"Constant misfortune brings this one blessing: to whom it always assails, it eventually fortifies." - Seneca

I keep telling myself stuff like this to stay positive, but I'm just not sure I believe it anymore. Have you ever found yourself wondering, "How the f- do people make money at this game?" I've been asking myself that a lot lately. But I love online poker, and I'm driven by a desire to overcome failure, so I've decided to start journaling my progress in a goals thread.

A bit of background first. I'm a middle-aged Canadian who has been playing very recreationally for many years. But only within the last few years, as my children have become teenagers, have I had the time to start playing more often and really work on my game. I strictly play low stakes MTTs, up to $22 (though I've dropped down for reasons I explain below). I also only play turbos - I know that will increase my variance, but I simply don't have the time or energy to sit in front of my computer for 12 hours on the weekend or stay up to 3am to play through a regular speed tourney.

I've put quite a bit of work into my game over the past few years, at least as much as I can with a full-time job and family. I listen to several strat podcasts religiously and use an active learning approach: instead of listening passively to hand analyses, I pause at each decision point and think through my own analysis before continuing. I have enough of these hands analyzed on paper to fill several books. I've also consumed a lot of free video content and recently joined Tournament Poker Edge. I've also read a few excellent books, including Brokos's brilliant Play Optimal Poker (haven't picked up volume 2 yet though). I've spent countless hours going through my own tourney histories to practice my hand reading skills. All of this work has made a difference - I feel like my game has improved dramatically and I have a confidence when I play that I never used to have.

The problem is that I'm not seeing any results. I've had some very sporadic success - I've won some small tourneys (150-200 runners) on 888 and I've had a few deep runs in MTTs on Stars, including one runner-up finish in a $5.50 PKO a while back. Those deep runs helped me run my bankroll from $200 to about $1200 over several years but that's where I stalled out. And since then I've been on the worst run I've ever experienced, which has taken my bankroll all the way down to $330 as of today. I've lost about 75% of my roll playing mainly $2-$11 MTTs.

What is so frustrating about this bad run is that I feel like I'm playing well and can't seem to identify any major leaks. I've recently identified a few things I want to work on, but these are minor spots - not the kinds of things that will dramatically change my results. It seems like I constantly get myself into a great position to run deep and then inevitably suffer a crushing bad beat to bust me or cripple me. Game after game after game. If I'm not getting bad beat out of tourneys, I'm running good hands into better hands and running into the tops of people's ranges in very unlikely spots (like open-shoving 99 with 13bb in the SB and the BB wakes up with KK). In today's session alone I ran into AA three separate times over the 5 tourneys I played, twice with AKs. I'm lucky if I can even scratch out an occasional min-cash. Nothing is going my way, and I mean nothing. A bad run is one thing - everybody goes through them - but my entire poker career feels like varying degrees of running bad. I literally don't know what it feels like to run good.

I try to stay positive by reminding myself that MTTs are all about volume and if I play enough the variance will eventually flip in my favor. And when that happens, I'm due for major run-good. Like a Fedor Holz 2015-2018 run. I can only hope that this is rock bottom.

Send your motivational words my way because I could really use them. Onwards.

As much as you study and play it has to be variance beating you. I read quite a few blogs now. The players on 2+2 are more educated on poker then I would say 90% of people that play poker. Its amazing to see how hard they work to get better with using solvers, trackers and studying they do. When anyone works that hard the results will come over the long run. But when we run bad it does take patience. GL grinding.

you should forget results for a while and focus on improving your understanding of the game everyday, that's all that matters, let the results take care of themselves on the long run.

good luck

Thanks man. I know it's also a volume thing because as a recreational player, and one that only started playing more often in the past few years, my tourney volume is still relatively low. People who do this for a living play 100 tourneys per week while I might play 4 or 5. That stretches my bad runs over a much longer period of time, which makes it harder to deal with. I don't want to turn 60 before I finally start making money at this game.

Totally agree. But it's hard to do when it's just bad result after bad result for an extended period of time.

Just quit bro

If you increased the volume, I am sure that will solve the problem with results you are looking for. It is really tough to get good results playing 5 tournaments a week.

I play mostly Turbos/Hypers for the same reasons. Can I ask about your volume? I load up basically as many tables as I can reasonably play and I still go through what feels like extremely long periods of run bad/break even. I don't seem to have as much time now these days, but mentally it's tough opening only a few tables at a time as your going to leave disappointed so often. Obviously in the long run its all just volume, but having purely losing days with no cashes or deep runs can ware you out. I've also learned (and I'm not suggesting you don't understand this) that the degree of variance in large field turbo/hyper tournaments is hard to really comprehend.

You sound like your not tilting/shot taking and are truly trying to grind it out, which in itself gives you a punchers chance to start running good and having some results.

Lol thanks for the support

I would love to but I can really only play on the weekends and I don't have the free time to grind all weekend.

The problem is there just aren't that many tourneys to choose from that fits with my schedule. I'll usually have 2 or 3 running at the same time. My typical session starts around midday (eastern time) and I might play 4-5 over the course of the afternoon.

Poker is unkind, it is very possible you are extremely unlucky. The math shows that there are outliers. How long have you been playing? You werent a winning player even in the mid 2000s? If you werent a winning player then, the chances of you winning in 2021 are exremely slim. Good luck though! Who am i to judge? Poker can be fun, even when we lose.

Hes a rec player playing responsibly for fun, he obviously enjoys the challenge

Hey Darth,

Have you given any thought to getting a little coaching? Its obvious poker is a serious hobby for you. A lack of results with any hobby whether its golf, poker, or whatever is really frustrating. Having a brand new fresh set of eyes on your game is sure to uncover plenty of leaks that you will be able to plug.

I started around 2005 but was playing SnGs back then. Actually did pretty well playing the $1 45-man turbos. But then life got very busy so I only played on and off for years. Only started focusing on MTTs in the last 5 years.

Doesn't really make sense to pay a coach $150/hr or whatever when I'm playing small stakes. That's why I've tried to take full advantage of free resources. I recently joined TPE but I don't think I'll keep the membership. It's just not worth it to pay $25/month for a few hand history vids.

Quit and spend time with your family. Just my opinion

My kids are now 19 and 16, and the older one lives out of town for school. I only recently started taking poker more seriously because I devoted all my free time to my children before. There's no time for poker tourneys when you're running around to birthday parties, gymnastics, baseball, etc.

Planning some solid volume for today and really hoping I can turn a corner. I don't think I'll be able to play all of these, but here's my list of candidates:

1) 5.50 heads-up Zoom total PKO (haven't had much success at these but they're fun to play and great for seeing lots of flops and learning to play marginal spots)
2) Hotter 5.50
3) 5.50 PKO
4) Hotter 4.40/11
5) Winter Series 58-L (11.00)
6) Hotter 3.30
7) Hotter 4.40 PKO
8) 2.20 Micro Triple Threat (these are a lot of fun too)
9) Winter Series 59-L (5.50)

My fav format is the PKO so I'll prioritize those if I have to.

I can't do anything about getting it in good and suffering bad beats, so I'm going to really focus on the stuff I can control and work on some specific things: BB defense, getting back to basics on opening hand ranges, applying pressure when villain's range is capped, that kind of stuff.

Fittingly, I was up early this morning and listened to the most recent TPE podcast episode with Matt Stout. He and Clayton were talking about how badly they both bricked the recent WSOP and Stout mentioned that what helps him deal with that kind of failure is to put the volume in perspective and remember that bricking 25 tourneys at the WSOP is basically just one bad Sunday online. It just feels a lot worse because it's stretched out over 6 weeks instead of a single day. That's basically the position I'm in with the volume I play - my bad run has lasted several months, but the volume over that stretch is probably equivalent to a single weekend for a high volume pro.

Hey Op,

Scan read your IP and the replies...I think I can add a couple of different things here...

First off, been there, done that, got the T-Shirt

I was a serious rec for 10 years, did plenty of study (mostly books, which were mostly out of date and ill suited to the modern game). I played mostly on Stars, another huge mistake...gotta get out and learn the online environment (apps, crypto exchanges the full works) so you can track down the most lucrative online environments for rapid progession).

Spent some time (with some success) on MTTs/STTs but the variance is a killer, so you gotta put in the hours...which is just not do-able for a rec (as you point out). Faster speed tourneys = more variance, so that's a dead-end.

Plus, there is enough information online now that these tourneys are increasingly dominated by grind houses/collusion/RTA etc). Last time I played STTs on stars I'm seeing the same accounts at every table 24/7 making up 50% of the field. With massive rake, no rake back and fields like these, a rec is never going to win in the long term.

Took me ten years to put all that together and I'm no numbnuts (27 years career in military aviation - you need to have an IQ a little better than your shoe size before they let you do that )

I've now quit online for good...I've found better ways to waste my time. I still love the game, which is why I guess I hang around here, and I'll still play the odd home game when I can.

For me these are you options:

1. Stay as you are, play for fun, accept it will be a losing habit.
2. Go large, full time, commit...and live life strapped to your keyboard, to the detriment of yourself and those around you.
3. What this guy said... After ten years and despite my love for the game I chose option 3. I hope you do to, but GL whatever you call.

Appreciate the response, though it was a bit disconcerting to read. I really do enjoy the game and it is basically my only hobby, so I'm not prepared to just admit that I can't win and give up. I mean some people do succeed, even if they're weak players who have benefited from positive variance, so there's no reason it can't be me at some point. And I would like to think that I'm better than the average low stakes player. I mentioned Fedor Holz in my OP, who went on one of the hottest runs in the history of tournament poker - I recall him mentioning in a podcast interview that he was a losing/break-even player for about 4 years before he went on his epic run. That really stuck with me.

Early part of the session is in the books and I have a bit of time until the next tourney, so I figured I would provide a mid-session update.

It sucked. Again.

1) 5.50 heads-up Zoom total PKO. Lasted less than 10 minutes in this one. Crappy starting hands and couldn't hit a single flop when I played. Bled chips until I check/shoved 26bb with K3cc on a flop of AcQc4h in an unraised pot, got called by Jc4c and he held.

2) Hotter 5.50. Overall very uneventful but felt like I played well. Made a couple of good river calls early to win pots but lost a bunch with AA on this annoying hand:

PokerStars - 50/100 Ante 12 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 47.36 BB
MP: 56.32 BB
MP+1: 50.86 BB
MP+2: 46.36 BB
Hero (CO): 49.65 BB
BTN: 56.96 BB
SB: 50.62 BB
BB: 45.97 BB
UTG: 54.24 BB

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.55 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.55 BB

Flop: (6.68 BB, 2 players) 7 6 5
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6.68 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

River: (12.68 BB, 2 players) T
BB bets 6.85 BB, Hero calls 6.85 BB

BB shows 8 9 (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 93%, Turn 77%)
Hero mucks A A (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 82%, Flop 7%, Turn 23%)
BB wins 26.38 BB

I actually think I managed to minimize the damage with the way I played it, but still annoying nonetheless. Most of the tourney was just long stretches of terrible cards punctuated by monsters, but I couldn't seem to get much value out of them (twice more I had AA and everyone folded). Saw 12% of flops total. Eventually got crippled on a flip, AQs<44. Out a few hands later in 814 of 2542.

3) 5.50 PKO. Utterly card dead, hardly had a chance to play. Saw 11% of flops through the first 6 levels and ran 9/3. Busted when I shoved 77 with 12bb and got called by KQ and JJ. The shove was pretty marginal from UTG+1 in a PKO but I had 12bb and needed a double to get back in the game.

4) Hotter 4.40. This one perfectly illustrated my struggle. Things got off to a fantastic start when I rivered the nuts and an opponent shoved his second nuts, doubling me up to about 200bb. I picked up a few more pots after that, attacking turns after defending my BB and villain checked behind on low flops. But then it happened, the inevitable crushing bad beat:

PokerStars - 75/150 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 33.85 BB
MP: 52.13 BB
MP+1: 25.62 BB
Hero (MP+2): 72 BB
CO: 23.75 BB
BTN: 51.38 BB
SB: 31.64 BB
BB: 29.68 BB
UTG: 70.89 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 3.11 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 29.55 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 26.44 BB

Flop: (61.79 BB, 2 players) J J 9

Turn: (61.79 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (61.79 BB, 2 players) T

BB shows A K (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 7%, Flop 2%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 93%, Flop 98%, Turn 91%)
BB wins 61.79 BB

Couldn't get anything going after that and blinded down. Managed to double with AK > A4 but then gave it back on the very next hand when my JJ < KQ. Back down to 11bb. Eventually I 3b-shoved AQ, a shortie shoved behind me with TT, and the original raiser called from his 30bb stack with...98s. And then turned a flush, even with the shortie holding one of his flush outs. Sigh.

Let's hope the second half of the session is better than the first half.

Subbed.

GL brother

Thanks, much appreciated.

Okay I was wrong, I wasn't at rock bottom before. I am now.

This is my bustout hand from the Hotter 4.40 PKO:

PokerStars - 50/100 Ante 12 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 47.86 BB
UTG: 24.94 BB
UTG+1: 25.83 BB
MP: 37 BB
MP+1: 49.02 BB
Hero (CO): 37.02 BB
BTN: 76.58 BB
SB: 48 BB

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 4.46 BB, Hero raises to 36.9 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 32.44 BB

Flop: (76.26 BB, 2 players) J T T

Turn: (76.26 BB, 2 players) 6

River: (76.26 BB, 2 players) 9

MP+1 shows 9 3 (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 33%, Flop 19%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows A Q (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 67%, Flop 81%, Turn 86%)
MP+1 wins 76.26 BB

This one left me ranting in the chat, which I never do. I honestly don't know how much more of this I can take.