ty bud. Not sure if you're referencing broad poker strat or just retirement strat but the latter I don't really feel like I'm in the right spot to give any productive advice. Had a look through my databases and apparently just running like insane bad the past year or so and contradictions in my head bouncing between "you're bad and the harder working regs have surpassed you" and "the games seem possibly rigged" and "the games seem to be at the point it's just regs fighting over crumbs/edges running way thinner thus variance explodes and I'm on the bad end of the stick". Once I spend a few days in the lab and figure out stuff on my own end maybe I can give off a hot tip or two

If I had to be honest I don't think the recent bink sped up the retirement process at all. If anything it further delayed it. Have been having heaps of existential thoughts about my poker career and various conversations with role models of mine regarding how I should proceed. Responses vary from "retire tomorrow" to "grind your ass off and suck out every last penny from this game". Simply put, this whole scenario has put a lot of anxiety on my back because I really don't know exactly what I want to be doing the rest of my life, and at 27 that can be a bit scary. Sorta feel like for lack of better current options and discomfort of leaving the game I've just stayed here.

If there's any certainty in how I want my future to be shaped I'm happy to say I'm 100% sure I want the following and am willing to devote myself to it:

Health:

Optimize physical/mental health. Dedicate myself to further understanding of what healthy body and mind means and keep working to be the best I can be in this category. Uncover/deal with some of the trauma causing high anxiety and negative thought patterns.

Wealth:

Have the financial and time freedom to be able to not be strapped down to one scenario. Not saying I want to be Dan Bilzerian but having some cash stored in the bank for comfort/freedom is always nice. In an ideal sense I'd have a few revenue streams bringing in money so that I wouldn't need to rely on the risk of only one income.

Relationships:

Keep gaining experience on dating and relationships. Early 20s were really rough on me as I got into a few years of a semi-toxic relationship, got fat, got depressed, lost self-confidence and everything spiraled downwards in that sense. Recent year or two been finding my dating life again but still needs work. Maybe one day the circumstances will align where it's a good spot to settle for something more stabilized...I have a lot of learning/experience needed before that happens.

-Also work on obvious relationship skills/work to require new friends/build on existing relationships/work on networking skills etc.

Happiness:

Might be a function of all of the above/might not be. Hopefully at the end of the day I can say I was happy for the most part and was a good person etc.


That's about all I can consider in the "certain plan" category. I do have some job prospects and have been discussing loads with 2 friends about starting up some type of company or money making operation. I'll keep looking for more revenue streams etc. and look for branches to jump to out of this game. Poker definitely misaligns with some of the above values but for now YOLO this is what I have might as well give it my best effort


------------------------

I apologize for the ridiculously long-winded response and thanks for asking the question it forced me to map some things out and think for a bit. Wish I could tell you "welp August 1st, 2019 I'm going to quit poker, buy this stock, buy this property, get this job" but sorta feel like I'm playing it by ear a tad atm

Next few days/this month gonna be spending a lot of time on preparing mind/game/office space for SCOOP etc. I'll leave a few hands here would love to hear constructive critique as usual. For now I'm just gonna post em and not say anything.

https://www.boomplayer.com/30471845_81DB54F129

https://www.boomplayer.com/30471493_8CA0D4FD00
almost folded turn here and then was so oi on river just hit call. sick of donating to guys playing their ranges just so face up and never bluffing. think c betting flop mightbe highest EV line, in fact almost sure of it.

https://www.boomplayer.com/30470850_D458390BB6
vs brazillian fish/reg punter

PS: Saw this girl on the Rogan podcast interesting story and pretty nice instagram

https://www.instagram.com/valentinethomas/?hl=en

If it makes you feel better, very few know what they actually want to be doing. And part of that is that what you want to be doing can definitely change and evolve over time. Imo whether you should move on now or later mostly comes down to your realistic best guess at your yearly ev. If you think a decent full time grind is likely to only produce 40-50k of ev and be hard to save much money it's prob best to play part time while spending a decent amount of effort to explore different areas you think might interest you. If you think your ev is 80k+ and able to save 30k+ a year it's prob worth it to stick around awhile longer and maybe spend a small amount of time thinking about potential next steps.

Yeah for sure it does kinda make me feel better in a way haha. Some days I get really worried and paranoid about that stuff and then some days I just enjoy the fact that I'm alive and enjoy life lol. I think I'm sorta committed to poker until I find something that I'm really excited to move into or forced to leave the game.

Tbh the most important thing to me right now is getting my health/relationships/happiness to the levels I want them to be at. I'm not overly concerned about money right now as I am those things. Like I spent so much energy on making money last few years and I'm happy with that category-If I spent as much time and effort as I have on poker on health/relationships I would be a fkn god in those categories and probably broke

Think I'm happy the next few months going all out on health and life stuff with as much poker mixed in as I feel comfortable with. Maybe re-evaluate the job option after the Summer or something

Decided to get back into floating last night on a whim. Booked a few sessions gonna try to go like 1-2x per month. Maybe the whole float thing is a bit placebo but 100% can say I feel a massive stress detox when I get out of each session. For those who don't know you basically lie in a completely dark and quiet tank with highly salted water that matches the temperature of your skin. The idea is that the water matches the temperature of your skin and the darkness/quiet really numbs your senses. After some time you begin to lose sensation and it puts your mind into an altered state. There's many alleged benefits but the main one I notice is massive stress reduction.

--------

After a while lying in the darkness I started trying to think about certain things I want to change my mindset or attitude about.

The first thing issue I realized was in my attitude that occasionally in high stress poker situations I can say some pretty out of line things when tempers are flaring. I'm extremely competitive and hate losing and once in a blue moon say a comment that is unacceptable. Sometimes I say things to "goat" people into exposing me their hands or because in the moment it's made me feel better about losing. In a recent live tourney I said something completely out of line when I folded the turn I said "if you're bad enough to have a bluff here you deserve this pot."...I mean...COMPLETELY out of line from me. I was steamed and started bickering with the guy next to me. During the dinner break I thought to myself "what a dick move by me" and went and apologized to the two players and said that was unacceptable behaviour.

Let's flash back to a little story from when I was ~14 playing hockey. I was from an outside town on this team and wasn't really close with many of my teammates who many went to school together etc. There was this one kid (we'll call him Scott) who I always thought had a good heart and he was probably one of the funniest people I've ever met. On this team I was kind of an easy target because I was quiet and didn't have many defense mechanisms so this kid started to bully me a bit. Was super tilting because you feel quite betrayed when people from your own team are turning on you but w/e. Eventually the whole bullying thing was moving from 1 kid to like 4 or 5 kids on the team and I was dreading going to games/practises or team building events.

Back to the poker story, I started thinking to myself as to why I might have these issues and how I never want to be a sore loser. There is a huge difference between being competitive and disliking losing and being a sore loser. I'm looking back at the hand now and wishing I'd just kept my mouth shut or said nice hand or something. Had this weird epiphany where I need to start being happy for people even if they are my enemy. It's so easy to be happy for a friend or somebody you like to have success. It's much harder to be genuinely happy for a random person, and wayyyyy harder to be happy for an enemy. I really want to fix this mindset issue because any positive feelings achieved from being mean or anti-sweating others is shallow, temporary, and resembles somebody who's in a very dark place.

I feel truly wanting the best for others and being happy when they are happy is a much deeper feeling of happiness. When some drunk guy stacks me in a 5k pot because he jammed 250 BBs all in pre flop with 66 and sucked out my AA I want to be able to just smile and say "that's part of the game" and be happy for him that maybe he can enjoy that money or feeling of winning. Like genuinely think "good for you man", instead of some insincere passive aggressive remark.

Back to Scott. I recently ran into one of my old team mates and was asking about him. My old team mate told me this guy got arrested for dealing coke and was having massive mental health issues and was bouncing back and forth between a rehab retreat and a mental health ward.

I guess sometimes our actions towards others are more projections of how we feel about ourselves rather than anything against them.

Much like how in the poker hand it was not anything the villain did to deserve a mean remark. They were just enjoying the game and having fun winning a big pot. It wasn't a problem with them, it was a problem with me.


----------------

For the record that story looks really bad on me. I think I'm a great guy to play with 99% of the time...the 1% needs some work

Off to 'Murica for a live tourney this weekend best of luck to y'all!

I know you've been health conscious in the recent years, but you know salty junk food works when stressed :P
Personally for me with the poker situation, it's a lot less stressful to keep quiet and let villain keep doing his thing.

Congrats on the win @fallsview

lmao believe me I know alllllllll too well. i'm more health conscious now than i've ever been but it's still a massive issue/constant temptation

yeah it's a mindset leak I need to work on for sure.

tyvm

Got a pretty "run good-esque" gambling story to tell:

After bricking the 1k live event in the armpits of 'murica this weekend (no offense if you're from Buffalo) I was tilted and canceled my hotel room for the night and drove home. A favourite past time of mine while driving is just chatting on the phone with random people to pass the time. Anyways, was talking to my buddy and he said he was bored af and suggested "let's go throw some dice". I was tired af and not really feeling it but it beat going home and passing out.

So we eventually met up and traveled to the nearest craps game (you may think I have a craps problem because I've been mentioning it a few times lately lol). Long story short my buddy convinces me to put 1$ on the "fire bet" and we ended up binking it and getting paid out 1k:1. The casino had to pay out our table over 60k in total and everyone was ecstatic. It kinda got me into the black on the day so I was happy but more so for my buddy as he was +4k on the night and that's like suchhhhh a help for his life atm.

I googled the odds of this happening and found it was approx. 1/6200 or so (as if the shock of the casino staff couldn't have tipped me off as to how rare it was). Kinda feels like we "beat the game of craps" and don't think I'll ever be able to run that pure in a casino game again in my life.

-----------------

https://www.boomplayer.com/30520481_AE53042BF0
interesting hand nearing ITM vs FU 15. Not even sure if we're supposed to be c-betting this hand, the player on the BTN was a fish as well. This might just be a x/f. Turn I think we have the best hand some of the time/we have tonnes of better bluffs so shutting down reasonable imo.

On river I'm thinking my range is fairly capped/weak ish. Felt like he won't have too many flushes but a loose reg can have T9/89/56/bd diamond draws/68 etc etc. we're not really blocking any of his bluff range.

Reasonable call down yeh?

https://www.boomplayer.com/30520473_2AAD3B197C
vs a fish. think it's standard (from my end at leasst)

https://www.boomplayer.com/30519952_4A583CAB6D
find these spots tricky as well this was vs a fish. feel like my checking range is kinda weak on flop and very weighted towards KK/JJ/TT specifically. If the only strong hand I check is top set becomes even more so. Not that it's really important vs a fish but should we be constructing our checking range to lose a little EV with some strong hands such as Ax/QQ to protect middling strength hands? Guess it's whatever. How often we calling turn when readless on tendencies?

Ty in advance for any constructives here/skype or w/e

-----------------

"Junk Values"

This book I've been reading outlines this term for values that people have adopted in modern society often because of advertising or those that their culture has instilled on them. It talks about this study where little kids were shown a brief 30 second ad for a toy. Following the ad they were offered to play with kid A who they were told was very mean but had the toy, and kid B who didn't have any toys but was very nice. Every kid chose kid A to play with.

This study represents how humans are very suggestible by advertising and this type of behaviour plagues our society. People are brainwashed to value materialistic things and they look for people who do the same.

Honestly this **** is capable of terrorizing our internal beliefs and turning us into toxic waste. I looked back to some of my beliefs in the past and can remember times of being extremely envious of friends who had success in poker, or got better grades than me, or had a hot girlfriend. I mean, not just a little jealous type of envy but like full on would corrupt my mindset. Problem is when you internalize these beliefs you start to gain an obsession for things like money, trophies, tournament wins, a nice sharkscope graph etc and you lose touch with the things that make you happy as a human like your health, relationships, experiences, etc. Eventually you obtain the things you thought you desired and it leaves you feeling empty and deflated only to realize those "junk values" aren't what you craved afterall.

I never want to be that guy anti-sweating a friend in a tournament ever again, or even anti-sweating anybody for that matter. I'm generally very good about being truly happy for the success of my friends but it's wayyyyy harder to be happy for an enemy. The book suggests meditating and visualizing good things happening to your friends/enemies to dispel the toxic anti-sweating mentality.

It's really easy to get sucked into this mentality in poker because everybody is always flaunting their money/status and the guys in the spotlight are generally the ones with the most relative success. A subtle brainwashing occurs that you begin to believe people will value you for the amount of money you've won or how good you are at poker and not the quality of person that you are.

The sad reality is that many people will assign value to others for materialistic reasons sometimes...those relationships are often hollow, empty, transactional, and "junk".

----------------

Speaking of another type of "junk", I've been eating way too much junk food last week. Gym has been going phenomenal but as hard as I've tried...you can't out train a bad diet Weight has been stagnant around ~258 lbs. for a while now. Whenever I cut out carbs/sugars/processed BS I start leaning up quick...if only I could stay disciplined for more than 2 weeks at a time Back on the wagon tomorrow

Hope the trillions of you guys reading this are all doing well and GL this week!

I wouldn't say I greatly anti sweat anyone but I do find seeing other people going through the same kinds of struggles as cathartic. Like variance in general can be so nasty and it's good to get a reminder sometimes that no one is invincible and just runs pure forever. I think it's important to build each other up though in life in general. 2p2 used to be full of so much of that and it was really nice. There's still some good people around but there's also plenty of toxic trolls who are so upset with their own lives that they just want to share their negativity all over the place. I suppose it was prob the natural progression of things as there is less easy money to be spread around and people feel like they need to fight over scraps.

gg craps, amazing run u sunrunner u

first 2 hands are whatev, ak cant be that bad as a cbet for protection/value and h2 std
h3 just fold... think we should have some A8- to check there but just fold... it's sometimes tough when u get these spots 9 times in a session where u just feel so exposed and tripping about everybody exploiting your checking range that is mostly KK- but whenever I made that tilted call there they always had it

yeah i feel the same, like I never deliberately wanted somebody to lose money but I'm guilty of wanting some people to feel the power of downswing just for a bit, when they are ''sunrunning'' for too long and in need of reality check... usually they're tricked that they're actually invincible but this is obv very flawed and weak thinking

i think what is actually happening on 2p2 is that most of the toxic OPs that throw **** on people or/are somehow toxic themself get super toxic responses from all the trolls, while it's very rear to see it in this thread or jdawgs or whatev. everybody attracts what they are radiating basically ( sry if english doesnt make sense #slavic ftw )

@tyman: yeah I wouldn't say I really anti-sweat anybody either. The most common form of anti-sweating I see is like when a streamer who is winning stuff a lot of regs get jealous and kinda hate for whatever reason because they believe that person doesn't deserve success or something. You can see whole threads on 2p2 that are just dedicated to speculation and gossip about random twitch streamers.

One of my buddies after I won that recent live tourney told me he was talking to this other "reg" who was basically saying I'm a nit reg who probably had a tiny piece of myself in that win etc. Just need to understand that these type of comments don't come from a healthy place and need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It's pretty out of line tbh when I don't even know the guy and he has 0 idea what my financial situation is/where my money is invested/how big of a piece I actually had/what assets I have etc. Maybe if he was better at managing his BR he wouldn't be in heaps of makeup telling other people how to manage theirs.

If I've ever anti-sweated anybody it's one of my ex-friends in poker who would always tell me how bad I was and how I didn't deserve any of the success I've had. This guy is a sick sick level narcissist and I spent so much time and energy trying to help/change him that all went too waste. All I did was hurt my own progression and waste time in the process. It's so easy to want good things for people that you know want good things for you...sadly the inverse is also true. Working to change my mindset to just either be truly indifferent or genuinely want the best for that type of person. There's just no point preying on the downfall of other people because it's pointless and dark. You don't feel good about yourself doing it (at least I don't).

I guess some people are just in different vibrations of energy and they kind of resonate with the level they're in. The stable "Pocarr" rejected me maybe ~6 years ago when I was at my darkest point in poker. Instead of working harder to get better and get accepted into a stake I took it personally and started making a mockery of their brand. I made an avatar that said "Poocarr" and the image was a turd on wheels and I was berating all Pocarr horses when they were on my table.

Kinda sad/funny to look back on now but that behaviour wasn't coming from a very positive/healthy place that is for sure.

So there's an extremely long winded response with 3 anecdotal stories

---------------

@nomalice: ty my dude. yeah I agree like so many times I'm telling myself "I can't just always fold in x spot every time"...then I talk myself into calling and yup they just always have it still to confirm my belief that some spots are massively underbluffed. After playing millions of hands we recognize patterns and surely it took a lot of calling in these types of spots to realize people just aren't bluffing lol.

yeah but we also still call more often than never

jealousy and envy are two different things...

while both are bad/negative jealousy is way better the envy

envy is destructive => we sweat for someone to get bad times so he can feel the pain
when we are envy of something (somebody) we are not working to improve ourselves to get better and to get to next level in life,work etc ... we just want to see that person down... we dont want to lift ourselves to his position and to become like that person or better

jealousy is progressive => we want to become like the person we are jealous (to take his place or be better then him)...we want to have(feel,own etc) something that someone else have..
so jealousy is on some weird way motivating to pick our **** together and to start working harder (research,imitate etc) to lift ourselves to higher level and experience (have) things that we are jealous of

envy =>...this person has X,Y,Z ... i dont think he "deserve" them... i want him to loose all those X,Y,Z things that i think he doesnt "deserve"...

jealousy => ...this person has X,Y,Z... i am at least good as he or way better... if he can do it i can do it too...

regarding hands
- AK i like how poker players are optimistic (both you and villain).. on serious note when i Cbet that hand i will barel turn and maybe jam some rivers to put presure on his 7x,Jx,4x and charge his draws
- AJ if he is fish size it up pre like 8k and as played on flop like 10k, for value
- KK

why would on heavens earth you do that w AK ?
we're not bluffing flop either. edit: im checking flop prob 100% but i can see some reasons for protection bet altough not too many
edit2: gl w putting pressure on Jx

i said if we decide to Cbet that combo the hands he is continuing should be 7x,4x,Jx draws so with second barel we directly puting presure on 7x,4x draws (is more value bet vs draws) and we r seting up pot to shove some rivers (and to make him fold some Jx)

so yea when i rarely use this combo to cbet i prefer to barel with it

@ re8 jealousy stuff: interesting as I actually google'd to see some receipts on what you are saying and indeed you are correct. I always used the words as a synonym but now see they are a little bit different

regarding AK hand:

I think a lot of tourney players (me included) have the mistake of leaning towards playing certain parts of our range with 100% consistency which leads to some imbalances in our strategy...like a lot of people will either say for this AK hand either "yes it's a c bet" or "no its not a c bet". For this type of spot I think we should be mixing to an extent instead of always deviating towards the same option.

Merits to c-betting:
-thin value/protection
-better chance at realizing equity with a hand that is the best hand a non-zero % of the time.
-big blinds x/c range can be quite weak and we're not blocking weaker hands that continue/not blocking hands he can bluff with on brick run outs/blocking some of his stronger bluff catchers
-good barrel opportunities on certain turn/rivers vs a weak ish defense range
-We don't always have to barrel off and especially not on turns/rivers that are bad for us...it's ok to have some hands that just shut down on turns
-Decent bluff catcher on some run outs and we'll so frequently be able to realize equity vs the big blind
-folding out anything is a pretty big win for us. potentially fold out smaller pocket pairs etc

Merits to Checking:

-Kinda obvious few reasons.

------------

As for using this as a bluffing candidate I really like it on certain turn cards but I think this specific turn card just burning money barreling it and we have tonnes of other hands to bluff with? Might work well as an exploit though would be interesting to break down how much the average villain is callinng down on various run outs etc

Ty for the thoughts guys I appreciate it.

----------------

Working on getting that new computer and a new monitor/standing desk..getting the office to be GTO in time for SCOOP. It's a place I spend so much time and so much financial EV /life EV is attached to my office space so pretty stupid of me not to have it optimal all these years. Also working to get a new King size mattress/black out blinds for my room...massively under spent on these things in recent years and lost heaps of EV because of it. Literally in University I bought a mattress off Walmart website that came rolled up in a box.

I'll get some pics in here when I get it all up and running

i would recommend to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...R4&app=desktop

will check it out re8 tyvm

---------

as for now somebody just won a triple crown in one day i think you may know him very wellllll

more on that some other time...my friend making sure my ass gets to the gym for 10 AM, (its 4 AM now)

The bad news: Was up until 5 AM last night and didn't sleep very well and had to bail on my 9 AM gym session. Doesn't feel great but might still go today and 100% going tomorrow.

The good news: Shipped the hot 44 for ~3k, bb 162 for ~10, and another tourney on another site for somewhere between 6 and 11k

Crazy man how this game works: a few months ago nearing the end of 2018 I was in shock of how bad I was running and feeling hopeless in the game. Even just playing small stakes 1/2 live sessions trying to cut variance/gain confidence back I was on the dog end of seemingly every hand. Literally felt like every day grinding was just a donation of 1k or so back to the poker community.

I guess this last month or two I've been getting all my EV and wayyyy more back Instead of second guessing myself on every decision, playing too passively, getting tilted, expecting to lose, and feeling hopeless (which was how I was starting to feel when I was losing)...I felt like a ****ing god when I was grinding yesterday. Maybe it was because I wasn't running like absolute dog **** or the copious amounts of CBD oil ingested but I felt like a lion hunting gazelles. The recent upswing has allowed me to just refocus, keep calm, and put that organic feeling back in the game. Instead of playing to cash or to "not lose", I've been playing to win. Just playing less tables and less days/week+added real life balance has allowed me to just enjoy the game a lot more. Instead of focusing on GTO and all of that (which I have been studying for sure), I've been focusing on approximating villain's strategies and exploiting that...because IMO that's what makes the most most money.

Disclaimer: It's way easier to say you played well/your A game when you are running well. When you're constantly top range and villains are bottom range and everything works it feels amazing and like it's all skill. In reality, so much of this game has to do with how you run in the short term. You know those sessions where you're constantly in tough af spots and finding yourself bottom range and nothing goes right? Well yeah, it's way harder to play your A game when you are running like aids...I don't care what anyone says.

---------------

Here's a couple hands:

https://www.boomplayer.com/30578065_EECC707C62
vs a fish, I find these spots so tricky OOP. Run out is aids, anybody play this different?

https://www.boomplayer.com/30577946_0EE374E940
vs a fish again...river felt so thin...should we just pay the man?

https://www.boomplayer.com/30577744_77D1BDBC82
vs sydens- he tank folded river. I think bluffing here we need to be blocking boats for sure and not blocking Qx...tbh I think bluffing like a bad reg or fish here would be torching money but vs. a good reg it might print idk. Sucks when like TT calls us but pretty sure he can make some massive folds here and we have the nut blocker to do it.

-------------------

So this past weekend I was glued to the tv all weekend watching "The Masters". Partly because I had some action on a few guys and partly because watching that prestigious tournament is like the nut way to spend passive time.

Anybody else who watched it would have witnessed an old dog by the name of Tiger Woods rise to the top of the leader board. For a guy that's been through massive back issues, struggling to find his game, being booted from sponsorships, trashed by the media, and been the perpetrator in a barrage of cheating affairs on his wife that would make even Bernie Madoff look innocent...Tiger's golf game came back to life.

As much as I think in most cases cheating is wrong and that Tiger probably has enough money for the next 50 lifetimes already, and as much as he's had more success than any of us can dream of-I love watching a nice come back story. It's amazing seeing a guy persevere through hardship and find his touch again. Tiger said he had to wake up @ 3 AM before his rounds this weekend just in order to prepare his back for the upcoming rounds.

The final day of "The Masters" Tiger did not even play that well. Actually, he really only won because he played better than everybody else. Molinari had a 3 stroke lead at one point during the day and went on to shoot into the water twice for 2x double bogeys, among other choke artists.

One thing that impressed me was whenever a lot of the veterans like Tiger or Phil Mickelson made a blunder they would just refocus and not be phased and go on to finish the hole to the best of their ability. This one hole Phil's drive went into the woods, he shot out of the woods across the fair way into the adjacent woods...clearly a disaster. He managed to save par on that hole. In a tournament against the best in the world with such tiny edges-the difference between winning and losing can be literally one bad shot or one slip in mindset.

Poker is much the same as golf- you will always feel emotions, you will always make mistakes, you will always get sucked out...every tournament. The guys who put the time in at the driving range (volume/study), remain cool under pressure, and bring their A effort day after day despite massive adversity...will eventually get their Green Jacket...just like Tiger (well actually their 5th ).

--------------------

Less than 1 mohr month before SCOOP...gotta say I'm getting in the zone.

Best of luck gents and thousands of beautiful women reading this

-TT hand it really depends on villain bounty imo what line to take (imo in frezout is best to just jam there with icm etc) in bounty is better to 3/b call off... when that ssaid i will size it up preflop to like ~100k
as played i will bet rally big on turn vs fish on that drawy board like 130-150k
- A9 hand ****ed up line by villain dont make much sense tbh (also sizing it up)... what the **** is his value there?? like AJ/AQ??? i am expecting those combos to be 3bet a ton preflop and flushes to jam turns on the other hand he can have a ton of QJ combos or some optimistic KQ combos... weird line
- K4 as played i guess is fold or bluff river

congrats on binks

TT jamming pre most likely unless OR is super huge spazzer. as played going bigger OTT for sure, fvck spr (agreed w re8uz about something :O )

A9o i'd check back pretty happily, i mean what do you expect him to call that's weaker than trips?

K4 I don't see it ? what are we targetting to fold that is stronger? I guess AQ ( combos that a)don't barrel turn b)overbet which doesn't seem like much) and that's it. i dunno who we playing against but K4 looks like an river bluffcatcher. also as played think unblocking AQ and blocking T like T9 would be my favourite bluff there if I had to chose.

thanks guys I appreciate your thoughts. this is what I think after further considerations:

TT: yes I should definitely size a little bit bigger here preflop. EV between 3 betting and jamming are probably fairly close I think, but jamming might just do better because it's a prog/a FT and we can get called by some optimistic stuff that a fish might just call pre flop here or fold. This also kinda sucks vs. a fish who will likely not 4b/punt light and most likely do a lot of calling and bloating the pot like this OOP isn't great in terms of variance on FT when I had such a big edge on the field.

-Just a note that the population seems to be sizing quite large with 3 bets nowadays and I'm not sure where I stand on it as I've fallen into the same category. I'm almost 100% sure we should be splitting our ranges in terms of sizings for 3 bets ie sizing 2.8x with x part of our range but sizing 3.5-4x with y part of our range. Obviously for exploits etc as well we should differentiate. Something I'm targeting for lab work before SCOOP.

A9: Honestly just such a thin barrel on the turn but vs a big fish's tendencies who will just do a tonne of calling here + the Ah blocks nuts/his bluffs so I don't expect to get raised a tonne. The objective of the barrel was to extract value from weaker hands/I can just check a lot of rivers/pot control but when I improve to flushes get max value. Checking is also quite viable and I think it might be my standard. River also seems super thin imo but almost mandatory value bet vs a monkey who miight make some curiosity calls. These spots I just don't see bluffs very much so I do a lot of exploit folding, especially on FT on this run out where I've shown 3 streets of aggression with such a nut range I DOUBT a fish is capable of bluff jamming...like almost certain lol. Sucks cuz fish could just be owning me here but that being said I do have some nut hands as well that I certainly won't fold Is it tough for him to have strong hands? Sort of. Is it tough for him to bluff vs. a perceived nut range on FT? Extremely. Just sick of calling these spots and getting shown the nuts over and over and over and over and over. Once in a while I call when I'm not nutted and usually get proven correct that people are massively under bluffing these spots.

K4: was vs. a perceived decent brazillian reg. this is another spot population just seems to be massively underbluffing. We're obviously just targeting Qx like JQ/Q9/AQ...there's some non-zero % chance that guys are folding boats here (not kidding). Not sure I really love the bluff because brazillian reg may just find the call here given pricings/curiosity/tilt or w/e...I also agree holding Tx is our best bluff candidate here that doesnt block Qx...as blocking TT is pretty important as it's a somewhat likely hand for him to have that takes this line...so ye like T9 is a great candidate but Kx also decent as well

^ yeah mate but why would he overbet his Qx ? to foldout splits ?

to get value from Kx, maybe fold out splits, maybe he had AQ and wanted to get value from worse straights idk

presumably for value he had the assumption I don't get to the river with many boats/check them on turn and river so he thought he had the best hand

idk man can't tell ya what these vamoos think haha