Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerRon247
Where are you getting these numbers from? Only 1 combo of NFD calls turn? 2 combos of pair+draw?
Sorry, my numbers were obviously rubbish, which is why I shouldn't post from my phone in a rush! Let's try to do this properly:
Assume his 3b range includes at least ATs+, KJs+, then I guess a reasonable flop range for him flatting suited hearts pre and then continuing to the river is:
{A3, A4, A6, A7, A9*} for the nut flush (5 combos)
{KT, QJ, QT, Q9*, JT, T9*, 97*, 76*} for the straight/pair (8 combos)
The * hands are blocked by hero's holding, but I think we should count them as I assume villain is expecting to fold out sets & straights with his river jam rather than small flushes. (?)
So roughly not more than 13 combos on the flop where he continues. Some of those might raise the flop, and I'm not sure if the small flushes jam the river... so even fewer value combos that are jamming river, hence my suspicion that he needs to be very selective jamming a high-card blocker if he is to avoid over-bluffing.
Thanks for the input/corrections. Hope I've done better this time
Ian