Quote:
Originally Posted by pure_aggression
It was actually 400 to win 1500. I raise JJsc from mp, 4 calls. Flop- AJThdh I bet 65 into 100, v1 makes it 165, v2 calls, I call. Turn- 2c checks around. River- Td I bet 300 into 500. V1 announces raise and says 4 more. I saw v1 (30yo asain lady) table change twice and bought in full so I assume she is a reg and a competent player, never saw her raise light. I don't think she raises flop multiway without a straight, set, or 2p. When she checks the turn it is very unlikely she has a straight. I think I am beat slightly more than I am good so I don't think 3betting the river is worth it.
With no 3-bet preflop, AA is heavily discounted. Most LLSNL players feel the uncontrollable need to 3-bet the shtt out of their AA for fear of getting their AA cracked.
On the flip side, they will over call with JT, KQ, KT, AT, QT.
I don't think KQ/KT/QT raises you on the river, so that leaves AT and JT.
We really should have gone broke here snap shoving over the top of her raise. Majority of the time, your JJ in this spot is the nuts AINEC.
Now, if we had JT, that sucks and we could actually fold that in this spot vs a competent reg since its basically the bottom full house. But with JJ we beat the most probable JT and AT full houses like red-headed step children and really are only worried about AA but since there was no 3-bet pre we should be severely discounting AA. And I would never let my worry of quads keep me from getting max value. So this is a ship on river AINEC.
another way to think about this spot is this:
If Villain would have just shipped all-in here would you have folded your full house? If the answer is no, then what you are doing is ensuring you lose the maximum in this spot but on the flip side you aren't getting the most value when you are on the other side of the cooler and have the winning hand. That's why its important to ship it in these spots as viewed by the longterm if that makes any sense...