It's been a swingy June but it looks like I'm going to end this month in the green, playing mostly 200NL, which is a very good feeling. If I can have more months like this, I'll be in a very happy place poker wise. My winrate is a quite acceptable 6bb/100.

I'm not even sure if I'll get it in another session this week or not. I leave Thursday for a 4th of July camping trip, the first of 3 weekends in a row. That cuts into my poker time quite a bit. My volume on the month is about 8k hands which is about half what I'd like, but probably what June-August is going to be like.

I had been running several buyins below Ai-EV while also maintaining a positive winrate, which only adds to the feel good vibes. One session I lost an annoying 3 80/20 pair vs. pair preflop all-ins. That one stung. I caught back up a decent bit last session in these two hands vs. a colossal whale who despite his preflop looseness managed to flop strong against me both times but thankfully I ran pure. I went with huge 4-bets because I knew he'd call. Both these spots make me wonder if I'd have gotten away with bigger.

Hand 1 I think is pretty straightforward. Maybe there's a case for a different bet-size on this board, or even checking. I'm not really sure. While it's not impossible for him to have outflopped me here, folding was never an option.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 109.89 BB
CO: 59.82 BB
BTN: 386.47 BB
SB: 197.36 BB
Hero (BB): 104.15 BB
UTG: 198.26 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, MP raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, MP calls 14 BB

Flop: (39 BB, 2 players) 4 J 9
Hero bets 12.38 BB, MP raises to 91.89 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 73.77 BB and is all-in

Turn: (211.29 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (211.29 BB, 2 players) J

Hero shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Pre 77%, Flop 61%, Turn 82%)
MP shows 6 5 (Two Pair, Jacks and Nines)
(Pre 23%, Flop 39%, Turn 18%)
Hero wins 209.79 BB


Hand 2 is a bit more interesting. It was another big but maybe not big enough given the villain 4-bet. The flop was sort of gross but not terrible considering how loose villain is and how many more combo draw type hands he can have. I elected to just rip it myself, and sure enough he had one of those combo draws, but I held.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 109.24 BB
SB: 105.14 BB
BB: 333.47 BB
UTG: 194.36 BB
Hero (MP): 207.79 BB
CO: 199.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 30 BB, BTN calls 21 BB

Flop: (61.5 BB, 2 players) 5 8 6
Hero bets 177.79 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 79.24 BB and is all-in

Turn: (219.98 BB, 2 players) 2

River: (219.98 BB, 2 players) J

Hero shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 54%, Turn 70%)
BTN shows 7 8 (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 18%, Flop 46%, Turn 30%)
Hero wins 218.48 BB

I'm playing a bit more on WSOP.com now which annoyingly doesn't have any PT4 compatibility. I get banning HUDs, but not even letting us track sessions win/losses? Now I have to set up an excel spreadsheet like some sort of savage. The HUDless poker correlates quite well to the Uri Peleg exploitative course where a lot of it is how to take notes on your opponent to gather valuable info on how they play spots for max exploitation later. As I still continue to make table selection my top priority, my hope is to get a lot of the regs & fish on the site tagged so that I can focus on playing the 4 best tables across 3 sites.

Next post I'll throw up some June results.

June is done. The good news is that this was a winning poker month. The results were pretty modest over a small sample, but after the brutal run I've been on I'm just happy closing the month out + 6 buyins at 200NL. I did a little bit of single tabling WSOP and I will say that playing one table with no HUD is quite a different experience. I think I like it as an occasional change of pace. I may try to do 15 minutes a day of it or something, just to build a stockpile of notes on some of the regs.

Bad news is in other gambling. I am on the biggest downswing I've had so far. June was bad, and July started off bad as well with some 4th of July promos not going particularly well. I've been very aggressive if not incredibly reckless in my acceptance of +EV promotions despite high risk. It seemed like when I had a bad one I'd always have a good one shortly after and bounce back. Now I've had several bad in a row. Thankfully I've built up a nice bankroll over the past year or so and am in a good place to be able to do this stuff. But this took enough of a chunk out of it that I have to at least consider variance now before I get into risk of ruin territory pushing it much further.

I'll have to try extra hard to find poker time in the coming weeks. I have a quite busy summer schedule, with July being the worst by far. I just got back from a 4 day camping trip, and we have 2 day trips planned the next 2 weekends. It's fun, but man does it make working in any sort of poker routine near impossible.

It's been a rough July so far, even though my volume is very low. All my June wins have been given back. It's mostly just been a string of coolers.



It actually could have been a lot worse if not for this gem of a hand where I caught a lucky bounce.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 321.21 BB
UTG: 68.99 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 173.8 BB
SB: 169.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, BB raises to 24 BB, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, BTN raises to 173.8 BB and is all-in, BB calls 149.8 BB

Flop: (448.09 BB, 3 players) 7 A 9

Turn: (448.09 BB, 3 players) K

River: (448.09 BB, 3 players) T

BB shows K A (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)

Main Pot [300.5 BB]: (Pre 21%, Flop 29%, Turn 38%)
Side Pot#1 [147.59 BB]: (Pre 37%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)

BTN shows J J (One Pair, Jacks)

Main Pot [300.5 BB]: (Pre 57%, Flop 6%, Turn 2%)
Side Pot#1 [147.59 BB]: (Pre 63%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows K A (Flush, Ace High)

Main Pot [300.5 BB]: (Pre 21%, Flop 66%, Turn 60%)

BB wins 147.59 BB
Hero wins 299 BB

I normally don't play on Monday nights, the tables tend to suck and I prefer to use it for study and blogging. But I was looking over some hands and some of my mistakes just pissed me off, I felt like I had to at least play a little bit. My mental game is weird. It needs work. I've always been a type of person that makes fast decisions. I don't think or dwell on ****, I just act. Sometimes this can be an asset, sometimes, it's a huge liability. It's definitely a problem I have at the poker table.

Here's some of the really stupid ass punts I had this month. I need to really focus on removing this **** from my game.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 111.99 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 116.36 BB
SB: 80.79 BB
Hero (BB): 103 BB
UTG: 159.32 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T Q

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, MP calls 9 BB, SB calls 9 BB

Flop: (33 BB, 3 players) 9 T 3
SB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, MP calls 9 BB, fold

Turn: (51 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, MP bets 14.85 BB, Hero calls 14.85 BB

River: (80.7 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, MP bets 77.14 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 68.15 BB and is all-in

Hero shows T Q (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 29%, Flop 15%, Turn 7%)
MP shows T K (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 71%, Flop 85%, Turn 93%)
MP wins 215.5 BB

This one maybe isn't *too* bad, and I'll take another look at it. Villain is a 2+2er who might actually read this thread. He definitely bluffs a lot and I've caught him a few times, but this was pushing it. He has sets, and even possibly JJ. My Q is a **** blocker for blocking his bluffs. Still though, I think I like it up to the river but probably could have saved most of my stack here.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 108.75 BB
UTG: 74.06 BB
MP: 103.77 BB
CO: 174.46 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 206.73 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) T 9 3
MP checks, Hero bets 4.02 BB, MP calls 4.02 BB

Turn: (16.53 BB, 2 players) 2
MP bets 10.41 BB, Hero calls 10.41 BB

River: (37.35 BB, 2 players) 4
MP bets 35.85 BB, Hero raises to 82.08 BB and is all-in, MP calls 46.23 BB

MP shows 2 4 (Two Pair, Fours and Twos)
(Pre 19%, Flop 38%, Turn 32%)
Hero shows J J (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 81%, Flop 62%, Turn 68%)
MP wins 200 BB

This one was weird. Villain here is a known maniac and I wanted his stack. It felt sort of criminal to have an overpair and not get my stack in. He actually tanked for a while so I thought I was good. I think when he goes 2/3 turn then pot river that's a huge red flag. I don't think I can fold (not without a stronger read) but the shove definitely feels punty.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 167.23 BB
CO: 190.84 BB
Hero (BTN): 87 BB
SB: 89.28 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J T

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) J 2 4
BB bets 15.59 BB, Hero calls 15.59 BB

Turn: (47.67 BB, 2 players) 4
BB bets 46.67 BB, Hero raises to 63.41 BB and is all-in, BB calls 16.74 BB

River: (174.49 BB, 2 players) 8

BB shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Fours)
(Pre 81%, Flop 82%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows J T (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 18%, Turn 5%)
BB wins 173.49 BB

This was probably my biggest punt. I was starting to tag this guy as a maniac but on a second look I just did not have the sample. When a guy goes pot/pot he has it, it's that simple. WTF was I even thinking here. I looked at this hand and nothing about it looks like me. I went and reviewed in the replayer thinking his HUD stats must have shown something but no, I have no idea why I did this. Sort of an out of body experience.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB
BTN: 67.43 BB
SB: 74.55 BB
BB: 104.23 BB
Hero (UTG): 106.7 BB
MP: 71.62 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 3 players) 4 Q J
BB checks, Hero bets 5.07 BB, MP calls 5.07 BB, fold

Turn: (18.13 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, MP bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

River: (28.13 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, MP bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, MP raises to 59.05 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 34.05 BB

MP shows J J (Full House, Jacks full of Fours)
(Pre 18%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Fours)
(Pre 82%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
MP wins 144.73 BB

Another weird one. Villain here was a fish. When he went 1/3 turn 1/3 river after I counterfeited QJ I though I had a reasonable thin value raise. I'm not actually sure my raise is that terrible, but when he shoves the rest in, I'm just never good. I was fixated on this guy just not having any better than QJ up to that point, but the river jam says otherwise.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 79.91 BB
BB: 156.25 BB
UTG: 106.54 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 93 BB
Hero (BTN): 126.71 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 6 K 7
BB bets 7.01 BB, Hero calls 7.01 BB

Turn: (36.52 BB, 2 players) 4
BB bets 25.91 BB, Hero raises to 108.7 BB and is all-in, BB calls 82.79 BB

River: (253.92 BB, 2 players) 6

BB shows K A (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 68%, Flop 91%, Turn 66%)
Hero shows 5 A (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 32%, Flop 9%, Turn 34%)
BB wins 252.42 BB

This one is *maybe* defensible given my equity and AK blockers. But should I have a raising range on this turn? Probably not. I think I'm supposed to call with all my continues.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 377.71 BB
MP: 57.5 BB
Hero (CO): 118.04 BB
BTN: 157.14 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 153.91 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, MP raises to 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, SB calls 9.5 BB, fold, MP calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (31 BB, 3 players) 7 8 2
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 14 BB, SB calls 14 BB, fold

Turn: (59 BB, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero bets 23 BB, SB raises to 76 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 53 BB

River: (211 BB, 2 players) 8

Players agreed to run it twice.

River #2: (211 BB, 2 players) 7

SB shows J J (Full House, Jacks full of Eights)
Board #1 (Pre 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 95%)
(Full House, Jacks full of Sevens)
Board #2 (Pre 19%, Flop 10%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Eights)
Board #1 (Pre 82%, Flop 90%, Turn 5%)
(Two Pair, Kings and Sevens)
Board #2 (Pre 81%, Flop 90%, Turn 5%)

SB wins 104.75 BB
SB wins 104.75 BB

I knew as soon as the J hit the turn here how horrible that card was for me. Although his range is still 99-QQ heavy here, and wanted to at least try to stack those hands. Probably should just baluga fold to the x/jam against this very uncreative villain.


Then there are just some standard coolers.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 103.95 BB
CO: 106.06 BB
BTN: 77.88 BB
SB: 460.89 BB
BB: 119.21 BB
UTG: 104.16 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) A 7 A
BB checks, Hero bets 1.73 BB, BB calls 1.73 BB

Turn: (8.95 BB, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets 7.23 BB, BB raises to 22.37 BB, Hero calls 15.15 BB

River: (53.69 BB, 2 players) T
BB bets 92.61 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 77.36 BB and is all-in

BB shows 6 A (Full House, Aces full of Sixes)
(Pre 32%, Flop 23%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows 7 7 (Full House, Sevens full of Aces)
(Pre 68%, Flop 77%, Turn 2%)
BB wins 206.9 BB

Although I'm not gonna lie. I seriously thought about folding this one. This guy knows I can have AK and he can't. Yet he's taking this massive value line against me. Red flags galore going off. it's not unreasonable to think OTT his range is A7, A6, and 66. And even 66 has to be worried about bigger boats a bit.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 129.53 BB
BB: 116.28 BB
UTG: 98.09 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 89.96 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 6 9 9
UTG checks, Hero bets 9.21 BB, UTG raises to 20 BB, Hero calls 10.79 BB

Turn: (59.5 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG bets 25 BB, Hero calls 25 BB

River: (109.5 BB, 2 players) 2
UTG bets 44.09 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 44.09 BB

UTG shows 7 9 (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 20%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 80%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
UTG wins 196.17 BB

I feel like this happens a lot. It's just like, how do you ever have it here? They always have it. How and where do I fold? 78 and spades both get there, so I think by the river I have to fold even getting that price.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 122.54 BB
UTG: 64.14 BB
MP: 100.17 BB
CO: 189.31 BB
Hero (BTN): 156.8 BB
SB: 92.96 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 5

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, SB raises to 11 BB, fold, MP calls 8.5 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (34 BB, 3 players) 8 J 5
SB bets 9.43 BB, MP calls 9.43 BB, Hero raises to 29.48 BB, SB calls 20.06 BB, MP calls 20.06 BB

Turn: (122.44 BB, 3 players) T
SB bets 52.48 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 52.48 BB

River: (227.39 BB, 2 players) 6

SB shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows 5 5 (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
SB wins 225.89 BB

The MP player is the maniac whose stack I'm trying to get and whose presence in the pot I use to justify preflop. This is another one where I just know I'm totally ****ed on the turn, but figured there's at least a snowballs chance I'm up against worse.

Not shown in here are a couple lost flips and whatever. But otherwise that's been the 150BB+ pots that are really not going my way this month. I have two areas I need to focus on. Just ****ing fold when they tell me they have it. Especially in these big pots. They just have it. Especially vs. the nittier and fishier players. Don't get married to my first reads. And that was my mission tonight when I played my short session. Maybe it worked.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 108.84 BB
BTN: 32.76 BB
SB: 143.05 BB
BB: 37.97 BB
UTG: 125.53 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) J 6 6
SB bets 8.38 BB, Hero calls 8.38 BB

Turn: (37.76 BB, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero bets 16 BB, SB raises to 32 BB, fold

SB wins 66.76 BB

Villain c-bets aggressively then gives up a lot. So it seemed like a natural float. Betting may actually be a mistake, but I wanted to at least put him in a spot and not give AK a free look at the river. When he fires the x/r, I thnk I need to go.

Also on my more technical aspect of poker, I've made it through the Uri Peleg upswing course. The last section was probably the most applicable to me, all about flop check/raises. It really simplified what types of hands on what board types we should x/r with. I know my flop x/r game is just weak as hell. My numbers are anemic. I'm definitely just going to have brute force ramp up the aggression there. It's already happened the last couple sessions, and so far it's worked OK.

On the sports betting/gambling side of things, I've caught a nice string of wins. I have a ways to go to clear the downswing there. I'm being a bit more cautious about my casual approach to variance, but am still unlikely to pass up on +EV promos. I just hope they keep coming. I'm looking forward to hopefully a nicely profitable NFL season.

I'm back. It's August. The kids are back in school. I suddenly find myself with additional free time in the evenings, and I'm refocusing on poker. The next 4 months are going to be important. How my 2022 ends will likely determine what I do in 2023. I like this game. I want to make money playing it. But in the last year that has just not been the case. I had such a good 2021, but then it ended on that brutal downswing. Then I sort of worked my way out of it. Then I went on another one. I tried coaching. It helped. I learned some stuff, but I still had too many fundamental leaks that weren't plugged. I've been making some adjustments, but they have at times been the wrong adjustments.

Poker is harder than it used to be, that's for sure. This is by far the longest losing stretch I've ever had in my life. It may be variance. I feel like it's at least somewhat caused by variance. The amount of sick coolers that have gone the wrong way is tilted against me. But I really have found some leaks. I was getting absolutely slaughtered out of the blinds. It's not even funny. My winrate from the SB & BB is laughable. This has been a point of emphasis in my studies. If I can just get my SB & BB rates under control, my overall winrate should stabilize. Although that's not the only area of concern. I'm making plenty of mistakes postflop. The main thing I'm trying to decide is if I should move down to 100NL or 50NL to make these major tweaks, or try to implement them while grinding through 200NL. I think at least for now I'm going to stick it out at 200NL. I like the fish there. And if I can learn not to punt to the regs, it should be smoother sailing.

Anyways, here's my YTD graph. It's gross. I'm not proud.



My volume this year has been pretty weak, so in terms of downswings some pros have, maybe it's not all that bad. Notice the trend upwards the last 4K hands or so. That's after I've made some of these adjustments. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come. I'll try to get back to weekly progress reports. In the meantime, here's a hand from that stretch that I enjoyed. I hated getting raised on the turn, but didn't see folding as a viable option. Jamming seemed a tad pointless. I figured I could save 40BB if I whiffed. I was ready to just concede the pot despite the investment. Then he checked back. Then he snap quit the table.


PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 141.58 BB
Hero (SB): 122.18 BB
BB: 170.95 BB
UTG: 178.37 BB
MP: 121.06 BB
CO: 118.84 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, UTG calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 8 J 2
Hero bets 5 BB, UTG calls 5 BB

Turn: (33 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 25 BB, UTG raises to 68 BB, Hero calls 43 BB

River: (169 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, UTG checks

Hero shows K A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 76%, Flop 86%, Turn 95%)
UTG mucks A Q (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 24%, Flop 14%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 167.5 BB

Update time. I'll cut to the chase. The last week (really last 2 weeks) has been epic. It's the biggest heater I've been on by far since I went on that big run at 10 & 30NL over a year ago. Since August 22nd I have played 8 sessions, with 7 wins and 1 loss. 2 of the wins were 5 and 9 buy ins. During this run I've played 7700 hands (95% at 200NL), am up $4500, and am pulling down 32 BB/100. My All-in adjusted is a more pedestrian 23 BB/100, as I've been running pretty pure in all-in pots. I am quickly closing in on being in the positive at 200NL and overall for the year.

This heater has lined up with probably the biggest adjustments to my game I've made all year, which is a real confidence booster that I'm on the right path. The last two modules put into Upswing poker that I got through I think really made a big difference. The first was the sort of beginners "how to move on from ABC poker" module. I knew I needed this, and it delivered. It was a reasonably paced overview of how the solver plays some common spots on given board textures. Having it summarized was much more helpful than my current method of trying to learn it through osmosis via solver. The second was a database review module, that goes into some ideal stats. I got this lesson from coaching as well, but for some reason I didn't really take it to heart. But after this latest data review, some of my leaks are very clear. I don't x/r the flop enough as the BB defender.

Next was I'm not c-betting the flop enough. Especially in BTN vs BB spots. This one was also pretty easy to implement, but now I need to fine tune it and make sure I'm choosing the right size and range for the board, but I've definitely increased my range bet frequencies.

I stopped talking myself out of mixed frequency and bottom of range 3 and 4-bets. I had a bad habit of justifying flatting or folding given my opponent and situation a bit too often. While I'm not saying there aren't plenty of spots we can exploitatively deviate from the preflop charts, I was probably making too many blunders here. I've made it a point to up my aggression and stickiness, with little negative effect. It's increased volatility as expected (I'll show some hands) but the effect on my winrate is quite positive for now.

By far the hardest adjustment to make, and the one that carries the most risk of tipping in the wrong direction, is I just fold too much. It's a habit picked up from the pre black friday era where players just way underbluffed. You could fold TPNK on most flops and it's a good play. The good news was I wasn't quite that bad lately, but I was still way over-folding most nodes. Studying with solvers is probably the best way to really lock in those very unnatural defends like A high no draw and very weak overcard and backdoor type hands. I'm not quite there yet, but by just brute forcing myself to consider the call or x/r, I've got my fold to flop c-bet % back down to a more reasonable number. Same with later streets. Apparently I'm still over-folding a tad to triple barrels, but I also think that may sometimes still be the right adjustment, and I will keep working to make sure I'm not missing some thin calls.

So that's been my pretty awesome 2 weeks at the tables. Here's some hands to get into it:

First here's a low frequency 4-bet that worked in my favor. The ranges I know say to do it sometimes, but it's probably one I would have chickened out on in the past, especially given that this opponent tends towards the nittier side. But I went with it, and it paid off quite nicely.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 104.74 BB
Hero (CO): 117.54 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 193.14 BB
BB: 112.76 BB
UTG: 202.54 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 T

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 22 BB, BTN calls 14 BB

Flop: (45.5 BB, 2 players) 7 9 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 22 BB, Hero calls 22 BB

Turn: (89.5 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, BTN bets 56 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 56 BB

River: (201.5 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows 9 T (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 39%, Flop 49%, Turn 70%)
BTN shows A Q (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 61%, Flop 51%, Turn 30%)
Hero wins 200 BB


This was probably one of the tougher call downs. But it's against an opponent I know is very well studied and probably has a ton of HUD stats on me that show me as a profitable bluff target. But ultimately a few things tilted this towards call. First a lot of his combo draw pair + heart draw combos are going to be preflop 3-bets a decent amount. Second, if he did have a naked heart draw, it's probably x/r the turn at some frequency. I figured at least one of his cards was the A to make this play, and thankfully I was right.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB
BB: 135.81 BB
UTG: 105.36 BB
MP: 161.6 BB
Hero (CO): 104.89 BB
BTN: 51.63 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) T Q J
BB checks, Hero bets 3.49 BB, BB calls 3.49 BB

Turn: (12.47 BB, 2 players) 4
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River: (30.47 BB, 2 players) 2
BB checks, Hero bets 19.32 BB, BB raises to 120.83 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 70.59 BB and is all-in

BB shows Q A (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 16%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 57%, Flop 84%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins 208.78 BB

Some of it is really having the range awareness and desire to try and stick to a good MDF to make uncomfortable calls. Like I hate calling overbets with less than top pair and I know that's a leak. The key now is to just make sure I plug it without punting. This one felt probably right.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 104.74 BB
Hero (MP): 217.54 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 192.64 BB
SB: 111.76 BB
BB: 202.54 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A J

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 5 Q 6
UTG checks, Hero bets 5.45 BB, UTG calls 5.45 BB

Turn: (28.4 BB, 2 players) J
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (28.4 BB, 2 players) 4
UTG bets 36.32 BB, Hero calls 36.32 BB

UTG shows T K (High Card, King)
(Pre 36%, Flop 24%, Turn 23%)
Hero shows A J (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 64%, Flop 76%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins 99.53 BB

Although it has resulted in me getting stacked in some new ways, but so far these are outweighed by the wins. I'm making it a point to review these hands to make sure I'm not completely punting.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 159.65 BB
BB: 104.5 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB
CO: 162.32 BB
Hero (BTN): 110.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5 BB

Flop: (15.5 BB, 2 players) 8 Q 6
CO checks, Hero bets 4.86 BB, CO raises to 11.72 BB, Hero calls 6.86 BB

Turn: (38.94 BB, 2 players) K
CO bets 20.72 BB, Hero calls 20.72 BB

River: (80.38 BB, 2 players) Q
CO bets 122.88 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 71.06 BB and is all-in

CO shows 6 6 (Full House, Sixes full of Queens)
(Pre 53%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K A (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
(Pre 48%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)
CO wins 221 BB

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 159.15 BB
CO: 106.39 BB
BTN: 111.15 BB
SB: 69.67 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 13 BB, BTN calls 10.5 BB, SB calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (39 BB, 3 players) 5 5 J
SB checks, Hero bets 12.38 BB, BTN calls 12.38 BB, fold

Turn: (63.75 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, BTN bets 85.77 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 74.63 BB and is all-in

River: (213 BB, 2 players) Q

Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Fives)
(Pre 72%, Flop 76%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows J A (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 28%, Flop 24%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins 211.5 BB

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 106.5 BB
BTN: 168.78 BB
SB: 103.3 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 120.74 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 22 BB, BTN calls 14 BB

Flop: (45.5 BB, 2 players) A 9 J
Hero bets 11 BB, BTN raises to 146.78 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 73.5 BB and is all-in

Turn: (214.5 BB, 2 players) 7

River: (214.5 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 56%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows A K (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 44%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins 213 BB

While these couple weeks have been amazing, I know there will be some regression to the mean. I just hope it's a new mean that has me back in the green going forward. More updates to come as they develop.

The bad news: I only played one session since my last update, and it was a small loss. Between Labor day, some kids birthdays, and the start of football season, I found myself without a ton of free time lately.

The good news: I'm still in the middle of a very good run, and my stats are starting to line up more with what I'm hearing winning regs should be. The main adjustment it looks like I need to make is to maybe fold a bit more on the turn and then call a bit more on the river. I'll definitely go back and analyze some of my river folds. I've had some luck keeping up the aggression. I'm playing a lot more all-in pots and my standard deviation is also going up. It's taken some getting used to, but I'm getting more comfortable with it.

Not much of an update. Here's some weird hands I played.

Typical annoying hand vs. a fish:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 112.12 BB
Hero (BTN): 168.26 BB
SB: 64.21 BB
BB: 368.82 BB
UTG: 105.32 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (23.5 BB, 2 players) 4 8 3
UTG checks, Hero bets 14.8 BB, UTG calls 14.8 BB

Turn: (53.09 BB, 2 players) 3
UTG checks, Hero bets 27 BB, UTG raises to 79.53 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 52.53 BB

River: (212.14 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows J J (Two Pair, Jacks and Threes)
(Pre 81%, Flop 74%, Turn 5%)
UTG shows 2 3 (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 26%, Turn 95%)
UTG wins 210.64 BB

This was neat. Apologies to the 2+2er I wont his off of.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 170.96 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
CO: 107.62 BB
BTN: 56.1 BB
SB: 44.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 8

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 4 players) 7 6 Q
SB bets 6 BB, BB calls 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB, BTN calls 6 BB

Turn: (34 BB, 4 players) 9
SB checks, BB bets 26 BB, Hero calls 26 BB, fold, fold

River: (86 BB, 2 players) T
BB bets 67.6 BB, Hero calls 65.5 BB and is all-in

BB shows 5 A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 58%, Flop 67%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows T 8 (Straight Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 42%, Flop 33%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 215.5 BB

Except he got it back later in the night when the T8s did not go my way:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 227.19 BB
BTN: 109.72 BB
SB: 101.7 BB
BB: 343.12 BB
UTG: 106.75 BB
Hero (MP): 101.28 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 8

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) T 8 2
BB checks, Hero bets 1.71 BB, BB raises to 8.6 BB, Hero calls 6.89 BB

Turn: (22.7 BB, 2 players) A
BB bets 26.8 BB, Hero calls 26.8 BB

River: (76.3 BB, 2 players) 3
BB bets 93.5 BB, Hero calls 63.38 BB and is all-in

BB shows T A (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 69%, Flop 15%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows T 8 (Two Pair, Tens and Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 85%, Turn 5%)
BB wins 201.56 BB

A couple updates. I guess this happened a couple weeks ago, but I didn't really notice. But I am once again a winning player. That big downswing happened right around the new year. So this has been a challenging year. Feels good to at least be back in the positive. I know I have a lot to work on in my game still but I have been making changes and they do feel like they are paying off. Hopefully I don't get another crushing run like that one anytime soon, and I can sustain some of this recent success.




The other interesting thing happened last week. I was playing on Wednesday night and the tables were unusually bad. Very reggy, not many fish. It wasn't an environment I felt like playing in. I kept trying to table select. I did hop back into 500NL. Something I've done a couple times now in the last month. The table was pretty soft, softer than most 200NL games running. And for whatever reason I clicked on a 1kNL table. There was only one high stakes reg there. There were two nittier players that play down to 100NL that didn't scare me, and 2 obvious fish. It may have been the softest lineup on the site. I only sat for about 45 minutes and never got too involved in any hands. I ended up down $150 playing a few smallish pots. This was the one that bit me. I'm pretty sure I let this guy get away with one here but I was not about to call off my stack with TT here. Maybe I can peel one but it doesn't feel good, and that's a large raise. Fold felt right, even though I think these raises are often unbalanced.

PokerStars - $10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 92.98 BB
Hero (SB): 115.85 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 225.5 BB
MP: 162.42 BB
CO: 152.55 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN calls 9 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 4 A 3
Hero bets 6 BB, BTN raises to 24.35 BB, fold

BTN wins 36.7 BB

Back to the grind.

September isn't over yet but barring a bad run when I do play, it will be the most profitable month I've had. Looking at my stats for the month I feel like my tweaks have moved my game in the right direction. But there's still plenty of areas that need improvement. The solver era of poker is definitely different from the live games I'm used to and even the online games of decades past. The game used to be simple. Play sound ranges, c-bet nut advantage boards, bluff vs. weakness, value bet relentlessly, and fold when they tell you they can beat what you're repping.

The solver trend of c-betting hyper-aggressively on flops for small sizes as been a bit of a struggle for me. I need to make sure I'm finding more raises against these bets, as well as not over-folding to them. Some of the hands we are supposed to defend with would have been mostly unthinkable before. I've definitely been working on my flop defense frequencies but there's still a ways to go. I'm on the right track, I just need to do the grunt work of studying the solver to find some of these folds that I can turn into calls and raises.

If I can have another solid month I'll be pretty damn happy. This streak has been a decent confidence booster and let's hope I keep it going. Here's a fun hand from last week. I went with the 1/2 pot bet on the turn to try and bait this guy into going with a bluff and it worked.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 102.46 BB
Hero (MP): 111.42 BB
CO: 67.93 BB
BTN: 165.98 BB
SB: 153.67 BB
BB: 107.03 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 7 7 5
UTG checks, Hero bets 5.18 BB, UTG calls 5.18 BB

Turn: (26.85 BB, 2 players) 4
UTG checks, Hero bets 13 BB, UTG raises to 32.5 BB, Hero calls 19.5 BB

River: (91.85 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG bets 57.28 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 57.28 BB

UTG shows J T (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 19%, Flop 28%, Turn 18%)
Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Sevens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 72%, Turn 82%)
Hero wins 204.91 BB

The books are closed on September. The results speak for themselves:



I am pretty happy. There are still some things I need to work on, but it's nice to finally see some good results. Just for grins I did some stat comparisons with myself at this period a year ago, and it's kind of laughable. I was definitely very nitty back then. I still have a bit of that to my game, but not nearly as bad as it used to be. My stats are much closer to the "ideal" stats according to the coaches.

The first session in October was pretty good. Well, the end result was good. A 250bb win after 2k hands, and running below all-in ev. But in a weird way it felt like a gut punch, because halfway through it I was up 700bb. Some of it may have been poor game selection. I was playing a lot of 4 handed vs. 2 good regs and a nit. One of the regs I had previously pegged as nitty but has really upped his game, so that was probably a bad environment for me to be playing in. That's something I'll have to work on. Although I did play this hand vs. him, and he used his entire time bank to call me down. I hope he didn't flip any tables over or anything.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 106.78 BB
UTG: 128.5 BB
CO: 145.39 BB
Hero (BTN): 337.96 BB
SB: 120.56 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 4

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB raises to 11 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 8 A 7
SB bets 7.21 BB, Hero calls 7.21 BB

Turn: (37.42 BB, 2 players) 2
SB checks, Hero bets 23.95 BB, SB calls 23.95 BB

River: (85.31 BB, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets 80 BB, SB calls 78.4 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 5 4 (Straight, Five High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 19%, Turn 18%)
SB shows A J (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 60%, Flop 81%, Turn 82%)
Hero wins 240.61 BB

And for some timely poker content, did I misread my J4 hand as J3 or am I just a donk?

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 117.39 BB
SB: 213.51 BB
BB: 182.6 BB
UTG: 102.5 BB
MP: 56.23 BB
CO: 209.41 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J 4

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 6 5 8
BB checks, Hero bets 1.73 BB, BB calls 1.73 BB

Turn: (8.95 BB, 2 players) 3
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (8.95 BB, 2 players) 3
BB bets 4.25 BB, Hero raises to 15.59 BB, BB calls 11.34 BB

Hero shows J 4 (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 40%, Flop 28%, Turn 25%)
BB shows 6 A (Two Pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Pre 60%, Flop 72%, Turn 75%)
BB wins 38.62 BB

At least you're definitely not a cheater

If I could cheat I'm the worst ever given my winrate. Although maybe something triggered this recent winstreak...

Damn I suck at updating. It's been a tough month, October is down 10 buyins. Although I'm running 7 buyins below EV, so I at least feel like I'm playing OK. I'm still up and maintaining a good winrate since August, this is just a bit of a mean reversion. I've also been playing more on WSOP.com which doesn't allow for hand tracking, so my actual winrate is likely a bit better, just untracked. That site is too fishy to ignore. It took me a while to get over the no HUD hurdle, but there are just whales on that site that we don't get on the others. Sure I'm missing some HUD based exploits like the ones from all the nitty regs who never bluff the river. But they were never a huge source of profit anyways.

DraftKings for most of the summer has been kicking my ass. There's been a handful of promos with good EV but I had just been getting slaughtered. I'm on a pretty significant downswing on their promos. On the plus side I finally hit good on one this week. It was bet $75/hand for 5k hands for $3K in credits. The EV is around $1500. I ended up winning $2K on the way, so I'll clear about $5K when I get the credits. That won't put me in the black, but it will get me closer. Hopefully more promos go like that. I am pretty sure I was on a massive sunrun on the site most of last year when I was posting, and got hit with the mean reversion there a lot this year.

My work trip to Vegas is booked! I'll be there Nov 1st & 2nd, then the 5th and 6th. I've got 4 nights free to do what I please. I always tell myself I want to explore the strip, but too often I just end up at a poker table the whole time. I'll probably play 1 or 2 nights but I am looking forward to hopefully finding some new food spots or other sources of entertainment. I'm going with 3 other co-workers who are usually pretty fun. Also we're staying on the strip this time instead of off it, so that adds another layer of fun to this. Hopefully I can win some more here so I have a nice poker budget while I'm there. I may try out a 5/10 game if I have the cash for it.

It's been too long since my last update. Life keeps happening and volume is low. But the results are good! October was a down month, about 12 buyins. But most of it was all-in EV runbad. November has been better, and I've gotten most of it back.
Let's do a Vegas trip report. It was fun.

Night 1 I walked over the MGM for a quick session. It's a good little room. There was no 2/5 running, so 1/2 it was. The game was very soft, and the room had by far the fastest drink service I have ever had in Vegas. For the first time ever I had to turn down the waitress when she came around in order to keep myself upright. I remember none of the hands I played but I remember walking away quite drunk and up $200.

Night 2 was the Wynn for some 2/5. I got seated, and ordered a drink and some Thai food for dinner. This was by far the toughest live table I've ever played at. It played very much like the tough online games I'm used to, with lots of aggressive 3-betting. The main sign I was in a different type of game was this hand:

I open the CO with AKo to $15. BTN 3-bets to $50. I 4-bet to $140 and he calls. Flop is J high. I check and he bets $80, I call. We check down a low turn/river and I lose to JTs.

The drink service was a tad slow, and I had to wait a while for my seat. It's still a nice room, but meh, I may not make it a priority to hit again on my next trip. I was fortunate to walk away from this game up $17.

Night 3 was the Golden Nugget. I head downtown with my co-workers, get a beer and burger from Mickie Finnz, and then head to the Nugget and find the poker room. Just like I remember it, uncapped 1/2. There's some pretty deep stacks at the table so we start off with $500.

I play a big pot early on with the table whale. A few limps and I raise to $15 with A3s. Whale calls. Flop comes J52 with one spade. Turn is a 4, gin. He checks, I pot it, he snap calls. The river is something like a T that completes a different flush draw. He checks, I pot it again, and he thinks for a bit and then calls. Before I can show him the bad news, he announces "straight" and flips 63s. Damn. Down $200. But I add a couple $100's to my stack in one of the last remaining cash plays rooms there is.

Later on vs. the same villain. He straddles UTG to $5. A limp to me and I make it $25 with K7s. Straddler and one limper calls. Flop is 985 with a FD for me. Straddler donks $25 and limper folds. While I certainly could raise this guys fold button doesn't' seem to work, so let's just try to bink. Turn is an offsuit 4, no help, and he bets $60. I call again. River is the J completing my flush. Beautiful. He jams. It looks to be about pot sized, in the $250 range. EZ call. He sheepishly turns over 2 pair. To my drunken eye it looks like I cover him easily. Dealer asks me to push my stack forward for a count. Nope, I was off. He covered me and his river shove was nearly 2x pot. A huge score. Despite my early losses, I end up walking away up $300. I love this room and need to make sure to play it more often.

That was it for poker. My final night was not my proudest moment. Those yard drinks looked good as I wandered around and did some gift shopping. I had a 6:15am flight. I remember getting very drunk. I told my co-worker I'd meet him in the lobby at 4am. I wake up to my phone at 4:10. I have no recollection of getting back to the hotel room the night before. I seem to have all my souvenirs I bought, my clothes, and most of the money I started the night off with, so that's a win. I then forgot my wedding ring going through security and had to use the barf bag on the airplane (oh yeah our flight was also delayed an hour due to a fuel leak on the plane). But I made it home a bit richer and in one piece, so overall good times.

As for online poker, I've re-upped my Upswing lab membership for the year. Despite 2022 likely being a losing year for me, I'm going to give this one more go. If I am still in the red at the end of 2023, I probably way scale back poker in my life, it's just not worth the time commitment if the income isn't there. But I do feel like I've turned a bit of a corner, so we shall see.

Not much of an update this week. I took Thanksgiving week off outside of a small Sunday morning session and then I packed my Sunday evening full of tourneys during the Stars MI Fall Fest. I fired 4 bullets in the main event and didn't cash. I fired 2 in the "mini-main" and nothing. Then 5 bullets in a hyper turbo PKO for one bounty. 3 more bullets in a turbo PKO where I collected one bounty and made it a few levels into the money but nothing significant. Overall I got torched. It was fun to take a break from cash and just splash around in tourneys. I'm a bit of a fish there but don't think I played that bad. I usually got my money in pretty good and just ran poorly.

Then today I made almost all the money back on a blackjack promotion, so it felt like a nice wash. I'm hopefully back on the grind this week and will try to put in a few good sessions, and hopefully close out the year strong. I've had some decent rungood on my sports & gambling promotions, so I'm nicely back in the black. I've got some money set aside for what we want to do this year, and my roll is in good shape.

December started off with a -$500 session that included me misclicking call of a 4-bet jam 100BB when I had 3-bet with A9s. Whoops.

But then the next session I came back with a nice $1300 win. It was one of my better sessions in a while. I played some fun hands.

This one I just decided to 4-bet jam AJo as this guy was 3-betting a ton and trying to punt. Of course:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 135.62 BB
Hero (SB): 171.28 BB
BB: 43.09 BB
UTG: 123.5 BB
CO: 94.14 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A J

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero raises to 171.28 BB and is all-in, BB calls 34.09 BB and is all-in

Flop: (86.18 BB, 2 players) 9 8 3

Turn: (86.18 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (86.18 BB, 2 players) K

BB shows A A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 92%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A J (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 8%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
BB wins 84.68 BB

However I got it all back and then some. Same villain here. He was betting pot when checked to almost every time. Easy money.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 135.62 BB
Hero (CO): 128.19 BB
BTN: 76.51 BB
SB: 122.5 BB
BB: 102.35 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 4 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, BTN calls 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 8 BB

Flop: (37.5 BB, 3 players) 4 Q 2
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 36 BB, fold, Hero calls 36 BB

Turn: (109.5 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 28.51 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 28.51 BB

River: (166.52 BB, 2 players) 6

Hero shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 82%, Flop 78%, Turn 89%)
BTN shows 9 Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 22%, Turn 11%)
Hero wins 165.02 BB

Then this poor guy took his seat. He played his hand face up and just couldn't find the fold button.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 216.13 BB
SB: 98 BB
Hero (BB): 250.85 BB
UTG: 101 BB
CO: 103.87 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, UTG raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Flop: (26.5 BB, 2 players) 4 7 A
Hero checks, UTG bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 9.92 BB, UTG calls 8.92 BB

Turn: (46.33 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 25 BB, UTG calls 25 BB

River: (96.33 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 63.22 BB, UTG calls 53.09 BB and is all-in

Hero shows K A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 30%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
UTG shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 70%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
Hero wins 201 BB

And then one of my favorite pots recently, and also one of the bigger ones I've dragged. I had him pretty coolered so I was going to win a lot no matter what, but I was proud of myself for finding the raise on the river.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 54.54 BB
Hero (BTN): 174.45 BB
SB: 186.77 BB
BB: 87.3 BB
UTG: 120.35 BB
MP: 164.01 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 6 6 5
MP checks, Hero bets 6.12 BB, MP raises to 22.11 BB, Hero calls 16 BB

Turn: (63.72 BB, 2 players) 4
MP bets 31.11 BB, Hero calls 31.11 BB

River: (125.94 BB, 2 players) 9
MP bets 37.28 BB, Hero raises to 112.23 BB and is all-in, MP calls 64.52 BB and is all-in

Hero shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
MP shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 328.02 BB

Counting my untracked winnings on WSOP, I am now a winner at 200NL after a really long breakeven stretch. It feels good, and I hope this heater mostly continues.

As for other gambling, that's been going well too. I ran really hot on a few Draft Kings and Caesars promos lately, and am now on pace to make as much or more this year as last year. I did have a downswing tonight as I decided to fire 3K at a lossback, and that failed, but I have rebuilt the roll well enough to handle this loss. I'm up several thousand this quarter, and am fully out of that rough downswing I was in most of the summer. Let's end this year strong!

You probably already know this, but you can request a report through the WSOP.MI software to get a net gained or loss amount. Can specify time periods as well. I do this monthly.

That's good to know. I keep pretty good records of money in/out of every site, so I always sort of know where I am in that regard.

So coming off this recent hot streak I decided to take a few more shots at softish looking 500NL games. Whelp, back to 200NL for the time being. After being up $2500 at the start of the month I'm back to even on the month after a couple really rough sessions where I got my ass kicked at both stakes.

I take some comfort in the fact that it was mostly annoying hands like this:

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 141.99 BB
CO: 105.68 BB
BTN: 161.76 BB
SB: 80.48 BB
Hero (BB): 102.69 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K 7

fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 4 8 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 2.35 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, BTN calls 6.65 BB

Turn: (23.5 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 15.27 BB, BTN calls 15.27 BB

River: (54.03 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 35.62 BB, BTN raises to 135 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 40.31 BB and is all-in

BTN shows 7 9 (Straight, Nine High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 31%, Turn 97%)
Hero shows K 7 (Straight, Eight High)
(Pre 68%, Flop 69%, Turn 3%)
BTN wins 205.29 BB

I don't see folding river as a realistic option here.

This hand was very annoying. I had conflicting thoughts vs. a fishy player here. I think river is a fold but against that size I have a hard time finding it

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 156.71 BB
BB: 117.12 BB
UTG: 260.92 BB
CO: 100.92 BB
Hero (BTN): 121.62 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 7

fold, CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) 2 A A
CO checks, Hero bets 3.4 BB, CO calls 3.4 BB

Turn: (15.3 BB, 2 players) 9
CO checks, Hero bets 9.8 BB, CO raises to 19.6 BB, Hero calls 9.8 BB

River: (54.5 BB, 2 players) T
CO bets 22.95 BB, Hero calls 22.95 BB

CO shows 9 9 (Full House, Nines full of Aces)
(Pre 80%, Flop 70%, Turn 100%)
Hero mucks 6 7 (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 20%, Flop 30%, Turn 0%)
CO wins 99.8 BB

200NL has had its challenges as well. Here was a 4-bet bluff gone wrong:

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 134.91 BB
UTG: 143.26 BB
CO: 109.53 BB
BTN: 107.77 BB
Hero (SB): 132.25 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 8 BB, Hero raises to 22 BB, BB calls 14 BB

Flop: (44 BB, 2 players) 8 K K
Hero bets 10.5 BB, BB raises to 26 BB, Hero calls 15.5 BB

Turn: (96 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, BB bets 86.91 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 84.25 BB and is all-in

River: (264.49 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows K Q (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 26%, Flop 20%, Turn 14%)
BB shows A K (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 74%, Flop 80%, Turn 86%)
BB wins 262.99 BB

The trend of fishy players using smallish bets to throw me off continues:

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 118.52 BB
BTN: 211.23 BB
SB: 213.17 BB
BB: 134.35 BB
UTG: 83.65 BB
Hero (MP): 298.97 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T K

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 5 Q 8
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG checks, Hero bets 11.09 BB, UTG raises to 22.17 BB, Hero calls 11.09 BB

River: (61.84 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG bets 32.17 BB, Hero raises to 121 BB, UTG calls 21.31 BB and is all-in

Hero shows T K (Flush, King High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
UTG shows Q Q (Full House, Queens full of Fives)
(Pre 67%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)
UTG wins 167.3 BB

I'll take a light pause from 500NL while I recoup, but one of my 2023 goals will likely be to play more 500NL.

Just fold way more vs fishes then optimal vs minraises to turn and river bets when board is paired or flush comes with medium strength hands.
92-98 % of the time it's nuts from the fishes.
See the same thing happening in tournaments. When they 2x my turn/river bet.

that AK vs KQ hand is the most tilting one for me. He probably shouldn't even jam lol, what is he getting called by - good luck sir

I hear you. My only thought was since the A was paired that *maybe* he was overplaying an A, but the idea that my little baby flush there was worth a calldown was likely a big mistake. I do think fish on average tend to bet bigger with their big hands, so I maybe got a little too hung up on his sizing tell. Although that tell is likely more reliable when it's paired with a weaker line. Here this is a very strong line, and I should have just folded river if not turn.

Ha yeah I didn't even think about how terrible his line was at the time. Especially since he didn't even need to do that to get all my chips, I would have just stacked off into him. I guess he got lucky in that I had about one of the few calldowns I can on that board. But so often I'm just dumping something like JJ.

yeah overall he is hemorrhaging EV for those reasons you stated, just needs to bet small on turn and shove river - no worries, hand went wrong but in a vacuum you'll be fine

Time for 2023. First off, my 2022 recap.



Not great. An overall losing year. Not what I wanted. Although I have roughly $2500 in untracked winnings on WSOP.com. But this year definitely felt like a tale of two halves. First half was the big downswing, followed by another bigger downswing.

Then starting in August things turned around. I finished coaching, and made a few fairly significant tweaks to my game:



Much much better. Overall winner at 200NL with a winrate I can be happy with. I’ve been playing that stake almost exclusively lately. 100NL when it’s slow, and 500NL+ when I can find good games. But you can see just how quickly a couple bad 500NL sessions can wipe out weeks of 200NL success. So be it.

Here’s my graph in BB for the year.



That bottom at 85k hands was when I seriously considered giving up or just moving back to casual microstakes play. That may still happen, but the results since then have been enough of a confidence builder to give this poker thing one more shot.

So for 2023 I think the goals are fairly straightforward.

Have a winning year at 200NL (If I can’t do this, 2024 will look a lot different).
Play at least a few sessions of 500NL when the games are good.
Study some heads up strat so I can start some tables and/or play HU against fish and bad regs when possible.

Yeah that’s basically it. Keep doing what I’m doing, put in the volume, and maybe add a HU element to my game.

Some stretch goals if I can pull it off:

Make at least 10% of my play volume 500NL.
Play at least 4 MTT’s for fun.
Play in the $1100 MSPT live tournament.

I don’t really want to add much MTT study to my grind. It’s too much right now. But I do enjoy them as an occasional change of pace.

As for fun stuff, I kicked ass in the promo chasing this year. Total gambling winnings are at $64k, beating last year’s $62k. While half of that was January thru March, I can’t complain. Given the promo rollbacks that are happening, I’ll be happy as hell if I clear $20K in that department this year. Still, all I really got into this for was to have an extra $10K or so in fun money for the family to take a few vacation, and that’s worked out well. We just got back from New Years eve at Great Wolf Lodge paid for by these promos, so that was awesome. Hopefully I can do more of that in 2023. See you at the tables this year.

What is the main aspect/leak you fixed in your game?

I wish you the best of luck in the new year!

Thank you, and good question. I'm not sure. There's definitely a few leaks I worked on independently, but a big one is that I was folding way way too much to turn overbets that are becoming more common. Anything less than TPGK was like an autofold for me. And it wasn't just the overbets, it was probably far too much to all turn and river bets. But I also really upped my flop x/r frequency and my own use of overbets.

My instinct to fold is quite strong. Possibly reinforced by my old nitty habits of being way unbalanced towards value when taking an aggressive line, and from my old years of live play. Un-learning bad habits from my old online habits circa 2005/2010 has been the biggest challenge. I find myself having to defend much weaker hands than I used to, and it's unnatural to me. I feel like I'm getting there though.

Sadly, 2023 was off to a rough first week, down about 9 buyins. Although I'm about 5 buyins below all-in EV, so there's some runbad there. I also whiffed on a ton of combo draws.

There were some definite misplayed hands though, that I have tagged for solver review. Overall at first glance I think I played pretty well this leak, just got unlucky in some big spots.

This one stands out though. It was played against fellow 2+2er browni. I am a bit unsure how to play these turns when called. I block a decent chunk of draws, so I figure there's a lot of safe rivers and elected not to bet, but maybe that's a mistake. When he jams the river, I know he's capable of doing this with a bluff. But I don't think my ten blockers really matter as they don't block much value given his preflop line. I should probably fold overpairs without a spade.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 120.2 BB
SB: 129.76 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 80.02 BB
MP: 101.9 BB
Hero (CO): 114.44 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9.5 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 5 9 8
SB checks, Hero bets 13 BB, SB calls 13 BB

Turn: (51 BB, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (51 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 104.76 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 89.44 BB and is all-in

SB shows J A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 27%, Turn 34%)
Hero shows T T (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 73%, Turn 66%)
SB wins 228.37 BB

This one was weird. Was it too thin? The turn probe feels right. There's going to be some 9x in his 3-bet range but not a ton. Or did I get bluffed? I am genuinely curious how this one looks in the solver.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 200.85 BB
BB: 148.29 BB
Hero (CO): 112.08 BB
BTN: 105.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 9 Q 5
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 10.45 BB, BTN calls 10.45 BB

River: (37.4 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 18 BB, BTN raises to 54.93 BB, fold

BTN wins 72.4 BB

And some fun hands.

I got all-in on the turn vs quads but was drawing live!

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 100 BB
Hero (CO): 112.45 BB
BTN: 50.61 BB
SB: 327.62 BB
BB: 271.75 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 2.25 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, BTN calls 7.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 5.25 BB

Flop: (24 BB, 3 players) T J T
UTG checks, Hero bets 11 BB, BTN calls 11 BB, UTG calls 11 BB

Turn: (57 BB, 3 players) A
UTG checks, Hero bets 37 BB, BTN calls 32.11 BB and is all-in, fold

River: (121.22 BB, 2 players) 2

Players agreed to run it twice.

River #2: (121.22 BB, 2 players) 8

Hero shows A K (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
Board #1 (Pre 46%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
(Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
Board #2 (Pre 47%, Flop 5%, Turn 2%)

BTN shows T T (Four of a Kind, Tens)
Board #1 (Pre 54%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
(Four of a Kind, Tens)
Board #2 (Pre 53%, Flop 95%, Turn 98%)

BTN wins 59.86 BB
BTN wins 59.86 BB

And finally, it happened. For the first time in over 200K hands, I have folded KK preflop. The CO snap called the 5-bet no hesitation. I tanked for a good while. It felt like it should be a fold. However both players can be a *tad* spewy but not the kind of whales you are never folding to. They aren't those types of bad players. I take some comfort in the fact that my hand would have ultimately come in last place, but damn does it suck to fold kings and be wrong.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 101.41 BB
Hero (BTN): 108.46 BB
SB: 124.11 BB
BB: 201.62 BB
UTG: 139.48 BB
MP: 126.51 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 9 BB, Hero raises to 21 BB, fold, fold, MP raises to 126.51 BB and is all-in, CO calls 92.41 BB and is all-in, fold

Flop: (225.32 BB, 2 players) J 5 3

Turn: (225.32 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (225.32 BB, 2 players) A

MP shows K A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 38%, Flop 6%, Turn 10%)
CO shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 62%, Flop 94%, Turn 90%)
CO wins 223.82 BB

Just reviewed the TT hand and holy crap that was a torch. TT with a spade is still mostly a fold. 88 even mixes some. And there in lies some risk. I realize folding to overbets too often is a leak, try to work on it, overcorrect a bit. Time to try and bring it back in line.