So this sucked but it's sort of cool that I'm at a point where I can rip it all in on a pure bluff, get snapped off by the effective nuts, and just shrug it off. Probably should've folded pre but got sticky. Good bluff, yea or nay?

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 102.68 BB
BTN: 68.33 BB
SB: 264 BB
BB: 98.5 BB
UTG: 224.22 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 4

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (20.5 BB, 2 players) T A 4
BB bets 6.43 BB, Hero calls 6.43 BB

Turn: (33.35 BB, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets 21.02 BB, BB calls 21.02 BB

River: (75.39 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 62.56 BB and is all-in, BB calls 61.06 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 5 4 (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 42%, Flop 24%, Turn 11%)
BB shows A K (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 58%, Flop 76%, Turn 89%)
BB wins 196 BB

Think this is played perfectly.

88-99 are some other bluff candidates here otr

You should be taking this kind of line multiple times a session v regs though so that would be my biggest take away from the outside looking in.

this is pretty much a mandatory bluff, assuming readless v reg.

It should become similarly natural to you as taking this line with A 10

glgl, keep it up

I'll get the good news out of the way first and say that I had my winningest online session of all time. Since I've been on a good win streak lately I decided it was time to take advantage of the typical Friday night games and go for 500NL again, and that was where almost all my winning came in at. Most of it was pretty straightforward. KK all in pre vs. AK and held. Flopped a few sets. Otherwise there were only a few interesting hands. Both of them vs. the same villain.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 103.5 BB
BTN: 194.23 BB
SB: 187.99 BB
Hero (BB): 158.14 BB
UTG: 104.74 BB
MP: 202.78 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 A

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 8 5 K
Hero checks, CO bets 1.72 BB, Hero calls 1.72 BB

Turn: (8.95 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (8.95 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, CO bets 10.6 BB, Hero calls 10.6 BB

CO shows 9 T (High Card, King)
(Pre 46%, Flop 27%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows 5 A (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 54%, Flop 73%, Turn 86%)
Hero wins 29.55 BB

That one was a weird overbet on the river. He's repping exactly 33 or maybe A4/64. Although I would expect the straight draws to bet the turn a lot and go smaller OTR. Same for 33. This just seems like such a weird attack on what he must perceive to be a weak range in a spot where no value makes sense, and sure enough I snap one off.

This next hand may have been a colossal mistake, but even in hindsight something just feels right about it. Hand first, then thoughts:

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100.48 BB
BB: 114.05 BB
UTG: 203.97 BB
Hero (CO): 372.36 BB
BTN: 108.21 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) K 9 T
SB checks, Hero bets 3.76 BB, SB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 7.24 BB

Turn: (28 BB, 2 players) 9
SB bets 18 BB, fold

SB wins 27.4 BB

First off the call out of the SB from this guy is really strange. I pretty much play a 3-bet or fold only out of the SB. The fish was in the BB here, so I think it can be justified if it was a hand that has some multiway equity that likes to see a flop but, but would be a thin 3-bet. I usually think this is small pairs, SC's, things like that. But it's a tough range to nail down, since it's a play that I don't really expect from a decent player and I'm not sure what's going through his head when he makes it.

I sized up my c-bet a bit here thinking he might have some KQ/KJ/QT/JT type hands. The x/r caught me a bit off guard. What's his value here? QJ is the obvious answer. I'm not sure if he has the offsuit combos or not. Maybe some KTs/K9s? Unlikely but not impossible Sure, he may have all of those. Not great. Maybe an oddly played TT/99? Not likely, but not impossible. But what about bluffs? Is he turning some SD value into a bluff like the hands I mentioned above? Can he have J8? Doubt it. 87? Maybe sometimes. Can he have AQ/AJ and take this line? Possibly, but I'd expect the 3-bet a lot. Despite getting a good turn card, it felt too much like this line was too hard to balance on this board, and made probably the nittiest fold I've made in a long time. I'm sure it's bad from a solver standpoint, but didn't really feel like calling off my stack vs. a range I was struggling to find bluffs in, despite the relative strength of my hand. Flame away.

Alright, time for some reflection. I've been playing fairly seriously now for about 6 months. My volume isn't great, but it's not that bad either. Same with results:



My goals at the start of the year were to make $8000 and be playing 200NL. I haven't quite made $8K at the tables but I'm on pace to. But with rakeback, deposit bonuses, and other incentives (daily blackjack promo) I am up well over $8K and playing some 500NL when the games are good, so that's fun. I was a little more aggressive with my bankroll than I originally planned, mostly because I'm not sure how long these games will be as soft as they are.

My other goal was 200K hands. A bit too ambitious for this year. I sort of knew that.

That said, I've learned a lot about what I don't know. In order to be able to stay at these stakes long term, and to improve my winrate, I definitely need to study more. My studying so far has been pretty passive. I've been subscribed to Red Chip's CORE 2.0. It's been mostly beginner level training. Great for some new players, but overall I can't say I've gotten what I need out of it. I've been mostly studying 30ish minutes per day, going through one of their training modules, and participating in some discussions. I've gotten some use out of it, some preflop range tweaks, some tips on playing OOP, and aggression (I bluff more now). But overall much of it was stuff I already knew, or was so basic it doesn't translate to actual tactics very well.

But I like the coaches there and their approach to the game. So I think I am going to subscribe to their PRO membership, at least in the short term, and see if it has some of the more nitty gritty stuff I'm looking for. If that doesn't cut it, then I'll have to look at one of the more expensive sites like Upswing or RIO.

Then, I am going to take one night per week that I would normally play, and dedicate it to off table work. This includes solver work, which I have never done. I'm going to start with GTO Wizard, I hear good things. PIO is a bit more than I am looking to spend at the moment, but will go down that road later if I feel it can help. My knowledge of GTO play is basically what I have picked up via videos, podcasts, and discussions here. I have done no structured work on actually learning a more solver refined approach.

Other study on this one night a week will include
-Solver analysis of some tough spots
-Database analysis to look for my own leaks.
-Database analysis on the regs in my game to look for their leaks. That's right guys. Those of you at my table every night, I'm coming for you!

My first 80kish hands were about making money, climbing the stakes, and having fun doing it. Now for the next 80k, I want to learn not just how to play a decent ABC strategy and exploiting fish, but being able to hold my own and beat some of the regs in these games. I'd like to keep playing mainly 200NL, and continuing to game select at 500NL. Maybe higher if the games are good? We shall see.

Monday update. I had an up and down week last week, mostly down though. For the most part it was just run-bad though (had 2 overpairs get 2 outered by smaller PP's as well as a KK<AA cooler in there), so I'm not too worried. I've been studying some of the new material I've got access to now, specifically in the area of database analysis. It's looking good. It looks like I may need to invest in Hand 2 Note as it's a pretty powerful tool for it.

I've still been playing 500NL in the right conditions as I've been learning the player pool there. There's decent overlap between the 500 & 200NL player pools but there are a surprising number of both good players & fish that I never see at 200. I got my first stacking at the stake when I ripped AQs in a BvB scenario into AK.

Tonight may be another study night instead of playing, then back to the grind later in the week.

So I've spent a week going through training modules on database analysis looking for leaks, finding some areas where I was making a few too many mistakes, and then this happened:



Biggest winning session yet. It's definitely a good feeling. Clearing the 2K mark was a fun milestone. My biggest win previously was about $1300. A decent chunk was when a guy gifted his stack to me here:

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 90.88 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 156.27 BB
MP: 118.48 BB
CO: 146.58 BB
Hero (BTN): 136.79 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T A

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 4 T 2
CO checks, Hero bets 5.07 BB, CO calls 5.07 BB

Turn: (27.64 BB, 2 players) 3
CO checks, Hero bets 14 BB, CO raises to 38 BB, Hero calls 24 BB

River: (103.64 BB, 2 players) 9
CO bets 95.51 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 85.72 BB and is all-in

CO shows J A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 70%, Flop 12%, Turn 27%)
Hero shows T A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 30%, Flop 88%, Turn 73%)
Hero wins 274.48 BB

That's one of my biggest pots ever (I think it comes in a close 2nd behind the weird $1400 pot I won at 1/2 I'm sure is a few years back in this thread somewhere). I don't hate his line on the turn but I think his river shove is way too optimistic with that hand in that spot.

I even lost a big pot along the way here. I'm not sure if I could have played it much different or really changed the results, it's just one of those spots I guess.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 61.39 BB
BB: 106.31 BB
UTG: 109.53 BB
CO: 212.24 BB
Hero (BTN): 450.91 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T A

fold, CO raises to 2.19 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 7.81 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) K 7 8
CO checks, Hero bets 7.6 BB, CO raises to 34.68 BB, Hero calls 27.08 BB

Turn: (90.85 BB, 2 players) Q
CO bets 61 BB, Hero calls 61 BB

River: (212.85 BB, 2 players) K
CO bets 106.56 BB and is all-in, fold

CO wins 212.25 BB

I won some big pots at 2NL as well to close out the big session. While it took a lot of rungood to make this session happen, hopefully this is a sign of more things to come as I continue to work on my game.

GL
Did you consider buying GTO+ it's much cheaper then PIO and has almost all of the same options. Price is like 70$.

Merry christmas on that ATss hand. Taking that line with AJdd seems extremely punty to me.

Oh yeah, it's pretty much in my shopping cart. Red Chip just released a GTO+ course that I have access to with my membership there. It's just a time thing at this point. I've got some other stuff I want to work on first before I get to deep into solver stuff (mainly probing my own database for leaks) but I'll probably start the GTO+ course sometime in the next week or so.

Yeah, I was trying to think how I would have played it if I were him. Pre-flop defend seems fine CO vs. BTN. Against my small flop bet it feels like 2 overs + the BDNFD is a mandatory defend. Turn I bet on the small side again just because my hand isn't really vulnerable to anything. I priced him in pretty well where he can make a +EV call. With a x/r he doesn't really have any value that makes sense other than a weird slowplay or a turned wheel or set. I don't have too many hands that are double barreling and folding the turn.

Even as played I think river needs to be a give up. His hand has poor removal, and I've shown I'm not ready to go anywhere. The line can work against scared money nits where you can just bomb them off all non-nutted hands with big bets, but I like to think I'm not that nit and would have called down even if I didn't make the nuts on the river.

Congrats on the success pretty sick run up

Hang the banners. Rain the confetti. My MTT drought is over. I hadn't cashed an MTT since probably sometime in early 2006. How many have I played since then? Good question. Possibly... 15 or so? My records from that era are shoddy. But I wanted to play the main event of the MICOOP, so I did.

Quick recap I was up and down for a while, but mostly up. Approaching the end of the rebuy period with about a 28bb stack I ran QQ into AK and a K on the turn felted me. But I fired bullet #2, which started me off with a lol 12bb stack. But I got a few steals through, picked up a few small pots, and before I knew it I found myself approaching the money bubble, although in tough shape. With 89 to pay out I was 89th out of 90 with about 4bb. I just had to sweat the 1bb stack. He picked up AJ and ran it into KK and the bubble burst. I of course didn't last much longer, for a min-cash on bullet #2. So $600 in buyins for $648 payout. $48 in profit for an over 6 hour time investment. That's about right.

Oh, and I also played the $1K high roller just to say I could because I'm a fish who likes to donate (on occasion). I did not last long in this one, running AKs into KK with about a 45bb stack. That field was noticeably much tougher, probably a frivolous use of $1K on my part.

But you know what, I earned it dammit. I cleared about 6K chasing bonuses on draftkings last week. Even with last nights about 1K loss (really only about $700 if you count my $300 cash game winnings) I'm up $28K on the year through my various poker & gambling endeavors. An amount that would've had me doing backflips if you had told it to me back in February. So I'm not going to feel bad spending $1K on a tourney that was probably -EV for me.

That's it for now. My MTT career is now paused as I go back to my regularly scheduled 100 to 500NL cash games.

I'm a bit premature with this post, but it was bound to happen sooner or later. I have suffered my first losing month. Last night was an absolute wafflecrushing as I lost to the tune of about -$1800. I can still take some comfort in the fact that my biggest winning sessions still outstrip my biggest losing sessions, and that I lost a stack at 500NL when I got a set all-in on the flop vs. an overpair that went runner runner flush.

So between my month at cash and the -$1K in the MICOOP I dropped about $2700 this month. That's the bad news.



There is some good news. I have started working with GTO+ a bit, and have been doing some study with it. I'm starting to see through the matrix a bit with how GTO ranges are created. One thing that has been a challenge on the poker study side of things is to take the things I learn and actually apply them on the felt. I know the background theory is important, and that learning poker is more than just "c-bet this hand, this spot" but on the other hand I sometimes find myself settling in to my comfort zone style of play when I am not sure how to apply the theory. Some of these solves do a good job of both showing me how ranges are constructed, and also giving me the right play to use in those spots, so hopefully this will take my game up a notch.

I've been trying to study my opponents games but honestly that's not been going as well. PT4 is just a clunky tool. I've been considering jumping into hand 2 note. One struggles as a semi-serious but still recreational player has been balancing the amount of money I spend on tools and training vs. my winnings. I don't just want to dump all my winnings into tools and training. But I am considering the $20 for hand 2 note. I've watched a few videos now on database analysis using it and it seems like a substantially more powerful tool than PT4 in that regard, so I think I may do that. My other goal for October is to get a better HUD. I'm still using a fairly basic HUD that can identify the obvious leaks but that's about it.

Some other good news this month was I made $10K on DraftKings, which is absolutely insane. I got some good promos and ran like absolute god at them. While I've had some big downswings there, the profit I've made has been fantastic overall.

So a rough poker month, but an otherwise profitable one. My confidence is a bit shook, but not too bad. I'm still a slightly above breakeven player at 100NL+, and I feel as long as I game select well and keep up with the study, I will eventually turn a corner.

It was a good day yesterday. It started with me getting a flyer in the mail from Draft Kings with a QR code for a $500 risk free same game parlay. I called my 5 year old daughter into the room. "What do you like better, Jacksonville or Cincinnati?" "Jacksonville" "Ok, do you like over or under 45.5 points" "ummm... Under?"

On her advice I went with Jax +7.5 and under 45.5 for $500 at +250 and she nailed both. Maybe we should start a handicapping service.

Then off to the tables for the night where I got back some of the previous nights losses. The $500NL table I landed at was pretty good. I was so glad when he folded this river because I was about to go on some serious entitlement tilt if I chopped this pot with the nuts after flopping this strong. I assumed his river was a bluff because what else donks out then folds, but he actually took quite a while to fold so maybe he actually had something and was making an oversized blocker bet, not sure. Either way, ship dat.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 302 BB
BTN: 130.78 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 150.52 BB
MP: 104.72 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 3 players) J 6 A
BB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, fold, BB calls 4.5 BB

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 10.82 BB, BB calls 10.82 BB

River: (38.65 BB, 2 players) K
BB bets 23 BB, Hero raises to 132.69 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 84.05 BB

Although it wasn't a perfect night. This hand pissed me off pretty good. Villain in this hand is very fishy. I think this is played right? My wife was behind me when this hand played out. When the river card came out I said "That card sucked but I'm still betting big" When he shoved I let out a very frustrated F Bomb followed by her comment of "I knew you were going to lose." Maybe the fold was bad? Maybe the bet was too big? I'm not losing too much sleep over it though to be honest.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 87.52 BB
BB: 220.31 BB
UTG: 227.29 BB
MP: 102.93 BB
CO: 117.2 BB
Hero (BTN): 118.62 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q 7

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) A J T
BB checks, Hero bets 2.35 BB, BB calls 2.35 BB

Turn: (10.2 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 9.69 BB, BB calls 9.69 BB

River: (29.58 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 28.1 BB, BB raises to 205.77 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 84.28 BB

Had a nice step towards grinding out of the downswing with an almost $1k session. I won a few big pots, and lost a couple big ones.

Hand1: Weirdest hand I've played in a while. The open is likely bad, but the two big fish are in the blinds so if I can play against them in position I've got a shot. The preflop action was all sorts of WTF. When the flop hit, my thought was if BB calls or shoves I'm dead, but when he folded, I figured folding was now out of the question so here we go. What a hand.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 64.37 BB
BB: 156.37 BB
Hero (UTG): 106.22 BB
MP: 107.65 BB
CO: 124.85 BB
BTN: 207.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 9

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, BB raises to 5 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, SB raises to 15.5 BB, BB calls 10.5 BB, Hero calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (46.5 BB, 3 players) 5 2 9
SB bets 22.95 BB, fold, Hero raises to 90.72 BB and is all-in, SB calls 25.92 BB and is all-in

Turn: (144.23 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (144.23 BB, 2 players) 3

SB shows K A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 59%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows 7 9 (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 41%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)
Hero wins 143.63 BB


Hand 2: This is a spot that probably needs more study but when the river bricked out I couldn't bring myself to fold, even though I had a bad blocker for the situation. Meh.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 76.6 BB
UTG: 155.57 BB
Hero (MP): 119.61 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 132.07 BB
SB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.5 BB, UTG calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (14 BB, 4 players) A 9 5
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 6.03 BB, SB raises to 22 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 15.97 BB

Turn: (58 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 30.94 BB, Hero calls 30.94 BB

River: (119.88 BB, 2 players) 8
SB bets 43.56 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 43.56 BB

SB shows 5 5 (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 55%, Flop 70%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 45%, Flop 30%, Turn 18%)
SB wins 206.4 BB


Hand 3: This one seemed like an absolute punt from an otherwise good player (same villain as hand 2, just different table).

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB
BTN: 52.58 BB
SB: 139.2 BB
BB: 150.43 BB
Hero (UTG): 122.81 BB
MP: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, MP raises to 8.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 21 BB, MP calls 12.5 BB

Flop: (43.5 BB, 2 players) 4 Q J
Hero bets 18 BB, MP calls 18 BB

Turn: (79.5 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 78.9 BB, MP calls 61 BB and is all-in

River: (201.5 BB, 2 players) T

Hero shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 86%, Flop 81%, Turn 89%)
MP shows K Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 14%, Flop 19%, Turn 11%)
Hero wins 200.9 BB

Hand 4: Another fun one. I called pre to keep the deep stacked whale of a button in the hand to try and bink the nuts, otherwise I'm usually 3-betting here. Which was also the same reason I called the turn (although I think raising the turn here would be a mistake in most situations). River when he overbets I just laughed, not that his hand isn't strong enough to justify it, but I don't think that's a spot to bet that way given the action up to this point. Bomb pre, check flop, small turn, bomb river just screams flush. Thankfully I had the nuts. The hand might be worth a deeper dive as well to see if his play was as bad as it initially looked.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 63.87 BB
CO: 79 BB
BTN: 222.27 BB
SB: 108.2 BB
Hero (BB): 260.79 BB
UTG: 125.09 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 A

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, SB raises to 5 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 3 players) 6 9 7
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (15 BB, 3 players) J
SB bets 4.75 BB, Hero calls 4.75 BB, fold

River: (24.5 BB, 2 players) K
SB bets 39 BB, Hero raises to 144 BB, SB calls 59.45 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 4 A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 59%, Flop 17%, Turn 23%)
SB shows 6 5 (Flush, King High)
(Pre 41%, Flop 83%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins 220.81 BB


And finally hand 5: I tanked a very long time on the river. This is definitely a hand I am going to deep dive. Same V as hand 4. I felt there was still value in a river bet but maybe that was a mistake. I had convinced myself that his line up to this point discounted draws and tilted towards weak made hands with blockers, i.e. AJ with A.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 124.63 BB
BTN: 88.37 BB
SB: 150.67 BB
BB: 139.83 BB
Hero (UTG): 349.71 BB
MP: 113.78 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2 2

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) K J 3
BB checks, Hero bets 1.57 BB, BB calls 1.57 BB

Turn: (8.64 BB, 2 players) 2
BB checks, Hero bets 5.41 BB, BB calls 5.41 BB

River: (19.46 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 12.45 BB, BB raises to 50 BB, Hero calls 37.55 BB

BB shows 4 A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 50%, Flop 55%, Turn 23%)
Hero mucks 2 2 (Three of a Kind, Twos)
(Pre 50%, Flop 45%, Turn 77%)
BB wins 118.86 BB

Meh, I had another bad losing session. I'm pretty sure I'm breakeven if not losing a bit since September 1st at this point, and that doesn't count the $1K I donked off on the MiCOOP tourney.

It's got me thinking a bit. A lot of these 200 & 500NL games are populated by two types of players. Pros who are grinding high volume, probably getting coaching, and studying a lot more than I am. Then there are the rec players & obvious fish. There are of course some guys who aren't really fish but I can tell have some very obvious frequency mistakes like a high fold to c-bet, overly nitty VPIP, or cold call raises too much. Most tables I find have 1 or 2 fish, maybe 1 of the bad regs, then 2 to 4 of the pros.

My hypothesis was that while I will never be as skilled as the pros, I just don't have the time to commit to the game that they do, the gap was close enough that with fish in the game I could be a winner. My overall results have me wondering if that's really true. I'm still a slight winner in the games (actually crushing 500NL over a lol small sample) but I'm starting to see how big the gap is between me and the pros.

Part of it is that I've dove into solver work a bit more lately, and at least through the first few sims I've run, I've started seeing some pretty good stuff.

I took a common spot, BTN open vs. BB call. I ran those ranges over 20 different flops of varying textures to see what a GTO c-betting strategy should be (giving it 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 sizes) and was surprised at what it showed. Some spots I'm playing quite well, others show I was making some pretty bad mistakes. Overall I don't think my frequencies and sizings were that far off for the given textures, but I was definitely picking some of the wrong hands in my range to bet with.

Against the fish in the games, I'm not too worried since I'll be taking a lot of exploitative lines. But against the pros, I feel like I need to get a bit closer to a solver approved style of play.

So in summary, I'm in breakeven stretch, I have a solver to play around with now, and I want to get back to winning. There are a few ways I can do this. 1. Move back down to 30 & 50NL games where there's more weak players (lol lets be honest I'm not doing this). 2. Keep going at my current pace, and see if I break through at some point. 3. Reduce play volume even more, at least temporarily, while I dedicate more time to off table study.

I'm going to see if I have the discipline to do #3. I'm thinking of alternating evenings for now. One evening of play, then a serious session review the next day, including solving specific spots I was in, reviewing some generic spots, and more in depth study of mine and villains stats.

If I can stick with it, you may be seeing a tad less of me at the tables. I'll be going for a more 50:50 play to study ratio for the time being. My hope is that maybe in a couple months I'll feel like I'm in a good spot to get that back to 80:20.

If you have money you better off paying for good coaching it'll take you quite bit of time to learn how to use solver effectively.

I've considered coaching, and while I'm sure I could benefit a ton from the right coach, my biggest fear honestly is paying for the wrong one and getting little to no value out of it. As for learning the solver, Red Chip Poker has an 11 video series on GTO+ and I'm about halfway through it. Without that course I'm sure I'd be fumbling along with it, but it does a really good job both explaining all the features of the software and how to use it to study spots. The biggest problem I'm running into right now is I'm using a cheap desktop that doesn't have the RAM needed to run more complex solves. I'm fixing that soon.

You most likely have leaks in your strategy that you have no idea are there and is slowly killing your winrate. That's not a shot at you. We(small stakes) all do. I agree that coaching will be a far better use of your time then solving how to properly play BBvBTN or whatever.

There's a couple cheaper options in the coaching forum (Brokenstars and Knaxis) that are good value, I got coaching from BS myself, and I can recommend a couple high stakes pros that I've worked with that are about double the price but well worth it.

time = money

would definitely drop a few grand+~ on coaching etc just in the short term

even if you’re just mixing 500nl in it’s a no brainer

have to think about the time saved, it’s likely you’re underestimating the time required to close the gap.

in the same way many think about chips in bb when they play it’s probably more constructive to think of these investments in terms of buyins

Fair enough. I've always been a bit of a self learner in that I retain and apply stuff better when I've taken the time to get there on my own rather than have it taught to me. But I'm not naive enough to think that I can't benefit from coaching, possibly tremendously so. There's actually one guy who I have considered (charges $150/hr). But at my lower play volume I need to carefully consider how much I want to spend on my education. My actual at table winnings this year are like $4K. I know rakeback and promo money counts as well (I've made about 8K on stars this year) but man. I'm just concerned about making an expensive mistake. I just want to make sure I get the money out of it. Will it improve my winrate enough to justify the expense? If so, I'm all for it.

I'm thinking about it next year. I've been making a decent side income with sports betting this year. Much more than I thought, and much more than with poker. I'm in the process of pulling some of that money out, but I've got several deposit/first bet bonuses to clear to get an even bigger chunk. Early next year that should stabilize a bit, and I'll have a better idea where I'm at financially. If I'm still struggling at 200 & 500NL (and I probably will be) I'll look at taking 2 to 3k of that and spending it on some new toys like a H2N subscription, maybe a more premium training site, and some 1-on-1 coaching.

How do you make money from sports betting?

So when online gambling got legalized in Michigan this year, about 8 or 9 online casinos opened up. Almost all of them offer an initial risk free first bet option of some type, which can be hedged for a significant profit. Then there are just tons of daily promotions for casino games and sports bets that are +EV. There's a few hundred a week in EV out there right now. It's a tap that could get shut off at any minute, but at least for the time being, I'm hitting every promotion as hard as I can. I had a really huge run at Draft Kings in the last month and I'm going to take a decent chunk of that money and use it to grind the first bet promotions at other sites.

Do you mind explaining the hedge strategy on a risk free bet? I see that promotion everywhere and it looks tempting but it doesn't seem worth it because if you lose you get the money back as a credit and you have to gamble it again and it's very likely you just lose again but maybe I'm missing something. Haven't really dove deep into it but it is an intriguing promotion.

Sure. A bit of background first. A basic sports arbitrage is that if a moneyline at one site is +200 on one side of a game and -195 at another, you can bet both sides of the game for a profit. Anytime the + number is bigger than the -, there's a guaranteed profit opportunity. Now this doesn't happen very often because it means one book really ****ed up the line somehow.

The downside to free bets is that they don't return the wager amount when they win, only the winnings. That does a unique thing to the EV of them. You want to bet them on longshots with high payouts. A math example:

Let's say you have a $100 free-bet, and bet it on a line with no vig. So a point spread pays out even money.

+100, wins 50%. EV = 100*0.5 = $50 in EV.
+200 wins 33%. EV = 200*0.33 = $66 in EV.
+300 wins 25%. EV = 300 *0.25 = $75 in EV.

So right there we see that when using free bets, we get better EV by betting on the longshots. The obvious downside is that longshots don't win very often, and we also don't know the true house edge on the bet either. Generally the longer the odds the greater the vig. We can try and calculate it, but that's not that important for this example.

So we can combine these two concepts, and find lines where we can guarantee a decent return (usually greater than 70%, sometimes 80% or higher) by betting both sides of the game between books. While the lines don't overlap to create a true arb, they are close and give us pretty good value.

Example from tonight:

On DraftKings where I have a $100 free-bet, the Pittsburgh Penguins are +575 on a -1.5 spread. The TB Lightning on Bet Rivers are -715 on +1.5 spread. So the lines don't overlap, but they are pretty close.

So I bet the $100 free bet on Pitt. If it wins, I win $575. Then on Bet Rivers I bet $504 on TB at -715. If that bet wins, I win $70.49. So no matter what the outcome of the game is, I win either $70.49 or $71, for a roughly 71% return on my free-bet. There's websites (usually require a paid subscription) that will help find these overlapping lines for you. They often are found on some of the "alternate" point spreads on games that I otherwise wouldn't dig into.

It's quite possible that we might be giving up some EV from doing this, since we are paying the vig when our cash bet wins. But also the line differential may cover for that. Either way, it's guaranteed money vs. sitting on a longshot.

You can do similar things with risk free bets and profit boosts to guarantee a profit on your bet while giving up very little if any EV.

Of course the real challenge is to actually get the promotional bets without giving up too much value. For example last night draft kings ran a promo of get a $100 free bet for every $2500 bet on blackjack, up to 10 free bets. The house edge on perfect strat blackjack is 0.4%. So for every $2500 bet the expected loss is only $10 for a $100 free bet. Assuming 70% return on free bet, that's $60 in value right there. Times ten for $600! Now the downside was I ran like garbage, down about $1500 instead of the expected $100 over $25K of blackjack, so there's still some gamble to it. But with all the promotions being offered out there right now, there's tons of money to be made.

Man that was a very interesting read thanks for the detailed response. Definitely some skill in bonus hunting. Props to you for capitalizing on it.