Background: (Optional read)

From a young age, I was enamored with the game and happily deposited, and played from the age of 18 (legal age in my residence). Despite my best efforts, I suffered from huge tilt issues where a string of bad beats (2-3) would lead to 2-3BI spews by taking high variance and -EV plays. Eventually, I found some success in switching to PLO, beating PLO 25 and soft PLO50 games, but never anything meaningful enough to make a career out of. By 20 I stopped playing altogether and moved on with my life.
Fastforward a few years, a group of my friends and I enter a casino whilst on vacation, and while they play slots, I gravitate towards some table games, blackjack and roulette. And after torching some EV (but running hot) I notice that there is a short-hand table running at the back of the venue, a table of NLHE. I approach, enquire about the buy-in, and play some 5-10. Surprisingly, everyone seems terrible at the game, a couple of guys are wasted, there only seems to be one reg who was playing some ABC poker but most of all, everyone was tilting and berating each other. With only one session of live poker under my belt before this, I didn't know if this was normal. A couple of hours pass, I'm up a buyin and my friends want to leave as we have a busy day planned the next day from the break of dawn, I wave them away and say we'll catch up later, we all had keys to the apartment. Another three hours pass and the game breaks up. I came back the next day, and the one after. Running implausibly hot during the sessions, I inadvertently amassed a poker bankroll, albeit a relatively small one. The game I was in seemed softer than 25NL that I played before when I was younger and it led me to wonder if I was simply overestimating my abilities due to variance, or if in fact, everyone there sucked at the game. What caught me off guard most of all, was after playing 15 hours of playtime, I didn't tilt at all. I felt indifferent about coolers, indifferent about cracked aces, and indifferent about running card dead for a couple of hours. Whilst overall I ran well, before when I would play, one AA>KK could be enough to trigger the spew. After the vacation I deposited some of my roll on Pokerstars and GG Poker and proceeded to realise that I am, in fact, a fish.

Mid 2023 Results Online (All 50NL)
Site 1


Site 2


Clearly a losing player, I looked for a CFP and joined the first one I was offered, it was a loose-style contract with a very favourable profit split to me as the player

Results during CFP

Immediately I hit a 60 BI downswing at 25nl, and as much as I sucked, it was a level of variance I never imagined I would hit, after this 100k hand stretch I became conditioned to expect my sets to be stacked by larger sets, or high pocket pairs to be stacked by AA. I could never have imagined it could get so bad. I had and still have many leaks, but the average player in the pool was making much larger mistakes than me(I think). Admittedly there were a few punts here or there, but 99% of the time, if I make a play, even if it is a bad play, I make it because I think it is the right play.
The tilt issues of my youth disappeared, maybe with age, maybe with success in other areas of life, maybe because I feel no need to "prove" anything to the world by winning at the poker tables.
The generous rakeback from the site allowed me to take shots at 50NL which began going well (I even took a 100nl shot), until my results took a nosedive and I hit a 25BI downswing at 50NL.
At the same time I started playing on a second site, which is an untracked site where I have played 55k hands (you can see no. hands played, but that's about it). Up about 22BI at 50NL there.
50 NL during CFP
50 NL on the tracked site


25 NL on the tracked site


Without rakeback these results are not too impressive, even with rakeback the results are not too impressive. I have a 2.2k tourney bink (was trying to play satellites to live packages, registered the wrong one and won it).

Going Forward
Due to changes in my coach's direction in life, he dissolved the CFP, I really wish him luck with his endeavors, he's a great guy. But this leaves me to fend for my own poker progression, the strategy I adapted was very exploitative by nature, an MDA strategy based on 200nl+ samples, which works best when applied with context, i.e not just blindly betting, but factoring in the board, context, positions ect.
I have spent the past couple of weeks mostly studying RIO videos, and I think my game is at it's best. My aim is to play at least 30k hands a month in 2024, balancing my work with poker, but going heavy on the poker.

My study plan:
-3B and 4B ranges Late Position (especially as SB and BB, I think most regs do not 3B enough, and I am one of them lol)
-Go through GTOWiz Cash Course (I want a strong theoretical framework, I am ok at exploits, I think im very good at categorising players, but I dont always know how to exploit them)
- Squeezing ranges vs one RFI and cold call

My approach has been to implement gtowiz ranges pre, with small adaptations once I know player types, and play exploitative post-flop, I want to strengthen my theoretical framework and more or less apply the same strategic approach. I haven't used solvers much past preflop since there are many spots where people deviate very significantly from GTO, but I will be pushing their use in 2024 with nodelocking (I have no idea how to do this at the moment).

Since my site is untracked, I will not be able to post pretty graphs (this site is the softest I have found), but I will share HH's, ideas, questions, and anything else I learn about poker or life. I can't really say my BR since technically I still class my live winnings from the start of the year as the BR, and I am significantly "over-rolled" for the stakes I play, but I want to beat all the limits, I rather not just punt at 200nl but work my way up (50nl at the moment), knowing I am beating the stakes. I will just say, Result: $ x amount (or - x amount), rather than BR amount. I will look to post weekly or once every two weeks. Good luck at the tables!

First Update: Preparing for 2024

I've had a change of mind regarding the site to play on. To maximize my improvement, I want to play on a tracked site where I can get full stats, people say Pokerstars zoom is one of the hardest pools relative to their stakes, so I will start there. If I can beat 100NLz or 200NLz I think I will be able to beat a bunch of higher online games like 400nl or 500nl (and on untracked soft sites that I want to play on). I think this will be the quickest way to improve. Feedback welcome.

Completed this week:
Completed 3/30 GTOWiz "Lectures" from the course series.
Studied UTG vs HJ 3B/4B Ranges
BTN vs UTG 3/4B Ranges

To do:
I will update again by mid-January, I want to cover:
-10 More GTO Wiz Lectures
-Practise more 3/4B ranges (Preflop)
-Study and Drill 3B ranges after RFI and Cold Call.

Low Volume at 25NLz


Some Hands:

1) vs Maniac, wanted to induce
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 154.08 BB
SB: 83.12 BB
BB: 111.76 BB
Hero (UTG): 195.48 BB
MP: 227.76 BB
CO: 100.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2.48 BB, MP raises to 8.84 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 24 BB, MP calls 15.16 BB

Flop: (49.4 BB, 2 players) 3 5 6
Hero bets 22 BB, MP calls 22 BB

Turn: (93.4 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 38 BB, MP raises to 181.76 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 111.48 BB and is all-in

River: (392.36 BB, 2 players) J



Hand 2:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100.4 BB
Hero (SB): 241.44 BB
BB: 123.12 BB
UTG: 128.72 BB
MP: 109 BB
CO: 124.88 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A J

fold, MP raises to 2.24 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.24 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, fold, MP calls 11.76 BB, fold

Flop: (31.24 BB, 2 players) 4 J 6
Hero bets 10 BB, MP calls 10 BB

Turn: (51.24 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, MP bets 16.16 BB, Hero calls 16.16 BB

River: (83.56 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, MP bets 68.84 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 68.84 BB


I think this river call is a punt, I block a bunch of his missed draws, he can have KJ, JJ or 66 (I think it should fold), vs passive players on stats
Should I continue betting turn? For bluffs villain could have QhAx, maybe KxQh, JTs, maybe a lower pocketpair? I don't think people bluff enough and since I block AQs, ATs for the flush draw, I think this should've been a fold. I just don't know what villain reps but KJs. 7h8h?

Hand 3:
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 104.08 BB
SB: 108.4 BB
BB: 104.12 BB
UTG: 80.44 BB
MP: 100 BB
Hero (CO): 158.72 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5 5

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9.52 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 9 T 7
SB checks, Hero bets 7.88 BB, SB calls 7.88 BB

Turn: (40.76 BB, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero bets 19.48 BB, SB calls 19.48 BB

River: (79.72 BB, 2 players) T
SB checks, Hero bets 119.36 BB and is all-in, SB calls 69.04 BB and is all-in

It's quite hard for me to have bluffs here, I think 55 is better to bluff than my other options, unblock all the folds. Given the board, I think overpairs+sets would xR on the flop or xJam on the turn.
I can have all the boats and 8x, trips and can have KQs on the river. BDFD need to fold, slowplayed overpairs need to fold, Jx too Thoughts?

Results since start of blog:


I think I am getting a better feel for the pool.
I did a little study BTN vs BB SRP, I think 125% and 175% is a very effective addition to my arsenal, I did overbet before, but I have a much greater depth in knowledge of when to implement these sizings.

The pool seems to vary quite a bit, sometimes it feels like everyone is calling off anything, mostly around weekends, and weekdays everyone seems very nitty.
I am trying to focus on putting in high quality volume, i.e when I think I am playing my best, and ending sessions at around the 1hr mark as I tend to get decision fatigued around then, and start playing noticably worse.

Running a little bad, in terms of all in EV, but I think I am running well overall.

I think I go too thin in some spots, I've seen some absolutely criminal herocalls vs my bluffs, but in general it looks like population overfolds in a lot of situations. As I play more I think I will adapt more to the player tendencies.

I have learned how to use the solver to some basic level to produce heuristics thanks to the videos provided by GTOWiz, I plan on spending the rest of the month play:study 1:2 in terms of time distribution.

I want to go through more GTOWiz videos. I am playing much more aggresively now compared to my playstyle before, which has been great, it suits my personality much better and as long as I am making what I think is the best decision, rather than punting, I don't mind applying pressure with bluffs.

Compared to the other HUDless site I play on, having a HUD is nice as you can punish the nits by herofolding once you have a sample and some showdowns.

I will update again at the end of the month, will try to keep consistent play and study habits

Your approach of focusing on high-quality volume rather than just putting in a high number of hands is commendable. Decision fatigue is a real factor, and knowing when to end your session to maintain peak performance is key to long-term success.

Experimenting with different bet sizes and being aware of the varying dynamics of the player pool, shows a thoughtful approach to the game. It's also excellent that you are incorporating solver work into your study routine. Utilizing GTOWiz videos and continuing to work on your understanding of theoretical concepts will undoubtedly contribute to your overall skill development.

Keep monitoring your results, adjusting your strategies, and refining your game. Your willingness to learn, adapt, and apply new concepts bodes well for your poker journey. Best of luck, and I look forward to hearing about your progress!

in, gl

Thanks! I have a bunch of fun hands tagged to share at the end of the month, so stay tuned

Ty!

I played a lot of hands...
One thing I never mentioned when I started this thread is that I tend to start obsessing over things I enjoy.

Since start of thread:



I think I have been running pretty well overall, some swings, ran terribly for a stretch, preflop all-in setups, some bad plays, running into the nutted part of villains range, ect.
Did some study on BB preflop ranges, which I think I was lacking a bit, especially BvB.
BvB as SB in SRP's is where I want to study next, I think I leak a lot here.
Apart from this, as I build samples, and tag players, I have started going max exploit in some spots.
It's good on one hand as I think some of my exploits work well, but it also means that I take a fair amount of unorthodox lines.

Hero calls:

1) Had reason to think this guy would overbluff due to large 3B%, large part of his range is air, and villain is aggro

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 136.48 BB
SB: 103.04 BB
BB: 163 BB
UTG: 178.48 BB
Hero (MP): 124.24 BB
CO: 46.28 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, BTN raises to 7.56 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.08 BB

Flop: (16.52 BB, 2 players) 6 6 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 5.2 BB, Hero calls 5.2 BB

Turn: (26.92 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets 33.44 BB, Hero calls 33.44 BB

River: (93.8 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN bets 90.28 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 78.04 BB and is all-in



2) This might be a bit disrespectful..
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 99.4 BB
SB: 67.92 BB
BB: 53.96 BB
UTG: 203.56 BB
Hero (MP): 404.52 BB
CO: 113.24 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8 9

fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, CO raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.52 BB

Flop: (17.4 BB, 2 players) 8 J 2
Hero checks, CO bets 5.48 BB, Hero calls 5.48 BB

Turn: (28.36 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, CO bets 20.32 BB, Hero calls 20.32 BB

River: (69 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, CO bets 79.44 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 79.44 BB



3) It doesn't always work, I think I can fold here, I know now villain is a nit

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 123.44 BB
Hero (SB): 311.44 BB
BB: 59 BB
UTG: 164.36 BB
MP: 101.4 BB
CO: 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.48 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, BTN raises to 24 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

Flop: (49 BB, 2 players) 8 J T
Hero checks, BTN bets 11.72 BB, Hero calls 11.72 BB

Turn: (72.44 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 87.72 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 87.72 BB

River: (247.88 BB, 2 players) 9

Players agreed to run it twice.

River #2: (247.88 BB, 2 players) 7



4) Villain is unknown, no sample, I think I have to call without the heart, I lose to sets, QQ, some AA. If villain can have semi-bluffs, or overplayed AT, I think it's fine. Kinda tough to know until I build a sample.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102 BB
Hero (SB): 179.2 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 41.28 BB
MP: 89.08 BB
CO: 121.96 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, CO calls 9 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 5 T 7
Hero bets 11 BB, CO calls 11 BB

Turn: (45 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 28 BB, CO raises to 99.96 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 71.96 BB

River: (244.92 BB, 2 players) 7



5) Maybe I should xC river? Used the full timebank on this, can they turn AK with a spade, or QK into a bluff?
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 80.16 BB
SB: 274.72 BB
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 248.52 BB
MP: 56.48 BB
CO: 338.12 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T T

Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, CO raises to 8 BB, fold, SB calls 7.6 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.52 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 3 players) Q K J
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 19.32 BB, fold, Hero calls 19.32 BB

Turn: (63.64 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (63.64 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 20.04 BB, CO raises to 80.56 BB, Hero calls 60.52 BB



6) I didnt believe him

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 328.2 BB
SB: 178.88 BB
BB: 205.52 BB
UTG: 101.4 BB
Hero (MP): 119.56 BB
CO: 109.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T 9

fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, BTN raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.52 BB

Flop: (17.4 BB, 2 players) 8 9 A
Hero checks, BTN bets 9.32 BB, Hero calls 9.32 BB

Turn: (36.04 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (36.04 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 63 BB, Hero calls 63 BB




I've been playing a lot, I feel like I am beating the pool, but only time and sample will tell.
I wanna sharpen up some spots preflop, like;
-CO vs BTN 3Bet
-SB vs BTN
-SB vs BB 3Bet
-SB vs BB SRP, build some flop and turn heuristics from solver
-BTN vs BB on some different textures, flop and turn play
-BB river call efficiency (this is a big leak)

I will play some more tomorrow with a few tweaks to my game in mind, try to time the fish-heavy weekend pool, then focus on some study with much less play (1 short session a day to stay in good poker form and implement what I learn).

I still think shorter sessions I play better, the first 20 minutes into a session I tend to make quite a lot of mistakes, then from there for about an hour, maybe an hour and a half, I get in the zone and tend to play much better, then I start getting fatigued, but by forcing myself to play mega-sessions, I know think I can get to a place, gradually, where I can play well for hours at a time.
I think it all starts will drilling preflop well so that this part of the game is pretty much autopilot apart from attacking obvious leaks.
I think most edge is postflop regardless.

I will leave you with this fun one;

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 217.16 BB
SB: 120.56 BB
BB: 182.84 BB
UTG: 214.32 BB
MP: 144.12 BB
CO: 119.88 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q A

UTG raises to 2.48 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9.92 BB, fold, BB calls 8.92 BB, fold

Flop: (22.72 BB, 2 players) 2 8 A
BB checks, Hero bets 10.84 BB, BB calls 10.84 BB

Turn: (44.4 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 31.8 BB, BB calls 31.8 BB

River: (108 BB, 2 players) 8
BB checks, Hero bets 25.76 BB, BB raises to 130.28 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 104.52 BB



Gotta timebank to induce the snapjam.

End of January 2024 Update:

The graph:


Always nice to end the month on a downswing

A lot of volume, but to be honest, a lot of C-game.
I have ran pretty bad compared to earlier in the sample, but I think my play deteriorated in the last hands I played, quite a bit of autopilot, snap-decision making and not thoughtful consideration of my options.
I also think I ran bad in terms of running into spots I'm less confident in, tough spots in 4bp's.

Things I did well this month:
- Good amount of volume
- Took advantage of the rakeback challenges ps had before they removed them, no more 40% rb
- Did a decent amount of study
- Improved by SB steal vs BB

Things to improve for next month and going forward:
- I am still not studying enough, my game is not good enough to just grind, I might be a small winner, like 3bb, but realistically if I want to be a tough opponent at higher stakes, I still need to study at LEAST 1:1. 80 hours of studying will improve my game a lot more than 80 hours of playing over the next month.
- Did not review hands at the end of sessions enough.

Goals for February:
- Study preflop spots:
BB 3B vs SB open is too low
BB 3B and call range vs BTN RFI is too low for both
SB vs HJ/CO open and BTN flat
- Simplify more flop textures, build more heuristics BTN vs BB SRP
- Develop a BB leading range in SRP's.
- Go through more GTOwiz videos (10/30, but did watch some other videos)
- Learn how to use Hand2Note (If anyone can help me find good resources on this, please let me know)
- Build some pool specific exploits with Hand2Note
- Learn how to win AK vs JJ flips, maybe watch some mtt player strategy videos, do I dance before the flip? Do I manifest an A-High board? Maybe I rub the pokerstars table on screen for good luck?

This is a large amount of work to accomplish in a month, so some tasks may take longer than one month; but this is more or less everything I want to accomplish in the immediate future.
I just need to make sure I am disciplined enough to do this. I think it is unlikely that I will be able to get in this much volume next month due to work, but I will aim for 35k hands.

Getting started
Video courses

sick volume

unfortunate last 3k hands. good volume & A game is super hard to do

what stats are you running? and what does redline look like etc?

Yeah that sucked a lot lol, I think there were 3-4 avoidable losses where I paid off nits, I think I give too much credit to people being able to have bluffs in certain spots where it's just 90% nuts or more.

I am not sure exactly what stats you want, I will show them some different ones. I am a redliner, so very healthy redline, I like taking marginal spots as the most aggressive action more often as I think the average player is weak.



Not sure exactly which stats you were looking for, but here are some interesting ones, using HM3 river call efficiency I am about breakeven overall, looks like I overcall on the BB on river, but also small sample so could be some variance. I am reviewing my river calls at the moment. My call R and WSD is a bit low, but generally especially vs small bets or pot bets on river, pot odds dictate a call.
I still don't think I am 3betting enough in some spots, but this is much improved, I had a 7.2% or something 3-4 months ago, I was a proper nit.
If you'd like to see other stats let me know, I don't want to share too many though as I don't really want to be recognised by someone in the player pool.

WWSF seems high but until they start adjusting I'll just keep taking those spots.

All good

I'm with you on the river calls. Often they will be sized where we must call, but population is underbluffing rivers hugely.

WWSF & Cbet flop can be ramped up to the max from my experience, in general villains play super weak.

I need to increase my 3bet from BB I think, I get lazy and call a bit too much.

I would say 3betting IP from BTN & CO absolutely prints, coupled with cbetting it

Yeah in regards to river calls, I wanna do some MDA stuff for the pool with H2N to see where it is bad(i.e no bluffs), and then massively overfold those spots. If I know it is bad with data, I think I will be able to execute it. It's just tough to overfold when I don't see something concrete. I can always come up with hands they might bluff, but I dont think enough people turn pairs into bluffs, checking 90% of marginal showdown hands.

And yeah, people especially on zoom, people play super passive fairly often, you can get away with a lot of aggression.
I like to have some decent flop X backs IP too as some player types massively overstab, like 90% range small size on turn OOP and high frequency barrel river.
Vs those regs (some aggrofish too) having something to call with let's them bluff with like 70% air range.

I think the flop X backs are good to have vs regs, as they should be attacking checks in general vs pool

One thing I'm currently not decided on is using 1/3 vs bigger size Cbets in SRP. In general vs standard weak/passive, I feel sometimes 1/3 incentivises them to call wider & add x/r in, it's like they see 1/3 as a BS bet, that we're weak and some will just throw in a FU x/r as well. Whereas larger sizing normally gets max folds and you can x back turn always, then bluff rivers vs a check. Nobody is x/r vs larger size without very strong hands. I honestly think a large amount fold anything other than top pair & good draws vs larger sizing. Which means we print, as usually we're missing flops.

Interested to know how you are finding it?

Yeah I for a long time did 1/3 as standard, but I think you miss some EV vs certain player types by not going larger, there are also some boards where you want to B125% or check, like this one:


I am trying to incorporate some of these lines, but its tough to use them until you know how to play turns and rivers well. I like B175% and B125% turn as I think people suck (me included) and defending vs these.

If you take for example A-high - Broadway - Low boards, you do significant overbets on the solver. I think you can simplify to overbet or check on those textures.


In practise I think this is something no-one is doing on my stakes, I saw one guy do this 6 months ago on GG when I played some there, I thought he was a fish, turns out I was the fish lol.
Standard 1/3 bet is probably fine in terms of EV since EV is close on all sizes on flop, but I think most population has started defending well vs these bets, I think even some regs overcall vs 50% xR to 1/3 pot bet IP.

I am working on my flop strategy atm, people say EV is similar between all options, but I think if you can study how to play big pots and overbets well on all streets, you can force many players to make mistakes as you are taking them down into a node they don't know how to deal with, they will either overfold, or overcall, and I think you'll be able to print.

At higher stakes people may play it right, but I've never seen a player B125 flop BTN vs BB at 25nl or 50nl.

This is more for IP in SRP.

If you look at OOP, what I've been looking at for some regs who stab turn OOP wide facing X-X flop,
If you nodelock (as a toy game, I havent spent much time on this example) someone who B 33% 80% of the time, i.e stab turn 80% (which some regs do), you should be calling super wide, like 80%

There is 0% chance that population at my stakes is doing that, vs nits I like this exploit, even if you get raised sometimes, I dont think it matters, they will be chronically underdefending. Even if it's 60% of their range they defend, you still print.

If they start raising small bets IP after X-X flop, say IP has these stats on the turn, raising your turn stab 8%:

You should be able to just raise them large very often and fold rarely. Few balance their flop X back range well enough in later positions.


I went on a bit of a tangent here, and take what I say with a grain of salt since I am new to solvers, but my main ideas are that;
-I am not a fan of simplifying all textures when IP in SRP to 1/3 or check. I like to mix, even if my execution is worse with a more complex strategy, overtime I think you gain EV.
-I think people should never raise your 1/3 pot turn stab if you have 80% stab but they do. And iff they do you can raise a lot. Vs people who stab a lot on turn, I think calling turn and most rivers is good as I think they overbluff this node, I will have MDA on this soon to see if im right. (Especially late positions)
-Turn B33% OOP on X-X flop seems an effective exploit since population at these stakes are unlikely to defend enough, but I don't know if it's better than general GTO that uses large overbets too
-On textures that benefit you anyway, like; Ace, Broadway, Low, I don't think people are check raise apart from strong hands, so I think solver overbet strategy is even better since you can get a lot of value forcing their weak Ax to call flop and turn with large sizing, and you can fold a lot of their weak pairs ect out with the air portion of your range.

Great post, thanks for taking the time to go into that

Mid February Update:
Took a week off due to burnout, and have been mostly just studying this week.
I've played like 1.2k hands this month so far so not much point posting a graph.
I aim to continue to improve my game, and hope that the work will pay dividends next month when I will try to focus more on volume.
Working against some accumulated tilt during this downswing, just feels like I "deserve" more, but this is a very bad way to approach the game since nothing is owed. Personifying a game of probability like this is not logical yet it is how I feel.
I will probably just keep studying until I cool off and also switch to reg tables for a bit to decrease variance.

You still have a winrate after a downswing and playing C game, so you can take positives from that as well as negatives

The 25 zoom pool is a strange one.

I think coupled with the fact it’s 2.5x the amount of 10z, hitting a downswing at 25 can get pretty tilting

Hey, it's not so much this particular downswing, its more like accumulated tilt of not being where I want to be in poker since coming back to it. I've played 350k hands overall, and I cannot say that I'm at the stakes I want to be at.
I've havent played 10nlz, 25nl is the lowest I've played. With mixed results at NL50.
It's a pretty unhealthy way to approach the game hence the break from actually playing.
But I'm still trying to put effort into getting better.

21/02/24 Update
Managed to get some volume in, mostly reg tables.


An interesting hand:
1) AA vs mostly set heavy range?
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 108.6 BB
BTN: 115.92 BB
SB: 128.4 BB
BB: 264.08 BB
UTG: 117.96 BB
Hero (MP): 140.84 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BTN calls 9 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB

Flop: (28.4 BB, 3 players) J 8 5
UTG checks, Hero bets 8.96 BB, BTN calls 8.96 BB, UTG raises to 26 BB, Hero calls 17.04 BB, fold

Turn: (89.36 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG bets 82.96 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 82.96 BB

River: (255.28 BB, 2 players) 2



Vs 30/19/11 fish. I think I can fold KK and worse here. But with AA, he can also have KK and QQ imo, maybe some AJs, some KJs although probably less likely. Multiway I doubt he spews 99 or T9s, however it is possible that he does some of the time.
On the turn, 99 gets there, and some QTs if he has it in his range. Having the A of diamonds is not ideal , since he might have some AXdd but I think this is very unlikely to raise the flop given his range.
Given he has 9 combos of sets, and that I think its unlikely he will have KK and QQ pure, (i.e some of the 12 combos he re-raises), should I stack off here? I think I kinda have to as I beat some value, if he has some AJ ect, I don't need many combos or for it to be high frequency to stack off. I think I can fold KK and worse.
Vs nits I think I can fold, but against this guy I don't think I can.
Thoughts?

I agree, very set heavy. JJ and 88 are 6 combos, not sure if we want to count all combos of 55, so maybe 8 value combos?
I don't believe 99 would ever c/r this flop but T9s for sure could. I could see AJs check/raising. Regarding KK and QQ, I very seldom see anyone only flatting KK here, QQ maybe.

In the end you only need to be good ~33%, meaning that we need to find 4 combos out of the ones discussed: AJs, T9s, KK, QQ and I think we can.

Hey, I don't think many players will have KK and QQ in this spot, maybe some QQ as you said, however I have seen this player cold call KK pre OOP vs a 3bet, and so that's why I added some combos to his range.
I mostly agree with your analysis, I just added some 99 since I think he could do a fishy merge on the flop, at least some of the time.

There might be some fishy merge raises like 99 there, but then you'd need to add TT as well, which they may continue betting OTT with the OESD.

I wanted to do some analysis, thought I'd share it here as well, all thoughts are appreciated!

Hand 1 - BvB button clicking vs fish

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

CO: 125.44 BB
BTN: 109.16 BB
SB: 106.4 BB
Hero (BB): 239.8 BB
UTG: 186.48 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K 9

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 2 9 3
SB checks, Hero bets 2.88 BB, SB raises to 5.76 BB, Hero calls 2.88 BB

Turn: (17.52 BB, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero bets 11.8 BB, SB raises to 31.96 BB, Hero calls 20.16 BB

River: (81.44 BB, 2 players) K
SB checks, Hero bets 7.76 BB, SB raises to 65.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 57.92 BB



K9o mostly calls BvB, which is what I rolled.

FLOP: We get a dry board 932tt, vs a check, I think I have a fairly standard value bet, I think villain will call most A highs, flush draws, oesd's, gutshots, some backdoor type hands and worse 9's. I think I can size up exploitively.

We get a fishy min raise, I now think villain has a lot of underpairs to the 9, some 2x, 3x, maybe some weak flush draws? I think fd's would raise larger. I think this is mostly a weak single pair heavy range, some pocket pairs.
Something like this:

I think he likely goes bigger with a more nutted type hand i.e AA or KK, fish often like to fastplay these post, or at least raise 3x when xR'ing.

Turn sizing is quite big, we are BvB with wide ranges, I want to charge any Ax with a club, or low pocket pair with a dominated flush draw. so I go for a more polar B75.
Pretty much a nightmare scenario when villain goes for a double xR.
It's tough to range fish, but I don't think he would minraise that many flush draws on flop, but given the turn raise, I think he must be more flush heavy.
Apart from flushes, which I have a pretty good blocker for, I think villain will have more weak value(merged range) with a lot of potential bluffs, a lot of pair + A high fd, maybe some underpairs with a club.

River I get 2pr, and villain checks pretty quickly. Imo, this is less likely to be a flush from fish, as I would expect him to pretty much be jamming 100% on the river. I bet 10% for thin value if he has a pair, but also to induce from hands with a club, maybe he turns TT, JTcx with a club into a bluff, if he has Ac X on the turn, maybe he jams on a small bet. He has some flushes, but maybe he can overplay some Kx he was bluffing on earlier streets with as well. I think jamming doesn't serve much purpose since I only really get worse 2pr to call or better, I guess AA too and sometimes QQ-TT.
All in all I like my play, but maybe I'm missing something?