"Unknowns only 3bet KK+ and maybe AKs"

So a lot of the advice I've received on this forum has come down to people telling me that an unknown player at 2/5 NL is only going to 3bet KK+ preflop and maybe 50% combos of AKs, but no combos of AKo or QQ.

So let's work with this assumption for a little bit: if I have KK, then villain's 3betting range will contain:
- 6 combos of AA
- 1 combo of KK
- 1 combo of AKs (since the other combo flats)

Thus, when we work with this assumption: KK is a clear fold preflop when an unknown 2/5 NL player 3bets you.

Is this really what you guys are trying to tell me? Or do you want to change your assumptions just a little bit?

I would say Dluo ensuring OP avoids the highest ev games, would be the highest ev advice for Dluo. Smart dude.

Yeah I don't think I missed too much when reading the thread, there were two classics.

one time a pro at Aria 5bet jammed 200bb over my cold 4 with T9s, thought he had folding equity against JJ/QQ. This is probably true but I would usually flat these hand in position

A lot of the advice? I didn't think that was true...so I read every post itt since you lost twice with QQ. Literally *nobody* said a 3b! is always KK+. Plenty of people said that you should not assume randoms you don't have reads on are getting it in, or 4 betting with JJ or AQ. People said that, absent reads that QQ isn't generally ahead against a 4 betting range.
There will be people that will 3 bet you light. There will be people that will spew, punt and take weird lines with weird hands. If you put the hours in, you will see all sorts of weird and awful ****. Your problem will be not playing on autopilot like you do online. "Oh, I have QQ vs a 4b? It's fine to get it in for 100bb here in nl25 zone, so let's just jam in $500 here np no point in overthinking it."

But, you'd rather justify your play by arguing against things nobody said.

6b seems to take things as all or nothing. If somebody says 90%, he sees 100%. 6b, you should fix that.

I don't get why you overthink all this stuff talking about combos and 4 bet ranges. This is not online poker. this is live 1/3. value bet your big hands, and just fold when get played back at. Ez game

LOL clearly you have a reading comprehension problem.

We’ve been talking about “nits” that 3 bet 1/3 of their 100BB stack over a 4BB open all day and now you’re talking about it vs unknowns. WTF? So was he a nit or an unknown? That matters. A lot.

I’m starting to understand why you think Upswing is no good.

25nl online day + rebuilding confidence after downswing

As you probably know, I've been on a 4.2k downswing recently at LLSNL (3k at 1/3 NL then 1.2k at 2/5 NL), and whilst I'm still confident that I'm a winning player at those stakes, it's nice to take a short break after a huge losing streak.

Phil Galfond once talked about how he was winning on one particular site and losing on the other site. Logically, he knew that both sites were equally soft and he knew that neither of the games were "rigged", but it just so happened that he was upswinging on one site and downswinging on the other. He said how towards the end, he started looking back at some of his hand histories, and he found that he was actually playing better on the site where he was upswinging. This is because subconsciously, everytime he played on the site where he was downswinging, he started his sessions almost expecting to lose, and that affected his play. He had been conditioned to believe that he would have a losing session on one site and a winning session on the other. So he said that, despite the seemingly irrational mindset of avoiding putting in volume on one site when the games were just as good, sometimes even better, it was better for him psychologically to only play in the particular environment that he happened to be upswinging in. He said that it was better for him psychologically to change his environment anytime he started to go on a bad downswing, even if he was able to logically recognise that the environment wasn't actually the thing causing the variance. We need to respect and acknowledge our subconscious thought patterns.

For that reason, I think that when I happen to downswing at one particular format, I should take a break from that format for a little bit. Even though logically, I know that I can defeat a downswing through putting in more volume, the subconscious mind is still a powerful force that controls us more than we give it credit for.

Thus I will be playing only 25nl online today. I have been upswinging a lot online, and downswinging a lot live, so I can feel the subconscious force telling me to put in more volume online, at least for the near future. I do plan to return to live poker in 1-2 days though. I'm still committed to getting most of my volume in at LLSNL, but it's nice to use online as a way for me to rebuild my confidence after a horrible live downswing. This is the worst live downswing I've currently been on in my entire poker career, but I know that I'll get through it. I just need a little bit of time and a little bit of volume online, then I'll be fine.

So anyway, here's some hand histories from my quick online warmup. There'll be many more HH's to come tonight:

Hand 1: Pretty gross spot

$23 effective
Hero opens $0.60 UTG with Jh Js
CO calls $0.60
SB calls $0.60
BB calls $0.60 (only has $15 stack)

Flop ($2.40, 4ways) 8s 6d 4h

SB checks
BB donks $5
Hero calls $5
CO folds
SB calls $5

I'm already pretty uncomfortable facing a 2x overbet in a 4way pot with just a weak overpair. I called with the intention of folding if anyone else raised the flop.

Turn ($17.40, 3ways) 8s 6d 4h 4c

SB checks
BB jams $9.60
Hero rejams $17.40

I'm kind of hating life here, but I guess the 4 on the turn is one of the best cards I could ask for. I'm just praying that both players have hands like 86/55/77/87/76/65/99/TT.



Hand 2: Priced in I guess?

$25 effective
CO limps $0.25
BTN raises to $1
SB calls $1 (only $5.15 stack)
Hero calls $1 BB with J9ss
CO calls $1

Flop ($4.00, 4ways) 9d 6h 5s

SB donk jams $4.15
Hero calls $4.15
CO folds
BTN raises to $20.60
Hero folds

Again, this is pretty uncomfortable facing a slight overbet in a 4way pot with 2 players still to act behind. I had the same plan as hand 1 though: sigh call the flop, then fold if anyone else raises.



Hand 3: Might've missed value here

$26 effective
Hero raises $0.60 MP with A6ss
SB calls $0.60
BB calls $0.60

Flop ($1.80, 3ways) 5c 4c 2h

SB checks
BB donks $1
Hero calls $1
SB folds

Turn ($3.80) 5c 4c 2h 7h

BB bets $1.50
Hero calls $1.50

I thought about raising the turn here as a semibluff. I feel like villain would bet bigger for protection if he had a set or straight, so maybe I can push him off a FD or 1pr hand. Ultimately, I took the low variance route though and just called.

River ($6.80) 5c 4c 2h 7h 3d

BB bets $1.75
Hero ??? (We have $23 behind)

I really struggled in this spot. I had no idea how much to raise to. Is it an overkill to just jam here? I want to stack a 5 high straight and I also want to get hero called by weaker hands like 1pr hands. What's the best sizing to pick here?



So yeah, expect plenty more 25nl zone hands to come tonight.

So you are immediately taking a break from 2/5 after losing 2.5 stacks? Sounds like a completely professional and disciplined mind set. lul.

I really don't want to insult you or be condescending, so I'm going to suggest again to look into Upswing. Look into something. These hhs are really bad.

h1 very easy jam. guy has <100 bb and is a fish, u have an overpair, he is donking very merged doesn't matter if it's a large donk. if co/sb have better then unlucky

h2 flop is close. i would probably just fold when 2 behind. u have basically ur worse 9x here (one without a gutty, J kicker)

h3 raise flop blocking Ax hands that u don't want to fold that you will cooler on a 3

h4 don't jam unless u have reason to think guy is a whale. in this spot actually he probably is a whale so i don't mind jamming. 1p hands are folding regardless so this should not be ur target when u raise nor do i think v would play 1p like this. if you're not jamming, anything around $10 is a good size to get called by Ax.

Man, you’re a $5blind player with a high APR bankroll. Why you wasting your time at stakes 1/20th of the size, online, where people are actually trying to win? Smart time management. You live in the great OZ housing bubble. Take advantage of that ****. Not waste your time grinding vs 3rd world nits trying to eek out $25 a day like their life depends on it (because it does) Go sit your ass in the chair, grind, make good explorative folds early in hands because mistakes in NL compound and you have a wild case of FPS. Just sit there and grind. I’m big on momentum. Life poker is so slow, and I’m not the best st ha doing the beats (since I’m such a nit and might get 10-20 actual good hands / high ev spots a session. Cut ALL of the marginal **** out of your game right now. Take this **** seriously. Imagine you’re building a house, sit away and hammer good, fundamental nails. Build in your foundation. Don’t come in silly billy willy nilly shooting your nail gun around because you can literally take an eye out (lose your roll playing overly aggro / ego poker / thinking you’re online and must take every neutral spot(ask me how I know, this is actually a true story, despite it being a metaphor. You have access to some of the softest games in the world presumably. Play very tight as to win a low % of pots so you don’t get eaten by 10% cap rake. Think about the big picture. Etc etc etc. Live piker and online poker are completely different games. Accept folding when you’re ahead sometimes. Sit back and watch the hands come to you. I promise they won’t pay attention to the fact that you’ve played 3-5 hands an hour. Live poker is about making money. Period. Not proving your dick that you can GII AK and are fearless! Hope I’m making at least a tiny bit of sense.

^ easily the best advice in the thread

Fixed your post, this is what 6bet will see

But yeah in all seriousness, good advice, should deffo listen to it 6bet - but chances of that happening?

Ok this makes sense, for 100bb I don't see how this is bad then?

You've calculated the EV of calling a jam, not the EV of 4betting (or in this case an effective 4bet jam).

^ You have incorrectly calculated the EV of the play. You did not consider fold equity in the calculation. You have only considered the EV of calling a jam (its a squeeze not a jam)

I have not done a manual calculation but I downloaded an excel sheet a while ago that does these kind of calcs for me.

Lets assume what everyone is saying. Villain only goes all in with KK and AA
I think a compromise range assessment of their 3b squeeze would be 16 combos of AK, 6 combos of KK and 6 combos of AA and 1 combo of QQ.

They 3b Squeeze fold all AK and QQ (according to all the pros in the thread) so we would have 17/29 - (fold equity is 58.6%) and they defend a jam with KK and AA 12/29 (41.3%). Equity when called is 18% (QQ vs KKAA range)



Marginally +EV at 100bb

I personally think a more accurate range assessment would be 3b Squeezing with 16 combos of AK, 25% combos of AQ, all combos of JJ+
I then think the call off range would be all combos of AK and QQ+

So with my assessment this is what the EV would look like

Folds 4combos of AQ 6 combos of JJ 10/44
Calls everything else 34/44



So its marginally +EV although with my assessment its probably losing with rake.

So if everyone assumption is they only call off with KK and AA it actually incentivises 6betme to GII pre for 100bb.

Obviously the EV of jamming here is marginal but it is not as bad as what people make it out to be for 100bb. If it was 200bb I would agree that this would be lighting money on fire.

Let me know if I have made mistake in calcs but the assumptions are obviously going to change depending on what people believe. I've played in the 2/5 cash games at the crown (small sample) but I know for a fact the nit regs are going to 3b squeeze wider than what people have made out.

I did. I considered no fold equity for simplicity because of the range that 6b expressed in the post before mine where he said "QQ+/AK at a minimum". I was merely pointing out that if that's what he thinks it is, then getting all-in is bad. Obviously he can tinker around with it based on reads and his phrasing but if he wants to throw down to that range, I threw the math out there for him.

Yeah fair enough. I also agree that AK would not squeeze fold given that price.

Interesting to see how non-controversial statements like 'you're probably behind if you GII QQ in 100bb deep+ vs. a live nit' get parsed by 6bet as 'WHY ARE YOU TELLING ME I MUST FOLD KK TO 3BETS!?'

Hand 4: Not what I expected to see...

$28 effective with MP
$12.50 effective with BB
Hero opens $0.60 UTG with QQ
MP flats $0.60
CO flats $0.60
BB 3bets $2.45
Hero 4bets $5.30
MP calls $5.30
CO folds
BB 5bet jams $12.50
Hero 6bet rejams $28
MP calls $28



I'm lucky we were only 110bbs effective... I think I would literally have stacked off 300bbs pre in this spot against MP, if he 7bet backjammed $75 after flatting the initial raise and flatting the 4bet.

Hand 5: Potentially spewy

$9 effective
BTN raises $0.50
Hero 3bets $2.25 SB with A9dd
BTN 4bets $4
Hero calls $4

Flop ($8.25) Kh Th 6d

Both check

Turn ($8.25) Kh Th 6d 4h

Both check

River ($8.25) Kh Th 6d 4h 6h

Hero jams $5 effective



This is one of those hands where it feels like I did something wrong, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly what that thing was.

Hand 6: I hate this hand

$21 effective
Hero raises $0.60 MP with Tc Ts
SB calls $0.60
BB 3bets $2.65
Hero calls $2.65
SB calls $2.65

Flop ($7.95, 3ways) 7s 5s 5h

SB checks
BB bets $4.70
Hero calls $4.70
SB folds

Turn ($17.35) 7s 5s 5h 3h

SB jams $13.50

Op has huge cognitive bias issues, driven by narcissism and ego, that's assuming, of course, there is a degree of truth to this thread and it's not just a huge troll (or mix of trolling and reality, which gets my vote). I'm struggling with DLuo's part in this...his own back-story has plenty of inconsistencies in it as well.

As for the thread...another gem...wp sir.

Because the logic used to reach that statement could also be used to dictate that we should fold KK preflop to a 3bet.

If you'd instead used logic like "let's give him 100% combos of {QQ+, AK} and nothing else", then the best option would then be to flat the $160 and stack off on any flop without an Ace or King on it (since I expect an incoming Cbet from the nit's whiffed AK in a 1 SPR HU pot).

But no one told me to flat the $160 and gii on favourable flops. Everyone told me to fold instead. Which means everyone thinks that villain has very few combos of AK in his range and is more weighted towards just KK+, which means we should be folding KK in this spot too, which is ridiculous.

6b, in the TT hand where you write:
You underestimate how tight people are 3-betting preflop in this game. This is an easy fold on the turn. ofc sometimes you fold the winner but it happens. You have to put in a pretty wide range to get the 30.4% required to call here.

Regardless of results, hope you out there fighting, putting the hours in, and continue to do so.