"take your next shot when you think it's good"
Yes, this. I knew I was taking a shot Tue and felt pretty good about it at first. Then the more lineups I built the less and less confident I felt in all my "solid" or better pitching options. I try to avoid second guessing and results oriented thinking so I really can't say if I should have scaled back or not, maybe those were the most +EV lineups I've ever built? We'll never know. I've been ultra conservative with my bankroll ever since it became anything worth protecting, and that has served me well. OTOH I'd like to play $25K a week on NFL this year and winning a couple $3 GPP's isn't going to get me there by Sep. I'm not really sure what I'm rambling about here, mostly that I'll continue to pick my spots I guess.
I'm just starting my BP research so I'll start it off with the same chart I've been posting, sorted by innings pitched with my targets noted as in post 132. If I find any to add to the list or anything interesting I'll make notes below the chart as I go:
I downgraded Min to the 2X club, The rotation is a mess, the pen is maybe worse, and they're starting to get worked. I expect that to continue over the summer.
Philly's rotation is better than expected, and the pen is much better than expected. The wheels could fall off for the young starters and/or this pen at any time, but as of now they aren't really much of a target, at least with sp1-3 on the bump.
LAA- I almost moved them to 2X. The rotation is terrible, the pen has decent numbers so far, but they're being worked a lot and there's not a lot of talent there. Here's what they did yesterday:
Cin remains the worst of the worst, I've been targeting the starters regardless, but this pen has me adding shares against them pretty much every day. 1 worn out journeyman "taking one for the team" can result in 5, 6, 7 runs that wouldn't have been under normal game conditions, and getting a big piece of that can be the difference between ramen and steak for a decade.
Checking upcoming schedules now:
Arizona has started their 3rd run w/o a day off of the young season, 5/24- 6/8, 16 in a row. Lot of innings on these arms already, could get interesting into early June, esp with a long game or 2. I'm pretty sure Chaffin had a 0 ERA heading into May, now his line looks like this every time they use him, overworked maybe? hmmm. Here's today:
Cin has today off, then 2 more off days between tmrw and July 6.. nomnomnom
Col has a pretty rough schedule going forward. Today is day 3 of 16 in a row, 23 games in 24 days 6/17-7/10, 4 days off for the all star break, 33 in 34 days 7/15-8/17. I'll take the over on the current 4.12 ERA on Aug 18th, WAY OVER!
Mil has 26 in 27 days 5/24-6/19
LAD isn't a bad pen but they have a pretty brutal stretch: 63 games in 66 days 5/6-7/10. They have today off and 2 more before the ASB. The rotation is banged up and the fill ins can be worth targeting.
Cle had 13 in a row, today off, tmrw starts 20 in a row.
oh and:
Day 53
Did Not Play