Just quit my 6 figure job to play live poker - Page 219 - Poker Blogs and Goals -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

I agree with Bip! here. Just based on my experience (it's kind of long in terms of years being an OMC) I can believe a sun runner for a year, very unlikely over two years, NFW over 3 years. But of course YMMV. To avoid deraling we all agree there are several ways to make money in poker as a losing player.

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08-28-2015 , 04:27 PM

#5453

jrr63

The Situation

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 3,465

And to add a qualifier - I assume we are talking about someone who plays cash games (live or on-line) not someone who binks a tournament score.

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08-28-2015 , 04:28 PM

#5454

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

A high variance game would obviously help the odds too.

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08-28-2015 , 04:29 PM

#5455

jrr63

The Situation

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 3,465

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

A high variance game would obviously help the odds too.

On the NFW side :-)

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08-28-2015 , 05:26 PM

#5456

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

Yea I am not really sure. I do personally know a couple extremely weak rec players (~100% VPIP, no idea of some basic poker concepts) who I am fairly certain have won quite a lot of money over 1 year+ timeframe, although the evidence is really just player testimonials- including my own- which aren't super accurate or anything because no one tracks someone else's cashouts that closely

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08-28-2015 , 05:27 PM

#5457

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker

What about an instructor at a poker school? That should do the trick (or do they not have poker schools where you are at?)

Jeez how much do you guys think I get paid

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08-28-2015 , 05:34 PM

#5458

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

Honestly it really just depends what we think a realistic std for bb/100 is for a high-variance losing player. Then you can easily see probabilities in a variance calculator.

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08-28-2015 , 05:41 PM

#5459

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

Honestly it really just depends what we think a realistic std for bb/100 is for a high-variance losing player. Then you can easily see probabilities in a variance calculator.

Right - which is why I called BS on 3-years

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08-28-2015 , 08:10 PM

#5460

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

So real world example:

I am a high variance player in a high variance game. I have a stdev of $1650/hr (this is >> than other players in the game who I have compared to).

A good WR in this game is $100/hr.

For a player with a -$10/hr expectation to be up $400k after 4000 hrs is > 4 sigma outlier. That is < 1 in 30,000 chance.

With these stats, the last hour for which he is within 3 sigma is 200k @ 2000 hrs. That is like 1 in 600 chance.

Yes variance is big, but it is also exaggerated when talking about multi-year heaters.

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08-28-2015 , 08:41 PM

#5461

pokerodox

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,889

Gotta go with Aesah on this one, as follows:
200k is about the right number for "supported themselves for 3 years." Prolly should even reduce that to $90k for extreme case, but easily down to $150k for 3 years' support. Next, WR and total hours could be played with to get to the middle ground $150k. Not sure if $50/hour over 3000 hours is more likely or $150/hour after 1000 hours, prolly the latter.

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08-28-2015 , 09:20 PM

#5462

deadpeddler

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 520

Aesah, what are the options for midstakes 08, 8/16-20/40 Limit and $300-$1000plo8/BigO around LA?

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08-29-2015 , 12:03 AM

#5463

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

yea bip wtf, a "solid WR" needs to be $100/hr? What's the probability that someone wins at $50/hr with those numbers over 3000 hours? I think that's reasonable enough to "support yourself"

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08-29-2015 , 12:36 AM

#5464

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Yes - that is pretty close to 1% you mentioned. I concede.

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08-29-2015 , 02:14 AM

#5465

NeverLosesAtPoker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 4,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

Jeez how much do you guys think I get paid

LoL I was talking about a real poker school...like one where you go to a classroom, not some University of Phoenix deal. Why does everything in your thread always have to be about you?

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08-29-2015 , 02:30 AM

#5466

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

It's not, it's all about you!

Also damn bip, why so many stds

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08-29-2015 , 02:58 AM

#5467

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

It's not, it's all about you!

Also damn bip, why so many stds

She was worth it

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09-02-2015 , 09:04 PM

#5468

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

my neck has been hurting for several days now when i failed a backflip on a trampoline

would have walked it off a few years ago, starting to feel old for real

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09-02-2015 , 09:08 PM

#5469

jrr63

The Situation

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 3,465

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

my neck has been hurting for several days now when i failed a backflip on a trampoline

would have walked it off a few years ago, starting to feel old for real

Trust me, it just gets worse

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09-02-2015 , 09:31 PM

#5470

Dubnjoy000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 6,079

and worse...

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09-02-2015 , 10:04 PM

#5471

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

my neck has been hurting for several days now when i failed a backflip on a trampoline

would have walked it off a few years ago, starting to feel old for real

You ever get a chair massage while playing? It can really release the tension in the neck/shoulders.

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09-02-2015 , 10:11 PM

#5472

D0UGHBOY

Self Rising

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 3,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

You ever get a chair massage while playing? It can really release the tension in the neck/shoulders.

The happy ending at the table must be awkward.

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09-03-2015 , 12:59 AM

#5473

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by D0UGHBOY

The happy ending at the table must be awkward.

I just knew someone was going to go there.

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09-03-2015 , 01:00 AM

#5474

Bergylicious

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 10

Good luck sir !

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09-03-2015 , 12:10 PM

#5475

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by D0UGHBOY

The happy ending at the table must be awkward.

Our room's massage girl is a cop by day job.

Spoiler:

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