So that +$2k session was all playing good? No running above EV?

1 good session doesn't compensate for 9 sh*tty ones.

Also, notice how I win 2k when things go my way, but I only lose $800 when everything works against me?

You lost $341 this session but in the HH posted I count $500+ lost to plays that are at best -EV at worst pure unadulterated spew...

In your sample you're still running above what I expect to be your actual winrate. You may disagree but I fully expect it to converge to 15bb/100. The only reason it is positive is because you get so many spewtards that donate stacks like when you 4bet and jam flop with KQs and an idiot manages to find a dominated hand to call off with.

You could probably manage to get 30bb/100+ in such a ridiculous game with less variance but as long as you keep playing fancy it's going to be 15bb/100.

How much EV do you think I lost in each of those hands? For example, when I called the $35 river bet with AQ, I surely didn't lose $35 in EV, because I'm going to be good some percentage of the time. Maybe I lost like $10 in EV there.

15bb/100 is like $13/hr. I'm surely making more than that.

Also, I like to use the word "exploitative" rather than "fancy". I'm willing to deviate from normal lines to pick the line that best caters towards exploiting my opponent. I'm flexible and I adjust my strategy and my ranges, depending on who I'm up against. I'll happily 4bet a maniac with KQs, but I won't 4bet an unknown with that same hand. And I'm actually pretty happy with the way I played that KQs hand. It would've been a mistake to flat the 3bet OOP imo, especially when it invites the 3rd player into the pot too.

And I am sure you think that.

I already sugarcoated it because I like to use the word "spewtarded".

Kelvis, do you think OPs actual realistic winrate at 1/3 live is $13 hour, aka around 4 bigs pr hour?

Just interested in your thoughts about what his realistic winrate is all leaks, spazz and spew taken into account.

I think he wins at 15bb/100. Depending on h/h (assume 33 per hour considering the shot clock) that's 5 bb/hour. That includes raising low equity hands UTG, 4betting KQo and stuff like that. The reason being is that in a vacuum a lot of the plays aren't losing (much), it's that they don't make the most money possible. In some instances barreling is perfectly fine, maybe slightly +EV in certain spots, but giving up and realizing equity is simply more profitable against passive fish. Like cbetting A9s on JJ8, if you can't deny equity and get looked up by 55 then what is the point in cbettign against multiple opponents. Take your equity in position and check it down.

The whole reason OP thinks it is good to employ these plays is that they are standard online (well, some plays). Online taking a route that wins 5bb/100 is amazing, but it means balancing in such a way that any mistakes made by opponents don't yield you the maximum.

Now of course if he starts jumping stakes, drinking, spazzing out and stuff like that he is breakeven at best.

Having 1 good session and 9 losing ones doesn't necessarily mean you're running bad. Has alot to do with your playing style and skill

I suppose the maniac could have T9 or even 65 depending just how nuts he is but these hands are dwarfed by random AX and pairs

3111 over 113.5 hours is 27.40/hr or roughly 10BB/HR before the split. Do you really think that's below expectation? You're averaging at least one big mistake per hour judging by these hand histories. To crush you have to play almost perfectly. And I don't mean perfectly as in always take the most +EV line, but rather never tilt, never play tired, never make more than minor mistakes or at most one modest mistake per session. Near perfect discipline and consistency. This is to crush and make a living wage, not picking up a few blinds an hour.

And why aren't you tracking your results with Poker Bankroll Tracker or similar? It's free. You keep talking about winning 10BB/HR over the past year or whatever but where is the data?

ev doesn't pay bills, buy iphones, or keep your backer happy. money does. playing responsible would keep DL happy as well. using the excuse of ev is complete garbage. play well by minimizing losses during "variance" and show DL that you can play well.

If I was your backer I would be fuming at that, not about the drinking etc, you're allowed a life outside of poker of course but the fact you decided to play while tired/hungover and thinking that you can crush it without 100% attention

When it works you can call it "exploitative" but when it fails we are going to call it "fancy" and tell you we told you so. Unless you get it right more often than not, than we'll let the occasional slip up go.

Or a little over 4 BB/hr. Given the rake structure, Kelvis is estimating that on average you're the second best player at your table. That is pretty high praise actually.

Yes it is, but OP thinks he deserves....

How about taking responsibility for your own mistakes and overly spewtard plays...? The probability of you losing 8/10 sessions given you are a great player that you claim to be is basically extremely unlikely. I’m serious. Try the math from a binomial distribution, and let’s say your probabilty of success (winning a session) is 60-66%. We can also probably safely assume that the probability of you winning after losing 1-2 decreases as well, since you’ll probably be more tilted and inclined to be more spewy. Coming from someone who studies Statistics and is going to take a Master’s in one, you have no idea what the hell you are talking about when you are talking about variance, lol “sample sizes”, EV, etc.

You’ve run so far above EV. Stop blaming your results on variance. You are making huge mistakes every single session, not even just one. I am sure you are making even more mistakes that you aren’t aware of in medium sized pots, small pots, or even pots you for whatever reason are not disclosing (i.e you dont think it’s a mistake or you just forgot). Your true hourly is not $30/hr. You’ve been playing live for what, 2-3 years? If your true hourly were $30/hr, it is very unlikely you’d be stuck at 1/3 for this long even if you spent your money recklessly as you have.

Fwiw that river call with AQo no club is completely fine, if anything it’s standard. All straight draws and flush draws busted and you only need to be right 20% of the time.

Im not saying you’re a losing player, dont get me wrong. I do think you are a winning player. And even more of a winning player when you don’t spew and make dumb plays (which is almost every session), which always ends up dragging your winrate down. You’re just not the crusher you think you are. If you actually want to succeed in poker, you need to stop being so stubborn and rewire your thinking. Stop trying to be that cool guy that runs over the table and makes genius moves/bluffs. But alas, that will never happen and you’ll stay stuck where you are indefinitely.

So you defend OP for not wanting to work part time when min wage is $20, but you're ok with him making $7.50 /hr (after the split w/ backer) on stake?

I'm all for taking a paycut to be happy, but it has to be reasonable. How is he ever supposed to feed himself? The ones telling him to work are the ones that don't want him to end up on the streets.

- OP, unlike most peeps ITT, I believe that under the right conditions (no drinking, no tilting, bood BRM), you could net 25-40$/h at 1-3. Now assuming that variance goes right (which would not be the correct way to approach your situation, but let's entertain it...) and that you manage to make 12.50-20$/h under your staking agreement for a prolong period of time, what is the plan that you have in order to save up and to be on your own eventually?

- You mentioned that your gf works in a Thai restaurant, then how come you guys are not always eating their for free/is she not constantly bringing back leftovers?

- And if you manage to go on your own, how do you plan on dealing with your impatience, tilting issues, lack of discipline and lack of bankroll management skills in order to truly make it?

The probability that OP will ever have the right conditions is 0. I do agree that if he were on his A+ game every single hour he could net $30/hr. But the fact is, no human on earth can do that and especially not 6b me who clearly has a multitude of mental leaks. So yeah, pretty moot point.

Dubn, just a reminder that OP said this earlier itt:

and

How far can he possibly be from that without DL's restrictions? Last night he played hung over. Just a matter of time until he plays drunk and plays higher than he's rolled for when he's on his own.

No, being a nit is what makes gg gg.

Indeed pretty moot observation of yours... What is important is not if 30$/h would be sustainable, but that OP asks himself the right questions about the BIGGER picture.

While I agree and I believe that 6bet will fail more often than not if we had to run this scenario 1000 times, I still rather (choose to) believe rather than not. I am at an age/maturity level where I take pleasure in seeing people succeed as oppose to witnessing a train wreck.

How was that moot? I was merely saying your point of him having a $25-$40 true winrate under right conditions is entirely moot lol. It’d never happen. That wasn’t moot at all. OP needs to understand even if he had the potential to become a great poker player/winner, he has many mentual hurdles he needs to get through. Just because my post embarrasses you for whatever reason doesn’t make it moot. We don’t need people feeding OP’s ego when he’s clearly playing poker suboptimally

Everyone has been asking him questions about the bigger picture. He just ignores the bigger picture.

I think that if you were a solid player that never tilted, was familiar with the environmental tendencies and always played your A+ game, then a win rate of $50/hr would be attainable at 1/3 NL at Crown.

Of course, you'll never see this happen because:
1) It's unrealistic to assume that someone will never tilt at all and never make any mistakes.
2) Anyone good enough to do this would be playing higher stakes.

I think once you factor in my occasional tilt and some C game plays, I can still win $30/hr. The field is very soft and you don't need to be playing perfectly to beat it.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that in my entire life, I haven't played a single session where I could look at every hand I played and think "I played every hand perfectly, all my bet sizes were spot on". The idea of an A+ session almost never exists in practice. No one just plays consistently perfectly, especially with a 10 second timer on every street at every decision point.

Now don't get me wrong: I'm not using this as an excuse to justify playing when tired or tilted. I know that it's a mistake to do that and I know that I need to cash out and go home whenever I feel like I'm not playing well (and I've done that many times already). But what I'm saying is: there will always be sessions where you subconsciously tilt in a way that's too subtle for you to recognise, and that all gets factored in to the equation.