Yeah I've watched a few of his vlogs. He seems like a fish though. I'd rather watch someone who's at least somewhat decent at poker, like Andrew Neeme, Brad Owen, Matt Vaughan or JohnnieVibes.

He's a winning player with the $50/hr win rate you're looking for.

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He's definitely not a $50/hr winner. He's probably somewhere between breakeven and a $20/hr winner.

Look at the way he analyses hands. He uses terms like "active player" because he doesn't know how to fit people into TAG/LAG/SLAG/LP/TP/maniac/OMC categories. He never goes into much detail about ranges or percentages either. He thinks in a very simplistic way and he misses some opportunities to make creative exploitative plays.

Damn. Back in the 2/5 streets already . . . .

His vlog is more for entertainment than deep analysis. He addressed that on a stream session. He posts his goal progress with his hourly and he's maintained 50ish for the entire year he's been vlogging.

Anyway, my point was, he's a good example of how to safely and effectively grow your roll, which is what you should be concentrating on while you're playing for suplimental or you main source of income.

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Totally unsurprising that OP thinks a solid winning grinder is a fish.

This could've been a great triple barrel spot

Ended the 2/5 session $193 up. Would've been nice if I didn't lose that $1650 pot though.

Here's a hand which I think I played okay, but I think I might've been able to extract a lot more value by going for a triple barrel instead:

Villain (UTG) - Young Asian talkative reg. Tends to play TAG most of the time, but has a habit of calling down too loosely postflop. $500.

Hero (CO) - LAG image. $500.

2 limpers
Hero raises $30 CO with QJo
Villain calls $30 UTG

Flop ($65, HU) is Qs Th 5d

Villain checks
Hero bets $40
Villain calls $40

Turn ($137) is Qs Th 5d 6s

Villain checks
Hero checks

River ($137) is Qs Th 5d 6s 7c

Villain checks
Hero bets $100
Villain calls $100
We show our hand and villain mucks.

I wish I'd gone for a triple barrel here. I'm sure that he would've been dying to hero me off with any 1pr hand. Oh well, lesson learnt for next time.

Yearly live poker profit: +$12,567

Pretty epic to be honest. But as you say, with OP clearly suffering from fancy play syndrome and entitlement tilt/overvalueing his own skills its not surprising that he stamps solid grinders as fish.In fact, this is extremely similar to what i see from upcoming young guns in my playerpool. They have these totally delusional thoughts about who is really the winning players in our underground club,and they put weight into all the wrong things.Young unexperienced spazzy lags gets talked about alot(breakeven or clearly losing players in the games), and the new upcoming guys quickly gets brainwashed into believing they are the big winners in the games.

Solid grinders like myself and my friend, who barely makes any big mistakes, never tilt away money, plays rock solid poker based on strong fundamentals during hundreds uppon hundreds of hours, and is exploiting everyone without they ever understand whats happenning gets pretty much zero appriciation. We are never quitting early,we always plays all night until the game breaks, we never run out of cash/reloads like the other guys in the game, we are never broke- we show up at nearly every game 3 times a week. Heck, we nearly wiped out the games for 1 month last year because all the fishes went busto for a good while losing too much to us.Still its like they simply cant manage to wrap their head around who the big winners really is, its truly fascinating.

Winning poker at LLSNL can often be viewed as boring poker, and the glossy laggy action narrative/picture in their head that the young guys have of a winning player doesent compute to what is the true reality. That is where the car crash occurs between the fantasies in their head and reality. Most people prefer to continue to live in their own self created reality, because its too painful to adjust and realize they were wrong on so many levels when it comes to what winning poker consists of, and what a longterm winning player often is.

Also once more as pr usual reciepe in this thread, OP is smoothly jumping over the variance/downswing discussion recently, and Garicks excellent destruction of his delusional thoughts about that topic. This has been OPs emo during this entire thread.

My response to this is:

1) I believe that I'm capable of making 30+bb/100 at the 1/3 and 2/5 games, so that lowers my potential downswings.

2) Even though I play a LAG style, my opponents are quite passive, meaning I have a lot of control over the variance of the game.

3) Given both of the above, my risk of ruin should clearly be under 10% if I have 20+ buyins for the stake I play, even if I move up in stakes aggressively.

4) I was actually doing a stats major as part of my BSci in first year uni. We didn't learn about poker variance though, hence why I use an online calculator, but I do have a decent understanding of variance as a concept.

5) The highest game that runs frequently at my casino is the 5/5/10, so like I said in a previous post, there's basically a cap on how bad my shot taking can get. It's not like there's a $25/$50 game running where I could drop 20k in a night. People have this idea that I'm going to jump up to super high stakes and go busto, but those super high stakes don't even exist at my casino very often.

Based on what, your feels?

LOL

It's like I'm talking to someone who has never played poker beyond dicking around in the casino for a few hundred hours. Haven't you ever played online, racked up 100K hands? No way you can be this delusional.

Possibly but neither of the above is true.

You probably should have checked the bit about gathering accurate data and then analysing it without bias.

$300 buy ins can break your roll in a bad run, doubly so since you have zero liferoll so it's not safe from life downswings. $1K buyins obviously can do so. But since your 'shot taking' is really just you being a degen, no there is no limit at all on what you can do in the way of pissing away your money. There's no cap on degeneracy.

30bb/100 is like 10bb/hour live it’s not outrageous

10 BB/pr hour is not an easy achieveable winrate in todays live environment by any means.

Dont let yourself get fooled if people going on monsterheaters for 200-300 hours telling you otherwise.

Nothing at all that OP have shown us about his skills dictates that he is capable of having such a winrate at this point over a meaningful samplesize. Its the oposite: he is displaying several huge leaks like for example tilting away alot of money when losing his mental shyt, and bluffing too much/ executing fancy play syndrome playing 1/3. Combine this with his very limited amount of experience in livegames, and i would guess his realistic winrate at this point is not even close to 10 BB/hour.

This thread really makes me want to take a trip to Australia.

Whats the best time to visit op? Any tips for touristy things I could do on like a 5 day trip?

I haven't read the whole thread so I'm not sure how good OP is at poker, from the last few hands I've seen it does feel like his sizings are off a little bit and well the T9s turn call was sort of a disaster

regarding your QJo OP where you bet QTx check back turn brick and bet river, you can't 3 barrel this spot unless you are facing a whale, you played it fine, you could also check flop and bet turn bet river

also you need to stick to 1/3

OP,

I was just looking at the Crown website. The place looks nice. Do the comps suck for poker players? I get a ton of comps at Foxwoods and I let my wife and kid beat up my comp points and hotel offers, and never have to pay for food due to lounge access or comp points. It's a good way to let your lady enjoy some of the perks while keeping your bankroll in tact.

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qjo should have been a turn bet, river x. hate the turn x, just burning value.

Disagree, a turn check seems pretty standard.

yeah either check flop or turn in these positions

I don't think mirage has ever looked at a solver in his entire life though so he wouldn't know, he just has this unbalanced exploitative approach that most nits have

lolz at solver talk vs live ******s. Why check turn? hand is vulnerable, and lots of value to be had from betting, and you have enough bluffs to barrel with as well on that board. No idea what game your playing.

How can someone who has never tracked their results per hour think they can achieve a 10bb/hour winrate (let's all please stop with the Xbb/100 hands nonsense, that means nothing in live games, your hourly is all that matters with respect to results)? You literally have no idea what your own winrate is, let alone what a 10bb/hour winrate means. You're basically just shouting random numbers; you have probably heard and read that 10bb/hour makes you a crusher, so you automatically believe those numbers should be easily attainable for you, but without understanding your own stats you simply have no idea what you're even talking about.

you're aware that EV of betting is not really higher than EV of checking even vs live ******s right?

Yup+1. Just picking random numbers out of the blue sky, or made up based on the heater OP have been experiencing so far this year. Wich of course isnt even close to representing what the long term picture will look like.

From his posts, OP seems to be at the same level of Arcangel0, the nl5 endboss, here from p&g.

Turn check is missing tons of value. KJ/J9 OESD's, stubborn Tx, especially TX that turned a BDFD, 98 that had gutter + BDFD on the flop that turned flush draw + double-gutter etc.

If you can't profitably double barrel QJo here then don't raise it pre.