-in back to 50 BB's, but if I continue running well, I might bump it up to 100 BB's, but probably will just hit 50NL @ 50 BB's. It's the more aggressive move and it will allow me to start accumulating hands on the 50NL regs.
So - that's my current situation. I've played around 3,500 hands today already in around 3 hours and will probably put in a few evening sessions cause by God, it's Friday and the games BETTER be good.
Bottom Line: I feel confident about my game, my bankroll is healthy, my momentum is surging, and my target level is 100NL. Everything seems to point to starting to take shots at 50NL very soon.