Great software, thanks.

I just used it too for a player with a 7 bb/100 winrate, these are the results:


downswing stretches:


Over a period of 400 000 hands the results become more accurate


So over 400 000 hands there's a 70% chance for a 7bb/100 winner to end up with a result of between 5,42 and 8,58 bb/100.

OK I stand corrected.

(For the same player) this is the simulation for 1 million hands:



There's a 70% of winning between 6 and 8 bb/100
and a 95% chance of winning between 5 and 9 bb/100.

All right, point taken.

The poker variance calculator is taking into account or assume everyone is opting to take variance in all the same situations. I tell you my findings.

1) When I decided to reduce the amount of combos and all-ins preflop my variance dropped and downswings.
2) When I decided also to reduce the amount of times or situation I am in on the flop my variance and also downswings drop.
3) When I decide to do less high variance plays which don't happen often enough for me to converge to EV.

In summary what I am trying to say is over the course of 100,000 hands the person who decides to go all-in say 50 times is going to experience less variance than a person who goes all-in 100 times.

The more all-ins you do in earlier streets the higher the variance as well as the more triple barrels you pull its going to give you a higher variance game. All of this is just in my findings and yes I could be wrong but I want to also play alot of hands to see if my theory is true. I can only reflect on my current results and experience but I do know spots where I don't try to fight or make a thin value bet or thin call and it has helped me keep a consistent good increase in profits.

No doubt all of this might sacrifice the maximum EV I can make but I am ok to sacrifice 1-2 bb/100 to have less downswings.

I don't want to hijack the thread, but variance comes in different forms. There's the all-in EV aspect where you put the money in on the flop and lose to a 2 outer.

If you're ahead on the flop and the turn doesn't improve your opponent's hand then your equity increases on the turn and it's an even better spot to get the money in. Although this will be at the detriment of your opponent and they may be less likely to commit with only one card to come. The bets you make on each street have a positive / negative expectation.

You could take a lower variance approach and shove on the river when you're sure you have the best hand. But then you may only be called by a small range of hands and not get paid off.

If every time you get 100bb in pre-flop with KK only run into AA you'll be making a - EV play. But the reality is maybe it's variance and could run into worse hands which call. Ultimately, this scenario won't show on a graph.

Masq don't worry buddy, talk about variance as much as you want.




This morning my doomswitch is over.
( I don't want to call it downswing because it's the site that does this to me in this case.)
So change of plans. I'm back to 10 NL.
13 hours of work:



EZ


Do you like to get double paid?





Oh my God ! OH MY GOD !!!! IT'S SO BIG!
...





Lets gooooooooo !

Nice results, where do you usually Play?

I don't want to mention it but, I'll give you two hints:
1) I can only play with people from my own country
2) I play in euros

Good day today, I ran into a few setups, but I got a good day overall:


I actually played 16 tables for a while, I don't know why but it felt very easy. Probably because I wasn't getting too many hands and folding a lot.
I played 14 tables on average for at least 4 hours... I don't find it too hard.
I think on 16 tables I get around 1230 hands per hour, which is pretty crazy.

Here are some hands for you to enjoy:




Making moves:






Can you fold this?




YOU TRICKSTER!
The play was great, the hand dealt was ... delicious .... FOR HIM !




Making more moves?






Why not



LET'S GO BOYS !!!

Don't worry the fold is right, this guy is a tight as ... well, you know...



ALL in ? HMMMMMMMM?













.. aaaaaaaaah, when your stack is too big (I could have went all in on the turn with 100 bb).




Saturday I thought : "tomorrow I'll make at least 150 euros. At least !"




Also I wanted to get the 10 000 hands in.
I played between 14 and 15 tables mostly. In the end I ran out of tables and played the last 3 hours with an average of 8 tables.
I though I was going to crush everyone in the end (because there were less regs), but I couldn't hit enough hands unfortunatelly.

Still, a good day.




PS: Week result comming soon

What does your turn shove achieve in the JJ hand?

Did you think your opponent was fishy and would call with a TPTK hand or draw? If not, you're only going to get called by better hands and turning your hand into a bluff.

Mainly for protection, secondly : yes I might get called by worse.
Also I was up againsts 2 opponents not just one.
Third reason, no one shower enough strength for me to be worried
A forth reason is: the pot is 4 euro, one guy has half a pot behind another one has slightly more than pot, now, If I just call, the amount of hands I can get outdrawn from on the river is BIG:
Any A, K, Q, 8 (if they have just ONE overcard in their hand) , also, 7, 6 ,5 ,4 ,3 ,2 (one pair that can make 2 pair or trips, gut shots, open ended straight draws, flush draws even).
Not raising there is like setting up a trap for yourself.

Today I woke up and it was snowing (it snows very rarely here where I live), so I got out and I told my dad : I'll go for a spin
Dad:"No don't do it, don't do it"
Me:"I'm goin right now"
Dad:"OK But when you take the turn drive very slow, and drive slow in general"
Me: "Do you think I'm going for a drive right now to drive slow?! Come on"
Dad:"**** off"


I go and I basically drove like a snake
.
Drifter left to right continuously, drifted with the wheels overspinning and using the handbreak, it was great.
Anyone at one point. My car doesn't pull anymore (I think I was on ice), so I thoug: "EZ solution, just put the chains on"
I go to put the chains on the wheels for the first time while snowing, in the cold, while having to kneel, sit and lie down on the snow. After I was done , around 40 minutes later, I was freezing, wet and tired ,looooool.
I warmy suggest practicing putting the chains on when its hot so you get good at it.
Anyway after that it was smooth sailing, I went home while having a top knotch grip on the road even on 3/4 inches of snow.

Last weeks result:



+ 150 euros (free Spin and go ticket win)
+ 65 bonuses
(I have move bonuses but I didn't receive them yet, long story. I'll just add them when I get them)

Weeks total:



Well, I should have had a better solution when I went on the downswing.
From now on I'll just play on other sites a lot more.
I could get 70 000 hands in a week EZ.
It's all good, I got the solution now.



Next week's goal:

Make 1700 euros.



LETS GO !!!

New goal:
Make 2000 euros
I'll try to play 70 000 hands with a winrate of 28.5 bb/100

LETS DO IT !!!

Just to come back on this hand. You have JJ which means you obviously block QJ/J8/Jx hands. It doesn't make it impossible your opponent have these holdings, but does make it slightly less probable they are holding those those drawing hands.

If you believe your third reason that nobody showed strength to be worried, then why are you mainly doing this for protection?

BB is not really a factor in the hand, they started with 35bb and already got a third of their stack in. UTG who is also playing short would be the concern and offers the largest potential profit.

I'm sure you've done the calculations to know how a shove compares to an overbet / pot bet / 70% etc. and decided out of all the options the shove is optimal.

Personally, I think it's one of those spots where you're going to get called by better a lot of the time and holding JJ with J you're obviously blocking monster turn draws like QJ / J8. If the players are not total fish, it's hard to think of worse hands which will show up - AT, KT, QT and then you have OESD hands - which you block some of.

Either way, nice job with your weekly results.

Any A, K, Q, 8 (if they have just ONE overcard in their hand) , also, 7, 6 ,5 ,4 ,3 ,2 (one pair that can make 2 pair or trips, gut shots, open ended straight draws, flush draws even).
That's what I;m protecting myself against, ALL THE BAD RIVERS THAT CAN COME.
They didn't show strength until the turn, so that's why I'm raising, because I know that most likely I'm ahead. Why would I just call, to give them the chance to outdraw me?

Plus by shoving, I WIN the pot often right then and there (40 bb)
Also we can't call the small stack a non factor, because he CAN outdraw me too, if he hits whatever I mentioned before on the river I LOSE.
By the way, these two guys have 58 and 63 WPIP.


Thank you

I took a second day off, my body was too tired still after the 33 hours of work in the 3 day weekend and mounting chains issue in the freezing cold. I took just one break in those 3 session like a silly boy ...
I really wish I worked but, I have to take care of myself too. It's all good.

Anyway, I looked up some hands for you from this month:


When you know your opponents are light:





...vilain 11 had 53 VPIO, Vilain 23 had 83 VPIP.




Don't be scarred homie:









All right




So you want to play heads up ehhhh?

You should play PLO. I run 10 Buying under EV in 950 hands on a weekly basis.

I haven't been running too well, so I didn't want to play too much either.
I'll make some more accounts on a few sites within 2 weeks so I can play as much as I want if things are not going well on one site.
This 3 day weekend I have to play a lot no matter what.
EZ 30 hours.
LETS GO BOYS !!!

What difference will switching sites make? Unless you think the player pool on your current site are generally equally skilled / better than you.

You can get a bad run on any given site, just change it if it's really bad. No point in throwing away money.




First session of the day:



I had to pull out all my tricks to win this hand:


Also you can now view the hands in a replayer, hope you appreciate it

https://www.upswingpoker.com/replayer/6e77cb00

Is this a doomswitch thing?

Assuming a site is fair, you're just as like to get your AA cracked by KK on ipoker as you are on Stars / any other legit site. Switching sites will do nothing other than you may put some weighting to it and benefit psychologically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PSG...l=NickEastwood
If this doesn't convince that the doomswitch exists SOMETIMES, then I don't know what will.
If it was me in this particular video playing I would have stopped after running 5 buyins under EV worst case scenario.







Second session of the day:




iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.05/€0.10 - 4 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker - https://upswingpoker.com/replayer/3e77dz8v

UTG (Hero): €16.18 (162 bb)
BU: €10.00 (100 bb)
SB: €5.81 (58 bb)
BB: €10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: (€0.15) Hero is UTG with Q♥ Q♣
Hero raises to €0.25, BTN 3-bets to €1.70, 2 players fold, Hero calls €1.45

Flop: (€3.55) K♦ T♠ 4♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets €8.30 (all-in), Hero calls €8.30

Turn: (€20.15) T♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (€20.15) T♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: €20.15 (Rake: €1.34)

Showdown:
BU shows T♣ J♦ (four of a kind, Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 15%, Flop: 18%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

UTG (Hero) mucks Q♥ Q♣ (a full house, Tens full of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 85%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

BU wins €18.81

A nice call punished this hard?
Come on.

Third session of the day:




iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.05/€0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker - https://upswingpoker.com/replayer/6e77fQk1

UTG: €10.45 (105 bb)
MP: €4.00 (40 bb)
CO (Hero): €30.48 (305 bb)
BU: €12.42 (124 bb)
SB: €6.24 (62 bb)
BB: €10.53 (105 bb)

Pre-Flop: (€0.25) Hero is CO with 2♣ 2♦
UTG raises to €0.40, MP calls €0.30, Hero calls €0.40, BTN calls €0.40, 2 players fold

Flop: (€1.75) 8♣ 2♥ J♠ (4 players)
UTG bets €1.15, MP folds, Hero calls €1.15, BU folds

Turn: (€4.05) T♥ (2 players)
UTG bets €3.60, Hero calls €3.60

River: (€11.25) T♣ (2 players)
UTG bets €5.30 (all-in), Hero calls €5.30

Total pot: €21.85 (Rake: €1.45)

Showdown:
UTG shows A♦ J♣ (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 48%, Flop: 2%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

CO (Hero) shows 2♣ 2♦ (a full house, Twos full of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 52%, Flop: 98%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

CO (Hero) wins €20.40



He wanted to do all the work, all right, I like it.



Today overall:



Today I played 12 hours , I' ll do the same the next two days.


LET'S GO !!!!!

I'm only 3 minutes in and he loses AQ vs KK calling all the way down with top pair top kicker. Next hand he gets it in for 100bb with KK against AA and wins. Later he wins a flip with AK vs QQ. Hardly doomswitch stuff.

The guy just seems like a dramatic fish with that video title tbh.