Friend if a friend is playing a huge private game in SoCal

Game starts off as 25/50 PLO and turns into 100/200 PLO

Hero has 99xx

Flop 977

Not sure on flop action

Turn 9774r and all the money goes in (someone 5! Shoves turn)

Hero loses to villains 77

What are the chances this is rigged given that its a home game ?

Story seems off?

In isolation not much. But be cautious. I've been cheated in past and I had some clues I didn't act on.

honestly without knowing anything about who was playing in it, who was dealing, etc. i have no idea.

however I can say for sure he overplayed his hand vs. 95% of villains I've encountered at 5/10+ PLO.

Oh I have another story from last session I wanted to share. Same villain who's piss-drunk and got me to ship it vs. his "blind" double suited aces.

Preflop action, villain mandatory straddles to $10, a guy who has literally been asleep for the past 2 hours wakes up and sleepily limps a hand, I limp behind. I have A753. Villain reluctantly checks because he says he really doesn't want to see a flop. More on this in a bit.

Flop Q52, pot $35
Villain across the table says "fk that's why I didn't want to see a flop" and holds his hand up to show the entire table he had 4 red cards, I think I see AQ94 but not 100% sure, and he pays a guy $100 who he has a black/red sidebet with. Villain then quickly leads for $25. Sleepy instacalls, and I'm like dude don't show me your hand, I have a monster I have to raise this and make it $120. Villain calls, sleepy folds.

Turn 9, pot $300
Villain checks, I'm not totally sure but I think he made top two so I check.

River K, pot $300
Villain checks, this guy plays kind of erratic but I don't think he calls my river bet with Q9xx here so I throw out $200. He goes into the tank... says "I have a set. I will fold if you give me $100 back" I tell him he can do whatever he wants to do... he thinks awhile longer while unsuccessfully trying to get me to say more. Finally he looks like he's about to level himself into calling, then I tell him "alright fine you can have $100 back" and throw him a $100 while simultaneously mucking my hand. He laughs as I get shipped the pot and says "you fker I knew I had you beat" and shows his hand to confirm that he indeed just have AQ94 with 4 diamonds.

So I made almost no profit that hand (but potentially dodged a bullet). Regardless of results/profitability, just an example of why live poker will always be more fun than online poker.

If player 1 has 99xx and player 2 has 77xx it will take 4,000 flops for that to happen.

About 1 in 3,000 if you give each player 4 cards that don't hurt the other's chances - 99TJ vs. 7765.

About 1 in 7,500 if you give 77xx a 9 - 99TJ vs. 7789.

I'll talk some more about the home game topic too.

Interesting that it comes up in this thread because a couple regs recently asked me some stuff about what I thought about home games. However I'm the last person to ask about that, as I've only played two 5/5 sessions with the same crowd hosted by a filthy rich Hollywood star where the rake was lower than any casino because it obviously made no difference to him whether he made $3/hand or $10/hand from his game. Super stand-up game.

I have no experience, nor do I ever really want any, in any REMOTELY questionable home game. Here's my take though:

Your EV may be higher despite the rake due to the players being sooooo bad. However the rake being so high is a significant factor, limon was telling me that some grinders kept track of the rake in J's game one night and the total came to $80k. So in other words, every player individually is paying an average of $10k to even be at the table. So you have to expect to win over $10k pre-rake per night to begin with, all other factors aside. Obviously this is very doable in many lineups; the bad part is...

Security. Despite the fact that these games are 99.5% safe, there's still that 0.1% chance you won't get paid your winnings simply because no one is capable of doing so, that 0.1% chance you'll get robbed out of your chipstack/extra drop/etc., that 0.1% chance the game gets robbed at gunpoint, that 0.1% the deck gets rigged for a cooler/players secretly collude against you, and that 0.1% chance that something gets fk'd up in a big pot and the host makes a horrific ruling against you. For me it's just not worth the trouble to even have to have those things on my mind, so I just avoid home games.

Daniel alai or however you say his name was supposed to be there and I think he was vill in said hand

don't think I know who that is, i know like 5+ dans that play 5/10 PLO+ but not sure any will play quite that big

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Alaei

You know he's legit if he's got his own wiki article haha. He was on the early seasons of HSP I believe.

Coolers happen, unless there's something else fishy going on, no reason to suspect cheating just based on one long shot hand.

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Him being well known doesn't mean crap, I've personally watched Kenny Tran shoot angles in my 5-5 PLO game at Bicycle Casino (in no way am I suggesting he would ever cheat with a cold deck or something like that, it's on a different level but yea, you get my point)

And I mean...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_lederer

That wasn't the point. Aesah wasn't sure who DHCG was talking about so I linked it.

+1

I don't like the river bluff in the hand you posted. In that type of spot I think it's a triple or give up depending on villain.

AP If you check back turn maybe you could bluff a 6/4 river. When you check back turn if your going to bluff a K river I would bet small to fold out Q***/JJ-66:ss. I would never expect villain to fold 2 pairs for any bet size.

good players don't fold there, but most live PLO players including this guy simply cannot call river bets with less than top two, doesn't really matter what I rep

While you might say, wow it's very unlikely he has quad sevens when I have nines full, you have to ask yourself what is he putting all his money in with on this kind of board? As Aseah said the nines full over played his hand for 5 bets.

In a 10-10-20 NLH game a couple of years ago I lost with my flopped set over lower set to quads made on the turn/river in holdem, twice to the same guy in a span of about 600 hands. For significant money both times and I never ever felt I was cold decked (did feel a little snakebit).

Wow so today I had a REVELATION that maybe I do like PLO more than NLHE. I played mostly NLHE today, only managed to put in 2 hours before I felt like going home.

Won about 15 pots total with zero showdowns (mostly run of good cards, like 10 were legit value bets). Not too many interesting hands at all, got 3-bet twice and 4-bet both times. First hand I play at the table, I got 3-bet squeezed to 24bb by LATB Sujit and I jammed 76bb total with TT and showed after he folded, second time I got 3-bet to 14bb with 130bb behind, I 4-bet to 34bb (sizing too big?) with A7s and villain quickly folded.

Lost a hand where a weak ABC player straddles to $20 on the button, loose passive guy calls, I make it $140 with K5s for the obvious steal attempt both call unfortunately, flop comes J44, I cbet slightly under 1/2 pot at $225, BTN raises to $700, other guy folds, I fold and he shows a 4. PRETTY PROFITABLE SPOT LOL, another prime example of why live poker > online poker.

Up $215 in 2 hours with zero showdowns despite picking up some good value hands. Not sure if results oriented but perhaps I fastplayed my hands too much with a tight/winning image, oh well.

LA total: $74335, 572 hours.

Few more stories:

Marvin is trolling me telling me to order the corned beef special, Abe gives off a really suspicious laugh so I decide to order something else instead. Waitress somehow mishears and brings me the corned beef instead, Marvin laughs at me and is like dude don't eat it it's disgusting. I'm like meh I'll try it, it's alright, I eat a few bites and decide to wait for what I actually ordered. Marvin says "pffft i thought you said it was alright, finish it you pussy!" and informs me that he finished the entire dish despite saying it was absolutely disgusting.

Saw multiple of Bike's 5/10 young reg crowd opting not to play my NLHE game with a seat open with 5 ridiculously bad fish where there were only 3 players who could even remotely be considered decent. And people say poker is dead

Also had a guy come up to me today and tell me he liked my thread. I love it when this happens, makes me really happy and I find it hilarious/awesome that anyone would ever be intimidated to talk to me.

4b sizing looks good. Juggernaut of a villain noticed you subtly almost fold the hand pf and then raise. Beastly villain 3bet with 52o accordingly. When you 4bet majestic villain forgot he was a juggernaut beastly majestic force and opted to not risk 116bb to pick up 48bb with a chance of getting 52o AIPF when called against someone who he hasn't developed a HUD on his 4b tendencies other than he 4bets wide for value (TT earlier) so he may not be as polarized as most. He decided that there's a chance that he misintrepted the PF hesitation but he shouldve realized that is unlikely given his beastliness. btw he tells me to tell you nh

They seen your WR and they scuuurrrred.

Awesome thread!! Keep the stories and HH coming!

Best of luck at the tables

Lol, On a serious note though most grinders tend to be towards one of two extremes. They are either really predatory and end up hurting themselves because it bothers rec players or they leave massive amounts of money on the table (playing higher when the games aren't good/passing up profitable opportunities out of sheer laziness).

Were you referring to the game you sat in after PLO broke? If so, in that game you were the 3rd best player at the table and its pompous to assume people dont sit because of you. It could be for a myriad of reasons.

I don't think he was implying that they didn't sit because of him. I think he was implying "lol live regs" have horrible game selection. They missed a good opportunity to make money.

actually, i was assuming they didn't sit because of you. LOL. not sure why you would assume I thought it was because of me. Also, what classification are you using for best player, winrate? Seems vague.

However, you can't tell me that wouldn't have been a profitable lineup for Jeremy etc. who was sitting by himself at an empty table diagonal from us. The poker is dead comment meant that the game is so freaking amazing on average that a solid reg would pass up a table with 5/8 fish simply because there are some decent players at it, to me that's just insanity.

I'll need to pay more attention to the live tells. Nice pickup