Following, good luck!

Thank you very much, I appreciate it.

I'd like to mention that I have to make 200 buyins for the next level though, so 500 buyins at 10 NL. Most litely I'll need at least 650 buyins or so if I make can make it in two months because of the real life expenses.

Thanks again

Much love!


Today I took the beating of my life.
I started and right of the bat it went horrendously, I actually was down 72 euros at some point, then I stopped
I felt tired. I also have a rule where I don't play tired. So I went for a run, slapped myself lightly and drank a redbull to wakeup.
I went back to work.























The ... enemies were funny, they really tried eh...


This 3 day weekend I'll play 31.5 hours aiming for a 20 bb/100.
LETS GO !

Get out of my pot hand:








This next guy has a fold to 4bet percentage of 84% lol, I had to call his 3 bet:











....OK





Anyway overall a decent day:

This is a reg, I started the first session today and he 4 bet me like 3 hands in 10 minutes, I though: "OK good luck !"


iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

CO: €20.01 (200.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): €10.84 (108.4 bb)
SB: €10.00 (100 bb)
BB: €10.00 (100 bb)
UTG: €4.01 (40.1 bb)

SB posts €0.05, BB posts €0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.15) Hero has K A
2 folds, Hero raises to €0.33, SB raises to €1.36, fold, Hero raises to €2.60, SB raises to €10.00, Hero calls €7.40

Flop: (€20.10, 2 players) 8 Q A

Turn: (€20.10, 2 players) 8

River: (€20.10, 2 players) 9

Results: €20.10 pot (€1.34 rake)
Final Board: 8 Q A 8 9

Hero shows K A: (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 43%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)

SB shows J J: (Two Pair, Jacks and Eights)
(Pre 57%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)

Hero wins €18.76

After this he quit, lol.




Do you guys like 6 bets?







Anyway:
I played 14 tables of like 3 hours, keeping in consideration the advices I got from the player that told me to pay attention who I'm playing against...
...
...

GL!

Much love

hey, why are you playing in euros? Very nice results btw.

Thank you

...because I live in a country that has it as currency and I can t play outside my country for now.
But hey, a certain ammount of more success and I'll move to a country that allows me to play on as many sites as I want while paying very low takes as a poker player.

Unfortunatelly I had some things to do and coudn't play 31.5 hours this weekend, I did play 24 hours with a winrate of, above promised, above 20bb\100 (24,9 to be exact).



Where can I find more guys like this do you o know?






Is he trying something?








Result:





I want to play 70 000 hands with a winrate of 22bb\100 next week.
LET'S DO IT !!!


PS: I'll post this week's result soon, I have to know the bonuses I'm receiving.

Second week of January result:







New week new goal already set
LET'S GO !!!

Awesome bro with rb also

Keep it up!

Guys today I took a day off.
At 5 AM I open pokerstars and I see an offer: “Deposit 100 euro for a free 50 euro Spin and go ticket”.
I think OK, I'll accept but I'll see if I deposit or not (I was with my friends on discord, after playing Valorant). After some thought I decided to play right then and there, I told my friends and they said they want to watch so I deposited the 100 euro and got my ticket.
I tell my friends:”The only thing I need is silence ”, they agreed.

Spin and go prize comes out, and it's 150 euro.

Hi man

Insane results for 10NL! Great job I'm actually a bit jealous lol. I'm kidding for the jealous part dw mate but damn this is some serious money made per week at the 10NL, proof that winrate + volume can get you somewhere, even at the micros. Congratz!

Continue on your journey

You're too kind

Ugly, ugly session.


this guy has a 4bet range of 4%










ok.




Yesterday is over,

Today we'll SMASH THEM ALL !!!
LET'S GO !!!

I'll update what's going on:
So I've been playing on my main site right, and since I'm about to reach a monthly bonus (I need to rake just 150 euros now to get a 200 euro bonus) I started to run bad, just beyond bad one could say.
Without sounding like I'm whinning too much: I'm getting collers left and right, I hit no hands, the hands that I get preflop 90% of the time get outdrawen posflop or I just go all in While Ahead 60 to 80 % and still lose. When I hid great premium hands on flop I get outdrawen on a later street, or I get it in on the flop, turn and get outdrawen again. LOL
I made very few mistakes.
Maybe going all in with AK while running like this , that also might be a mistake, lol.
It reeeeeely seems like they're discouraging me from getting to that monthly bonus by making me run so badly.

This is the graph for my main site:



10 buyins under EV in just 9500 hands?
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.........
(These are 3 sessions combined in two days by the way. I kept stopping because I was running like this but nothing changed.)

Fortunately I played a session on another account:

And I won that 150 euro Spin and go on Monday night.

This is what's going to happen:

I'm going down to 2NL just to get the bonus and because I don't feel like playing 10 NL while I run horrifically, and then if I still run bad I'll give a warm GOODBYE to this bloody site.

There's a solution to everything.
EZ

I typically will get a stretch like this every 100k hands where its a -10-15 buyin drop... OFC some of it is bad play but yeah you should get use to being outdrawn or they ping the river on you I get this alot also. Just take a break and come back when you don't feel tilted what is saving me money and keeping my winrate high is learning to instant quit off the tables when something tilts you hard. Like when I have 95% equity and they hit two outer or I seem to keep splitting pots when I run it twice with 90% equity. Stuff like this I just learn to quit and do something else and come back later when I feel I won't do something stupid on the tables.

This year over 100k hands so far in January I have done I am currently 8 buyins below EV. You going to run below EV when you get it in as the favorite unless you totally sun run which just doesnt happen for me at all lol

I don't think that's the way it works.

Whether or not you run above / below EV is where variance and standard deviations come into play.

Sorry, what do you mean exactly?

nogamenolife stated when you get the money in as a favourite you're going to run below EV unless you run hot.

That isn't accurate. When you get the money in as a favourite (let's say 80%), out of 100 runs - you will win 80 and lose 20. Due to variance it's very plausible that at times you might only win 50/100 runs or even win 100/100 runs.

The EV line will show that you were expected to win 80% of the pot. When you win: you get 100% of the pot and run above EV. When you lose: you get 0% of the pot and run below EV.

Over the long run, our profit / loss line should match our EV. Although due to variance it is rarely the case.

In short: if you get it in as a favourite a lot, you're not guaranteed to run under EV. You could run according to your EV, below or above. That's just down to the variance gods.

yes sorry i mean is over a larger sample of hands you should expect to run below EV at some point... It will deviate from your EV or yes you can run above but I just tend to run below EV for some reason whenI have a higher win rate I have no idea why... maybe the sites are rigged who knows... and over a large sample of hands where I basically got most my money in with flips (and negative win rate) I ran way above EV.... its just a bit weird.

You should have a play with that standard deviation calculator and see all the lines it can generate for profit / loss.

Basically you could be a winning player (picking good spots and +EV situations) and due to variance could be losing money.

Flip a coin 1 million times and you might get runs in the sample where you have 100 heads in a row. The argument about poker is in the long run the variance should even out.

The problem is that those 100 heads in a row could bust your roll / motivation and take you out of the game. In reality, you may never run truly to EV as the sample isn't big enough.

Thanks for the explanation guys.



About this quote (I'm not sure whether you're talking about the 9500 hands or about all the hands I played since I started posting, more than 100 000 hands).
I head the argument that even in 100 000 you might not win as much as you should, because of variance.
Well AT SOME POINT we have to admit the we're winning very close to our Expected Value.
We can't play a million hands drop even and say ahhhh, variance, lol.

I think a great point where variance shouldn't be a factor anymore (or close to 0) is 200 000 hands.


PS: In related news I'll most likely hit 200 000 hands this month.

In those 200,000 hands how many times are you folding? You might think 100,000 or even 200,000 is a big sample but how many hands in that sample are you getting the money all in as a 60%+ favourite? I'd estimate we're now probably talking about a sample of 500 or less?

I used a poker variance calculator to simulate the chart for a 10bb/100 winner over a sample of 100k hands. Standard deviation was set to 100bb/100 by default (it suggests a range of 75-120bb/100) - i'm not sure what would be sensible to use.

Either way, for a 10bb/100 winner you can see that any of these lines are possible and in the worst case scenario will barely be showing a profit. You may like to think in the long run you should be winning close to your expected value but that's not necessarily the case.