yo Alex gl very impressive work

im guessing that is his lifetime graph for hypers, as SS doesent have him in profit this year so far.

That is MouldyOnions graph

Hi Alex!

1st of all I respect what you think and what you are trying to do, but if you think you can turn a 65k roll into a million this is the point of view from an 12 year old boy.

The Black Friday and switching to contributed killed all CG-rakebackbitches, and SNG-RBbitches are killed on lower stakes by the far to high Rake, and at higher stakes multitabling cant earn any money ( because Regs only)

I have analyzed your results at the 200 Hypers

You have played 5751 games so far (since 01.01.2013) making 947 1st + 967 2nd Places
When we do the Math this shows -43k (Rake included) So you are dropping about 7,40 USD per game (The rake is 6.48) so if you are playing with 100% RB you are dropping 0.90 per game

Your ITM = 33% and your HU statistic is negative (947:967)
You need AT LEAST 35% ITM and a positive HU in a 65:35 payoutstructure to gain money from your rakebackdeal (SNE+)

OK we can say you are downswinging atm, but you must recognize that your task is simply IMPOSSIBLE, in addition REGs wil adapt against you, so this can run really dirty for you.

In my opinion you should stop as soon as possible. If you cannot beat the rake : -EV

Well that post is a little weird on multiple accounts.

lol first post with a Dec 09 account

I'm pretty sure he'd be happy with losing something like 600k pre-rakeback if he gets that 8M VPPs, I don't know where you got the idea that he's trying to "turn a 65k roll into a million".

estimated losses with -43k in 10 days is not -600k, it is -1.600.000

And you think extrapolating his 10 day results gives you a good idea of his longterm winrate, especially when that 10 day samplesize includes some crazy 50-tabling to be the first SN?

I'm also somewhat sceptical if he can maintain this kind of volume with positive post-rakeback winrate, but we don't really know that. That's what makes this interesting to rail.

Cliffs:
-No money in poker everyone is solid
-6k games is a sufficient sample size for high stakes hypers
-OP is -EV
-tintifax2007 is a poker expert and should be respected

oddest post ever on 2+2?

I kinda understand where he is comming from.. 2007.

So...a couple questions for those in the know..or OP

The main game is 6 max $200 hyper SNGs...correct?

The goal is to get to 8x SNE and break even pre rakeback...which brings you to the $1M figure...also correct?

Obviously a total loss for the year that is a small percentage of rakeback would be acceptable...but I am talking about the overall goal here.

where in there did you think of what variance is? how are you gonna base a skillset off a relatively small sample in an extremely volatile game?

also, its roughly 210k games to get 8m vpps. by your numbers hes losing less than 200k but making a million with rakeback... go away dolt

LOL at finish dist analysis from 6k games

I really admire you and your work ethic,keep it up man! Stay focused, GL!

2005 was like the beginning of Waterloo poker, Nenad ft'ed PCA that year and he and a different Steve were starting to play the big UB NL games iirc.

pretty absurd challenge wice, good luck!

To be fair he said awice would be losing $7.4/game, which would be about $1/game MORE than rake, or ~$1.55 million pre-rakeback in 210k games.

fyp

such a beast

Somebody help handicap this so the prop betting can commence.
To reach 8x SNE +220
To reach 4x SNE -300
To show profit preRB & Reach 8x +1100

Add on..

..and good luck of course!!

ill take no profit pre RB -1500 for the max

not knockin on the guy.. just think +1100 is a bad line (he lost a ton 50 tabling to reach SN first)

Yeah +1100 would imply something like ~8.3% probability, def would need better odds than that imo.

Awice: 316k
Mouldy: 313k

Looks like they are going to be going neck and neck approaching SNE too if they keep this up! Should be pretty close to end of the month/first days of Feb at this pace!

(http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/community/leaderboard/)