I shipped the 9 dollar gpp Saturday night for 20 and put another lineup in top 10. Only did 6 lineups too

What's your thought process behind playing Cessa tonight? Feel free to pm me if you don't want to share publicly

Nice, and right before football too







First, he's not a guy I'd normally use. Also, I think I used him in 5 or 6 lineups out of 170 tonight so it's not like he was my secret weapon or anything. The reasons are pretty simple, I didn't much like any of the pitching options tonight and I kept landing on Eickhoff, Conley, and Travis Wood as most of my double stacks were too expensive for Greinke or Quintana (not that I was crazy about those options either). I don't mind having all my eggs in 5 baskets, hell sometimes I use 1 guy (I think I was 90%+ on Kluber his last start) the problem is I don't like having all my eggs in 5 ****ty baskets that I don't really want to be using at all. So anyways the little bit of Cessa and Cotton I used were just spreading my action out a bit on a night I didn't like pitching. Decent home fav's, meh, good enough.


So of course I still manage -95%, lol, pitching was badish but it turned out focusing on Atl/Col/TB stacks WAS NOT the optimal play. Tonight was by far the most Coors exposure I've had all year, so yeah, 3-0.

I just didn't even consider cessa cause of the pitch count .

I had some tb. And not much coors exposure .

Too much eichoff and it was one of those nights where if you combined my best plays I do very good but had too many bad plays spread throughout

Things have been rolling along as I sharpen my teeth for football. Not making any money, but not losing either. I took a little shot the other night, missed that Max had been scratched (killing several hundred $ worth of lineups) expected to get crushed but actually won a little. It's been weird like that. A few top 10's and 20's sprinkled in to turn otherwise losing nights into small winners, like tonight:




When I'm running bad those 7/44,000's are 37/44,000 that don't pay enough to turn a bad day around. Took Sun and Mon off as friends from Detroit drove down for the eclipse, good times were had and the eclipse was really ****ing cool. The middle of totality was only about a 2 hour drive (next time it goes right over my house) but knowing what I know now I'd drive all night to see that again, it was incredible!


Now for the bad, I just got hit with an unexpected $9K medical bill, ouch. The timing couldn't be worse but whatever, it'll all be moot when I make $250K this fall...


I've been playing around with salaries, on FD at least, but until last night I really haven't studied Vegas or tried to come up with an actual game plan. Now I have. I ranked QB's based on price, MU, upside, usage guess, and potential stack partners (including coming back the other way). Thought I'd share.


The exact order here isn't all that important to me. Not exactly tiers, but some of the groupings are pretty tight.

1 Cousins
2 Dalton
3 Cam
4 Winston
5 Palmer
6 Wilson
7 Carr
8 Stafford
9 Ben
10 AROD
11 Mariota
12 Ryan


That's group 1, the guys I'll be using a lot. The bottom 4 are at the bottom based mostly on usage as they should be higher than most/all the others, plus Ben and Ryan could be in hand off only mode 2nd half. Stafford would be top 5 for sure if I liked any of his partners more. Cousins 1 is a bit of a contradiction as he's most easily paired with underpriced upside darling Terrelle Pryor, Pryor should be the chalkiest WR and Cousins/Pryor could well be the most popular stack, but I like it enough and it's cheap enough that I don't care. That said if Jordan Reed looks good to go I'll send a bunch of shares zagging Cousins/Reed. I guess Cam could be chalky too in that MU but he was awful last year and a lot of these guys have the shortest of memories.


Wentz is in his own lonely group. I'll have some for sure but not as much as those other guys. Wentz/Alshon/Pryor and Wentz/Ertz/Pryor will be a nice way to get some lesser owned yet still correlated Pryor shares.


So that's 13 out of 26 QB's and what's left is, gross. I started out thinking I'd have at least a small amount of most of the other guys, but now I'm thinking other than like a 1% share of Dak/Dez and 1% Eli/OBJ what's the point? This group is bad enough and generally in bad enough MU's that it's hard to justify how any of them have a big enough shot at QB1 (or even top 5) to possibly be +EV. I hedge, I hedge like a MFER, but I need at least a glimmer of upside. If something jumps out between now and kickoff it's pretty easy to add a 1 or 2% share of any of these guys w/o messing up the balance too much.


Tonight I'm doing my DST rankings along with DST K/RB correlation rankings. I'll post them later this week.

DST rankings, based on price, MU, projected ownership.


First, here's the 6 most expensive:




So I'm not going to rank these except to say that there's a lot of chalk here. Buf, Hou, Pit are all great plays but probably the chalkiest D's in order. I think Car and esp Atl are lesser plays but still good, also, lesser chalk, but still chalk. No idea where they got that Oak price as they are one of the few unplayable D's week 1 (if any D is actually unplayable). At any rate I'll have none as a road dog in a game projected to be high scoring vs an efficient QB with a ++running game isn't my bag. I'll have a lot of shares of the other 5 but I'd be surprised if I wasn't underweight the field on all of them, with the possible exception of Car.


Of the 20 remaining D's playing Sun I have 3 tiers:

Go To

Jacksonville @Hou $4100-- Good secondary, weak QB, dirt cheap. That rings a lot of bells for me. Road dog isn't ideal, but you can't have it all.

J-E-T-S jets jets jets @Buf min price $4K-- I don't really know WTF is going on in Buffalo, but I'm pretty sure they're tanking. As horrible as the Jets are going to be (and all the talk of this should lower the D % even more, even though overall team quality doesn't have much to do with D scoring) the D should actually be decent. The biggest risk is they score no points on O and Buf just runs it 50 times, but the price is right and I think there's more ceiling and floor here than the typical near min priced turd D punt.


I'll have a lot of these two. The biggest thing holding me back here will be that I like to stack with D and I don't want much if any K/RB shares on these inept offenses. and I mean I'll take a kicker on a **** offensive, but I have my limits.


Playable

Mia
Indy
Bal
Det
TB
Phi
NYG
Ten
Was
Ari
Rams
Dal
Cin

These are in order of cheapest to most expensive. Nothing really stands out but I like Mia's price at home, and Indy/Rams get to play each other. Betting against Dak on the O side of the ball, so might as well have some G-Men D shares as well. I'm gonna have a lot of shares of the chalk+ Jac/Jets but I'll sprinkle random shares of these in when it works with the cap or when I'm starting a batch of lineups with a D stack.

Unplayable

Sea @GB
GB home Sea
Chi home Atl
Cle home Pit
SF home Car


Weird to have Sea on this list esp middle of the pack on price. From what I've seen they don't project to be as good (on D), road dogs vs the best QB in the league, and ownership will still get at least a small boost due to reputation. Not interested.

SF is probably the best min priced dart throw of the bunch here as Cam is by far the most mistake prone in this group of QB's against.


Stacks

So there's a lot of potential stack plays here. I was going to post them all but that's a lot, so I'll just throw out a few of my favorites.

Buf/Shady, duh, super chalk
Hou/Miller, same
Pit/Bell, same
Car/K not so chalky, I like
Atl/K same


I'm not a Gurley fan, but LA/Gurley is kinda the nuts for week 1 (on paper at least)
Ari/DJ, ARI/K
Det/K
TB/Quiz
Ten/Murray Ten/K
Mia/Ajayi

Had a good night:




Nice timing too after this a few days ago:



I've mentioned how crazy the difference in results can be based on fractions of a point, tonight it worked in my favor as 1-3 beat me by a decent margin and 5-7 were right on my tail:



Take away a point and a half and I get 7th for $1K.

Same lineup in the smaller field $7 game:



Weird! Luckily all my $7 bros cheaped out and skipped the $9, at least with their good lineups.


Here's the lineup:





I had a few more edits to do and not much time to build my standard double stacks so I decided I wanted more deGrom and some of the better stacks I was underexposed on, like Bal. I think this was my 1 share of Chris Davis btw. These are some pretty egregious 1 offs. I don't hate any one of them but as a group I usually insist on more power but of course I was in a hurry and 3 of these bums went deep


I've been focusing on 2-4 stacks I really like to build around. I think if I picked Bal tonight (as I often do, probably more than any other team) I could have had my year making day. No worries though, I'm humming along and feeling really good about my game and my future prospects. I don't track day to day results but I've got to be up a decent amount in Aug, compared to last Aug where I got destroyed at like -50% or some ****.


I've done it both ways now and I can tell you it's a lot more fun heading into football with confidence and a smile than ulcers and crushing bitterness.

are you betting or playing preseason nfl games?

Nice hit. You were 3 feet away from a bad night btw cause high owned Gary Sanchez almost had a grand slam lol

No. Someone asked last year and this was my reasoning:


I've been thinking about it. I know it's supposed to be easy money but I really wouldn't have a clue and I don't like the idea of depending on a few blog posts. I'm getting desperate though, so maybe.





I'm getting a little impatient to start building football lineups. I figured after the 3 big injuries this weekend maybe things were kinda set until kickoff so I started cranking some out Mon. Then word that Zeke might play week 1 and this:




stopped me in my tracks. I probably wouldn't even use Zeke but I sure as hell have been using a lot of McFadden @5800.


The Cam thing kinda came out of left field, for me at least. Had no idea he wasn't 100%. I really don't know what to make of it as it doesn't sound like the typical coach just spouting nonsense, I'm taking it more seriously. I mean if he's gonna be a gimp out there I want 0%, and probably 0% Olsen as well. I'll still want a lot of exposure to that game, so I guess McCaffrey and the Kicker.


Anyways the Thur-Mon slate has some nice small stakes stuff I'll want to max so I'll be building 1000+ lineups between both sites between the Thur and Sun slates, so I'd like to get started ASAP. Hopefully we find out about Zeke tomorrow but I've got to get started either way. I also plan on playing MLB every day until kickoff Sun, this is going to be a real grind.


Couple random thoughts-


Baseball salaries need to tighten up a bit, esp at FD. The last couple days have played like no cap and that's with Sale pitching. If your top priced pitcher is 40%+ owned across the board in GPP's, your pricing might just suck!


Touts- Jesus Christ these ****ing scumbags are multiplying at an absurd rate. That is all

Are you talking about ACKSports? Last night was the first night I realized how many ppl are buying his lineups because lol Twins stack. Saw a train of like 8/9 duplicates in the $100 single and thought that was odd, then started checking stuff like the large field double-ups. They were almost 40% of the $2 double, which is 6500 entries or something. That just cannot be a #goodlook for the industry, but lol at these ****ing donks dumping duplicates into GPPs and satties--they aren't even smart enough to change 1 player.

Why trust a tout in dfs? If your lineups are that good . Keep it to yourself and you'd make way more

haha. No, no one specific, though lineup sellers do deserve a special place in tout hell. My comment was more about the deluge of absolute tout **** tweeted and re-tweeted on my feed, and I follow like 30 doods, hand picked for not selling at me. Time to cull the herd.

I did make a post on RG in the thread I assume is about your guys there (they weren't named, but gotta be them) I think my post needed more pro tips for clarity:





https://rotogrinders.com/threads/fan...2039682?page=1


Needless to say no one really gives a ****, the sites don't care, I don't think anyone from RG chimed in (I'm not going back to read that aids again) they rarely do. I doubt anyone bigger than lowly old jimmyrad had a take they were willing to put out there (though in fairness that MB is such a cesspool it's easy to miss "important" topics, and really you're just tilting at windmills anyway). Of course a lot of big names wont weigh in on anything that could upset a potential future revenue stream, lol, sad.



Football Time!

The last couple nights I've made about 100 lineups and now I feel like I've got a really good grasp on the slate. bout 900 more to go between now and Sat night, and that doesn't include 6 nights of baseball. I did take today off from MLB but that's mostly because I had a couple energy drinks and worked on football until 7am, guy's gotta sleep sometime. I'll make up for it with a long grind tonight and 12-16 hour days the rest of the week.


I'm digging lineups like this:



except for:





Last year stars and scrubs felt perfect going into kickoff, as much as I like the teams I'm cranking out with 2 or 3 of DJ/Bell/AB/Julio/Green/Evans I like the more balanced lineups even more. I mean start with Cooper/Shady/Pryor/Ertz and you can do a lot!


I'm mostly just using Ertz/Graham/Delanie with a lot less Reed. Doesn't feel like enough.


So far I haven't used any QB's not on my list above (and I removed Cam entirely, along with all his pass catchers besides McCaffrey, for now at least). Zero Colts


I'm coming up with some bizarre correlation plays that I never thought I'd use, like Hopkins/ARob.



Time to get to work.

Can only troll on RG because they don't even understand Level 0 basic **** like how rake works.

And lol at making all of those lineups by hand jfc. Do you know how to code?

Yeah, it's pretty gross. OTOH it bodes well for the future profitability of DFS, if rake doesn't go to 25% that is.


And lol at making all of those lineups by hand jfc.


It's a lot of work obviously, but I actually enjoy it, though this week is gonna be a bit much. I get a lot of ideas and see a lot of angles along the way that I don't think I'd see w/o doing it this way. I've got the time...



Do you know how to code?


No, tech savvy isn't a weapon at my disposal.



Speaking of touts; wow I listened to some DFS facing pods this weekend and in a couple cases they were totally clueless. I don't mean they "weren't as good as me" or weren't top experts, I mean I'm not sure they've ever played, lol, horrible. It kinda makes you appreciate the half way decent stuff out there.

Honestly Saul Goodman, Reshi, and Empire Maker are the best twitter follows obv not touts but funny and sharp.

Which pods are the trash? Want to know to avoid them

I don't want to start calling people out in here but I will say that even most of the "good" stuff is very basic and mostly a waste of time if you know what's up or even if you've read a few decent articles. The terrible stuff stands out as pure **** if you've ever listened to/read the sharper guys.



This Mia PPD is a major assache, turns out I had a lot of exposure. I just had to scrap about half my lineups and it totally blows my correlation grid out of the water. Also, I hope Florida is still there next week.


Other than that this week is going smoothly. I was way ahead of where I thought I'd be at this point probably because in weeks 2-16 I'd be building my first lineups today instead of Sun night.. The more lineups I build the more I realize how much I don't like this slate, too many road plays, too many elite plays in tough MU's. I mean I think it's a great week to try to hit that magic combo, and I'm going for just that, but I usually like to do that building around a value base, if that makes sense. Like if I were using just 4 QB's this week it would be Cousins, Wilson, Palmer, Dalton. No way I'm playing 25% around that group.

This is kind of disappointing on two fronts:




https://rotogrinders.com/threads/is-...season-2049069


First, I loved the site and despite the recent issues with Poker Stars I would still trust them to do it better than what we have now.

Second, Maybe I'm reading too much into it but he sure sounds pessimistic about the future on DFS.



Time to grind, probably my busiest 4 day stretch of the year. starting... now

I don't have nearly the same amount of lineups as you built, but that TB game is annoying as hell for sure-so many lineups with one of quizz/evans/parker/winston and now get to restart, uggg.

Also, I don't know if I'm understanding the Dalton love this week, I just don't see it. I agree with the other 3, just not Mr. Andy. I've got Carr ahead of him by a solid amount. I'm got Dalton in a second tier sprinkled in with small amounts Ben/Ryan and a couple of Wentz (I get the sense were going to see Wentz at the level he played at early last year).

There also seems to be a ton of middling value, as you said there isn't a stud with a good matchup other than maybe bell, but from what I'm hearing from Pitt I don't think he's going to get the touches needed. There's a handful of undervalued WR that should get a ton of targets though I'm thinking

Dalton's numbers are pretty strong with Green in the lineup. Last year was kind of a mess for the whole team but he was still decent with Green and in 2015 he was a top 5 QB, hovering around #1 late into the season before getting injured. A healthy Green, Eifert, Gio, and wild card Joe Mixon adds up to plenty of upside.


I'm not gonna fault playing Carr, I'll have a ton (but less than the 5 or 6 guys I have ahead of him), let's compare situations:


Carr's got the better MU in a vacuum (in a game that is admittedly more likely to shoot out) and the better implied total (24 to 22.75).


Dalton's a little cheaper ($300), Home (in a week with precious few home options), wont exactly be low owned, but he'll be lower than Carr, maybe as low as half as owned as Carr, as much as I like playing Cooper (who's now on the injury report, it doesn't sound serious at all, but still) I like Green even more, and Green will be lower owned than Cooper just as Dalton is lower than Carr.


Cliffs: He's cheaper, home, lower%

valid points. I looked more into Dalton's numbers, especially with Green playing. I can see the value there and you may be right. Regardless, it sounds like we both have a decent amount of both QBs-I guess I'm banking more on what you noted-the likelihood of a shootout. It's not going to happen in Cinci with Baltimore's wretched (imo) offense.

At the end of the day, I'm looking forward to Sunday to see what happens.

The wild Thur night game was a mixed bag for me. I had zero shares of Brady and nothing more than a few token shares of anyone else. I'm facing so many dead lineups now that my odds of cashing must have gone way up across the board. Unfortunately this stupid game also featured possibly the years best RB performance, the possible weekly RB 2, and the probable weekly QB 1. Zero shares isn't ideal there. I looked at a couple hundred lineups and none of them had close to the perfect start (Smith/Hunt/Gillislee or those 3 with Hill). Many had those 3 or 4 players but they also had 2+ lineup killing bums as well as obviously anyone with those combos was just jamming in everyone from the game. I mean if you've got those guys along with Gronk/Kelce and Hogan you're cashing, but you ain't 99.99%ing (w/o further absurd miracles).


I'm almost done building main slate lineups for FD, should finish tonight. I'm playing much less volume on DK so I'll only need to build around 100 there tomorrow. Baseball is probably a waste of time at this point. I'm playing every day but my volume and attention paid is wayyy down. the plan was to play until the end so I'm gonna try to stick with it, but I could pull the plug at any point.


GL this weekend to everyone playing.

After a game like last night, will you think about adjusting lineups that had thurs start times with players with higher floors to try to increase cash% that much more? I've got to guess that without having Hill in a particular lineup there's essentially 0% shot at a big cash, so wouldn't it be +EV to turn those lineups into ones just to beat those that had Brady (24% on DK) or Gronk (19%). Maybe I'm missing something obvious...

Hunt is the big problem and like 7%.


No, I'm not making any adjustments. First, I don't need to adjust to beat the vast majority of Brady teams, Chessmate! There's a lot of Gronk or Hogan 1 off's with a foot in the grave too. Also, yeah, taking down any of the GPP's I'm in got tougher, but no, I don't consider it anywhere near impossible to cash high, very high, maybe still first. I'm sure there's a lot of lineups in a very sweet spot (like just Hunt, or Smith/Hunt, or Smith/Hunt with a Gillislee and or a Hill and no more than 1 burned spot) but a HUGE chunk of the 7% Hill owners and 2% Smith owners built teams that can't win, even with their goddamned ****ing miracle. Like I said I looked at a couple hundred of the top scoring teams and every one had 2-5 dead spots to go with the pile of points.



I don't have a lot of RB fliers anyway, what am I gonna do take out Shady/Pryor for DJ/Kendall Wright?


What a crazy game though. Reminded me of the defenses in 70 O/U type college games.

Fair enough, just putting out some of my very naive thoughts lol

Yeah, that was a ridiculous game-Big12esque. didn't really expect that at all