finally someone that can play poker.

I dunno he sounds like a microstaker to me

This is awesome

Easy Game.

looks like hes a 2/5 live reg. maybe you should get a refund on your solver.

2/5 live is pretty much micro

Wait until his ride breaks down and costs $1k+ to repair.
Wait until the gf wants to take a trip somewhere.
Wait until he starts reporting the number that really matters: what’s left in his roll, not the poker profit number.
Wait until the gf and OP realize neither can cook
Wait until the downswing happens


OP you really overestimate your ability and as a result, grossly underestimate your risk of ruin. And you clearly don’t have the discipline to rein yourself back in when things go sideways.




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OP is a seasoned grinder that understands all facets of the game [ ]

OP listens to solid advice from his peers [ ]

OP practices sound BRM [ ]

OP is prepared for the inevitable variance and downswings [ ]

OP is drawing dead [ X ]

I don't actually think OP is drawing dead. I think he has about a 10% chance of going on a sufficient heater before the inevitable huge downswing to stay in the game. If that happens, he has a small but measurable chance of being brought to his senses by the downswing.

OP is not awful at poker, though I think he has some pretty serious FPS. It is his BR and mental discipline that makes him about 95% to go busto IMO. In all seriousness, I hope it works out for him.

The folds you have to make at 1/3

Hand 1:

$1/$3, 5-handed. OMC is sitting on a stack of somewhere between $170 and $200. This guy had previously raised 88 UTG but I've never seen him 3bet yet.

Hero is dealt QQ in CO

UTG folds
Hero raises $15
BTN folds
OMC slams down a pile of chips which works out to be $88 - roughly half his stack
BB folds
Hero ???

As sick as it sounds, even 5-handed and only ~60bbs deep, I believe we can actually find a fold here.

As played, I jammed and OMC called with KK.

Hand 2:

$1/$3, 9-handed, $180 effective.

Hero is dealt ATo in HJ

2 limpers
Hero raises $25 (I normally go $21 here but I sized it up because this table seemed super loose-passive)
4 callers

Flop ($114, 5ways) is A63r

3 checks
Hero bets $55
Old man raises to $110 BTN
2 folds
MP jams $160
Hero ???

This one we folded pretty quickly. MP showed 33 (bottom set) and old man called and mucked at showdown, but I assume he could beat my AT.

Betting that flop is incinerating money.

I probably sized too big on the flop. Perhaps $35 is more optimal. But I think that there's definitely value to be had from betting AT+ here.

Fold pre.

In the Lojack, I'd fold ATo pre. But this hand is the very bottom of my Hijack opening range. Whilst it's not a mistake to fold pre, I don't think it's a mistake to open either.

Except you don't have AT+, you have AT.

???

If the range of hands that I'm value betting on the flop is AT or better, and I have AT, then that's a value bet. It might be the very bottom of my value betting range, but it's still just within that range.

You don't and shouldnt include AT in your range and you also don't have to play your entire continuing range the same way. This is live casino poker not a classroom or trying to construct the real life Libratus.

There's value to be had in betting AT+ but not in betting AT. DUCY?

AT is close, it's not a fistpump value bet, but there are a decent number of weaker Ax hands in their range, and occasionally some 77-KK hands will get sticky too. Some straight draws too like 75, 74 and 54. Perhaps some double backdoor draws call too, like QT with a BDFD or 6x with a BDFD. So I think we can justify a bet here.

It's okay to check too. I wouldn't fault a check OTF. But I don't believe that betting is a mistake either, particularly against loose-passive players. In fact, I think that betting is slightly higher EV than checking against these players, although I could've sized down.

Don't forget pure floats and people who misread their cards... I'm joking, the ranges you are assigning villains for continuing is way too wide in an 8x opened pot.

20 mins before this hand was posted, I raised AJo pre to 5x then triple barreled a J7396 board. By the river, the pot is over $500 and my opponent flips over TT.

Trust me, people can and will call a flop bet with a pair + BDFD in these games.

OP back to crushing OMCs at 1/3 I see. Got to jam those queens dude. He might shoe up with jacks. Right?

Variance can be worse than you ever thought possible. Top winning players can go on breakeven/slightly winning streaks for periods of 100-200k hands easily, even with excellent mental games. Variance calculators show how brutal variance is, but dont even paint an accurate picture as it doesn't account for human emotion causing even worse variance during the bad times.

Now imagine an average live reg playing 30 hands an hour with a poor mental game. If you pursue this long-term I guarantee you will be floored at how brutal this game can be.

Nah, just jam QQ over an OMC 3bet, print money.

Easy game.

Schroedinger's TwoPlusTwo

Welcome to 2p2: the forum where bluffing is "lighting money on fire because people never ever fold", but value betting top pair is "way too thin, you're never getting 3 streets of value from this hand".

Your opponent's hand is simultaneously too weak to call a value bet, but too strong to fold to a bluff bet.

So he had a backdoor flush with his pair of tens?