Update time, May has been a bit rough. Promo chasing is struggling to break even and I've been losing at poker, although lately I've been getting crushed in all-in EV, so that's at least some losing I can stomach. I am rolled to handle the swings and much more concerned with knowing I am a winning player at these stakes than I am actually winning in the short term.

However I have started to notice where my game is lacking. Since my coaching lessons, most of my study has been self study with the solver and working my way through the upswing lab. The way they've organized the lab is that it's divided into 4 main sections: general, preflop & flop, turn & river, and 3 & 4-bet pots. Within the sections there are several modules each dedicated to a certain topic, with each module being taught by a different coach and roughly 4 hours or so long. So far I'm through the general concepts section and through most of the preflop & flop. It's really helped me understand some concepts and get my flop strategy down, but I'm noticing that I'm making mistakes on later streets, and especially in 3 and 4-bet pots. We covered some 3-bet pot topics in coaching, but I still find I'm misplaying them a lot. Take this gem for example:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 112.86 BB
Hero (CO): 203.47 BB
BTN: 137.45 BB
SB: 106.1 BB
BB: 50.02 BB
UTG: 103.82 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 2 9 7
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: (16.5 BB, 2 players) J
MP checks, Hero bets 10.39 BB, MP calls 10.39 BB

River: (37.28 BB, 2 players) 7
MP checks, Hero bets 23.85 BB, MP raises to 94.97 BB and is all-in, fold

MP wins 154.6 BB

My thought at the time was that while I'd have a range advantage here, it's not a pure range bet, and AA would be one of my checkbacks. That's a common theme in single raised pots, where on some of these middling and low boards AA is a checkback as it's less vulnerable and blocks more calls, where as a vulnerable overpair like JJ or TT would want to bet large and often. Well here it's the opposite. TT is actually checked a bit, and AA is a pure bet. At least I got the turn right. The river AA is apparently strong enough to jam, but I tend to miss those river overbets, even though I'm working on them. When I got shoved on, I tanked for a while. V has all 99, JJ, and some 7x that can do this. I know I need to find some OP calls here but flipped a coin on this one. It's probably a colossal punt but have no idea because the solver doesn't even get to this node.

Maybe it would be better in the short term if I jumped around the lab a bit rather than meticulously going through the module in order. Like last week I watched a section on limped pots BvB that I probably should've just skipped since that's not really a thing in these games, meanwhile I'm ****ing up these types hands. I have tried to increase my study so I at least have a fighting chance of getting through all this content this year. Hopefully I can internalize it well enough that these types of mistakes will be a thing of the past.

May is in the books. Overall I'm down $300 playing poker, and that required a heroic $1K session on Saturday to lock that up. On one table I ended up with a $1400 stack at 200NL,which was pretty cool.

While the month started off with me getting crushed via yellow line, I can't use that as an excuse as I won a handful of flips right at the end to get that back to even. So the losing was just all on me (or other forms of variance). It definitely did feel like I was constantly smashing into the top of my opponents range, and my bluffs felt a lot less successful than usual. I definitely improved my red line a bit but that got all dumped into showdown losses, mostly from me making hero calls and bluffs that crashed and burned.
Here's one I have the solver crunching now as we speak, and will probably be done by the time I'm done typing my thoughts.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 170.01 BB
SB: 410.05 BB
Hero (BB): 113.05 BB
UTG: 125.72 BB
CO: 141.72 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.2 BB, Hero raises to 7.8 BB, SB calls 5.6 BB

Flop: (15.6 BB, 2 players) 3 3 7
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (15.6 BB, 2 players) 4
SB bets 14.74 BB, Hero calls 14.74 BB

River: (45.07 BB, 2 players) 3
SB bets 387.51 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 90.51 BB and is all-in

SB shows T T (Full House, Threes full of Tens)
(Pre 56%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows A K (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 44%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)
SB wins 224.59 BB

I probably could've just bet this flop, my hand is strong enough. I also felt it was strong enough to call turn, and possibly river. Although I know I'm supposed to check back some AA/KK to protect against this a bit, so maybe I don't need to put AK in my stackoff range, but it felt too strong and I know villain probably has a ton of whiffs in his range and I didn't want to let him just blast me out of the pot without putting up a fight.

The solver results are in and yep, it's a punt. Although AQ/AJ can mix in some calls and are 0 EV here. The reason AQ can call and AK can't appears to be the bluffing range composition where it's using mostly QJ/QT/JT as its bluffs in this line. If villain is expanding that range to KQ or Ax type hands, then I think this call is more reasonable. BvB is still hard. I'll get there though. There was a good thread in the online forums about the importance of blocking bluffs when bluff catching. The tricky part is that a) knowing the exact bluffing range can be hard and b) if villain isn't doing it right that strategy may not be optimal. It looks like overall the right play is just to bluff catch with some pairs.

The good news is though between my April successes at the tables and some nice promo chasing rungood right at the very end, it appears I will be book about a $4K profit this tax reporting period. Not quite the windfalls I was getting in years previous, but any profit is good profit. That will cover our RV trips for the summer with ease, and hopefully I can just focus on replenishing the bankroll to take some 500NL shots this fall.

Some good news, I realized I had one more day left to play in May, and booked a big enough win to put May back in the black. So that's 4 of 5 winning months this year. June is off to a pretty solid start as well. I am finally starting to be the beneficiary of some fish stackoffs. I still don't think my game is quite where it needs to be where I'm beating any of the good regs in our pool yet, thankfully I'm having some success mostly avoiding them, or if I must play with them, it's at a table with some whales.

There's a few concepts in my game I'm working on. One is finding more flop check/raises, as that was an area identified in my DB review as lacking. Modern check raising is not super intuitive to me. I can definitely find 2p+ and 8+ out draws, but that's just nowhere near enough to combat the range bets occurring in these games. I know solvers are going to mix in some decent top pair check raises, especially in wide range spots. Here's a spot where it ended up OK, but the solver wasn't super thrilled with my play:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 88 BB
CO: 85.15 BB
BTN: 113.64 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 127.83 BB
UTG: 222.69 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 8 2 T
Hero checks, BTN bets 1.71 BB, Hero raises to 7.45 BB, BTN calls 5.74 BB

Turn: (20.4 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 12.85 BB, BTN calls 12.85 BB

River: (46.09 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 33 BB, Hero calls 33 BB

BTN shows 6 7 (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 41%, Flop 48%, Turn 34%)
Hero shows K T (Two Pair, Tens and Eights)
(Pre 59%, Flop 52%, Turn 66%)
Hero wins 110.59 BB

While KT isn't traditional value in this spot, it's still part of a solvers x/r strategy, and one I am trying to incorporate into my game. Where I went wrong was after the x/r. Apparently I'm supposed to be strictly overbetting the turn and KT is not strong enough to make that range. But in this case I followed up on turn, and OTR I figured V did not have much 8x in his range by this point, and I unblocked all the whiffed draws, I called and it paid off. I made some money and managed to learn a bit. I think flop x/r spots are going to be in my tagged hands for a while now.

Next up is still working on a more advanced c-betting strat than just 1/3 range, and also really pushing my range and nut advantage on later streets with overbets. This one didn't go so well. I know double broadway boards are ripe for larger c-bets, but here the solver really likes a 1/3 range (Q hi boards tend to favor that apparently). Then OTT it's using a lot of AK/AJ/KJ hands as bluffs, which is a bit surprising. I generally have not bet putting A hi hands into my large turn bet strat after a flop range bet as I tend to polarize to lower showdown value and nutted combos. Same with river. But the solver has other ideas. So my c-betting strat and bluff off hand selection still needs a bit of work, and it got me here:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 133.18 BB
SB: 125.93 BB
BB: 308.43 BB
CO: 37.67 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 J

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) T 5 Q
BB checks, Hero bets 3.46 BB, BB calls 3.46 BB

Turn: (12.42 BB, 2 players) 4
BB checks, Hero bets 17.6 BB, BB calls 17.6 BB

River: (47.61 BB, 2 players) A
BB checks, Hero bets 109.62 BB and is all-in, BB calls 109.62 BB

BB shows K J (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 75%, Flop 89%, Turn 93%)
Hero shows 8 J (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 25%, Flop 11%, Turn 7%)
BB wins 265.85 BB

Overall I'm just a lot more comfortable with the idea of overbetting and ripping my stack on a bluff. There was a bit of a mental hurdle there before I've struggled to get over. And even though it didn't work here, I think just having enough sessions where this works has built my confidence up to know that it's a reasonably winning play.

Top that off with a good week promo chasing and I'm feeling good. I'm going to miss my usual high volume fri/sat grinds this week as I'll be out of town camping, but hopefully I can get in a Wed/Thur session to practice some of this some more.

J8 bluff def v good. Unlucky to run into it

Nice to see you getting after it and continually improving Koss. Much blessings to you.

Thanks. Yeah I don't hate it. I get why the solver chooses the hands that it does, but I don't think a slightly mis-constructed bluff range is a massive blunder. It's just one of the things I need to work on if I want to reduce the edge the better competition likely still has on me. The villain in this hand was one of the better players in the pool and a 2+2er, and at least against him I need to make sure that I can take the same lines with bluffs and value.

One thing that's been a big adjustment to me this time around is just the sheer amount of over betting that's become commonplace. For a long time I was neither using it enough nor defending against it anywhere close to correctly. Learning to push my nut advantage a lot harder was a big part of me turning the corner regarding my winrate.

Thanks man, I hope you're doing good as well. It's been a long journey but a fun one, and it's far from over. Becoming a profitable 200NL player has been much more difficult and time consuming than I initially thought possible, and the work is far from over. I am thankful that I haven't lost my desire to keep improving, otherwise I'd probably just have to pack it in and move back to casual microstakes play, and I'm not sure I could stay motivated if that were my ceiling.

The first half of June has been a pretty tremendous heater. I have been the beneficiary of some of the fishiest punts I have ever seen, which shouldn't really happen at these stakes but here we are.

Hand 1:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 106.33 BB
Hero (UTG): 254.74 BB
CO: 120.6 BB
BTN: 138.37 BB
SB: 103.03 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 25 BB, CO calls 16 BB

Flop: (51.5 BB, 2 players) Q 4 7
Hero bets 12.5 BB, CO raises to 37.5 BB, Hero raises to 195 BB, CO calls 58.1 BB and is all-in

Turn: (242.69 BB, 2 players) J

River: (242.69 BB, 2 players) 8

Hero shows Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 98%, Turn 91%)
CO shows A K (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 43%, Flop 2%, Turn 9%)
Hero wins 241.19 BB

I am starting to think the small leads in 4-bet pots are inducing more than they should. Given the amount of money he'd invested up to this point I figured he hand something and wasn't folding and just ripped top set, figuring I'd called pretty wide. I didn't think this wide. Don't do what he did

But that pales in comparison to this one:

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 113.93 BB
MP: 92.5 BB
CO: 111.23 BB
BTN: 112.43 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 A

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 2 5 J
Hero checks, CO bets 8 BB, Hero raises to 27.22 BB, CO raises to 55 BB, Hero raises to 107.93 BB and is all-in, CO calls 50.23 BB and is all-in

Turn: (223.96 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (223.96 BB, 2 players) 2

Hero shows 4 A (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 57%, Flop 88%, Turn 84%)
CO shows 9 K (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 43%, Flop 12%, Turn 16%)
Hero wins 222.46 BB

What a gift. I 4-bet jammed the flop with A-high, got called, and was an 88% favorite. I was pretty happy to get the money on this flop regardless but holy hell I did not see that tilt call coming.

There were some other hands where guys just ripped it on a hopeless bluff. Some of the fishier players I play against just have a tendency to lose their minds on some really bad bluffs in big pots. Big pots & low SPRs seem to be ripe for fish punts I guess. Here's to hoping the run good can continue a little longer.

Well, this last week was one of my most successful weeks in a long time, both in poker and general gambling. The casino promo chasing can be pretty swingy at times but when I have a big upswing it's a good feeling, but nothing quite like a few crushing sessions of poker. Leading to this latest swing was a recent rash of my bluffs getting through, my big value bets getting called, and some pretty good bluff catches that went my way. I've got a lot of these hands tagged for a deep dive review,

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 216.96 BB
SB: 353.86 BB
Hero (BB): 212.35 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 A

fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, BTN calls 9 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 3 Q K
Hero bets 5.5 BB, BTN calls 5.5 BB

Turn: (33.5 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (33.5 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 21.67 BB, fold

Hero wins 54.17 BB

This is one I've already dug into. I was ready to give up OTT but OTR I figured this hand made a decent bluff. Interestingly the solver is pure betting it OTT, mostly for a block sizing. I guess it's one of those weird value bluffs where I'm getting called by flush draws but folding out a lot of PP's. It uses A2s in this line though and achieves mostly the same result, so I don't think it's a huge blunder.

I also had some nice bluff catches:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 204.4 BB
BB: 216.99 BB
CO: 107.68 BB
Hero (BTN): 101 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 5

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 12.5 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) J 8 6
BB bets 12.25 BB, Hero calls 12.25 BB

Turn: (50 BB, 2 players) 8
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (50 BB, 2 players) T
BB bets 34.3 BB, Hero calls 34.3 BB

BB shows Q 7 (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 64%, Flop 27%, Turn 20%)
Hero shows 6 5 (Two Pair, Eights and Sixes)
(Pre 36%, Flop 73%, Turn 80%)
Hero wins 117.6 BB

Not much to say there, just that I probably haven't done enough of that.

One thing that has been frustrating is that I've been working on getting my flop xr % up. I've implemented a strategy to try and force a higher xr%, but it hasn't been having the desired results. It's possible I may still be autopiloting calls in spots where I should at least consider a xr, or, what's more likely, is I'm still not defending well enough against small c-bets in general. Maybe this is another area I need to deep dive into to find more low frequency defends. It was something that came out of my coaching DB review, and while I want to believe I've worked on it, I might still be playing a bit too tight on the flop.

It's vacation time for the 4th so there won't be much time to get in more play, so this may go down as one of my winningest months. I guess I'll go study my BB defense against small c-bet nodes to see what I'm still missing.

Bump. Volume is down but profits are way up. I've been on a pretty solid heater since the beginning of June. I felt like for a lot of last year I sat back and watch as whales punted stack after stack to players other than me. It was frustrating. The last 6 weeks have been a lot of catch up in that regard. I'm even having one of my worse runs regarding all-in EV and that's just making what would be an epic winrate a merely fantastic winrate:



While I do feel like my continued study has made incremental improvements to my game, specifically in my GTO stuff that keeps me honest vs regs, the fish busting has been kicked into high gear. I mean look at this:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB
UTG: 396.04 BB
MP: 62.67 BB
CO: 175.08 BB
BTN: 142.94 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 16 BB, fold, UTG calls 12.5 BB

Flop: (33 BB, 2 players) 3 2 2
Hero bets 10.4 BB, UTG calls 10.4 BB

Turn: (53.8 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 23 BB, UTG calls 23 BB

River: (99.8 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 50.6 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 50.6 BB

Hero shows A K (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 75%, Flop 84%, Turn 100%)
UTG shows K J (Two Pair, Kings and Twos)
(Pre 25%, Flop 16%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 199.5 BB

I guess the flop call isn't terrible but how am I getting value on this turn from that hand? It shouldn't happen. And the river? wow.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 104.18 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 147.63 BB
CO: 228.08 BB
Hero (BTN): 146.62 BB
SB: 150.07 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 5

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, CO calls 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (9 BB, 4 players) A Q J
SB checks, UTG checks, CO bets 2.83 BB, Hero raises to 12.27 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 9.44 BB

Turn: (33.54 BB, 2 players) K
CO bets 10.68 BB, Hero raises to 46.28 BB, CO calls 35.6 BB

River: (126.1 BB, 2 players) 8
CO checks, Hero bets 86.07 BB and is all-in, CO calls 86.07 BB

CO shows 2 3 (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 38%, Flop 1%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 4 5 (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 62%, Flop 99%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 296.73 BB

While normally a baby flush isn't a pure stackoff hand in a SRP 150BB deep, against this villain it absolutely was. He could've easily called me with 2p+. It was quite impressive to overflush someone with 54s.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 91.47 BB
UTG: 107.62 BB
MP: 44.59 BB
CO: 89.73 BB
Hero (BTN): 112.77 BB
SB: 101.14 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 7

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3 5 6
BB checks, Hero bets 1.71 BB, BB calls 1.71 BB

Turn: (8.92 BB, 2 players) 2
BB bets 2.81 BB, Hero raises to 12.16 BB, BB raises to 33.99 BB, Hero calls 21.83 BB

River: (76.9 BB, 2 players) K
BB bets 50.27 BB, Hero calls 50.27 BB

BB shows A 2 (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 50%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 6 7 (Flush, Seven High)
(Pre 50%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 175.93 BB

Thank you sir (pretty sure this was the same villain in the 54s hand).

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 95.55 BB
Hero (SB): 146.93 BB
BB: 41.88 BB
UTG: 167.57 BB
MP: 130.45 BB
CO: 234.48 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, Hero raises to 12.5 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 10.3 BB

Flop: (28.2 BB, 2 players) Q 6 3
Hero bets 5 BB, BTN raises to 17.23 BB, Hero calls 12.23 BB

Turn: (62.66 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 20.39 BB, Hero calls 20.39 BB

River: (103.43 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 33.98 BB, Hero calls 33.98 BB

BTN shows K Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 25%, Flop 56%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows A K (Flush, King High)
(Pre 75%, Flop 44%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 169.88 BB

Same villain again.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 307.28 BB
Hero (BB): 119.44 BB
UTG: 58.2 BB
CO: 103.4 BB
BTN: 135.84 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, BTN calls 9 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) Q 6 2
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 14.17 BB, BTN calls 14.17 BB

River: (50.83 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 32.89 BB, BTN calls 32.89 BB

Hero shows K A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 46%, Flop 52%, Turn 32%)
BTN mucks J J (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 54%, Flop 48%, Turn 68%)
Hero wins 115.1 BB

I probably missed some value on this river but wow. I am not sure why I checked this flop looking at it again. Probably a leak from over multitabling.

Speaking of over multitabling, that happened here:

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB
BTN: 144.07 BB
SB: 99 BB
Hero (BB): 103.27 BB
UTG: 42.75 BB
MP: 36.91 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 5

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks

Flop: (3 BB, 3 players) 6 7 A
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Turn: (7 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 4.44 BB, UTG calls 4.44 BB

River: (15.87 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 39 BB, UTG calls 35.32 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 3 5 (Straight, Seven High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 22%, Turn 100%)
UTG shows A T (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 60%, Flop 78%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 85 BB

I remember looking at the turn wondering how we got here. I figured it must've been me calling a preflop raise and the flop going x/x. So I elected to lead my straight. I don't remember calling the flop, but I suppose it's not a huge mistake. River was a standard "let's try to get this fishies stack" and it worked.

I'm off to study. I don't want to get complacent and assume that this level of punting to me is sustainable, but it has been nice for a change, as I definitely felt due for this. I have sort of a bankroll plan for the next few months. If I have some success bankroll building the next couple months, and the roll is where I want it to be after September tax payments are due, I'm jumping back into 500NL games when they're good.

Another week, another low volume continuation of my heater. I decided to take a snapshot of the last year and I really like what I saw. On Stars/BetMGM that's tracked in PT4 I've made $10K and then add another $4K via WSOP which is untracked. My tracked winrate is 4bb/100 which is right where I wanted it.

I don't want to get too introspective in this mid-July post, but it was about this time last year where I was contemplating just giving up trying to be competitive at these stakes, and just casually playing microstakes and leaving poker behind as a significant second hustle. Now in the last 12 months I have made 14K, which is what I was hoping for when I set out. I've given up a lot of side hobbies I enjoyed to do something that, while I enjoy, I definitely wouldn't be doing if it wasn't what was paying for a lot of good experiences for my kids.

On that note, I took my youngest son to basketball camp today. I was mostly curious how he stacks up with other kids. I don't think he has a future as a baller, he's just not coordinated, and being blind in one eye and deaf in one ear certainly doesn't help. But they did some running drills and he smoked the other kids despite still being awkward and somewhat uncoordinated. I'm hoping track & field can be his thing. Until he hits that age though, I'll try to keep him somewhat active and playing some sports (maybe soccer?). Even though he's a tough violent little SOB I think football is out due to the cochlear implant and vision issues. But god damn that was fun as hell as a kid, the first time putting those pads and helmet on and just colliding into each other. I do miss it.

Anyways, poker continues to be good, I've enjoyed looking back on my last year of results and seeing how far I've come, and now for some fun hands:


PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 165.12 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 74.34 BB
SB: 108.6 BB
BB: 155.33 BB
UTG: 67.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 3

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 6.5 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB

Flop: (20 BB, 3 players) 9 3 4
BB checks, Hero bets 9.45 BB, fold, BB calls 9.45 BB

Turn: (38.89 BB, 2 players) 3
BB checks, Hero bets 31.78 BB, BB calls 31.78 BB

River: (102.45 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 117.39 BB and is all-in, BB calls 107.6 BB and is all-in

BB shows A K (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 49%, Flop 66%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 3 3 (Four of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 51%, Flop 34%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 316.15 BB

I'll take a two for one:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 283.62 BB
UTG: 144.33 BB
MP: 110.68 BB
CO: 57.95 BB
BTN: 177.82 BB
SB: 117.08 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 9

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero checks

Flop: (3.5 BB, 3 players) 9 4 6
Hero checks, MP bets 3.31 BB, CO calls 3.31 BB, Hero raises to 14.56 BB, MP calls 11.25 BB, CO raises to 56.95 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 282.62 BB and is all-in, MP calls 95.12 BB and is all-in

Turn: (279.8 BB, 3 players) T

River: (279.8 BB, 3 players) K

Hero shows 6 9 (Two Pair, Nines and Sixes)

Main Pot [174.34 BB]: (Pre 15%, Flop 65%, Turn 71%)
Side Pot#1 [105.46 BB]: (Pre 30%, Flop 79%, Turn 86%)

MP shows Q 9 (One Pair, Nines)

Main Pot [174.34 BB]: (Pre 37%, Flop 19%, Turn 14%)
Side Pot#1 [105.46 BB]: (Pre 70%, Flop 21%, Turn 14%)

CO shows 8 8 (One Pair, Eights)

Main Pot [174.34 BB]: (Pre 48%, Flop 16%, Turn 14%)

Hero wins 105.46 BB
Hero wins 172.84 BB

I almost though I lost this hand for a sec:

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 100 BB
CO: 99.67 BB
BTN: 103.39 BB
SB: 130.64 BB
Hero (BB): 101.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 6

fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 3 players) 6 A 3
Hero checks, CO bets 5.94 BB, BTN calls 5.94 BB, Hero raises to 22.74 BB, CO calls 16.8 BB, fold

Turn: (63.91 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 74.77 BB and is all-in, CO calls 72.94 BB and is all-in

River: (209.78 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows 6 6 (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 83%, Flop 70%, Turn 82%)
CO shows 6 4 (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 17%, Flop 30%, Turn 18%)
Hero wins 208.28 BB

I'm on vacation this weekend so sadly any heater continuation will have to wait a week.

July is in the books as one of my more successful months yet.



I did play a fair amount of untracked as well that didn't go so hot, -$25 on the month. However I played 2 500NL sessions that both ended with me getting stacked. My bankroll is slowly getting back into shape where 500NL shots could start happening again, so I suspect that rollercoaster may continue.

As for study, I have taken a bit of a break from grinding the Upswing Lab to check out coach weazel's class over on Red Chip called deviate. It's pretty interesting, it mostly goes through how the player pool plays over large samples of hands, and how they deviate from GTO. While there's always the risk that pool data is only as good as the time it was taken during, I think there's still some merit to doing that analysis.

Some quick hitters were that the 1/3 c-bet no longer overperforms the way it used to. Yeah it's often the highest EV play in GTO land, but there are some exploits to be gained by going with non standard sizes that your opponents aren't used to. Also certain boards are under or over/folded compared to GTO, and I think that's the stuff I'm really going to try to and use to open or tighten up my game with. I'll probably just use my RCP PRO subscription for the rest of the month to bang out deviate and any other weazel content, then get back to Upswing.

Here's to hoping my summer heater continues.

I think this is about time for an end of summer post. I have played a paltry 19k hands since my kids let out of school, but it's been by far the most successful 19k hands of my life:



I have one more camping trip booked this weekend, and then it's back to school for the kids and wife (she works there) on August 23rd. That means less going on, kids to bed earlier and more time for me to grind. I also will have two weeks of PTO to use in the final 3rd of the year, and I'm looking forward to that as well. It may be mostly consumed by Baldurs Gate 3.

While a lot of the above is likely a short term heater, the statistics I'm seeing over that window are also starting to align a bit more with some of the other "good" numbers I'm seeing. I've made some pretty good progress in my study as well, and am continuing to identify leaks in my games. Recently I've been doing more board texture based strategy analysis and find that I'm really misplaying some board types, specifically wetter ones. That's going to be an area of emphasis going forward.

I am still looking at getting back to some more 500NL, but am not in a huge hurry this time around, and will only do it when the games are good and the bankroll is at a health level I'm comfortable with. We're close, but not quite there yet, outside of an occasional single table session or maybe a soft game I can't pass up. Although if this heater continues I could still get there this year.

Update time. Things have been busy. But I managed to squeak in a few poker sessions in the last month. Nothing major, but I'm still winning. I'm at over 5bb/100 on the year right now and am pretty excited about it. I got a bit lazy the last month, just not really having the motivation to grind or study. But it's coming back to me. It'll be nice to finish the year strong.

Last night was one of my best sessions of the year, clocking in at around 500 hands but being up 8 buyins when it was done.

The highlight was me stacking an overplayed AA.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 181.46 BB
BB: 104.5 BB
Hero (CO): 198 BB
BTN: 136.57 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2 2

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 2 T 5
SB bets 15 BB, Hero calls 15 BB

Turn: (51 BB, 2 players) 4
SB bets 37.5 BB, Hero calls 37.5 BB

River: (126 BB, 2 players) 9
SB bets 118.96 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 118.96 BB

SB shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 82%, Flop 11%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows 2 2 (Three of a Kind, Twos)
(Pre 18%, Flop 89%, Turn 86%)
Hero wins 362.92 BB

Why do you feel it was overplayed? His line seems reasonable to me. Is your game playing pretty tight?

I'll check it, it definitely seems a bit thin to be going bet/bet/shove with just 1 pair in a pot where you're at a nut disadvantage at 180BB depth. I may have assumed his play was bad as this guy was a pretty big fish, which was actually the main reason I called preflop. 22 can still be a call in this formation but not a pure one, but against this player at this depth I wasn't folding.

I think you can call your hand pure at this depth and vs a fish for sure.

Neat, just checked the spot, and indeed AA is barreling off this river. I was a bit surprised. I'm apparently supposed to call with a lot of tens as well.

I guess BB really doesn't have many strong hands here, and all their tens are mostly pure checks OTT.

One of the things that's been on my mind is how and when I should start studying for deeper stacked spots. I'm still pretty aggressively studying 100BB but I figure at some point there might come a time where the diminishing return of studying those sims creeps in and I'd make better use of my time improving my deeper stacked strategy. I'm in sort of the same boat with my HU game as well. I do plan on at least going through the upswing Lab HU modules at some point maybe later this year early next year. After that I'm wondering if I should at least spend some time and energy going through 200BB and getting a handle on that a bit better.

Yeah studying 200bb is good I think since you'll often have doubled up and want to know how to play vs the other stacks at the table that have done the same.

HU would be less of a priority for me personally.

I like starting tables as so many of our regs avoid it but the fish jump right in. Of course it never lasts very long because once a fish joins the table the regs come swarming in like vultures (I can't complain I do this too). I will occasionally play HU with other regs to get tables going. It's not a huge portion of my volume but it's enough that I want to get better at it. But I find being willing to play HU/short as a better way to get at tables with fish, as opposed to just hopping on the waiting list and hoping for a good seat to open.

As for 200BB I think I'll put that on my 2024 goals list to get too. I'll probably spend some time going through the GTOWiz ranges at that depth and then see how I can adjust my postflop strategies accordingly.

That makes sense. I wasn't aware of that about the fish liking to jump into new short handed tables.

I guess it's a nice luxury to have if you can always sit all the tables no matter how short they get.

I think what we've learned is that a lot of rec players play on their phones, and the mobile apps don't allow for table selection, it just auto sits you at an open seat at the selected stake.

I'm a bit disappointed in myself for my volume this month. I've been struggling to find the motivation to play. There's a few factors here. My wife went back to work full time and is getting up early, which means an earlier bed time. I've been trying to work out more, which naturally cuts into my time. The return of football. Slammed at work.

I've had a few good sessions this month though. Between those and bonus hustling, I'm having my best month of the year by far closing in on 10k. If I can have a couple good poker sessions or bonus churns this week I will get there.

I've also been playing a few more video games. I'm mostly just going back and playing an old version of MLB the show. I like games where I can play for 15 to 30 minutes at a time and don't have to follow a story. Those fit my schedule nicely. I'd really like to sit down and play 1 of either Diablo 4, Starfield, or Baldur's Gate 3 this year. I'm not sure any of those will be particularly schedule friendly though. The Baldur's Gate games have a special place in my heart as I loved them a lot and have done several play throughs. I may get to that yet this year.

The good news is I have some free time on the horizon. I have a work trip to Vegas planned 10/9 to 10/16. I'll try to get in some 1/3 and 2/5 action while I'm out there. Then after that my big work project for the year wraps up, and I have some time off to use on myself. I might just play poker, or use that time on BG3. I'm not sure yet.

Oh yeah I also just turned 40 a couple days ago. Thankfully I don't feel that old. I was in reasonably good shape about 7 years ago right before the twins came along. I'm going to try to get back to that again, or better, but that's definitely cutting into poker time. I think I need that though.

Happy belated birthday

Thank you sir.

This will be a Vegas trip report post. I spent 4 nights there last week on a work trip. Overall I had fun but I mostly took it easy and didn't do anything too crazy or stay out too late. I was in my 20s when I started doing these work trips and now I'm 40. While I still have a few wild nights in me, this was not the trip for that. I was back in my room by 11ish every night and got a responsible nights sleep for my 7am start time. But I still took edibles and drank every night.

I checked into my hotel room, looked out the window, and saw this mother****er:



Night 1:

Got dropped off at the miracle mile shops in planet hollywood. I found one of those shops in there that sold 16oz. beer 2 for $6. I thought that was extinct in Vegas. I wandered outside looking which way to go. Horseshoe was close by, so went that way to put in a session. All they had was 1/3. It was a very boring session. About 3 hours of basically no hands and down $200. That was my first time playing in the room since it was called Horseshoe. Nothing remarkable, a pretty nice room.

Night 2:

This time I was feeling Caesars. I sat 2/5 there. In one spot I was OTB, CO limped, I made it $20 with KQo. SB asian pro looking kid made it $65. I was using the tournament clock as my RNG. It said 4-bet. I make it $150. He tanks and folds. My first light 4-bet in a live game gets through. Nice. I end the session up $200. Also a nice unremarkable room.

Night 3:

My co-workers want to see the Lake of Dreams free show at the Wynn. I take my edible and we hop in an Uber. We sit through the first one that played to Space Oddity by David Bowie. I can't describe it. It was wild on weed. I can only imagine what that **** would be like on shrooms. We actually stayed at the bar bullshitting and realized the next show was about to start (there's one every 30 minutes). I forget the song, some pop song I've heard recently. The show was not nearly as trippy. Anyways, I bid my co-workers good night and head to the poker room. 2/5 is available. Except I left my bankroll in the hotel. **** it, I guess I'm just hanging out tonight. We wandered around, hit up a few bars, but by 11 or so we found a cab ride back.

Night 4:

This time I get an early start ready to play the Bellagio. No bankroll forgetting this time. There was a bit more action this time. Playing 2/5 and there's a straddle on. I forget our exact positions (V may have been BB or straddle). I open somewhere in MP with A5s to $30. He 3-bets me to something north of $100. There's no tournament clock that's a reliable RNG here. But I check the game clock on a football game. It says shove. All-in. V goes into the tank and eventually folds. Light 4-bet #2 of the week gets through. Sadly that was about it for my wins. The rest of the night was just a slow bleed of chips and I end up down $100 for an overall of -$100 on the trip. I leave a bit early as I want to just drink and take in the strip a bit. I do find a blackjack table in Planet Hollywood and get about $65 back.

Anyways, I'm home now and am somewhat refocused on poker. My volume has been way down since my wife went back to work and has to get up early which means early bed time and more helping out around the house. I think this is the new normal for me but I'm still going to try to get my volume of study and play in, I'll just have to be more efficient with my time. Which means time to go study now.

Time to review my goals for 2023:

This was by far the most important one. And I ****ing killed it:



There's another $4600 in untracked winnings from WSOP. So it's taken a few years of work, but I think I can say I'm a winning 200NL player now. That was really what I needed out of this year. While I continue to work on my game, it's hard to say how much was my skill improvement vs. rungood and game selection. Either way, my plan is mostly to keep studying and doing what I'm doing in. So in this regard the year was a resounding success. This was what I wanted when I started this journey. An extra $10K/year in f around money, and I got there.

I did get some 500NL in, but not a lot. I definitely game selected in. Most of it was in the back half of the year when my bankroll grew quite a bit. Now with taxes and expenses coming up, this probably gets put back on hold until it recovers more.

I did not get to this one. I have methodically been going through the upswing Lab, and have re-upped my subscription for another year. I'm on the 3 & 4-bet pot section right now, so at the pace I go through it, I'll probably get to HU play sometime in March/April. I do want to learn heads up as there have been opportunities to play some fish and bad regs that I just couldn't maximize on. I want to learn this.

I had some stretch goals:

Blanks on all 3. The 500NL was looking more possible but I got off to a rough start on the year. Also, the 500NL games are much more reg infested and competitive. As soon as a fish sits the table is full and the waitlist is 9 deep. You really have to be on your toes to even get into a good game. This one might still be possible for me next year though.

I didn't play ANY MTT's. I would've played one of the two $1100's in my town but one was on Mother's Day and the other overlapped a work trip. I don't really have a huge burning desire to get back into tournaments at all. I might do some tourney study and plan on playing the May one this year, as it's not on Mother's day.

2024 I think I'm looking at more of the same:

- Keep winning at 200NL.
- Game select into 500NL.
- Play the $1100
- Study some HU and basic tourney strat:
- Volume: 125K tracked hands.

Yeah, that looks about right. I'm not sure how much updating I will do to this thread throughout the year. I've sort of run out of things to say about the game and my journey. It's less of a journey now and I'm definitely in the grind phase of it. I'm no longer looking to aggressively move up stakes or bink a high dollar MTT. I know what my skill level is, what my deficiencies are, and what studying I need to keep it up.