Played 7 hours today, up $460.
Value of semi-bluffing:
5/T NLHE. CO opens to $35, Hero raises to $105 with 7
4
, SB calls, CO calls. Not very good reads on CO but I suspect he's opening very wide hence the light 3B. SB is a reasonable rec player, thinking 88-JJ a lot when he cold calls the 3-bet in this spot. Hero's image is tight as this is the 2nd hand I've played since sitting down an hour ago.
Flop 6
6
5
, pot $325
Checked to hero who bets $180, SB raises to $360, CO thinks for a very long time and folds, hero jams for $1300 total, SB thinks for a little bit and folds.
Without any hand equity (say with T9o) we need villain to fold ~55% of the time for our jam to be profitable compared to folding, since we win $860 ~55% of the time and lose $1100 ~45% of the time when called.
If we have a semi-bluff and say we have ~30% hand equity when called, we only need our jam to work ~20% of the time, since we net an average of 30% * $860 - 70% * $1100 = -$230 when called, and therefore lose $230 ~80% of the time, and win $860 20% of the time.