Quote:
Originally Posted by Lilu7
My thinking exactly. The fact that we have the As seems to be v key here blocking most of villain's potential flush draws otherwise. At the time I thought aside from the (3) 67ss - 89ss, he might be taking AJ, which we also block, and turning it into a bluff some X% of time. but so many value hands he can have, esp as UTG raiser: all flopped sets, 9Ts, QJs, KQs, KJs. has KTs ofc but that's almost always gonna be x/ back on this riv. KK sometimes esp w our aggro image.
I checked later (for those who don't know, Ignition lets you look up holecards after 24 hrs bc it's anon) and he ended up having JThh for indeed a pair turned into bluff in the way I thought AJmight be doing sometimes. seeing that obv sucked but I stand by the decision overall given villain's range getting to the riv.
If, however, we had AA without the As, that makes this a call imo since we are getting close to 3:1 and that frees up a lot more bluffs for him to have. Even A2ss-A5ss is gonna be in villain's flatting range here quite often. AA without the As is probably not a bad sim spot to get a clearer picture
One interesting thing to contemplate is how often do y'all think the population here will be turning AJ/JTs into a bluff? And what are your thoughts on taking that line on river vs x the pair of J SDV if you're in villains shoes here?
very much disagree with this for these reasons-
-very rare to see villain flat AWs vs 3b when opening utg
-even rarer imo to see villain just call flop+turn w nut fl draw (+guttor) on a board that smacks their preflop range super hard
-assuming villain plays JTs and A2ss/A3ss this way every time (they don't), getting 3 to 1 you still don't have enough bluffs from villain here
board: QsJc4s5hKd
Hand Equity
QQ,JJ,KQ,QJ:xx,9T:xx,JT:xx,As2s,As3s
80.77%
AdAh
19.23%
he *may* even have 44 (edit: and KK, forgot that one) in his range too...and if he has A2ss and A3ss, it stands to reason he has ATss as well. muck it and move on, wp villain
Last edited by +rep_lol; 04-03-2017 at 06:33 PM.