why you no fold to 3bet

Duke quit trolling , the 3 bet called mandatory once open.. On the turn I woulda flatted but mostly folding flop. Don't think we need to overcall and protect bad equity .

Broken fold button

Thanks, I definitely spewed in this hand.

Just GII pre with my QQ for 12k vs ATs and didn't hold. Got around 9bbs left so hopefully I run good.

Busted on the last hand before the second break, I have 7bbs with AQ in the SB, BTN min opens, I jam, BB flats, BTN folds and BB opens black AA.

3 diamonds on the flop for a sweat but couldn't hit it. Can't rebuy which is probably a good thing haha. Back to the cash grind.

I actually don't mind the way you played the Q8hh hand. Except with stack sizes being so awkward I'll prolly jus shove over the turn bet when we get that turn. Were risking 18k to win bout 6k n change.Raise folding is pretty lame there. Plus he could potentially bet fold ace highs

Theres an equation to find out how often villain needs to fold to our turn shove given our equity when called. I'll post it later and see what it says here

So if I'm not mistaken then...

(What our stack will be if he folds to shove)x + (1-x)(pot size if all in*our equity when called) = (what we have if we fold)

(24500)x + (1-x)(40300*.21) = 18000
24500x + (1-x)(8400)=18000
24500x + 8400 -8400x=18000
16100x = 9600
X = 59.6%

That's pretty high... I guess we would need to expect him to be the type to have two overs here and just be barreling for it to be profitable to shove. If he's the type to 3b/bet flop/bet turn with AK-AJo hands then it's prolly fine to shove. If he's snug or we don't know then we can always jus call getting close to 3:1 with position as well

** I used 99+ and AKhh, AJhh, AThh as his call range against our shove to get the 21% equity when called

That's... 33 combos that are calling, we need him to be betting with at least 49 combos that'll be folding (if 33 is 40% that he's calling with and we need him to fold about 60% I found 60% by 33 * 1.5)
Anyways even if he's betting/folding AKo-AJo that's 42 combos. We need him to be bet folding more to make shoving good. We need him to be kinda an aggro guy capable of betting flop with any two high cards and barreling them with just overcards like KQ-KJ etc. then it becomes a good shove. If not, I say we just call and realize equity in pos

Forgot to show some love to this one, thanks.

Almost through November and theres not much going on yet. I'm in a bit of a rut atm but nothing too bad, just gonna try to close out this month strong as usual. Volume has been pretty weak but I'm not really concerned with hitting certain numbers these days.

A few days ago I won a satellite seat into the Venetian $1600 main event and was planning to update as a surprise if I made day 2. I got a rather early exit instead which of course I'm disappointed about but I'm ok with my play.

Venetian Deepstack $1600 event
Blinds 50/100

HERO BTN T25000 99
Legend CO T22000

It seemed like most of the table knew each other judging from the table talk, two live reg types kept folding to this guy and calling him legend in their little banter. I don't know who he is so I figured he's some reg and they are just joking around with each other. Tables relatively happy and chatty and my image is clean, its still early in the tournament and I've been picking up pots uncontested.

1 limp, Legend raises to 350, HERO calls, SB calls, limper calls

FLOP (1400): 742
Check, check, Legend bets 800, HERO calls, rest fold

TURN (3000): 4
Legend bets 1300, HERO calls

RIVER (5400): 7
Legend bets 2500, HERO raises to 7k, Legend raises AI, HERO folds.

I muck after a few seconds and jokingly say "ahhh, I shouldn't have messed with the legend..." the legend just laughs and another player says that the Legend is Chris Moneymaker, how could I not know him. Obvious troll attempt so I look at legend and say "no way! I guess you've been hitting the gym a lot." Legend laughs and introduces himself as Eric and shakes my hand. I look at him with a serious face for a few seconds. "Eric.....Seidel??" (I know hes not Seidel). Whole table starts cracking up and then a reg tells me he's Eric Baldwin. Didn't know him before this tournament but the name sounded familiar. Looked his name up and he has a good tourny resume. Pretty cool dude too.

Shortly after that I ended up 3 betting him with K8 in a BTN vs CO spot over a few limpers and get cold called by a whale looking player new to the table in the BB. Everyone else folds and it flops K83 with two clubs and I end up folding the river after I cbet, whale leads for pot on the turn and jams river. Turn was the 5 and the river was a 9. Wasn't a happy fold but we were so deep and I had no reliable reads besides his appearance. After watching him play and bust in maniacal fashion a few hands later, I kind of regret not calling him. My run ended when I raised AQ from UTG, flop Q97r, I bet flop, and c/jam on the blank turn. V flipped 77, Adios.

I might take one last shot at a tournament since the Planet Hollywood main event is coming up. Its a 1M guaranteed prize pool so its kinda worth the missed time from cash. I'll update if I manage to sneak in through a cheap satty or degen and just buy in, I need max run good this time!

Baldwin was at drawingdeadd7's final table this summer, you should have asked him for reads (drawingdeadd7 outplayed him on a couple of the hands I saw)

Yeah baldwins super nice guy. Mostly tight/solid, doesn't rly get out of line type of player. I woulda jus called river with the 99 for sure, surprised to see you raise.

Nah after the triple barrel I don't expect to be good with 99 often enough so I decided to try to fold out some overpairs if he's trying to go thin. Hes not jamming with JJ+ otr so he probably luckboxed a 7 or he's extremely sick lol.

I would not make a move like that in level 1. I like your play if you have a nitty image but if you're an unknown you're going to look like some aggro internet kid and get called light a lot.

I dislike it a lot. 99 way to strong to turn into bluff there imo. I would jus call getting such a good price. Or fold if you wanna be a hero

Binked the satty into the PH main, probably gonna play the saturday flight.

1M guarantee, wouldn't mind using my one time for this one.

Bagged up for day 2...

18.2k so only 11.x blinds, gonna have to run like a beast!

Just went busto in 130th out of 1090. Played well so no regrets I guess. Gonna grab a beer and chill out with some friends. Back to the cash tables tomorrow.

you suck at beerpong

LOL this thread...finally stumbled upon it

couple observations:
1. calling flop is probably not as standard as it may seem given 4 way/he's a nit/shallow stacks (cash game & deeper stacks, obv never fold otf) I dont think folding could be possibly correct given that I know the rest of the hand already, but in the moment I would expect a nit to just x/f all his unpaired hands 4 way even on this board.
2. calling turn is very, very questionable on a card that improves BTN range slightly more than CO. I suspect his flop cbet strategy is very value heavy, or with good backdoors/overs. this turn brings no backdoor potential for any of his bluffs. I think a player like I suspect he is probably just has TT+ here way more often than not.
3. calling river seems terrible as 99 is now firmly near the bottom of your range and there's no reason necessarily (without reads) that he has to be polarized to 7x or 4x, so all his overpairs can play like this. As played I think fold>raise>call. After facing the shove I think it might be close to a hero call, but that all depends on how much 7x he can have...and I dont know enough to offer an opinion on his CO opening ranges over this limper.

BUT, all this talk about him being a nit goes to hell when he shoves river. I pretty much said in everything above that he doesn't have 4x or 7x. However, he is definitely never shoving less than 4x, and probably not less than 7x for value.

SO, one of 2 things must be true.
1. He actually has 7x here somehow and is opening this spot much lighter than I would initially assume and you should consider 3b 99 in the future...which makes his opening range not nitty.
2. He is just going psycho with some kind of air that cannot call river, and he's not a nit at all.

Either way, I'm opening up a lot against him in the future. I suspect #1...it makes a lot of sense to open A7s, K7s, 97s, 87s, 76s, 75s over a weak limper. It also makes a lot of sense to cbet OTF, a cbet vs a wide btn range OTT can probably also be assumed although its bordering on too thin, and a cbet/3b OTR is obviously the play with his 7x. So, I would adjust by assuming a variety of trash is in his opening range this situation and 3b him MUCH more often.

I should add if he 3 barreled & called with AA-TT here I would not have learned anything interesting about his range.

Been pretty busy the past week moving out and moving back towards the strip. Happy with the new spot and now I can get back to grinding my schedule (graveyard and random).

November was a good month... depending on how I look at it haha.

At least I'm set up to put my plan in motion.

So I got two things on the agenda:
1. Make it home for christmas and the new years (maybe an extra week or two won't hurt)
2. WPT Bellagio 10k main event (lol)

I should put #2 first because thats actually what I want more. I've been randomly taking shots at tournys throughout the year and this is my final chance at something huge for 2014. Although I would've had a lot more money had I never played one, I'm a dreamer and can't help myself. I've been responsible-ish about it so I never hurt my roll too badly. Plan is satty in then run good. I'll be updating frequently if I can get in.

For me to go home on the other hand, as long as I don't go the wrong way in the cash games I'll reward myself with a trip. Took another shot at 5/T the other day, a grinder chick ended my run haha. Maybe next time.

Oh, my plan is drawing dead if I don't take care of errands today. I think I drunkingly misplaced my ID on one of my nights out, I need it to register for the tourny and to get a damm plane ticket. I'm too careless sometimes but whatever, time to make it happen.

Heads up any day son

Haha welcome to the thread

This thread is great best of luck OP hope you make it to where you want to go.Keep up the work ethic !!

You def still had your ID at circus circus when I left (6am-ish)

Thanks. I probably could work a lil harder so I will!

I looked for it for a while and checked lost and found, no luck.

So I pretty much lost the ID for good, I had to make a Nevada ID the other day. I get it in 10 business days so I most likely won't play the tournament. They gave me a temporary ID paper thing but it has no picture so its not a valid form of ID. My last chance is my expired (I think) passport but I say its a 1% chance success rate. Pretty sick.

On the other hand I've been on a heater at 2/5 despite me getting semi-coolered (maybe fold river?) again on a 5/T shot. Going to maximize my cash time and keep playing while I have an excellent mindset and a Demi-god aura at the tables. Before I play today I'll review the MGoP chapter on overconfidence/winners tilt since I know through experience The conditions are ripe for it.

Play bad. Stacked off with an overpair for 300bbs. Not happy with it.

Run bad. Decide to sit out and get some dinner with some friends. On the way to the restaurant security stops us and asks for some ID. I tell him I left it in the car and he asks me to leave. Pretty tilting, grew my beard out for nothing lol.

Guess Aria is where I'll be at until I get my ID. Bellagio and Wynn already has me on alert.

Sup buddy! Yea even that rufus has 2pair+ when he checkraises that flop. Wynn regs must have tipped off security to stop you from winning all the money